US - Market Direction 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[kennynah]

23jun08 - Post Market Review

Quiet session....all 4 Indexes Volume markedly LOWER than previous session


DJIA lost 1 points @ 11,841
SP500 unchanged @ 1,318
Naz Comp lost 20 points @ 2,385


Nazdaq Composite - Daily Chart (Downward Trend Continuation)


Let's see when the Naz Composite Index weakness set in....


Nazdaq Composite - 15 mins Chart

[millionairemind]

Nasdaq went to fly a kite...

Technically, the rally attempt by Nasdaq is off as it undercuts its recent low...



Respect the market and what it is telling you to do...

[winston]

I'm happy if the US market goes thru a "Chinese Water Torture". Drip a bit everyday but no major crash. As long as it is two digits drop everyday on the Dow, it should be acceptable. Then I think some of us can make money thru stock-picking.

If it is a major drop, then all shares drop at the same time and one would not be able to make money thru stock-picking.

So is it a "drip drip" or a major crash of 20% coming ?

[kennynah]

my dear W :

So is it a "drip drip" or a major crash of 20% coming ?

maybe there's a last major push downwards, but on that very same day, the indexes pulled back upwards to end unchanged or even a slight +ve... that could be the signal that things will turn around... ie. we may be looking for a dramatic end to this bloodshed...

but until then, i just need to remember that i'm dealing with generally a downtrend cycle, and that my positions ought to biased in that direction... my girlfriend's name is Tran...

[winston]

Ha Ha... drip drip

Yes, the one day reversal would be the defining moment. Will think that it would come from either Oil or US Dollar. More like Oil..

[kennynah]

23Jun08 - Post Market Review (Part II)

I need your help with inputs on this HOURLY SP500 Chart....particularly,

a) please comment on whether we have an "oversold" situation, based on the RSI indicator at the bottom of the chart

b) based on your TA insight, what could be the likely scenario occuring next

domo many arigatoes in advance....


SP500 - 1 Hourly Chart (over 5 weeks)

[iam802]

K,

is there any reason to use a '5 weeks' chart? (u know I am new to TA...so , don't bash me up)

Cos', if I look further back, I saw that it is the same level as the low of March 31 (which has a huge rally after that). Strong support?

[kennynah]

802, thanks man....it's refreshing to have a TA view...appreciate your further inputs...

no specific reason for using a 5 week chart....

i see you your point, 1312 which was formed twice on 28 and 31Mar... that was a sort of "harami", a possible changing of direction 2 candles pattern...can be used as a TA explanation for the move up...

at that time, it was the start of a uptrend formation...which is different from this time, which is clearly on a downtrend...

i wont reject the possibility of 1312 being the next support... but i have no other indication that shows 1312 being a "strong" support, as you suggested. is there another TA indicator that might suggest this to be a strong support, from your end?

[millionairemind]

K - paiseh, I don't follow the oversold/overbot indicators cos' the mkt can be oversold and still break down VERY HARD....

I remember reading somewhere in one of Bill O'Neil's books on when the Nasdaq started crashing back in 2000... within a few months, all the technical indicators showed oversold situation which induced a lot of traders to go in and "buy and support" the mkt.. we know that Nasdaq took more than 2 years to finally deflat... and it was oversold all the way down..

[kennynah]

MM...noted with thanks...

but for the purpose of pattern/swing trades, i believe we can still use OB/OS indicator for micro term trades... and i can be super duper wrong here... i am lousy at OB/OS indicators...hence, must "invite bird" 请教 others here...

hi all :

lai leh...teach me can ? thanks.