Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 18, 2010:-


Standing Aside - Week 4


Another week of waiting

Market Sentiment has turned a bit positive though but it's still not a Convincing Buy.

Am expecting Window Dressing plays to last till the end of the month. Therefore, there could be a Window of Opportunity to go long on some momentum plays with strong catalyst.



The week in review:-


1) Oil - US$ 77.18 from US$73,78 from US$71.51. Looks like the Support is around US$68. Hurricane season is also starting. Watching CNOOC.

2) Gold - US$ 1257 from US$1229 from US$ US$1216. Looks like the Support is around US$1100. Watching Zhaojin and Real Gold.

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement

4) Shanghai Equities - 2513 from 2570 last week. Is the support around 2400 ? The drop is now about 21% from 19% last week. Watching A50 but it's trading at about a 10% premium to it's underlying NAV.
Would they be using the supposedly RMB appreciation news to push up the Financial and Property counters ?

5) HK Equities - 20291 from 19872 last week. The drop is 9% versus 11% last week. It looks like the Support is around 19000 then 18,000. No trade for the week. The Volume for the past three weeks have been very low.

6) Spore Equities - 2833 from 2796 last week. No trade for the week.

7) US Equities - 1118 from 1092 last week. Support at 1060 then 1030. Still sitting on half of my S&P Inverse ETF. The drop now is about 8% versus 11% last week.

8) Japan Equities - 9995 from 9705 last week. Support @ 9100. The index is now down 12% versus 14% last week. The strong yen would hurt the exporters.

9) Emerging Markets - Second largest weekly inflow of the year

10) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - How many other people would be walking away from their property purchases ?

11) Iran - What are the consequences of the sanction ?

12) US & Japanese Interest Rates - With risk aversion and money flowing back to the US and Japan now, the sudden spike may not happen in the near future.

13) USD - 85.98 from 87.52. Still not good for Commodities

14) European Contagion - No more Sensational Headlines and Noise

15) Window Dressing - 1H Window Dressing is supposedly here and should last till month end


And while I'm waiting for the setup ( thanks 802! ), I'm reviewing my trading rules. Two rules stands out:-

1) Dont form new opinions during trading hours. Decisions made during the trading day based on a price move or news item is usually disastrous. Formulate a basic opinion before the market opens. Then look for the proper time to execute the decision, that has been made apart from the emotion of the market.

2) Block out other opinions. Dont be influenced in your trading by what someone says or you will continually change your mind. Once you have formed a basic opinion on the market direction, dont allow yourself to be easily influenced. You can always find someone who can give what appears to be logical reasons for reversing your position. If you listen to outside views, you may be tempted to change your mind. only to find later that holding your own opinion would have been profitable.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[winston]

TOL as of Jun 27, 2010:-


Nibbling Again


After standing aside for close to 4 weeks, I'm starting to nibble again.

However, I would still need to be a bit more careful as:
1) Market Sentiment is worse than expected and
2) Window Dressing will be over soon


The week in review:-


1) Oil - US$78.85 from US$ 77.18 last week. Looks like the Support is around US$68. Hurricane season is starting. Watching CNOOC.

2) Gold - US$1256 from US$ 1257 last week. Looks like the Support is around US$1100. Watching Zhaojin and Real Gold.

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement

4) Shanghai Equities - 2553 from 2513 last week. Is the support around 2400 ? Watching A50 but it's trading at about a 10% premium to it's underlying NAV.

5) HK Equities - 20691 from 20291 last week. It looks like the Support is around 19000. Added to Asia Cassava and initiated positions in AMVIG and Xiwang Sugar. The Volume for the past four weeks have been very low.

6) Spore Equities - 2848 from 2833 last week. No trade for the week.

7) US Equities - 1077 from 1118 last week. Support at 1060 then 1030. Still sitting on half of my S&P Inverse ETF.

8) Japan Equities - 9737 from 9995 last week. Support @ 9100. The strong yen would hurt the exporters.

9) Emerging Markets - Dont confuse Liquidity with PEG

10) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - I'm surprized that there are still some "experts" out there that are saying that properties can continue to go up. You can ASK but can get an offer at the price that you are asking ?

