Trader's Thread 01 (May 08 - Dec 08)

Re: Trader's Thread

Postby bertyeo » Tue May 27, 2008 8:56 am

Strengthen Your Trading Mindset

1) Take Full Responsibility For Your Trading Decisions. Although most investors simply follow the crowd, successful traders make up their own minds. Always welcome good advice - yet remember that it's up to YOU to decide what's really

2) Avoid Over-Trading.

There are two types of over-trading - trading too often and trading too many shares.

If you are trading too often just remind yourself that there's really no good reason to trade constantly. Extreme over-trading creates stress, produces high commissions and invariably leads to losses. Instead of grabbing every stock that comes along, make sure each trade setup meets the criteria of your trading plan.

To prevent trading to many shares, always use a risk calculator to determine the appropriate position size before you click the enter button. It relieves stress to know that the amount at risk for each position you hold is safely proportioned to the size of your entire account.

3) Go Easy On Yourself. There's a tendency for traders who take responsibilty for their actions to be tough on themselves. Though some positive self-criticism is in order on occasion, don't slam yourself too hard or too often. Even the best traders make mistakes.

When you do, learn from them quickly and then let them go. Resist the temptation to yell at yourself. Self inflicted psychological damage is tough to overcome, so it's best to avoid it entirely.

4) Think Like A Winner. Thinking like a winner turns you into a winner. The sum of your thoughts has an interesting way of showing up in your life. Thoughts are like muscles. The ones you use the most will grow to become the strongest.

Pinpoint the thoughts you want to develop and focus on them regularly. Thoughts become actions, actions become habits, and habits determine results. Think of yourself as a success and you are much more likely to be a success!

5) Relax. Even though trading is serious business, the best traders know how to laugh - especially at themselves! Chill out, and give yourself regular breaks. This will keep your mind clear. Have fun as you earn - you certainly deserve it!
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Re: Trader's Thread

Postby kennynah » Wed May 28, 2008 4:02 pm

bertyeo : thanks for sharing

5) Relax. Even though trading is serious business, the best traders know how to laugh - especially at themselves! Chill out, and give yourself regular breaks. This will keep your mind clear. Have fun as you earn - you certainly deserve it!

this forum is a good chill out place and to have some laughs too....
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Re: Trader's Thread

Postby iam802 » Fri May 30, 2008 4:09 pm

From Van Tharp's newsletter

===========================

Make Friends with Your Inner Interpreter
by Van K. Tharp

Some of you may have seen this exercise before, but our experiences change over time so exercises like this are worth repeating.

Think about some problem you have with your trading. It could be almost any problem. Perhaps you have trouble taking profits too soon. You might get angry when a trade gets away from you. Perhaps you frequently second guess yourself. Whatever your problem is, write it down. You can apply this exercise with almost anything that you think might be a problem.

Once you have that problem, write down several statements about the problem. Why do you think you had the problem? What caused it? What’s your reaction to the problem? Your statements could be almost anything. You might say things like: “Why do I keep doing that?” “That behavior just shows that I’m stupid.” “I just can’t seem to control myself.” “The problem is really nothing, but it just seems to continually repeat itself.”

These statements are all your interpretation of the problem. In fact, without this interpretation, you probably wouldn’t even have a problem. Thus, perhaps it’s important to now work with your inner interpreter.

You need to use your imagination with this exercise. Be willing to play like a child.

1. Now that you have listed a problem and some statements about it, ask yourself how you can best explain the way the problem happened. Perhaps you’ve already done that with one of your statements. If not, that’s your next statement. Write down what you hear. In addition, notice the qualities of the voice making the statement. Where do you hear the voice—which direction does it come from? Whose voice is it? Is it your own? Is it someone else’s voice?

2. Now find two more problems and repeat step number one. Make sure that the problems have some emotional significance for you.

3. Look at the three statements you’ve written about how your three problems happened. What do they have in common? Notice how permanent and how pervasive the statements are. Also notice the overall personality behind the voice.

4. Rewrite the three statements and make them more optimistic, specific to a time or occasion, and to the place that they happened. Also make them impersonal so as to separate them from your behavior.

5. Let’s assume that a part of you—your inner interpreter—is responsible for these statements. Where does this part of you seem to live? Notice, once again, where the voice seems to come from.

6. Think of this part of you as a friend that you created for some positive intention. Thank your part for helping to bring you to where you are today. It’s really been a friend to you and you need to acknowledge it.

7. Once again, now that you are in communication with your inner interpreter, ask it to come up with some even more positive excuses for your three experiences.

8. Move your interpreter voice to some other part of your body—say your right shoulder. Change the tone of the voice. Make it sound like a cartoon character or a famous celebrity that you like. Try moving it again and giving it still another new voice. Listen to that voice go over your new excuses and perhaps some even more optimistic ones.

9. Notice how you feel about your interpreter now.

10. Now let your inner interpreter go to where it feels best. That may be its original spot or it may be some new place in your body. Give it the voice you find most reassuring.

If you get stuck in this exercise, it is okay to make up an interpreter. When you do so it will still have a beneficial effect. In fact, you really never make up anything. When you make something up, you are just bringing it up from your unconscious mind.

You’ll find that you suddenly have much more control over your feelings when you do this. Your interpretations are never reality. Instead, they are just judgments, feelings, or beliefs about some particular event. They feel real because they give you an emotional response. But emotions have nothing to do with reality. They are simply coming from you.

The nice thing about such interpretations is that they are changeable. They cost nothing to change, but give you tremendous benefits. It’s now time to put your inner interpreter on your side. After all, it is your friend.

Here’s how one person, let’s call him Bill, went through this exercise. When he thought of a problem, it was the criticism he got from his spouse whenever they talked about trading. He could hear her voice in his head, saying, “trading is nothing but gambling — it’s a waste of time and has no redeeming values."

When Bill wrote down some statements about the problem, he came up with the following.

• I married the wrong woman. She’s an idiot and she just doesn’t understand.

• Her parents instilled an old work ethic in her and trading doesn’t fit that work ethic—that’s why she gets upset.

• She wants security and she doesn’t feel comfortable when I tell her about trading.

He noticed that the voice was kind of high pitched and always seemed to come from the right side of his head. It even seemed to be coming from an elevated position down into his head. When he repeated the exercise with several more problems, the voice had the same qualities and came from the same place.

When he tried to move the voice, he first put it in his throat and made it raspy. This didn’t feel comfortable at all. However, he didn’t have any problem moving it between his eyes and giving it a child’s voice. This seemed very comfortable.

When he made new, more optimistic interpretations of situations, he found that it was quite easy when he kept the voice in this position. As a result, he decided to give his inner interpreter a new home. Now this part seems to appreciate him much more and gives him very few problems.

Try this interpreter exercise at least once a week for the next four weeks. Notice what happens after you do it and keep practicing. You could be adding a very valuable tool to your life.
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: Trader's Thread

Postby winston » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:12 pm

Let The Profits Ride: Methods of Long Term Trading
By Billy Fisher

With the market's recent volatility, it can be easy to lose perspective and focus too much on day-to-day price swings. Due to the volatility, there is certainly ample opportunity for making short-term plays, but closing out positions prematurely can become costly over the long run.

Long term or position traders are not looking to get in and then back out of a position in the same day. They can hold a position anywhere from several days to several months. Position traders tend to be active traders that have some time to devote to their investments each day, but are not looking to analyze the hourly movements of each stock in their portfolio. They are looking to track notable changes in their investment holdings over time.

Position traders use information such as financial reports, industry analyses and SEC filings to make their investment decisions. The Internet has also made it easier for position traders to listen to archived conference calls or management presentations at their convenience. From a technical standpoint, they might utilize price charts and technical indicators such as channels and moving averages.

One example of a strategy that a position trader might use is taking a long position in a stock that has just broken above its Donchian channel from the previous 20 trading days. Donchian channels were named after the commodities and futures trader Richard Donchian. The channels essentially set out price levels for traders to use as guidance in making buy and sell decisions.

The upper band of the channel is plotted using the highest high from the previous 20 trading sessions. The lower band is plotted using the lowest low from the previous 20 trading sessions. When a stock moves above its 20-day high, this movement is often viewed as a signal to buy. When it moves below its 20-day low, this fluctuation would be a sign to sell.

Another example of a strategy that a position trader might use is buying or selling a stock upon a moving average crossover. To generate buy and sell signals for this strategy, two exponential moving averages (EMA) are calculated. For instance, a 30-day EMA might be calculated along with a 100-day EMA. Using a 30/100 EMA strategy, the trader waits for the 30-day EMA line to cross above the 100-EMA to buy. Should the 30-day EMA line cross back below the 100-day EMA line, this move would be interpreted as a bearish sign.

In addition to utilizing the aforementioned tools and strategies, position traders might also decide to employ the use of options or LEAPS. Options and LEAPS are beneficial to position traders on multiple fronts. Call options and LEAPS call options are advantageous in that they allow the trader to gain exposure to the price movement of a specific security without the obligation of directly owning the underlying asset. Put options and LEAPS put options can be used by the position trader for added protection against market downswings.

The advantages of position trading are that the position trader does not need to do as much homework as a day trader and the position trader also does not need to monitor the market's fluctuations on an hour-by-hour basis.

