JPY 01 (May 08 - Oct 11)

[winston]

Bring them on ! And I think the Yen will continue to go up because it will not be a "shock and awe" situation. Watching the Japan ETF and I'm holding onto the horses because they are ready to sprint ...


Japan may consider unilateral yen-selling: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Japan's Ministry of Finance may consider unilateral yen-selling market interventions if speculators drive up the currency, Nikkei Business Daily reported on Tuesday.

The yen rose to a 15-year high against the U.S. dollar and a nine-year peak versus the euro on Tuesday amid fears the global economy is slowing, testing Japanese authorities' resolve to stem the currency's climb.

Nikkei also said in its August 25 morning edition that the Bank of Japan is considering additional steps to loosen monetary policy. Depending on market conditions, the policy board may decide to take action sooner by convening an extraordinary meeting, according to the report.

Actions could include boosting its facility that provides three-month funding at a low 0.1 percent to 30 trillion yen from the current 20 trillion yen. Extending the funding period to six months would be another option, Nikkei said.

The U.S. dollar briefly pared losses against the yen after the Nikkei report. It was last down 1.1 percent at 84.14 yen, not far from a session low of 83.61 yen, according to Reuters data.

"Going the quantitative easing route seems to be the preferred policy move from Japanese authorities should they decide to act," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

"With U.S. yields were they are, all simple intervention will do is give speculators better levels at which to buy yen."

The Nikkei report cautioned that the impact of unilateral intervention could be muted given that other major economies are not expected join the move.


http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6 ... Name=usdai

[winston]

Not vested in the Japan ETF yet ...

Japan keeps intervention option open to curb yen
By Leika Kihara and Yoko Nishikawa

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan is not ruling out market intervention to curb the yen's rise, government sources said on Wednesday, sending the strongest signal yet that the currency's march toward all-time highs may spur Tokyo into action.

Japanese officials have repeatedly tried to talk the yen down recently amid concern that it could cripple an export-driven recovery, but markets have doubted they would risk going solo and all but ruled out a coordinated intervention with other Group of Seven countries.

Government sources told Reuters intervention was possible and one said acting alone was always an option, echoing an earlier report in the Nikkei newspaper.

Still, investors remained skeptical whether intervention, unless coupled with bold monetary policy easing, would do much to stem a rise that took the yen to a 15-year high against the dollar and a nine-year peak against the euro on Tuesday, battering the Tokyo stock market

"Even if we see a short-term bounce in dollar/yen, I still think the risk is that we head lower before all is said and done," Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac Bank in Sydney told Reuters Insider television.

DOUBTS ABOUT BOJ MOVE, IMPACT

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told reporters he would respond appropriately as needed, an expression he has not used before in his efforts to curb a rally that threatens to make Japanese goods less competitive and erode exporters' profits, the lone bright spot in the country's fragile economy.

The sharp yen rise and resulting declines in Tokyo stocks have made it more likely that the Bank of Japan will further ease monetary policy before its scheduled rate review on September 6-7, sources told Reuters.

The Nikkei average fell 1.7 percent on Wednesday to a 16-month low.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will leave on Thursday to attend the Kansas City Federal Reserve's conference in Jackson Hole in the United States and return on August 30.

His trip may make it less likely, but not impossible, that the BOJ would hold an emergency meeting while he's away.

Speculators anyway doubt the Bank of Japan is ready for drastic steps, and say any more modest measures would likely have little lasting impact in braking the yen or spurring economic growth.

"If they really want to do something on the yen ... they have to create inflation expectations," said Martin Schulz, a senior economist at Fujitsu Research Institute.

"But I don't think the BOJ would go in that direction."

The yen has risen nearly 10 percent against the dollar so far this year, with the U.S. currency weighed down by doubts about the U.S. recovery and falling Treasury yields, along with other global factors that Tokyo has little power to influence.

Japan has not intervened in the currency market since March 2004, when it ended a 15-month 35 trillion yen ($415.9 billion) selling spree aimed at rescuing an economic recovery.

RULING PARTY DISARRAY

The Nikkei newspaper said Japan's finance ministry would consider intervening unilaterally if the yen rose by several yen to the dollar in a single day.

The dollar sank as low as 83.58 yen at one point on Tuesday but rose to 84.32 yen on Wednesday, helped by the Nikkei report. The euro fell as much as 2.2 percent to 105.44 yen on Tuesday. It was around 106.62 yen on Wednesday.

Adding to perceptions that policymakers will not act decisively, there is seeming disarray in the novice ruling Democratic Party as speculation simmers that Kan may face a challenge in a September 14 party leadership vote.

The Democratic-led government, which took power for the first time just a year ago, is working on steps to help the economy without further inflating a huge public debt, but the content of the plan might shift after the party vote.

BOJ LINES UP OPTIONS

Annual growth in Japan's exports slowed less than expected in July, finance ministry data showed on Wednesday, but economists expect export growth to slow in the coming months due to signs the global economic recovery is faltering.

Nissan Motor Co told Reuters the yen rally would have a serious impact on its annual results. Japan's No. 3 automaker is assuming a 90 yen per dollar rate for the year to March, and estimates every one yen gain cuts its operating profit by 15 billion yen.

Tokyo also would probably have difficulty convincing its U.S. and European counterparts to jointly step into the markets, given that a weakening of their currencies is helping their exports.

Markets have speculated for weeks that rather than intervening on its own, Japan would opt for monetary easing. The most likely scenario is for the BOJ to increase the size or extend the duration of a short-term fund supply scheme put in place in December, sources familiar with the matter say.

Japanese companies have become more resilient to yen strength and enjoyed a sharp jump in profits for the April-June quarter, but every 1 yen rise against the dollar will trim recurring profit at major manufacturers by 0.9 percent this fiscal year, according to an estimate by Nomura Securities.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6 ... orethebell

[winston]

Japanese Yen: The Downside Prevails By Trading Central


Update on supports and resistances.

Resistance3: 92
Resistance2: 89
Resistance1: 87.5
Last: 84.26
Pivot: 87.5
Support1: 83.55
Support2: 82.4
Support3: 79.3

Our preference: Short positions below 87.5 with targets @ 83.55 & 82.4 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 87.5 look for further upside with 89 & 92 as targets.

Comment: the pair is capped by a declining trend line and is breaking below its support.


http://www.dailymarkets.com/forex/2010/ ... evails-43/

[kennynah]

Without trading fx account, I reviewed /J7's charts...
The more I see, the more I'm keen to go Short at 0.0118 region...

You think?

[winston]

Ha Ha ... Agree. I think this trade is too crowded and there would be some reversion to the mean soon.

But what do I know about forex trading ?

[eauyong]

08/29 18:17 USD/JPY: Jumps On News Of BoJ Emergency Meeting

SYDNEY. August 30 (IFR) - The USD/JPY jumped from 85.35 to 85.74 on news that the BoJ will hold an emergency policy meeting at 00:00 GMT, as the market looks for a stimulatary package and measures to stem JPY strength. The Tenkan line at 85.85 is initial resistance. The USD/JPY trades 85.70/73. thomsonreuters.

[ichew]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boj-to ... 2010-08-29
BOJ Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa is scheduled to speak to reporters later Monday after the meeting, the BOJ said.

tink prob speaking at 130pm sg time

[ichew]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boj-ex ... 2010-08-29

news out

[kennynah]

a case of sell on rumour and buy on news announcement...

so far, action on JPY is muted...

[Poles]

100jpy to $1 >>> i want to go tokyo disney!