Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[profittaker]

Thanks Winston. Sharing is caring.

[kennynah]

Despite my regular monitoring of the markets, I'm not able to see where it's heading.

sometimes, it might be better to remove yourself from the market altogether...free the mind from any market thoughts... do anything else but trade related activities.. relax, recharge, refresh..

and then, come back with a new pair of "eyes"....

also, if we try to keep things simple, we sometimes get the correct drift....too much info can become misinformation....

and finally, always enjoy the process....the moment, that is missing... what we do become chores...and that can negatively affect our trading....

good luck

[winston]

Thanks K.

Yes, I normally try to take a trading break every 6 to 8 weeks when I'm not as sharp as I want to be. This is very important as I'm Scalping and Swing Trading a lot nowadays ie. swimming with the sharks, so I need to be sharper than them.

Yes, I need to KISS more often ( Keep It Simple Stupid )

Yes, the journey is more important than the destination. I like the A.C.T.I.O.N. Plan that I mentioned last week.

Thanks and take care,
Winston

[winston]

Review of Vested Singapore Stocks

1) Breadtalk - Long Term Chinese Consumer Play, trading at discount to HK peers
2) Fraser Commercial - NTA 0.27; F&N's involvement is positive
3) Global Investment - RNAV 0.30; Temasek's involvement is positive
4) Hong Leong Asia - Sharp correction; Discount to SOTP
5) Hotung - RNAV 0.22; Good dividends
6) K1 - RNAV 0.19; Will Keppel divest this company ?
7) MFS - Where are we in the cycle ?
8) Saizen - How is Japanese Commercial Real Estate doing ?
9) Stamford Land - Long term Australian Play
10) Starhill - Long Term Asian Economic Play; Excellent Sponsor - YTL
11) Wilmar - Good Company at a Fair Price

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 6, 2010:-


Standing Aside ( Again )


I did not trade the whole week. I could not find any long ideas.

And I dare not short the indices even though I could see the set-up on two of the days. Anyway, I hesitated and lost both opportunities.

So it's being a boring week. But better safe than sorry.. ( excuses excuses )


The week in review:-


1) Oil - US$71.51 from US$73.97 last week. Is the Support around US$68 ? Hurricane season is also starting. Watching CNOOC.

2) Gold - US$1216 from US$ 1212 last week. Is the Support around US$1100? Watching Zhaojin and Real Gold.

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement.

4) Shanghai Equities - 2554 from 2656 last week. Is the support around 2400 ? The drop is now about 19% from 16% last week. Watching A50. Headwinds include lower liquidity, higher interest rates, unlocked shares supply & property correction

5) HK Equities - 19780 from 19770 last week. Positions in Longyuan, Minmetal Land, GCL Poly and Asia Cassava. The drop is still about 11%. It looks like the Support is around 19000 then 18,000. No trade for the week.

6) Spore Equities - 2807 from 2740 last week. No trade for the week.

7) US Equities - 1065 from 1089 last week. Support at 1060 then 1030. Still have half of my S&P Inverse ETF. The drop now is still about 12%.

8) Japan Equities - 9901 from 9763 last week. Support @ 9100. The index is now down 13% compared to down 16% last week. The strong yen would hurt the exporters.

9) Emerging Markets - Continued outflow ?.

10) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - Chinese developers are reducing prices.

11) Iran - Is there a road map towards sanctions ?

12) US & Japanese Interest Rates - With risk aversion and money flowing back to the US and Japan now, the sudden spike may not happen in the near future.

13) USD - 88.39 from 86.58. Good for US interest rates but not good for Commodities

14) European Contagion - The Noise has dropped a lot this week.

15) Window Dressing - 1H Window Dressing would be due next week. Maybe that could be the catalyst for a rally.


I'm back to thinking that maybe it would like the period after the AFC, where the market when nowhere for 2 years. If that's the case, it's back to relying on your good old stock-picking skills if you still want to visit the casino. If not, your time could be better spent on your career or building a business.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[kennynah]

13) USD - 88.39 from 86.58. Good for US interest rates but not good for Commodities

W : could you please share with us your thoughts behind this above point? why is a stronger dollar good for interest rates?

thanks..

