Ezra 1 (May 08 - Dec 09)

[Chiron]

This counter no horse run

[Aspellian]

but always bear in mind that insiders (fund managers) are selling. . . .
there are also questions being asked on ezra's creative ways of accounting treatments.

enjoy the wild ride while it last! huat ah!

cheers!
<vested>

[Chiron]

Yap, two major funds were selling, but one of them just bought back into it.

TA chart looks beautiful

When there is zero risk appetite or fear in the market, only companies with strong balance sheet will be in favour, or best just stay in cash / short positions.

When general market risk appetite increases, companies with sexy growth stories benefits the most in the rally.

[Aspellian]

Yap, two major funds were selling, but one of them just bought back into it.

TA chart looks beautiful

When there is zero risk appetite or fear in the market, only companies with strong balance sheet will be in favour, or best just stay in cash / short positions.

When general market risk appetite increases, companies with sexy growth stories benefits the most in the rally.

hey Chiron,

I completely agree with what you say. i have strong affliations to companies with sexy story PROVIDED they meet the criteria of strong fundamentals FIRST! Cheers to you!

its understanding of Mr Market's (human)psycology of risk and reward that is so interesting.

[Musicwhiz]

I feel I have to say something here.

Yes, Ezra may have spun a very "sexy" story of fast growth with quick fleet expansion using sale and leasebacks, sale of EOC and more than one share placement. But I feel to classify it as using dubious accounting practices may be taking it a little too far. The accounting is based on FRS and it is because they were able to tap the capital markets (so many times) that these accounting entries arose. So though one may technically find all the exceptional gains etc confusing, it may not indicate presence of wrong-doing.

My advice: Just strip out ALL exceptionals and focus on core earnings and the picture becomes a lot less "sexy". I think growth of about 10-20% in core earnings over the long-term can be expected. I also think Ezra has always focused on its core earnings in its presentation slides and press releases, and has not misled the general public over supernormal profits derived from de-consolidation of subsidiary or sale-and-leaseback transactions.

That said, there is still a lot of debt in EOC's books, and that's not a good thing I admit. I want to know what they are going to do about it.

[Chiron]

hey Chiron,

I completely agree with what you say. i have strong affliations to companies with sexy story PROVIDED they meet the criteria of strong fundamentals FIRST! Cheers to you!

its understanding of Mr Market's (human)psycology of risk and reward that is so interesting.

Me no expert in accounting, hv looked thru their latest report and didnt find anything too suspicious. Need sifus like you for guidance ;p

[Chiron]

I feel I have to say something here.

Yes, Ezra may have spun a very "sexy" story of fast growth with quick fleet expansion using sale and leasebacks, sale of EOC and more than one share placement. But I feel to classify it as using dubious accounting practices may be taking it a little too far. The accounting is based on FRS and it is because they were able to tap the capital markets (so many times) that these accounting entries arose. So though one may technically find all the exceptional gains etc confusing, it may not indicate presence of wrong-doing.

My advice: Just strip out ALL exceptionals and focus on core earnings and the picture becomes a lot less "sexy". I think growth of about 10-20% in core earnings over the long-term can be expected. I also think Ezra has always focused on its core earnings in its presentation slides and press releases, and has not misled the general public over supernormal profits derived from de-consolidation of subsidiary or sale-and-leaseback transactions.

That said, there is still a lot of debt in EOC's books, and that's not a good thing I admit. I want to know what they are going to do about it.

10 - 20% growth yoy on core business is already an excellent job. Companies that has high debt is nv good for the long run if one cannot generate the high ROI. That said, when mkt improves, companies that carries the most debt but with good ROI will benefits the most. On the reverse, when in bear mkt, they also dropped the most.

Look at MGM & LVS, high debt business model, drop like a poo during 2008. Look at them now, rallying up strongly when mkt starting to get out of recession.

[winston]

Not vested. From OCBC:-

Ezra Holdings: Renewing charter rates; maintain BUY

Summary: Ezra Holdings (Ezra) announced on Friday that it has secured new and renewal charter contracts worth up to US$152m for three vessels. Under the contracts, the three Anchor Handling, Towing and Supply Vessels (AHTS) will be chartered out for operations in Southeast Asia for periods ranging from 5-6 years, inclusive of extension options.

The group foresees upward revisions in capital expenditures by global oil majors which will drive up demand for offshore support services. Ezra expects these contracts to contribute positively to earnings through FY10.

We like these contracts as these are long term in nature, thus imparting earnings visibility to its asset base. The geographical proximity will also aid in managing the fleet efficiently. We are maintaining our BUYrating and fair value of S$2.00. (Kelly Chia)

[Aspellian]

TOL: Yesterday during market downcast mood, Ezra have another strong up day on high vol. good sign. analysts scrambling to release new broker reports to keep up with share price. ridiculous in my opinion - fundamentals didnt change alot (ie. long term charters are ezra's key strategy), but since i am vested, i am happy to see these upgrades and BUY calls.

the key catalyst seems to be the management of vessels for funds - the concept is refeshing (mind-blowing?? not sure whether its done overseas). but having a young CEO in Lionel Lee means Ezra dare to try new opportunities.

let the ride continues. but get out when the market turns (which amazingly just gets stronger and stronger on US side). there will always be ups and downs in a roller coaster ride.

<pls take what i say with a bowl of salt - i am vested>

[Aspellian]

Once again, UBS reduced its stake from 5.11% to 4.92%...

trade with care - probably a JL is at work here pumping up prices for UBS and Moon Capital to dump their shares.....

reminding myself to have a strict stop loss.