by millionairemind » Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:32 am
Singapore Post
Buy
OCBC Investment Research
Jan 2
Close: $0.795
IN POST we trust: Singapore Post is the country's designated public postal licensee. It provides domestic and international mail services and logistics in the domestic market. Its global service offerings cover more than 220 territories and countries. Leveraging on its retail distribution network, SingPost also provides agency and financial services. In H1 FY2009 (the six months to Sept 30, 2008), the group achieved a 4.3 per cent y-o-y rise in revenue to $241.6 million but reported a 1.5 per cent fall in net profit to $76.9 million. Excluding one-off items, underlying net profit was 11.5 per cent higher at $77.7 million.
Despite the liberalisation of the basic mail services market in April 2007, SingPost remains the dominant postal services operator. Only it can hold the masterdoor keys to letterboxes provided by property owners and developers, including those in Housing & Development Board estates, as dictated by the Infocomm Development Authority. With other advantages like an established distribution network, significant free cash flow, a monopoly on stamp issues and an entrenched brand name, we reckon liberalisation should have limited impact on SingPost.
SingPost has stable operating and free cash flows, given the nature of its business. It has also been increasing its dividend per share since its listing in 2003, to $0.0625 in FY2008. Amid the uncertainty in today's stock markets, its earnings are comparatively defensive. Although mail volume growth may be affected by e-substitution and the slowing economy, SingPost has taken pro-active measures, as evidenced by its initiatives and diversification of services.
The defensive nature of SingPost's business and its dominant market position render it an attractive investment. Its pro-active measures demonstrate its resolution to safeguard its profits, making it an even more compelling stock. Moreover, with a long list of properties under its name, SingPost may be able to unlock asset value when the time is ripe. We initiate coverage of SingPost with a 'buy' recommendation and $0.93 fair value. SingPost has a dividend policy of a minimum of $0.05 per share per year, implying at least a 6.3 per cent yield. Assuming SingPost continues its $0.0625 dividend per share in FY2009, this would imply a 7.9 per cent yield, which is attractive given its defensiveness.
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch
Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.