Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of March 03, 2013:-

Resistance



We seemed to be hitting some resistance on the S&P 500.

Can the US market make a new high in the coming weeks ?

But didnt the "experts" say that we have this risk or that risk ?

Are you so frighten now, that you dont really know what to do ?

Do you know why you are buying or selling ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$91.02 from US$93.36 last week from US$95.94 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$15.76 from US$1580 last week from US$1608 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$28.60 from US$28.70 last week from US$29.78 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 29.68

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.52 from US$3.54 last week from US$3.74 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Flat. 1518 from 1516 last week from 1519 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22880 from 22782 last week from 23445 the previous week. Sold Rexlot & Sinopec

3.. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2360 from 2314 last week from 2432 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3270 from 3288 last week from 3283 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 11606 from 11386 last week from 11174 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 93.59 from 93.41 last week from 93.52 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 94.41.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4956 from 2.5052 last week from the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0207 from 1.0313 last week from the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2657 from 1.2769 last week from 1.2749 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3028 from 1.3196 last week from 1.3364 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7546 from 7.7545 last week from 7550 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.27 from 81.44 last week from 80.46 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.79% from 4.45% last week from 4.38% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.10% from 5.15% last week from 5.19% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.84% from 1.96% last week from 2.00% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$71b from HK$66b last week from HK$52b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Unease

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Chinese Slowdown, Debt Ceiling Debates

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Cash is King or Trash ?

6. Properties - Prices still have not really come down despite all those curbs

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. Friday's US Market Direction- Flat

Can you stand the volatility now ?

Are you losing sleep because of your exposure to Equities ?

Are you willing to hold for 5 years, in case the market collapses tomorrow ?

Does the current Reward justify the current Risk ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of March 10, 2013:-

Confused ?



Didn't the "experts" on CNBC and Bloomberg, say that the market is going to crash ?

And instead, it has been grinding higher.

So are you not confused now ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$91.87 from US$91.02 last week from US$93.36 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1578 from US$1576 last week from US$1580 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver . Higher. US$28.96 from US$28.60 last week from US$28.70 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 29.68

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.52 from US$3.52 last week from US$3.54 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1551 from 1518 last week from 1516 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23092 from 22880 last week from 22782 the previous week. Bought Rexlot

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2319 from 2360 last week from 2314 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3290 from 3270 last week from 3288 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 12284 from 11606 last week from 11386 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 96.00 from 93.59 last week from 93.41 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 94.41.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4879 from 2.4956 last week from 2.5052 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0255 from 1.0207 last week from 1.0313 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.2803 from 1.2657 last week from 1.2769 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2999 from 1.3028 last week from 1.3196 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7569 from 7.7546 last week from 7.7545 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.76 from 82.27 last week from 81.44 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-on

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.60% from 4.79% last week from 4.45% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.76% from 5.10% last week from 5.15% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.04% from 1.84% last week from 1.96% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$73b from HK$71b last week from HK$66b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Chinese Slowdown, Debt Ceiling Debates

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How's your Diversification and Asset Allocation ?

6. Properties - Low interest rates are still driving demand

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. Friday's US Market Direction- Higher

What's the catalyst to drive things higher ?

Does this not look like a tired market ?

In addition, the Insiders are selling continuosly.

Do you really want to invest in this type of market ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of March 17, 2013:-

Perplexed



I do not really have anything on my watchlist.

It's too high for me to chase.

Yet not high enough to short.

So in times like this, it's better to stay on the sidelines and let the heroes go to war with each other.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$93.45 from US$91.87 last week from US$91.02 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1591 from US$1578 last week from US$1576 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver- Lower. S$28.74 from US$28.96 last week from US$28.60 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 29.68

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.52 from US$3.52 last week from US$3.52 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1561 from 1551 last from 1518 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22533 from 23092 last week from 22880 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2278 from 2319 last week from 2360 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3286 from 3290 last week from 3270 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 12561 from 12284 last week from 11606 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 95.31 from 96.00 last week from 93.59 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 94.41.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker 2.5011 from 2.4879 last week from 2.4956 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0409 from 1.0255 last week from 1.0207 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.2988 from 1.2803 last week from 1.2657 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3080 from 1.2999 last week from 1.3028 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7580 from 7.7569 last week from 7.7546 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker3 from 82.76 last week from 82.27 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-on

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat. 4.60% from 4.60% last week from 4.79% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.92% from 4.76% last week from 5.10% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.99% from 2.04% last week from 1.84% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$78b from HK$73b last week from HK$71b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - If there's a plunge in the markets, what would be your reaction ?

6. Properties - Sales are substantially down in HK & Spore

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Grinding Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of March 24, 2013:-



Disoriented

Cyprus caught a lot of people by surprise.

How can a small nation of 1.1m be able to bring the financial system down ?

Yet the market reacted as if it's going to be a Contagion again.