11) Iran - What are the consequences of the sanction ?

12) US & Japanese Interest Rates - With risk aversion and money flowing back to the US and Japan now, the sudden spike may not happen in the near future.

13) USD - 85.56 from 85.98. Still not good for Commodities

14) European Contagion - Looks like a slow crash and burn situation

15) Window Dressing - 1H Window Dressing will be over very soon


Intuitively, the markets will be weak after Window Dressing and before the US earnings season. Therefore, this is not the time to take big positions unless one is very confident that one's counter has a strong catalyst that can move against Market Direction.

Once Window Dressing is over, I may start buying some Puts on the HSI again.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - We would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The hosting fees alone is Sin$600 and our Ads Revenue is only about Sin$20 till date.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

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[kennynah]

W :nibble Long or Short side?

[winston]

W :nibble Long or Short side?

Ha Ha ... Nibbling Long for Position Trading.

And will nibble Short after Window Dressing, for Swing Trading

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 04, 2010:-


The Path of Least Resistance


I'm surprized with the amount of negativity in the market. Is the US economy not grinding slowly upwards ? Is Asia not continuing with it's growth ? What has really changed over the past few weeks ?

Although I'm inclined to continue increasing my exposure to Equities, I should take note that the path of least resistance seems to be downwards. Like MM always says, "the trend is your friend until it breaks".

In this case, I think the trend downwards can only break with a sharp spike upwards, probably due to massive short covering. In the absence of that, I may need to be more patient. In the past, I always get careless when I'm sitting in Cash.


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$72.14 from US$78.85 last week. Is the Support around US$68? Hurricane season is starting. Watching CNOOC.

2) Gold - US$1207 from US$1256 last week. Is the Support around US$1100 ? Watching Zhaojin.

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement

4) Shanghai Equities - 2383 from 2553 last week. Is the support around 2200 ? Watching A50

5) HK Equities - 19905 from 20691 last week. Is the Support around 19000 ? Added to Xiwang Sugar and initiated position in Real Gold. The Volume for the past few weeks have been very low.

6) Spore Equities - 2844 from 2848 last week. No trade for the week. Performed relatively well. Who's supporting the market and why ? GE coming ?

7) US Equities - 1023 from 1077. Support at 1030 taken out. Next support at 1000 then 980. Still sitting on half of my S&P Inverse ETF.

8) Japan Equities - 9204 from 9737 last week. Support @ 9100. The strong yen would hurt the exporters.

9) Emerging Markets - If there's Risk Aversion, what are the consequences ?

10) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - Can Properties go up when Equities are dropping ?

11) Iran - What are the consequences of the sanction ?

12) US & Japanese Interest Rates - With risk aversion and money flowing back to the US and Japan now, the sudden spike may not happen in the near future.

13) USD - 84.-07 from 85.56. Still not good for Commodities

14) European Contagion - Looks like a slow crash and burn situation



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - We would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The hosting fees alone is Sin$600 and our Ads Revenue is only about Sin$20 till date.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 11, 2010:-


Trading the Divergence from Normal


I have joked a couple of times that "feel" is a more accurate tool for me than some of the TA tools out there. Just the last few week, we saw some a fake "H&S" and a fake "Death Star".

Today, I will try to expand on what is "feel" and how some successful traders have consistently use it to make money.

This trading rule simply means that, if traders generally expect the market to rally and if it fails, it's usually a good time to go short and vice versa.

For the past few weeks, people were expecting a collapse and since that did not happen, it's usually a good time to go long, for the short term.

Anyway, I should been more aggresive with the buying but with the world shouting "crash and burn" in my ears, it's very hard to be an independent thinker .


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$76.09 from US$72.14 last week. Is the Support around US$68? Hurricane season is starting. Watching CNOOC but I'm concerned about their resource tax.

2) Gold - US$1210 from US$1207 last week. Is the Support around US$1100 ? Watching Zhaojin.

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement

4) Shanghai Equities - 2471 from 2383 last week. Is the support around 2200 ? Watching A50 and CSI 300. The bounce was fast and furious.

