US - Market Direction 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[kennynah]

18jun08 - Post Market Review

All 4 major indexes Volume were markedly HIGHER than previous day's


DJIA lost 131 points @ 12,029
SP500 lost 13 points @ 1,337
Naz Comp lost 28 points @ 2,429


Only like to highlight one chart today.....if I am correct in reading this chart, then i expect a bounce on DOW on 19Jun08 ...and that's a BIG "if i am correct"....

As usual, this is a sharing forum, and I welcome your TA views...


XLF - Finance SPDR ETF Daily Chart

[helios]

yeah ah-ken, u may be correct.

that's a long-legged doji, marked by e support held @ 22.50 - 22.25 (also crossed back to feb'17 & e harami formed - 4 days ago).

thanks.

[HengHeng]

still waiting for oil prices to ease before confirm but u are right to indentify a potential change

[millionairemind]

This Friday is Triple Witching day. It is an event that occurs when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the same day. Triple witching days happen four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.

The final trading hour for that Friday is the hour known as triple witching. The markets are quite volatile in this final hour, as traders quickly offset their option/futures orders before the closing bell.

The last Triple witching day resulted in DOW having a follow thro' day which ushered in the uptrend from March 20 to May 22, when this correction set in.

The indices are still attempting their rally........and the NYSE short interest ratio is still very high....

[winston]

Hi MM,

I'm trying to think thru this triple witching as well as Window Dressing. Still have not got it nailed down yet.

Intuitively, I think shares will rise due to the window dressing. Therefore, they should drag the options and futures along.

Theoretically, a BB can first buy some options and futures before buying the stocks. Thereafter, he can sell the options and futures. And after Window Dressing, he can sell the shares.

Too complicated for my simple mind

Take care,
Winston

[kennynah]

19jun08 - Post Market Review

All 4 major indexes Volume were HIGHER than previous day's


DJIA gained 34 points @ 12,063
SP500 gained 5 points @ 1,342
Naz Comp gained 32 points @ 2,460

Since Crude Oil did a small(comparatively) tumble of ~$5 to ~$131.50 ((key psychological support was @ $132)), i thought I bring up the Energy ETF


XLE >> Energy SPDR ETF Daily Chart



Also, let's revisit Nazdaq Composite Chart. I've stared at it since yesterday and after today's close....I came to a conclusion... So, please share if you see any dicernable pattern or signal here...


Nazdaq Composite Daily Chart

[winston]

For Nasdaq, I see the uptrend channel being breached about 8 days ago.

The green lines were clearly in an uptrend since late March until it was breached in early June..

[helios]

A. e Energy ETF formed a bearish engulfment (ah-ken pointed at e last 2 candles), but need confirmatn on 3rd candle if it's a tsutsumi-sage? using e trendline, it's closely supported @ 86.56, if break support, can act ...

B. as for Nasdaq, e candles r trust'g among e moving avg50 region [something good], last or 3rd candle, look @ that gap is closed, but not high enough on e half-way mark of e 2nd last: it could be a continuation pattern trending upwards, however this's only a relatively guess, as there aren't enough candles/ volume play to read this.

[millionairemind]

For those who are waiting to pick up more bargains, just a small word of caution.

The NYSE short interest ratio moved up 1.5 to a fresh 5-year high of 15.35 ytd. Something's gotta give. Either the shorts give up and cover, resulting in a strong rally or the bulls exhausted all their muscle and a bloodshed will start.....

Not a buy/sell recommendation... we all have to draw our own inference.

[learn2win]

MM,

Either the shortists covered and double long which resulted in a strong rally or the longists quitted and bloodshed occurs.

For me, I prefer to go to the cinemas.