HK - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Sep 14)

[millionairemind]

October 15, 2009, 6.49 pm (Singapore time)

HK Sept container traffic drops 20%, Q3 up 7.5% q/q

HONG KONG - Container traffic through Hong Kong, the world's third busiest port, fell more than 20 per cent in September from a year earlier, despite optimism that global trade is recovering from its deepest slump since the 1930s.

However, third quarter trade volumes rose 7.5 per cent to 5.61 million twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEU) from the April-June quarter, on improvements in July and August, preliminary data from the Hong Kong Port Development Council showed on Thursday.

'Global trade has been recovering and the question is how fast will the pace be?' said Jim Wong, an analyst at Nomura in Hong Kong.

The quarterly comparison would be more representative than a single month's data, which could easily be distorted by one-off factors, such as typhoon, he added.

The Hong Kong data came a day after China reported improving trade figures in September.

Economists expect China's exports will continue to improve in the fourth quarter but some doubt the momentum will last.

'We also think that sequential export growth will likely peak in Q4 this year, followed by a deceleration from the first half of next year,' said Jun Ma, chief economist, Greater China at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong handled 1.8 million TEU of goods last month, down 20.2 per cent from the same month last year and against 1.94 million TEU in August.

About 90 pe rcent of goods handled at Hong Kong's container port - from toys, clothings to electronic products - are re-exports, most of them shipped to or from China, the world's factory.

'Sequential export recovery (on a month on month seasonally adjusted basis) in China has already been very strong in the past four months, indicating a strong momentum,' Mr Ma said.

Container throughput at Hong Kong's neighbouring port of Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta fell 11.96 per cent to 1.77 million TEU in September but the contraction was the smallest since November, according to official Shenzhen data.

Ports in China's Yangtze River Delta, which rely more on domestic trade than Hong Kong and Shenzhen ports, posted growth in cargo volumes last month compared with a year earlier.

Cargo throughput at Shanghai rose 5.8 per cent year on year to 33.28 million tonnes last month, according to Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG).

In terms of box numbers, the world's second-busiest container port moved 2.22 million TEU in September. It fell 5.6 per cent year on year, but was the highest level this year and 1.6 perc ent higher than in August.

Container throughput at Ningbo also enjoyed a year-on-year increase of 9.4 per cent to 1.05 million TEU last month, according to Ningbo Port, the port operator of Ningbo. -- REUTERS

[millionairemind]

Oct 22, 2009
HK inflation rises

HONG KONG - HONG Kong's inflation rate in September rose 0.5 per cent from a year earlier, government figures showed on Thursday, mainly because an electricity bill subsidy program ended.

Excluding the subsidy, the southern Chinese city's inflation rate fell 0.3 per cent for September, the same as the previous month, according to the Census and Statistics Department.

The biggest year-on-year price declines were recorded for transport, food and durable goods, such as appliances and cars. The largest increases were in the cost of electricity, gas and water.

'Netting out the effects of the one-off measures, the underlying inflation rate remained slightly negative as local cost pressures were contained and imported inflation was virtually absent,' a government spokesman said in a statement.

The spokesman added that upward pressure on consumer prices should remain weak in the coming months. -- AFP

[LenaHuat]

Did any1 notice the big plunge in HK's export numbers?
It's worse than Singapore's of 7.6%

[LenaHuat]

During the fin crisis, I recall WeeChowYaw said he was scared. During APEC 2009, HK's CE also said he was scared abt the potential of asset bubbles in HK. 2day, the Chairman of the HK Exchange said this :-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a87Zzo8xhuJY&pos=6

[winston]

HK c.bank warns of asset price risk, fund inflows

HONG KONG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's central bank chief Norman Chan warned that Hong Kong asset prices could rise sharply next year and disconnect from fundamentals, raising the risk of a bubble, and surging capital inflows posed a dilemma across Asia.

"With interest rates exceptionally low and with abundant liquidity around the world, Hong Kong faces the potential risk next year that asset prices may go up sharply and become increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals," Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan wrote in an article published on the HKMA website.

"But we should bear in mind that many other Asian economies are also experiencing similar problems arising from substantial fund inflows and rising asset prices," Chan said.

