China - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

[millionairemind]

K,

You have a website to do a quick direct translation? If yes, would you send me the link?

Very Kam Sia..

mm

[kennynah]

MM:

i use Firefox 3, as my internet browser...www.firefox.com

that itself is not sufficient...u need to download a plug-in... to do the direct translation...

[winston]

Hong Kong Companies May Shut 20,000 China Plants as Costs Rise
By Mark Lee and Kevin Hamlin

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong companies may shut 20,000 factories in the neighboring Chinese province of Guangdong this year due to increased costs from higher fuel prices and wages, an industry association said.

``At the end of this year, maybe only 50,000 Hong Kong- owned businesses will remain,'' of about 70,000 in the province, according to Danny Lau, chairman of Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association.

``The increase in fuel costs comes on top of several other major issues firms have been grappling with recently,'' such as rising employee expenses related to a new labor law and the appreciation of the yuan.

China last week raised gasoline and diesel prices at least 17 percent, the second increase in seven months, after global crude-oil prices surged to records. The government this year imposed a labor contract law mandating minimum wages and severance payments. The yuan gained 4 percent against the dollar in the first quarter, cutting demand for Chinese-made goods in overseas markets.

Employee costs have jumped 30 percent this year at Kam Pin Industrial (HK) Ltd., Lau's company. The maker of building materials, which employs 300 workers in China, has also seen an almost doubling in fuel costs this year, Lau said.

Higher employee costs in Guangdong prompted Foxconn International Holdings Ltd., based in Shenzhen, to set up production sites in lower-cost Hebei and Shanxi provinces in northern China, Samuel Chin, chairman of the world's biggest contract maker of mobile-phones, said last week.

Single-digit Growth

``China's export competitiveness is definitely declining fast,'' said Sun Mingchun, an economist with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. The volume of goods and services sold overseas has declined to ``single-digit'' growth, he said.

Profitability of Hong Kong-owned manufacturers was also hurt by lower export rebates from the Chinese government, the association's Lau said. Last year, China cut rebates on overseas sales of products including textiles, toys and steel products as part of efforts to lower energy consumption and ease trade friction with the U.S. and Europe.

About 10,000 Hong Kong-owned factories in southern China may shut or cut operations, Stanley Lau, vice-chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, said last month.

Hong Kong companies invested $280 billion in China between 1978 and 2006, accounting for more than 39 percent of the country's foreign direct investment during the period, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce.

[winston]

Half of Chinese fear rising inflation: survey
Friday, June 27, 2008

Half the people living in China's cities expect prices to continue to rise in coming months, state media reported yesterday, citing a central bank survey.

The survey, which covered nearly 20,000 people in 49 cities, found that for the second quarter of the year 50.5 percent thought inflation would still go up in the next three months, the China Daily said.

People deeming prices "too high" reached 45.0 percent, up 15.5 percentage points from a year ago, but declining for the first time since 2007 from the 49.2 percent recorded in the first quarter of this year, it said.

China's inflation hit 7.7 percent in May, easing only slightly from 8.5 percent in April and still at 12-year highs. Beijing last week announced it will hike retail petrol and diesel prices by as much as 18 percent in a bid to close the gap between state-set domestic caps and soaring world oil costs, stoking fears of more inflation.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

[Niczach]

罗杰斯:将更多买A股 但不买铜锌
2006年06月26日 09:46:49 　来源：上海证券报

杰姆·罗杰斯又回来了。

作为全球最成功的投资家之一、量子基金的创始人，2004年，罗杰斯凭借其对中国股市准确的见解，以及十年全球商品大牛市的到来而在中国家喻户晓。

时隔两年，这位满载盛誉的国际投资大师再次来到中国。“中国接下来将会成为世界第一大国，”在24日出席“第二届国际能源与金属战略论坛”的开场白中，罗杰斯言简意赅。紧接着，他还运用他的最新研究成果，对全球商品市场以及中国A股市场的未来发展做了全面解析。

A股未来几年将成为全世界最好的投资市场之一

在看空西方股票市场的同时，罗杰斯肯定地指出，中国的A股市场已经从2005年夏天的低谷中走了出来，未来的几年将会逐渐好转，一些A股股票将会表现得相当不错。

相比其他行业，罗杰斯更加看好旅游、农业、能源、航空等行业的股票。同时，他也指出，房地产行业将面临调整，因此这一行业的股票并不被他看好。

中国的股市在过去的两到四年中一直都很糟糕，也存在着一些泡沫。尤其是在上世纪九十年代末，泡沫破灭后，中国的股市已经经过了4、5年熊市。经过一轮整合，去年以来，市场中一些好的因素开始显现。同时，中国政府也通过做出一些努力来改善股市，中国经济也在持续向前发展。这些都成为罗杰斯看好中国股市的原因。

罗杰斯表示，目前他已经买进了一些中国股票，未来还会买得更多。但是，他也建议投资者，中国的A股市场短期内不可能会上涨60%%以上，因此不需要立刻就把钱都投进来。

同时，罗杰斯也提醒，尽管中国的股票市场在未来几年内会成为全世界最好的股票市场之一，但是如果全世界的股市都出现下跌，中国的股市也会随之下跌。但可以肯定的是，中国的股票市场跌幅会比其他市场小得多。

