US - Market Direction 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[kennynah]

12Jun08 - Post Market Review

Volume was HIGHER for the 3 below indexes. NYSE Composite was just a hairline Lower


DOW gained 58 points
SP500 gained 4 points
Nazdaq gained 10 points
NYSE Composite gained 6 points

The usual Indexes charts are getting boring.....we do something different this time...

Let's talk 2 things.....OIL and Financials

Let's start with black gold....

Oil is hurting everyone...everywhere... having an idea where Oil is heading gives us an idea on how to position our trades.... the 2 charts below ought to give that idea.... correlate the 1st and 2nd charts.....and then gel them into a story..... i like the story it is telling me....
what about you? do u see a meaningful relationship?


Crude Oil -- Daily Chart



SPDR Energy Sector ETF -- Daily Chart



and now, let's talk Financials sector


Financial Sector SPDR ETF -- Daily Chart



i believe the adage "buy low and sell high" is applicable...

i wish you all HUat HUat !!!

[kennynah]

so we were not talking cock..... didnt we give u the subtle hints.... here we dont tell u how to trade.... that's not our life's mission... our mission is and remains....

we give our views... members like GR, W, L, MM, 802, san, R, H2, chiron, etc....and u give us your tots...if u have any...huh !!!!

come to huatopedia....a place where we do not f**k u up but a place where I challenge your intellectual abiltiy....sia lan right? anyways....u have it, i seeu around...

if u have the b*lls....come here...and challenge our views...that's if u have that calibre ......

****************

and the above....was an intentional writing...

[HengHeng]

Don't look me so up .. i a permanent loafer and small boy as compared to many of the seniors in the forum. I just trying to earn ikan bilis or sweets money nia... but kudos to Winston , Kenny , MM and the rest for their selfless contributions.

Well i cannot do the same as least my skill still doesn't allow me to type and trade at the same time. But when i sense something wrong i would try to post though.

Currently i'm suspecting Oil might be poise for a big movement come next week but i'm not sure up or down anyway i have currently v less open exposure to anything. I'm considering putting some money in USD long termed and Euro/Aussie short term.

If oil prices were to drop like a fly probably stock markets would see a high rebound based on current scenarios .. Most markets has being dropping despite having no relations whatsoever to yahoo and msft as well as lehman brothers. Basically i believe market participants are being misled into having fear and when more and more people tell me that there are scared i'm would usually try to look into the other direction.

[millionairemind]

Dow 12,307.35 +165.77 (1.37%)
Nasdaq 2,454.50 +50.15 (2.09%)
S&P 500 1,360.03 +20.16 (1.50%)

All indices made good gains but on lower volume. You typically like to see indices move up on higher volume and pull back on lower volume, not the reverse.

Currently I see the indices moving up and down like kancheong spider caught in a web, kena pulled left and right by oil prices.

Market is still in a correction. Lets see how everything behaves next week.

HH might be correct on the oil moves. Perhaps oil might move down after some tough talk about inflation and a hawkish stand from the FED, resulting in a stronger dollar = falling oil prices (which is easily undermined by ECB's own tough talk on inflation)

Just be careful out there...

[winston]

Currently I see the indices moving up and down like kancheong spider caught in a web, kena pulled left and right by oil prices.

More like a chicken running around aimlessly..

This is only a technical rebound as it has dropped quite a bit for a week ..

[LenaHuat]

Currently I see the indices moving up and down like kancheong spider caught in a web, kena pulled left and right by oil prices.

More like a chicken running around aimlessly..

This is only a technical rebound as it has dropped quite a bit for a week ..

A little like a headless chick................and of course it could well be a dead cat bounce.
Sounds cliche but we might have to wait for 22 June in order to see the horizon.

[winston]

I'm still looking for a catalyst that would create a sharp drop in the US. That catalyst must be an " unquantifiable risk" for maximum fear eg. subprime in Feb or sars when people were dying in airplanes.

However, I have not been able to find such a catalyst yet. Every known risk that I know can be quantifiable..

If that is the case, perhaps the correction would not be a steep one but more like a "Chinese Water Torture" ?

Still cannot find that catalyst that will instill fear and turn eyeballs white..

Oil does not really qualify as it is a known risk and oil prices may be dropping. Weak US Dollar also does not qualify as it may have some strength in the short term.

So the direction could be a mild technical rebound for a few days..

[millionairemind]

W,

It seems to be that the catalyst that you are looking for is what is commonly referred to as The Black Swan event, named after a book by the same title. An out of the blue, unpredictable event that changes the course of history (like a 9/11 attack).

A "Chinese water torture" attack would be disastrous. Up 3 days on low volume, tanked 2 days on high volume... completely untradeable cos' there is no trend (super bad for trend followers like me ).

How about the following???

1) How about China starts to sell their USD reserves in the market, causing a tailspin effect on USD?

2) ECB raises rates in a sudden move to combat inflation, causing currency traders to short USD, long EUR.

3) A sudden supply crunch in the ME due to a simulltaneous attack on both Iraq and Saudi oil fields, resulting in a 15% cut in oil supply.

4) Chechens rebels disrupt the Gazprom's pipe gas that runs from Russia thro' Belarus into Europe. These simultaneous attacks shocked the oil to $220 in 2 weeks.

World economy crumbles and the US market tanks 25% in 5 trading days???

Dark enough for you??

Cheers,
mm

[kennynah]

13Jun08 - Post Market Review

In fact, I thought it appropriate that we review the entire week's index actions... I choose SP500 representative of the broader market index.

Here's what I see.... Please share your TA views...


SP500 Weekly Chart - Potential Bullish Signal




SP500 Mon - Fri 15Mins Charts

[HengHeng]

Beh ki jiu loh lor .. beh lou liaoz jiu ki lor ..

Basically this pick up has a very low volume , i would prefer to wait for confirmation before commiting .