"In theory, these economies could of course raise interest rates to contain inflation and increases in asset prices. But the fear is that once interest rates are raised the carry trade will become even more active, attracting even more fund inflows. Asian economies are therefore facing a dilemma."

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStock ... 4820091120

[kennynah]

"With interest rates exceptionally low and with abundant liquidity around the world, Hong Kong faces the potential risk next year that asset prices may go up sharply and become increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals," Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan wrote in an article published on the HKMA website.

such is the ebb and flow of global macroeconomics.... poverty to riches and riches to poverty.. a never ending cycle

[millionairemind]

HK is an open economy like Singapore's. If its going to be a double dip for HK, Singapore will not be spared either. If the stock market leads the economy by 6 months and HSI is off its peak.. then Singapore's STI...

Dec 29, 2009
HK economy may fall

HONG KONG - HONG KONG's Chief Executive Donald Tsang on Tuesday sounded a pessimistic note on the city's economic recovery, warning it may experience a 'double dip in the middle of next year.' Mr Tsang said from Beijing that Hong Kong's economic recovery 'would not proceed smoothly, and I am prepared,' according to Dow Jones.

'I am a bit pessimistic about the pace of recovery and we may experience a double dip in the middle of next year,' said Mr Tsang, who travelled to Beijing on Sunday to meet with Chinese leaders.

However, he said the city's government had a reserve of 500 billion Hong Kong dollars (S$90 billion), which was 'enough for two years worth of expenses,' RTHK reported.

The city's GDP grew 0.4 per cent in the three months ending September 30 compared to the second quarter, according to government statistics.

However, year-on-year, GDP fell 2.4 per cent for the third quarter, narrowing from the 3.6 per cent decline in the second quarter, the data showed. -- AFP

[winston]

Open season for the shorts to initiate their position on the HKD ?

[millionairemind]

January 4, 2010, 5.09 pm (Singapore time)

HK air pollution at 'life-threatening' levels

HONG KONG - Hong Kong's roadside air pollution reached life-threatening levels one in every eight days last year, a report said on Monday, citing figures obtained from the government.

The roadside air pollution index recorded by the Environmental Protection Department showed there were 44 days of 'very high pollution' in the Central district last year, the South China Morning Post said.

The figure was significantly higher than 39 days in 2008 and 13 days in 2005, the newspaper said.

'Very high pollution' levels - with the air pollution index exceeding 100 - can significantly aggravate the symptoms of people with heart or respiratory illness, the department said.

Healthy people may experience irritation to the eyes, wheezing, coughing and sore throats.

A roadside station in the densely-populated Mongkok district recorded 37 'very high pollution' days last year, compared to just one five years ago, the report said.

In Causeway Bay, another busy shopping and residential hub, the figure is up five-fold from 2005, reaching 25 days, the report said.

A department spokesman said the trend could be partly attributed to unfavourable weather conditions and that the index did not reflect the full picture.

'Selective picking of a certain range of Air Pollution Index readings for comparison will not give a fair and comprehensive picture of how air quality changes over the years,' a department spokesman said in a written reply to AFP.

However, a team of scientists said findings from their own research show that the roadside pollutant levels in Central were two or three times higher than the government figures.

'From the findings of our study, we can logically deduce that the number of 'very high pollution' days would be more than the (government's) figure,' said team leader Chak Chan, acting head of the environment division at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Mr Chan said their findings were more accurate because they used mobile measuring devices, while the government used stationary tools.

Air quality in Hong Kong continues to deteriorate due to emissions from the southern Chinese factory belt over Hong Kong's northern border and local emissions from power generators and transport.

The city has been wrapped in a thick blanket of haze for most days in recent months. -- AFP

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: HK Liquidity Inflow Major Concern in 2010 - JPM

1107 [Dow Jones] JPMorgan warns of potential "boom bust cycle" in Hong Kong amid ample liquidity, if real adjustment in prices overshoot economy's fundamentals; expects HKMA to continue to guard against excessive leveraging in mortgages.

"Liquidity inflow will be (a) major concern in 2010." Tips USD/HKD to "remain stuck" near 7.75 (low end of trading band 7.75-7.85) this year, as U.S. near-term zero interest rate policy, potential CNY rise (likely in 2Q) will continue to draw funds to HK; any change to USD/HKD peg is off HKMA's agenda.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire