USD 02 (Oct 09 - Sep 10)

[kennynah]

/DX is currently ~81.5, my target remains at 81.95 within the next 2 sessions..

/dx did a high of 82.20 last fri....before retracing back to 81.745... the article above explained the reasonings...

up until now...there's not been any official word by IMF/EU nations on the eur45bil financial aid package that greece finance minister has been working on getting while having weekend talks with IMF officials...

it's of cos now sunday 230am where they are... these are humans...also need to sleep...so, we may have to wait several more hours before we get any official words on this issue..

and in the meantime, USD pairs have just been ranged bound since 5am this morning...

[kennynah]

by end of tonight's trading session at 4am (+8 gmt), Dollar Index (/DX) hit a high of 82.51, a whisker away from 2010's highest price at 82.52...

but this obviously was directly correlated to the weakening of eur/usd during the session...

/DX could be a different animal altogether when Japan starts trading on Wed morning, since 1 of 6 parts (am not sure the weightings) that forms /DX is JPY...

good luck and HUat HUat
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edited at 530am... /DX shot up past 82.52 to 82.75 as of this writing..

[winston]

Weekly Review

The dollar was down a bit on the session (1.3306 Euros versus 1.3228 Thursday). If the number is higher, that means the dollar fell because it now takes more dollars per Euro. It did fall, but it is not a deadly fall.

It is easing back after a nice break higher. It was holding at the 10 day EMA, and there is no heavy selling going on. The dollar is acting as a safe haven for money from around the world. As Europe struggles, the dollar will, of course, be stronger.

There is a lot of worry about Europe, and that has bolstered the dollar when it was in a bit of trouble back in early April. It held up just fine and broke to a new high.


Source: MarketFN.com

[winston]

The Dollar Index have broke out of the 50% retracement of 83.

It's time to see how the Commodities would be affected.

[kennynah]

my chart shows 83.785 as a 61.8% immediate resistance..

/DX established an intraday day high of 83.78 coincidentally...

we all will have different fibo reading merely bcos we use different top/bottom pivot points...

[kennynah]

I recall Dol saying a significant surge is possible if 82.5 was breached..which clearly, it did

**********

(IGM)
The [USD INDEX] has spiked about 3% already this week to register a new 12-month high of 84.518(84.66 to be precise). Much of these gains have come by default vs the battered Euro (57.6% weight) on contagion, EMU sovereign debt crisis concerns. However, largely positive US data has played its part too, with a 60.4 ISM leading the way followed by strong pending home sales and factory orders. US economic recovery hopes are on the rise when concerns over Europe and the Euro project have seemingly never been higher. Bulls will inevitably be eyeing a charge on and break of the psychological 85.00, last breached Apr 23 2009, and then possibly 86.00 and 86.850/880 ahead. However, on a cautionary note, it is worth noting Fed's Rosengren was less than hawkish overnight (economy still susceptible to negative shocks, ultra-low rates still needed) and the US 10-year yield has fallen to 3.54%.

[kennynah]

dollar index no longer correlates negatively with eur.usd....be careful...

imho, /DX (dollar index) will fall next week

[winston]

Weekly Review

The dollar surged during the week against the Euro and most other currencies, but it lost a bit of ground on Friday (1.2732 Euros versus 1.2615 Thursday). It is worth noting that the dollar-to-euro ratio was near 1.5 just a month ago.

You do not see moves like this in the course of a month. You do not see them in the course of a year or even two years. These are incredible moves of course brought about by very palpable fears in the EU. There is nothing wrong the dollar chart other than it is over baked in the near term and rising much too high.

When there are such surges, there tend to be moves back down. I do not think it will cause any trouble for the dollar because there is nothing in the picture now to change its reason for moving higher. If the ECB says it will engage in some type of quantitative easing over the weekend, that could change the situation and push the dollar back down in a test of this move. That would not be anything unusual. A test after such a strong breakout is normal, and it would happen with the dollar as well.

Markets tend to react the same way whether they are stocks or currencies or what have you. The interesting thing about whether the ECB would engage in quantitative easing goes directly to its mandate. It does not try to balance inflation with maximum growth; its only mandate is to fight inflation.

That is why Mr. Trichet is somewhat reluctant to engage in quantitative easing even though the threat really is deflation. I say that even as producer prices in the UK showed there could be inflation picking up. Mr. Trichet is in a difficult situation right now, and I would not want his job.


Source: MarketFN.com

[kennynah]

No need worry so much. Complete one cycle trade first. Time to go fishing. Enjoy guys:)!!

[kennynah]

dollar index is weakening quite steadily for now...