对于债市，罗杰斯预言，全世界的债券市场将会长时间维持熊市。“大家所有的债券都不要沾，尤其是美国的债券。”

　　商品牛市有望持续至2014年

罗杰斯表示，虽然全球商品的供应不断下降，但需求却在不断上升，这是造成本轮商品牛市的一个重要原因。根据历史经验来看，最短的商品牛市持续了15年，一般都在20年左右。以此判断，始于1999年的商品牛市，将会一直持续，预计在2014年至2022年结束。

从目前的情况来看，尽管目前有4到5种商品的价格已经超过了历史最高价，但包括玉米、糖、咖啡等在内的品种还远没有达到历史最高水平。对这些产品来说，肯定不存在所谓的泡沫。整个来看，商品市场的泡沫也远远没有形成。同时，罗杰斯也表示，“我不觉得有货币泡沫，尤其不会有商品泡沫。”

罗杰斯还指出，从1972年以后开始出现这样一个趋势：全球农产品的供应在下降，但是对它的需求却在不断增加，库存越来越少，供需开始出现紧张。这表明，未来农产品将会有一个大的牛市。

“黄金价格将涨过1000美元以上。如果考虑通货膨胀，最高可能会涨到2000美元。”罗杰斯指出。除了继续持有原来手中的黄金外，他在一两周前又买进了更多的黄金。他建议，黄金的持有者们不要抛掉手中的黄金，因为未来黄金价格会涨得更高。

对于近期铜市的震荡，罗杰斯解释为：铜经历的是一种正常状况下的价格回调，但它仍处在牛市中。但是对于糖，他语气坚定地表示，“糖肯定会是一个牛市，它的价格将长期走高。”

对玉米价格的未来走势他表示出了乐观。“另外，投资者还可以买进糖、咖啡、银等一些价格目前处于低位的商品，因为它们的上涨空间还很大。”

　　北京和上海房价5年内不会跌

“中国部分房地产投资商可能在一两年内会破产”，罗杰斯指出，房地产投资商中的一些人已经遇到了问题，政府现在正在非常明智地采取措施，来遏制房产的投机。

但他不认为针对房地产的调控措施会影响整个经济大局。“政府这么做，会出现一些问题，但是大家不要担心，中国经济的其它部门将会持续增长，不会受到这个影响。如果你是在中国一个合适的行业中，在未来几年中会发展得很好。”

关于房产价格，他认为，即使现在中国房地产价格还没有下降，将来肯定会下降。“但北京和上海的房产价格将会持续多年保持高涨，至少在5年之内不会下降。”

中国未来15到30年将建成巨大的金融衍生品市场

尽管金融衍生品市场在中国刚刚起步，远不如西方国家那么成熟。但在未来的15至30年之内，中国将会有一个巨大的金融衍生品市场。

如果要想在职业生涯中夺得辉煌，罗杰斯建议应该投身到金融衍生品市场中去。同时，他也提醒，进入金融衍生品市场要很小心，因为这个市场会让投资者亏很多钱，而且亏钱的速度极快。为此他建议，在进入这个市场之前，一定要深入地了解什么是金融衍生品，深入地了解这个市场。

　　美国巨额债务将导致美元严重贬值

尽管美元在过去60年一直是全球的储备货币，但罗杰斯认为，这一点正在变化，“美元现在出了很大的问题。”他指出，美国从1987年就是负债国，现在20年过去了，美国欠世界其他国家8万亿美元。

“我们债务缠身，我们是历史上出现最大的一个负债国，这个数字确实很吓人。但更吓人的是，美国的外债每15个月就会增长1万亿美元，实际上五年后美国的情况还会变得更加糟糕。”

为此，他认为，美元将会严重贬值。“我们应该尽可能地持有人民币，因为人民币是我所知道的现在最稳健的货币之一。我也希望能买人民币，但我是一个外国人，这么做不容易。但是这一点也会发生变化，中国会在可预见的未来开放货币，让它变成可转换的。” （记者 商文 但有为）

[winston]

From The Times of India:-

China hands out hikes to ensure smooth Games
29 Jun 2008, 0005 hrs IST, Saibal Dasgupta,TNN

BEIJING: Beijing's local government has decided to offer carrots to its employees to ensure their full cooperation during the Olympic Games when different civic facilities will come under tremendous pressure. It has also given the highest raise in the allowances of people living below poverty line in nine years.

The purpose is to offset the ill-effects of rising inflation and making sure there is no case of local Chinese airing their grievances to visiting foreigners, sources said.

This is the first major move to offer carrots to local citizens in the midst of a massive "good behaviour" campaign to teach people to stand in queues for buses and not to spit on streets. So, far people have been driven to improve their civic temperament by evoking a sense of Olympic Games-linked patriotism and the fear of authority.

The city's government said it on Saturday that it was raising the salary of its employees by 10% from July 1. This will mean a rise in the salary of the lowest paid city employee by 70 Yuan (Rs 436) to 800 (Rs 4,987).