5) HK Equities - 20379 from 19905 last week. Is the Support around 19000 ? The Volume for the past few weeks have been very low. Sold AMVIG and initiated position in ASM Pacific.

6) Spore Equities - 2917 from 2844 last week. Performed relatively well. Who's supporting the market and why ? GE coming ? Sold Wilmar

7) US Equities - 1078 from 1023. Still sitting on half of my S&P Inverse ETF.

8) Japan Equities - 9585 from 9204 last week. Support @ 9100. Looks like the level of the Yen is driving this market nowadays

9) Emerging Markets - Inflow or Outflow ?

10) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - Why are you buying at such prices ?

11) Iran - What are the consequences of the sanction ?

12) US & Japanese Interest Rates - With risk aversion and money flowing back to the US and Japan now, the sudden spike may not happen in the near future.

13) USD - 84.15 from 84.07. Still not good for Commodities

14) European Contagion - Dont underestimate the ability of people to overcome challenges and also dont over-estimate the abilities of Doom-sayers to analyse things properly.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - We would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The hosting fees alone is Sin$600 and our Ads Revenue is only about Sin$20 till date.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 18, 2010:-


Trading Market ?


I have been looking at my spreadsheet as well as the charts, to have a feel of where things are heading. My conclusion is that it's still a Trading Market.

That means that whenever there's a small profit, I should take it. And that also means that whenever prices have corrected, I should initiate a long position and vice-versa.

It also means that I should keep a larger % of my Strategic Allocation in Cash. And it also means, not using 30% of my Tactical Allocation, to trade. It also means standing on the sidelines, if a strong catalyst, is not present.

The market is quite volatile and it's not likely to get better in the near next 6 months.


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$76.01 from US$76.09 last week. Is the Support around US$68? Hurricane season has been so good so far. Watching CNOOC but I'm concerned about their new resource tax.

2) Gold - US$1188 from US$1210 last week. Is the Support around US$1100 ? Watching Zhaojin. Longer term, they are expecting the Japanese and Chinese, to be putting more of their money in gold.

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement

4) Shanghai Equities - 2424 from 2471 last week. Is the support around 2350 ? Watching A50 and CSI 300.

5) HK Equities - 20250 from 20379 last week. Is the Support around 19000 ? Volume has been very low. Sold GCL Poly, Sold 1/2 Xiwang Sugar and Sold 3/4 Asia Cassava. Bought ASM Pacific, Comba and China High Speed Transmission. .

6) Spore Equities - 2954 from 2917 last week. GE coming ? Sold Starhill and Sold 1/3 Breadtalk.

7) US Equities - 1065 from 1078. Still sitting on half of my S&P Inverse ETF. Will there be more one-time charges for the new Healthcare Regulation during this earnings season?

8) Japan Equities - 9408 from 9585 last week. Support @ 9100 ? Looks like the level of the Yen is driving this market nowadays

9) Emerging Markets - Inflow or Outflow ?

10) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - You know that there's a bubble when you see the foreign developers snapping things up in your backyard, at "ridiculous prices". These foreigners dont understand local conditions but are afraid of losing out

11) Iran - What are the consequences of the sanction ?

12) US & Japanese Interest Rates - Barring a collapse in their currency, interest rates could remained low for a while longer. Anyway, Japan has successfully engineered a low interest rate environment for two decades. So we will have to wait for the currency collapse first before we can get that spike in interest rate.

13) USD - 82.66 from 84.15 last week. Still not so good for Commodities but getting better

14) European Contagion - What contagion ? EUR touched 1.30 on Friday


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 25, 2010:-


Double Dip ?


Over the past few weeks, while the market was correcting, the Dr. Dooms and the Dr. Deaths were out again talking about Double Dips, as if the whole world is coming to an end again...

My take on things is that things are recovering but slowly. Even if there's a double dip, the stockmarkets may still not crash. There's plenty of money on the sidelines and those money would be deployed very quickly in the event of a crash.

And for those people who were expecting things to be very rosy and were disappointed by the latest events, which planet have you been on ? Did you not know of the foreclosures in the US ? Did you not know of the high unemployment in Europe and the US ?