Hopefully, cooler heads would be able to prevail else it may be the set-up for some shorting opportunity.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$93.80 from US$93.45 last week from US $91.87 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1608 from US$1591 last week from US$1578 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - . Lower. US$28.70 from S$28.74 last week from US$28.96 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 29.68

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.47 from US$3.52 last week from US$3.52 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1557 from 1561 last week from 1551 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22115 from 22533 last week from 23092 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2328 from 2278 last week from 2319 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3259 from 3286 last week from 3290 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 12339 from 12561 last week from 12284 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 94.51 from 95.31 last week from 96.00 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 96.68

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4910 from 2.5011 last week from 2.4879 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0445 from 1.0409 last week from 1.0255 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.3052 from 1.2988 last week from 1.2803 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2987 from 1.3080 last week from 1.2999 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7637 from 7.7580 last week from 7.7569 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 82.37 from 82.76 last week from 82.27 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Mixed

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.52% from 4.60% last week from 4.60% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.86% from 4.92% last week from 4.76% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.93% from 1.99% last week from 2.04% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$70b from HK$78b last week from HK$73b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Chinese Slowdown, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Can this Cyprus incident really lead to something bigger ?

6. Properties - Interest Rates rising in HK

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Weaker


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of March 31, 2013:-



Now What ?

Now that Window Dressing is over, now what ?

Another Cyprus lurking in the dark ?

Or back to the good old debate about the deficit ?

Or how about North Korea sinking Hawaii ?

Looks like there's no shortage of gloomy news, to ensure that you continue to keep your money in cash.

But dont forget that interest rates are near zero and a lot of people are trying to get their money to work harder.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$97.23 from US$93.80 last week from US$93.45 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1597 from US$1608 last week from US$1591 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$28.31 from US$28.70 last week from S$28.74 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 26.25

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.40 from US$3.47 last week from US$3.52 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1569 from 1557 last week from 1561 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22300 from 22115 last week from 22533 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower 2237 from 2328 last week from 2278 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3308 from 3259 last week from 3286 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher 12398 from 12339 last week from 12561 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 94.24 from 94.51 last week from 95.31 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 96.68

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.4957 from 2.4910 last week from 2.5011 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0419 from 1.0445 last week from 1.0409 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2928 from 1.3052 last week from 1.2988 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2820 from 1.2987 last week from 1.3080 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7635 from 7.7637 last week from 7.7580 last week the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.97 from 82.37 last week from 82.76 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.76% from 4.52% last week from 4.60% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.06% from 4.86% last week from 4.92% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.85% from 1.93% last week from 1.99% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$65b from HK$70b last week from HK$78b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus, North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - A small thing like Cyprus ( population 1.1m ) can jolt the financial system. What about a big thing then ? Will you be able to really in run time ?

6. Properties - Sellers still have holding power. How long can they last ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Grinding Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Apr 7, 2013:-



Trading Break

This period reminds me of the time after the Asian Financial Crisis.

At that time, the market have already rebounded but the economy was still weak.

And there were not too many stocks to buy anymore.

So Cash was the place to be at that time.

It was the right strategy as 911 happened in 2001 and there were plenty of buying opprtunities thereafter.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$93.05 from US$97.23 last week from US$93.80 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1582 from US$1597 last week from US$1608 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$27.28 from US$28.31 last week from US$28.70 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 26.25

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.35 from US$3.40 last week from US$3.47 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1553 from 1569 last week from 1557 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21727 from 22300 last week from 22115 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2225 from 2237 last week from 2328 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3300 from 3308 last week from 3259 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher 12833 from 12398 last week from 12339 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 97.54 from 94.24 last week from 94.51 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 97.80

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4637 from 2.4957 last week from 2.4910 the previous week. Vested. GE is a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0388 from 1.0419 last week from 1.0445 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2892 from 1.2928 last week from 1.3052 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2999 from 1.2820 last week from 1.2987 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7648 from 7.7635 last week from 7.7637 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 82.57 from 82.97 last week from 82.37 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.38% from 4.76% last week from 4.52% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.75% from 5.06% last week from 4.86% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.71% from 1.85% last week from 1.93% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$63b from HK$65b last week from HK$70b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus, North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Can you not feel the confusion in the market ?

6. Properties - Transactions are dropping

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Mixed

Will US Earnings Season be the catalyst for the market to go higher or lower ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Apr 14, 2013:-



How high can it go ?

It's interesting to watch the market grind higher while there are so many bad news around.

However, Interest rates are still closed to zero so there's still a lot of money floating around.

But "Sell in May and Go away" is also just around the corner.