There are disadvantages to position trading. One of the biggest drawbacks is overnight exposure. By holding a stock for several days to several months, position traders are subject to fluctuations occurring as the result of news or events that occur in pre-market and post-market hours. Another disadvantage to position trading is that such a strategy may cause the investor to forgo time-sensitive, intraday opportunities that arise throughout the course of a trading session. The nature of this style might also lead the position trader to be less nimble in reacting to market trends than would a day trader.

Is position trading right for you?
Traders who have a good amount of time and resources at their disposal, may prefer the action and speed of the day-trading game - or even aggressive swing trading. But for most everyday investors that are willing to putting in a reasonable amount of time into tracking their holdings, the position trading approach might be the way to go.
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Re: Trader's Thread

Postby winston » Wed Jun 04, 2008 4:18 pm

If anyone is trading warrants, you may want to be careful towards the end of the trading day.

Some market makers have a tendency to put very high bid / ask spread towards the end of the trading day.

This happened to me today. I was waiting for the last 2 minutes before getting out. Suddenly, the market maker had a high bid / ask spread and thereafter, disappeared altogether :(.

We will know tomorrow, whether it is divine intervention or not... :?
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Re: Trader's Thread

Postby millionairemind » Wed Jun 04, 2008 4:43 pm

W,

I have a friend who traded options and futures only.. Not sure where you got your HSI warrants, whether in Singapore or HK.

He has this to say... the MMs are disinclined to let you profit from warrants cos' they know how many are issued and how many are bought.. He has 3 times been screwed by the MMs when he bot alot of calls.. the index went up but MMs did not adjust accordingly..

He was so angry that he went to meet the MM in person.. The MMs(being a "nice person") told him subtlely that index warrants are rigged in favor of the issuer.. they can fail to adjust accordingly or if they know alot of ppe. bot calls and index cheong, they will put a small buy/sell Q for that particular warrant.

I am not sure how true it is but I took his advice to avoid trading index warrants cos' he is more experienced than me.

Cheer,
mm
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: Trader's Thread

Postby winston » Wed Jun 04, 2008 4:55 pm

Hi MM,

I think what you say is true. I've seen that happening a few times already.

However, it is just like playing roulette. I know the probabilities are stacked against me but I still like to play :(.

Anyway, the only way that I can bet that the market is going down is thru Put warrants on either individual companies or on the index. I'm unable to short stocks due to residency requirements.

As for call warrants, I should really avoid them and instead, buy the shares of the companies.

Thanks,
Winston
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Re: Trader's Thread

Postby kennynah » Wed Jun 04, 2008 4:56 pm

MM : that "MM" is you ? hahaha....you issued the warrants and "controlled" the pricing model... :lol: :lol: joking lah...

but on a serious note...

W : u r very well aware of this...the major banks and coporations are purely looking to profit the premiums of issuance. No retail (unless one has a "private" banking account and even so, it is not also the case) investor can ever "write" any warrants.
As such, the market makers absolutely control the pricing of the warrants.... it is no longer market forces at play here...when underlying increase, they can do many many things to justify why the warrant price do NOT move or even slide. Adjusting any of the option greeks will have an immediate impact of the warrant prices. I am also of the opinion that it is very disadvantageous to trade asian warrants. It is a very unfair to and skewed instrument againt retailers.
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Re: Trader's Thread

Postby kennynah » Wed Jun 04, 2008 5:00 pm

winston wrote:Anyway, the only way that I can bet that the market is going down is thru Put warrants on either individual companies or on the index.
As for call warrants, I should really avoid them


Dear W : I wonder why you hold this opinion that a it's ok to Long Put warrants but not Calls ?
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Re: Trader's Thread

Postby winston » Wed Jun 04, 2008 5:22 pm

kennynah wrote:1) As such, the market makers absolutely control the pricing of the warrants.... it is no longer market forces at play here...

2) I am also of the opinion that it is very disadvantageous to trade asian warrants. It is a very unfair to and skewed instrument againt retailers.


I will check with my friend who is a warrant trader in HK. I would think that if the Market Maker is rigging things against the retail investors, there would be another group of Professional Traders who would be betting against those Market Makers.

BTW, I trade my warrants in HK, the world largest market for warrants. And I only trade warrants that have high turnover. I avoid warrants in Spore as my account is at UOB-Kay Hian and they do not allow me to trade warrants online.

kennynah wrote:3) Dear W : I wonder why you hold this opinion that a it's ok to Long Put warrants but not Calls?


This is going back to (1) and (2) where the warrant market is rigged against me. If I want to long a stock, I can buy the share instead of a call warrant.

However, I cannot short a stock due to residency requirements. So the only way to short a stock or index, is thru buying a put warrant, eventhough the odds are stacked against me.

The ideal situation is to short warrants ( both calls & warrants ). They use to allow it in Singapore. Not sure whether they still allow it....
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