[winston]

Hi K,

1) If Helicopter Ben can control things, he would like to have zero interest rates as long as possible.

2) However, the buyers of the US IOUs may want to have a higher return to compensate them for the possibility of a sovereign debt default and capital depreciation. The deficit is now touching US$13t and there's also the annual deficit.

3) If enough lenders stop buying the US Debts, the US government would have no choice but to increase interest rates.

4) In addition, if there's a sudden collapse of the USD, the Feds would also have no choice but to increase interest rates to stabilize things.

5) However, with the money flowing back to the US, they have been able to prolong their "Ponzi Scheme" for a little while longer ..

This is a long term issue. Not an Investable or Actionable idea. So only good for the academics to discuss.

Take care,
Winston

[Chinaman]

Hi K,
1) If Helicopter Ben can control things, he would like to have zero interest rates as long as possible.

Hey Towkay K,
What your take on S'pore Interest Rate?

I very confident that it will still remain ultra low till end of this year....after GE i dunno, when interest rate up, Inflation fly....die liao cannot retire early

Bet 1 massage at B...how? haha , only 6 mths left me got advantage ..not fair deal.

[kennynah]

boss C...

singapore interest rate is what now...i oso duno... let alone 6 mths from now...hahaha....

but we seem to be at sub4% inflation.... our sgd against usd n yuan is already comparatively expensive in the last 12 mths....

all points to a status quo....in IR some i think 6 more mths

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 13, 2010:-


Standing Aside - Week 3


It has been a while since I stood aside for such a long time. And I'm not really the type that enjoy observing and waiting and waiting for the right time to act. I'm really the quite inpatient type. Always trying to do something. Always running around or sending off an email. Always reading or on the look out for the next idea ...

However, I have learned the hard way that Busyness is not really Productivity. There's a time to act and there's also a time to conserve energy. There's a time to back up the truck and there's also a time to take only a small position to follow the story.

This is one of those times where I just have to watch the markets from the sidelines. I cant tell what the Market Direction is. And I cant find strong catalysts for the stocks that I like. I also cant trade the volatility as they are gapping up and down at the open. And it's also not easy to fade those gaps as I've only that few seconds to act before the opportunity is gone


The week in review:-


1) Oil - US$73,78 from US$71.51 last week. Is the Support around US$68 ? Hurricane season is also starting. Watching CNOOC.

2) Gold - US$1229 from US$ US$1216 last week. Is the Support around US$1100? Watching Zhaojin and Real Gold.

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement.

4) Shanghai Equities - 2570 from 2554 last week. Is the support around 2400 ? The drop is now about 23% from 19% last week. Watching A50.

5) HK Equities - 19872 from 19780 last week. No trade for the week. The drop is still about 11%. It looks like the Support is around 19000 then 18,000. No trade for the week.

6) Spore Equities - 2796 from 2807 last week. No trade for the week.

7) US Equities - 1092 from 1065 last week. Support at 1060 then 1030. Still sitting on half of my S&P Inverse ETF. The drop now is still about 11%.

8) Japan Equities - 9705 from 9901 last week. Support @ 9100. The index is now down 14% compared to down 13% last week. The strong yen would hurt the exporters.

9) Emerging Markets - The faster they rise, the harder they fall ?

10) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - Chinese developers are reducing prices.

11) Iran - What are the consequences of the sanction ?

12) US & Japanese Interest Rates - With risk aversion and money flowing back to the US and Japan now, the sudden spike may not happen in the near future.

13) USD - 87.52 from 88.39. How high can it go ? Not good for Commodities

14) European Contagion - No more Sensational Headlines and Noise

15) Window Dressing - 1H Window Dressing is supposedly here



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - We would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The hosting fees alone is Sin$600 and our Ads Revenue is only about Sin$20 till date.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.