So Buy, Sell or Hold ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. S$90.66 from US$93.05 last week from US$97.23 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1476 from US$1582 last week from US$1597 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$25.76 from US$27.28 last week from US$28.31 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 26.25

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.33 from US$3.35 last week from US$3.40 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1589 from 1553 last week from 1569 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22089 from 21727 last week from 22300 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2207 from 2225 last week from 2237 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3294 from 3300 last week from 3308 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher 13485 from 12833 last week from 12398 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 98.39 from 97.54 last week from 94.24 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 99.88

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4591 from 2.4637 last week from 2.4957 the previous week. Vested. GE is a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0508 from 1.0388 last week from 1.0419 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.3001 from 1.2892 last week from 1.2928 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3103 from 1.2999 last week from 1.2820 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7621 from 7.7648 last week from 7.7635 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker 82.13 from 82.57 last week from 82.97 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.33% from 4.38% last week from 4.76% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.69% from 4.75% last week from 5.06% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 1.72% from 1.71% last week from 1.85% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$54b from HK$63b last week from HK$65b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How quickly can you react to a changing situation ?

6. Properties - It would be interesting to see whether anyone will pay Sin$300m for a house in Singapore

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Grinding Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Apr 21, 2013:-

Volatility



The US Market action has been very volatile over the past 5 days.

Out of 5 days, we have had 4 days of swings exceeding 0.7%.

Are you really that smart to be able to predict the market direction ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$88 from US$90.66 last week from US$93.05 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1407 from US$1476 last week from US$1582 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$23.23 from US$25.76 last week from US$27.28 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 26.25

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.15 from US$3.33 last week from US$3.35 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1555 from 1589 last week from 1553 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22014 from 22089 last week from 21727 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2245 from 2207 last week from 2225 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3294 from 3294 last week from 3300 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 13316 from 13485 last week from 12833 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 99.47 from 98.39 last week from 97.54 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 99.94

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4543 from 2.4591 last week from 2.4637 the previous week. Vested. GE is a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0268 from 1.0508 last week from 1.0388 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2702 from 1.3001 last week from 1.2892 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3057 from 1.3103 last week from 1.2999 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7641 from 7.7621 last week from 7.7648 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.75 from 82.13 last week from 82.57 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.22% from 4.33% last week from 4.38% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.62% from 4.69% last week from 4.75% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.70% from 1.72% last week from 1.71% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$60b from HK$54b last week from HK$63b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Did Cyprus caught you by surprise ? If yes, why do you think that you would be able to manage the next risk that will unfold ?

6. Properties - Prices are dropping in HK

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Volatile Sessions


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Apr 28, 2013:-

Sell in May and Go Away ?



It's getting close to the summer holidays.

And if you have not been making money in the markets, isn't it time to take a break ?

Or are you so afraid of losing out that you would still be trying your luck whenever the market dips ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$92.78 from US$88 last week from US$90.66 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1462 from US$1407 last week from US$1476 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$23.97 from US$23.23 last week from US$25.76 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.18 from US$3.15 last week from US$3.33 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1582 from 1555 last week from 1589 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22548 from 22014 last week from 22089 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2178 from 2245 last week from 2207 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3348 from 3294 last week from 3294 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 13884 from 13316 last week from 13485 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-on


1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 98.04 from 99.47 last week from 98.39 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 99.94

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4528 from 2.4543 last week from 2.4591 the previous week. Vested. GE is a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0275 from 1.0268 last week from 1.0508 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.2714 from 1.2702 last week from 1.3001 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3029 from 1.3057 last week from 1.3103 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7634 from 7.7641 last week from 7.7621 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker, 82.47 from 82.75 last week from 82.13 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.06% from 4.22% last week from 4.33% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.28% from 4.62% last week from 4.69% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.66% from 1.70% last week from 1.72% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$59b from HK$60b last week from HK$54b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Were you caught by the downdraft in gold ? Do you really know where are the risks out there ?

6. Properties - Will low interest rates continue to drive transactions ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Grinding Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 05, 2013:-



Calm before the storm ?

Looks like the market is grinding higher depite some poor data.

Is this the calm before the storm ?

How fast can you run when the storm arrives ?

Or would a storm be really coming since the sky is so clear ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$95.61 from US$92.78 last week from US$88 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1471 from US$1462 last week from US$1407 last week the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$24.08 from US$23.97 last week from US$23.23 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.31 from US$3.18 last week from US$3.15 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1614 from 1582 last week from 1555 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22690 from 22548 last week from 22014 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2206 from 2178 last week from 2245 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3370 from 3348 last week from 3294 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 13694 from 13884 last week from 13316 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-on

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 99.03 from 98.04 last week from 99.47 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 99.94

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.4590 from 2.4528 last week from 2.4543 the previous week. Vested. GE is a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0317 from 1.0275 last week from 1.0268 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.2731 from 1.2714 last week from 1.2702 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3115 from 1.3029 last week from 1.3057 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7589 from 7.7634 last week from 7.7641 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker, 82.12 from 82.47 last week from 82.75 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 3.82% from 4.06% last week from 4.22% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.04% from 4.28% last week from 4.62% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.74% from 1.66% last week from 1.70% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$52b from HK$59b last week from HK$60b the previous week.

2. Sentiment -Cautious

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How fast can you run in a plunge ?

6. Properties - Transactions dropping

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. US Market Direction- Grinding Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.