I still believe that this is still a Trading Market so I will continue to Trade rather than to "Buy & Hold". Only when I'm fully satisfied that Economic Fundamentals are really strong, would I be holding on longer to my positions.

And finally, dont let those Dr. Dooms and Dr. Deaths, frighten you out of the market. But dont be like those Dr. Bliss either, who are always wearing rose colored glasses. A healthy dose of skepticism is useful in this type of market, whenever it rises and whenever it drops ....


The week in review:-


1) Oil - US$78.98 from US$76.01 last week. Will not chase.

2) Gold - US$1188 from US$1188 last week. Is the Support around US$1100 ?

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement

4) Shanghai Equities - 2572 from 2424 last week. Watching A50 and CSI 300.

5) HK Equities - 20815 from 20250 last week. Volume spiked on Friday. Bought Rexlot, ASM Pacific, Comba and AMVIG. Sold Asia Cassava, Shineway and China High Speed Transmission.

6) Spore Equities - 2973 from 2954 last week. GE coming ? Sold Hong Leong Asia.

7) US Equities - 1103 from 1065 last week. Still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF. Will there be more one-time charges for the new Healthcare Regulation ?

8) Japan Equities - 9431 from 9408 last week. Looks like the level of the Yen is driving this market nowadays

9) Emerging Markets - Inflow is still strong.

10) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - Why would you be buying at this price ?

11) Iran - What are the consequences of the sanction ?

12) US & Japanese Interest Rates - Barring a collapse in the currency, interest rates may remain low for a while longer.

13) USD - 82.63 from 82.66 last week. Maybe this is the Support.

14) European Contagion - When ?



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL on Jul 31, 2010:-


Trading Break


It has been a good few weeks. Therefore, it's time to take a trading break.

I recall reading somewhere that trading everyday dulls one's judgement.

One successful trader also commented that if he falls to 90% mental efficiency, he begins to only break-even. Anything below that, he starts to lose money. This particular takes a trading break every 5-6 weeks and I'm now touching my 5th week of trading.

A trading break also helps one to take a detached view of the market and also provides one with a fresh look, as well as the way one wants to trade in the next few weeks.


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$78.95 from US$78.98 last week. Will not chase.

2) Gold - US$1182 from US$1188 last week. Is the Support around US$1100 ?

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement

4) Shanghai Equities - 2638 from 2572 last week. Dominated by the BBs ..

5) HK Equities - 21030 from 20815 last week. Sold Rexlot, ASM Pacific, Asia Cassava, AMVIG, Xiwang Sugar and 1/2 Comba. Initiated a small HSI Puts.

6) Spore Equities - 2988 from 2973. No trade in this glacier market

7) US Equities - 1102 from 1103 last week. Still sitting on half of my S&P Inverse ETF. Will there be more one-time charges for the new Healthcare Regulation ?

8) Japan Equities - 9537 from 9431 last week.

9) Emerging Markets - Inflow is still strong. However, BoAML took this to be a Contrarian indicator.

10) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - Why would you not be buying at this price?

11) Iran - What happened to the sanction ?

12) USD - 81.70 from 82.63 last week.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL on Aug 8, 2010:-


Trading Break - Week One


As mentioned, I'm currently on a trading break.

I'm trying to have a detached view of the market. So far, I dont really like what I see.

I'm seeing complacency and recklessness. Therefore, I will leave it to the momentum players to play amongst themselves. Whenever I chase stocks, I tend to get into trouble.


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$80.7 from US$78.98 last week. Will not chase.

2) Gold - US$1203 from US$1188 last week. Is the Support around US$1100 ?

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement

4) Shanghai Equities - 2658 from 2638 last week.

5) HK Equities - 21679 from 21030 last week. Sold second 1/2 Comba

6) Spore Equities - 2996 from 2988 last week. No trade.

7) US Equities - 1121 from 1103 last week. Will there be more one-time charges for the new Healthcare Regulation ?

8) Japan Equities - 9642 from 9537 last week.

9) Emerging Markets - Inflow is still strong.

10) Iran - What happened to the sanction ?

11) USD - 80.36 from 82.66 last week.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.