Yangzijiang

[Aspellian]

QN: or is YZJ stock in distribution (high vol)? how to see whether someone is selling? I remembered reading somewhere that if share price closed at low of day or no movement but on very very high volume, then its covered distribution? right?

you might get a clue if you are able to actually scrutinize the buy/sale transactions ... the consolidated volume cannot give an accurate picture...

but how to breakdown and scrutinize the buy/sale transactions? can teach me how u do it?

i can only see whether the transactions are big lots or small lots , prob indicating big boys in action or not.. how to see beyond this?

[kennynah]

i oso duno.... but you should contact your brokerage about such matters...

[bulltick]

QN: or is YZJ stock in distribution (high vol)? how to see whether someone is selling? I remembered reading somewhere that if share price closed at low of day or no movement but on very very high volume, then its covered distribution? right?

you might get a clue if you are able to actually scrutinize the buy/sale transactions ... the consolidated volume cannot give an accurate picture...

but how to breakdown and scrutinize the buy/sale transactions? can teach me how u do it?

i can only see whether the transactions are big lots or small lots , prob indicating big boys in action or not.. how to see beyond this?

If you have subscribed to shareinvestor, you can look into volume distribution that will show the break down on buy up & sell down volume in 4 different transaction value groups.
If fund managers are selling/distributing, think they usually will sell down in big lot size instead of queuing to sell & vice versa for accumulation.

Hope this helps.

[kennynah]

bulltick....u spoonfeed...nice guy...and thanks...now i know...wahahahahaha...

[millionairemind]

A Bro,

I got a friend who is a day-trader. He watches the 1min chart to track price/vol action to see if it is a SPIKE UP... or SPIKE DOWN..

3 spike ups... he follows it to LONG and vice versa.

Depends on the counter - typically a few hundred lots considered as Spike.

Hope this helps.

Cheers,
mm

[Aspellian]

Winston, Knn, MM and Bulltick, Thanks !!

To summarise on distribution:
- BB usually distributes in down days rather than up days
- if volume super high but price hardly move - suspect distribution at work
- insider selling disclosure on SGX website (could be time-lag)
- volume breakdown - via shareinvxxtor website. BB usually buy up and in large bulk volume
- minute chart of price/volume - 3ups could be a spike (more applicable for day trader)

- if all else fails, sell when the stock dropped on high volume and cuts through 50DMA
- cut loss at 7% first - time to pay your insurance premium as you bought at wrong time (eg. market reversal)

[winston]

From CIMB:-

• Initiate with Underperform and target price of S$1.17. We initiate coverage on
YZJ with a non-consensus view that even flat earnings in FY11 could be overly
optimistic. The possibility of more deferral of orders and minimal new order wins in
2010 is still high. Our target price of S$1.17 is based on 11x forward CY11 P/E, in
line with YZJ’s average rolling forward P/E since listing.

• Share price recovery may not sustain. YZJ share price has surged by 124%
YTD, due to its better-than-expected execution relative to its Singapore-listed peers;
YZJ has no order cancellation so far and also, stronger margins. However, avoiding
cancellations is a defensive posture that cannot change as long as industry outlook
is weak. Our sector view remains cautious.

We expect deliveries of new vessels in 2010-2011 to result in a global supply glut, which caps future new orders. Clarkson estimates over 2,000 bulk carriers and 500 containerships to join the worldwide operations in the next two years, a 10-20% yoy increase in global capacity. YZJ has coped with the industry’s negatives well but that is also reflected in share price performance already. We question where the next positive catalyst will come from.

• US$2bn of orders at risk of deferrals. We estimate that US$2bn of YZJ’s order
book has deferral risk, even if outright cancellation can be avoided. The largest order is Cosco Shipping Group’s (Cosco) US$1.36bn order for 20 container vessels due for delivery in 2011-2012. Cosco announced that it may cancel or defer some of its new build orders after two consecutive quarters of operating losses. If Cosco defers its orders from YZJ till 2013, our FY11 EPS could be lowered by 35%.

[winston]

*DJ Yangzijiang Target Raised To S$1.36 Vs S$1.20 By DBS Vickers

[Aspellian]

The analysts really know how to make everyone confused by giving differing view points - some say to sell, and now dbs say to buy...

that is why analysts are the "true experts" of valuation!

[winston]

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding will also be eyed after the Chinese firm said its third-quarter net profit rose 17 percent from a year earlier, helped by strong ship orders.