by winston » Wed Jul 02, 2008 11:39 am
Not vested. From Kim Eng:-
Sembcorp Marine – Company update (Rohan Suppiah 64321455) Previous day closing price: $4.18
Recommendation: Buy (maintained)
Target price: $4.95 (raised)
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Announces new offshore platform and semi-sub orders
Sembcorp Marine (SMM) recently announced that
1) its SMOE subsidiary has secured a contract worth US$400m from Maersk Olie og Gas AS for the construction of a HBD Platform in the North Sea, to be completed by June 2010; and
2) it has secured a contract from Larsen Oil & Gas to build a deepwater semi-submersible rig for US$640m. This is the fourth consecutive semi-submersible newbuild that the owner has placed with SMM. Delivery is scheduled for April 2011.
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Pricing significantly higher
Of the two contracts, the semi-submersible pricing is in line with that of a recent Letter of Intent with Seadrill, and, more significantly, is 22% higher than the previous semi-submersible ordered by Larsen in Jan 2007. The higher price effectively mitigates the weaker US dollar, increased steel prices and labour costs, thereby allaying fears of margin squeeze.
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No margin compression
The value of both these contracts therefore provides us more comfort with our turnover and margin assumptions for FY2010 and beyond. In the current tight market for deepwater rigs, SMM indeed has the pricing power so as not to get squeezed on higher input costs. We are consequently raising our long-term margin assumptions.
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Order momentum to remain strong
Year to date, SMM has won orders amounting to some $3.2bn, with its current total orderbook now around $9.5bn. We still expect more orders in the coming months, on the back of record oil prices driving up demand for deepwater exploration and production assets.
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Raising target price to $4.95
We are raising our DCF-derived target price for SMM from $4.56 to $4.95 on the back of a less conservative margin assumption for FY2010 and beyond. We are also raising our FY10 net profit forecast by 3%, while FY08 and FY09 remain unchanged. Our BUY recommendation is maintained.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"