For those living below the poverty line, the monthly allowance has risen by 80 Yuan (Rs 374) to 390 Yuan (Rs 2,431). This is the biggest monthly allowance for families living under the poverty line will climb 60 Yuan to 390 Yuan, the sharpest increase in the past nine years.

The government also announced it will be increasing is the city's employment insurance, job-related injury insurance and pension. The government is expected to keep large numbers of people indoors and severely curtail movement of cars to ensure that streets and buses are not too crowded for visitors from across the world.

[winston]

BCA Research: China – what could go wrong?

“China’s macro environment is increasingly challenging. There are a number of risk factors, with oil and wage costs currently being the two most important.

“The Chinese economy has been able to handle surging crude oil prices remarkably well, although it is difficult to know at what point energy prices will begin to choke domestic growth. China is one of the largest oil importers in the world and its dependence on external supplies of crude oil is close to 50% of its consumption.

The rise in crude prices has become an increasingly heavy economic burden. Total oil consumption has jumped to more than 10% of China’s GDP, up from about 5% at the beginning of last year.

“With regards to labor compensation, stronger wage growth (potentially driven by rising food prices) would be a precursor to widespread inflationary pressures in China. As long as earnings growth remains in check, it is unlikely that a wage inflation spiral will develop. So far, wage gains have been largely offset by improvements in productivity (i.e. unit labor costs have not risen much) but this trend is worth monitoring closely.

“Bottom line: Moderating but robust growth and subdued inflation remains our baseline forecast, despite these potential risks. Stay tuned.”

[winston]

Watchdog sets new trading rules
Chen Liyi
Monday, June 30, 2008

Amid sluggish performances on the mainland's stock market and speculation that Beijing might launch measures to revive market sentiment, the Chinese securities watchdog has imposed a set of rules for options and margin trading.

The watchdog is also limiting the number of yuan-denominated A shares for sale.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 153.418 points, or 5.29 per cent to end at 2,748.432 on Friday, the lowest close since February 9 last year.

The barometer for the mainland stock market has declined 45 percent this year amid fears over Beijing approving more tightening measures, as well as an oversupply of new shares on the market.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said at the weekend that from December 1 domestic securities firms will only be able to lend clients at most 5 percent of an account's net worth for either options or margin trading.

Also, securities firms have to ensure that their clients do not borrow more than 20 percent of the total market value of the stocks they are buying.

Moreover, brokerage firms are not allowed to run proprietary and derivatives trading amounting to more than their registered capital. The amount of their fixed-income business also cannot exceed five times their capital, and the net asset worth of securities firms must make up at least 40 percent of their capital.

[winston]

China Pension Fund Records Sixfold Increase in Investment Gains
By Josephine Lau

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Chinese national pension fund's investment gains increased almost sixfold in 2007 from a year earlier as returns from its stock holdings more than tripled, said the Beijing-based fund.

Investment income at the National Council for Social Security Fund, or NSSF, jumped to 112.9 billion yuan ($16.5 billion) last year from 19.6 billion yuan a year earlier, the fund said in a statement posted on its Web site.

NSSF almost doubled the investments it made through external fund managers to 206.9 billion yuan last year from 2006, according to the statement. The domestic stock market rallied in 2007 although the CSI 300 Index, which tracks yuan-denominated shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, is down 47 percent so far this year.

The NSSF made 47.1 percent of its investments through external asset managers, both domestic and overseas, last year, it said. Direct investments made up the rest.

The Chinese pension fund had directly invested 27 billion yuan in stocks at the end of 2007, up 10.8 percent from the beginning of the year. It more than tripled its holdings in short- and long-term bonds to 2.8 billion yuan in the period, the statement said.

NSSF's equity stake investments rose 11.7 percent to 38.1 billion yuan at the end of 2007 from a year earlier. Its assets totaled 439.7 billion yuan at year-end.

The NSSF began last month to seek a second batch of fund management companies to help invest its assets in global equity markets. The fund may invest 20 percent of its assets abroad. In November 2006, the NSSF appointed UBS AG and nine other fund managers to help it invest overseas.

[millionairemind]

Lets look a little deeper... is this riot really about this one single case of rape and murder... or the underlying pent up anger of the Chinese ppe. at the authorities that is re-surfacing at every given chance on corruption, inflation, high cost of living, pollution etc...

The book The Coming Collaspe of China might provide an interesting perspective, though I think it is written about 5 years too early.

Chinese protesters riot over rape and murder case 'cover-up'
Last Updated: 12:31AM BST 30/06/2008

Rioters in southwestern China set fire to government buildings and cars at the weekend after anger over a suspected cover-up by police of a schoolgirl's rape and murder escalated into violent protests.

Three state buildings were ransacked after the 15-year-old girl's uncle died following an alleged beating by police. The official Xinhua news agency said only that riots had broken out due to "dissatisfaction" over the investigation.

Pictures posted on internet blogs showed several thousand people gathered in front of the Wengan county police station, its windows shattered and smoke pouring from the building.

The Hong Kong-based Information Centre for Human Rights and Democracy said more than 10,000 people took to the streets, with up to 150 people injured in clashes.