China - Economic Data & News 23 (Nov 25 - Dec 27)

[winston]

Don’t use GDP to judge China’s strength – look at this instead

China continues to tout its 5% GDP growth figure, but the ICOR metric reveals just how badly the nation is wasting capital

by Daniel Swift

Incremental Capital Output Ratio, or ICOR, and it measures how much additional investment is required to produce one additional unit of economic output.

When an economy is healthy, the ratio stays low. When capital is wasted — when investment flows into projects that don’t pay off, when supply chases demand that doesn’t exist, when the excess is dumped on other countries to mitigate losses — the ratio rises. China’s ICOR is rising quickly.

South Korea and Taiwan ran ICORs of 3.2 and 2.7 , respectively , during their own high-growth decades.

Using more realistic GDP growth figures from the Rhodium Group, a US-based independent research provider, which estimates China’s 2025 growth in the 2.5–3% range, the implied ICOR is between 14 and 17.

The point is that even the most generous reading of Chinese economic data shows an economy that is rapidly becoming less productive with more subsidized credit.

Source: Asia Times

https://asiatimes.com/2026/05/dont-use- ... 340db87eb1

[winston]

China's K-shaped economy to last two more years, Robin Xing says

China's economy will remain K-shaped for at least another two years, with AI- and export-led sectors staying strong while housing and consumption remain weak.

The property sector will also stay a drag, he said, adding that it could take about two more years for housing inventories in many mainland cities to return to more normal levels.

Rental yields in many cities are still below mortgage rates, limiting incentives for home purchases.

China was taking a different AI path by focusing on open-source, affordable models that can be deployed quickly by factories and small firms.

He estimated faster AI adoption could lift China's total factor productivity by more than 3.5 percentage points by 2035.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/332421/

[behappyalways]

Economic slowdown? Trade war? Xi Jinping only has eyes for a "technologically strong nation."

經濟放緩？ 貿易戰？ 習近平眼中只有「科技強國」【短篇】#TVBS文茜的財經周報 20260517

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tSbK7Sp5U1o&t=322s

[behappyalways]

"Huge Shock": China Launches Crackdown On Cross-Border Stock Selling To Block Capital Outflows
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/huge- ... l-outflows

[behappyalways]

China's industrial profits surged in April as authorities cracked down on involution, preventing capital outflows and mitigating risks.

陸4月工業利潤飆高 官方整治內捲.擋資金外流防堵風險｜秦綾謙｜FOCUS全球新聞20260528 ‪@tvbsfocus

‬https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uAa0xSXUwTI

[behappyalways]

How China Is Remaking Its Vast Western Frontier
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-c ... n-frontier

[winston]

How China’s wealthy sidestep strict rules to get money out of the country

Individuals are generally limited to transferring US$50,000 overseas each year, while emigrants are given a one-time opportunity to move their assets abroad.

Households, institutions and companies moved a record US$807 billion, roughly, out of the country last year.

Smuggling cash across the border

“Smurfing” involves recruiting people on the mainland who have not used their annual foreign-exchange quota of US$50,000.

Mirror transfers or underground banking

Inflated or fraudulent invoices

Cryptocurrency

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... ut-country

[winston]

China’s 2.2 trillion yuan pile of bad consumer debt threatens economy

The debt overhang is undermining national efforts to boost domestic consumption with Chinese banks extending fewer new loans

Bad consumer loans from credit cards to mortgages have surged over the past few years.

Non-performing household debt soared 21 per cent last year to a record of at least 2.2 trillion yuan (S$419 billion).

The estimates suggest that as much as 10.6 per cent of China’s 1.1 billion adult population were behind on debt payments at the end of 2025.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... ns-economy

[behappyalways]

China's food delivery sector feels pinch amid price cuttingーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cbLAn7UNX ... ebQw%3D%3D

[winston]

China Has 851 Million Workers, a Youth Unemployment Crisis, and an AI Dilemma. Here's Its Plan.

Beijing just released its 15th Five-Year Plan for employment and for the first time, it's titled an "Employment-First Strategy," signaling that job stability now outranks headline growth as a policy priority.

With college graduate unemployment between 35-40%, migrant workers still scarred from COVID-19 lockdowns and AI threatening mass displacement, Xi's government is in a race against the clock.

Why platform giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and Pinduoduo are the primary enforcement targets

How Beijing is trying to weaponize AI to create jobs while regulating it to prevent job destruction

Which sectors get the most favorable treatment and where foreign companies stand to benefit

Why many of these employment goals work directly against each other and what happens when they collide

The stakes are enormous: Youth unemployment and underemployment helped drive the White Paper protests of 2022 and Tiananmen in 1989.

China's working-age population is shrinking and Beijing is in uncharted regulatory territory as AI adoption outpaces its ability to manage the fallout.

For any company operating in or selling to China, this plan is the early warning system.

Source: RANE Worldview