Did this post for some friends who invested in DBS. Here's to share for everyone:
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DBS halt trading early this morning and rumors are flying about as to what is the actual reason for the trading halt. I thought that DBS will be settling the troubled bonds issue today, as the relevant authorities mentioned that an answer would be made at the end of this month. But that was not the reason for the trading halt. The real reason caught me a little by surprise.
DBS announced that it is going to raise capital to the tune of SGD 4 bil by issuing rights shares to existing shareholders. Rights exercise is basically an attempt to raise capital from exisiting shareholders by granting them an entitlement to buy additional shares at a discounted price. There are a few things that are important in a rights issue, and I take this chance to share with you what I know about it.
These are the few things you need to know:
1. Rights ratioDBS are offering rights shares at a one-for-two ratio, which means that for every two pre-rights shares that you have before ex-rights (XR), you will be entitlted to apply for one more rights issue at the rights issue price of $5.42, a discount to the last close of $9.37 today. This means that for every 2 lots of DBS shares you own before XR, you'll need to pay $5,420 to get your entitlement of 1 lot of DBS rights shares.
2. Nil paid rightsThe rights shares will commence trading as 'nil-paid' rights on 6th Jan 2009. As the name 'nil-paid' suggests, it means that you haven't paid for the rights yet. The rights will trade in the open market with its own quotation and symbol. Basically this system caters for 3 types of people:
a. Those who are already shareholders at XR and do not want to pay for the rights. The thing goes like this, whether you want it or not, you'll be given the nil paid rights. If you want to subscribe to it, you can do so by accepting it and paying for it before 20th Jan 2009 (last date for acceptance). You can even subscribe to excess rights beyond what is entitled to you too, but it might not be successful. For those who do not want the nil-paid rights (i.e. do not want to accept the rights shares and pay for it), you can sell it in the open market. The last date of trading for the nil paid rights is 14th Jan, 2009. Which brings us to the next category...
b. For those shareholders who want to make sure they can get excess rights shares without bidding for it (and thus subjecting to chance), they can also buy the nil paid rights direct from the open market. Of course, if you subscribe to excess rights and bid for a chance to get it, you'll only pay $5.42 for each right. But if you buy from the open market, you have to pay the market price of the right PLUS a fixed $5.42. Might not be so cheap.
c. Those who are not DBS shareholders at XR but want to buy the nil paid rights at open market. Basically these arbitrageurs will look for opportunities to buy the rights cheaply, waiting for the nil-paid rights to become ordinary shares on 2nd Feb 2009, then profit (or lose) the difference.
However, do not be mistaken that the nil paid rights will be trading at the rights issue price of $5.42. If we take the post-rights price of DBS to be $8.37 (as mentioned in the announcement), then the nil paid rights should be trading at around $2.95 range (8.37 - 5.42 = 2.95). DO NOT assume that it's cheap - it might not be!
For example, if we buy the nil paid rights off the market at $2.90 per share (this varies according to market forces), then pay another $5.42 per share (this is fixed) to convert it to ordinary shares, our cost of each new share of DBS will be $8.32. There's no brokerage involved so that is truly our cost. If after the new shares commence trading on 2nd Feb 2009 at a price of $8.37, we basically earn $0.05 per share (8.37 - 8.32 = 0.05) excluding brokerage involved in selling. To succeed in this arbritrage opportunity, we have to guesstimate the price of DBS on 2nd Feb, then minus off 5.42. Any price lower than that is a good bargain, pre brokerage charge.
3. The theoretical post-rights price of DBS on 2nd Feb 2009If you've been in the market for long, you'll realise that 'by right', the price can be this and that, but 'by left', all is not right. Oh well, in theory, because DBS is offering 1 new shares for every 2 existing shares, they are going to dilute their earnings and dividends by a factor of 2/3, which is quite substantial for those who are shareholders but chose not to subscribe for the rights. This means that if the earnings is say $3 per share pre-rights, the new earnings will be $2 per share post-rights. Dividends yield too, if their dividend yield per annum is say 6%, the new dividend yield will be 4%. Ouch.
Anyway, here's how to calculate the new share price of DBS when the rights shares commence trading on 2nd Feb. Today, DBS closed at $9.37, so let's use this price. The formula is:
New share price of DBS = (2 x 9.37 + 5.42) / 3If we take DBS's closing price to be 9.85, then using the calculation, we end up with the post rights share price of DBS at 8.37 per share. However, do take note that the actual price will be swayed by more than just mathematical calculations, hence it might not be what is calculated. Be aware of the risk of arbitraging!
There's a whole lot more details that I missed out, so for those who wished to find out more, do visit my newbie's FAQ (
http://pub11.bravenet.com/faq/show.php? ... 1976&cpv=2). Alternatively, you can visit the same version in this blog (
http://bullythebear.blogspot.com/2007/1 ... s-faq.html) over here.