Oil & Gas 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[HengHeng]

hahaha , hmmm make sense ... so i believe geoge soros did something to force markets to move where it moves. Reflexivity. Cause and effect.

He open mouth to testify that oil is mispriced and oil will go down. Then he tiam tiam go long , then later 10.30pm , inventory data come out worse.. oil chiong all katek die.

[blid2def]

Eh... no, haven't seen that.. Haha

In the story, the guy bought a lot of puts on an aircraft manufacturer, who was about to launch a new series of airplanes. Actually, it looked like the A380

Thereafter, the guy sent someone to bomb the airplane during the launch. However, that someone met Mr. Bond, who managed to stop the attempt..

The guy then lost US$100m on his puts as the new series of planes were launched successfully

LOL, suay man.

[kennynah]

hahaha , hmmm make sense ... so i believe geoge soros did something to force markets to move where it moves. Reflexivity. Cause and effect.

He open mouth to testify that oil is mispriced and oil will go down. Then he tiam tiam go long , then later 10.30pm , inventory data come out worse.. oil chiong all katek die.

haha...maybe...it's a shaker data.... last reading was -ve 8million...so i gamble...it will a build up in inventory this time...if i am wrong, i will take my losses...

[kennynah]

draw down >4mil again....

oil price up ...and then violently dropped....?????

let the dust settle...

************

04 Jun 2008 14:35 GMT

ENERGY: US EIA oil stocks for May 30: "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.8 million barrels from the previous week.

At 306.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range.

Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels last week but remain near the bottom of the average range.

Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

[kennynah]

ah ha....

*****

04 Jun 2008 14:37 GMT

BULLET: CRUDE OIL: WTI Nymex crude oil now selling off as....

CRUDE OIL: WTI Nymex crude oil now selling off violently as traders

note crude oil inventory data was distorted by imports. WTI Nymex crude oil is now at $122.95.

[HengHeng]

gasoline increase leh.

[kennynah]

basically....the price reflects the reality...now crude oil down >$1...and to you and me...that's what matters ultimately

[winston]

What is now unfolding is an oil shock. The fact that the world could take $80 in its stride in the context of strong economic growth does not mean that a price that is 60 per cent higher at a time of a credit crunch will be so easily assimilated.

Oil supply, one might think, should be responding. Yet there are three obstacles.

The first is time. These high prices have not been around all that long and development of new supplies takes many years.

The second is access to new resources.

And the third factor is what is happening to costs.
The public focuses on the price at the pump, but the oil industry is preoccupied, and indeed somewhat stymied, by how rapidly their own costs are rising – far exceeding the rate of general inflation.

The latest IHS/Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cera) Upstream Capital Cost Index – the consumer price index for the oilfield – shows that costs for developing a new oil or natural gas field have more than doubled in four years.

Some costs have risen even more: a deep-water drill ship might have cost $125,000 per day to rent four years ago. Today it goes for more than $600,000 per day – if you can find one.

– Daniel Yergin
Financial Times

[littlecupid]

I have a contrarian view of things.

Long term I am with the view it is up

Mid term view (1-2 years) I expect a crash in oil. There have been quite a few reports about the sustainability of supply from SA and decrease in demand by US, and the remove of subisdies by emerging markets eg. Indonesia and maybe Malaysia. Many Asian countries are also trying rein in inflation.
George soros have a view on this oil bubble.

In the short term, US and China will be stock piling oil reserve taking no risk as they have major events this year. Some traders told me that it is not surprising in the oil future markets that US / China take delivery, taking stock and wiping out excess created by speculators.

[kennynah]

hi littlecupid :

thanks for your inputs.

interesting view on a higher crude oil price in the long term.

do u mind sharing, what time frame you are referring to and to what level you forecast Oil will rise to?

thanks.

K