Oil & Gas 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[HengHeng]

COTs register a high shorts on commericals .. LOL ..

[kennynah]

H2, how far back is this data of COT shorts? data over the last weekend or been for 2 weeks? thanks.

[HengHeng]

u can check last fridays COTs and compare it with the prior 2 weeks.

[kennynah]

ok..thanks...i assume u meant net shorts by commercials gone up in last 2 weeks.

[HengHeng]

sort of ... net shorts i meant .. can be lesser longs as well .. not so sure

[kennynah]

28 May 2008 09:25 GMT
Oil slides amid profit-taking as market eyes U.S. gasoline demand UPDATE


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Oil continued to fall following Tuesday's sell-off, as investors took profits after last week's record highs, and amid fears over slowing crude demand from the world's biggest energy consumer, the United States.

Analysts say high prices at the pump may curb U.S. consumers' demand for gasoline going into the usually peak-demand summer driving season. Figures released yesterday show U.S. consumer confidence has dipped to its lowest level since 1992.

At 10:02 a.m., New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery was down $1.92 at $126.96 a barrel. In London, Brent crude for July delivery was down $1.66 at $126.65 a barrel.

"It is the US market which has been the centre of most attention, as with each passing week it seems fewer drivers are taking to the roads," said analyst Ed Meir at MF Global.

"A national poll conducted by a consumer credit card information company showed for example, that four out of five Americans are saying that the gas crisis has caused them to cut back on their driving in some way."

According to a report from the Federal Highway Administration released last week, vehicle miles travelled on U.S. roads fell 4.3 percent in March from a year before, the first year-on-year fall since 1979.

"Consumers in the U.S. are finally altering their behaviour," said Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report trading note.

Signs are also emerging that high prices are starting to affect demand in Europe and key emerging Asian economies.

According to analyst Meir, Indonesia, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh have all either raised or threatened to raise subsidised fuel prices, while India is also contemplating a move to increase tariffs.

Meanwhile protests have broken out over higher fuel costs in France and the United Kingdom, with British truckers on Tuesday protesting in London and on the M4 to Cardiff, and French fisherman blockading ports and disrupting activity at France's largest oil refinery.

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling are set to meet oil industry leaders later in the day to discuss soaring fuel prices.

Crude costs have risen by more than one-third since the beginning of the year, reaching a high of $135.09 a barrel in New York last week.

The market has been spooked by real and threatened supply disruptions, and tightening stockpiles amid expectations of continuing firm demand from key consumers China and India.

The market has been helped to record highs in recent weeks by strength in the distillates market, which includes diesel and heating oil. However, profit-taking on distillates has caused prices of these products to ease, undermining their support for crude.

"Without the upward pull of the heating oil, we feel that the crude market will have difficulty sustaining price rallies to above the $130 mark," said Ritterbusch & Associates chief Jim Ritterbusch in a note Tuesday night.

[iam802]

SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - World oil prices retreated but stayed above $130 in Asian trade on Thursday amid growing jitters about falling U.S. gasoline consumption due to skyrocketing pump prices.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, fell 44 cents to $130.59 per barrel.

The benchmark contract shot up $2.18 to close at $131.03 on Wednesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

London's Brent North Sea crude for July delivery slid 80 cents to $130.13 a barrel, after settling at $130.93 on Thursday. The contract had rallied $2.62 at the close.

Tony Nunan, of Mitsubishi Corp's international petroleum business in Tokyo, said the retreat was due to "regular volatility", sparked by news of lower gasoline demand in the United States, the world's largest oil-consuming nation.

"Oil prices are getting to levels where they are starting to affect demand negatively," he said. Traders were looking ahead to the weekly report on U.S. energy stockpiles due later Thursday, after a public holiday in the United States on Monday.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Wednesday warned that the world was facing a "great oil shock" that requires a comprehensive international strategy to address.

The British leader's warning came a day after French President Nicolas Sarkozy urged a Europe-wide cut in consumer taxes on fuel as fears of rising energy costs spark unease around the world.

The price of oil on international markets has surged by about a third since the start of 2008 and compares with $50 per barrel 18 months ago.

A top economic adviser to U.S. President George Bush warned that rising oil prices could further crimp economic growth in the United States.

"I think the high price of oil has already cost us a significant amount in terms of economic growth," said Edward Lazear, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.

Lazear said red-hot oil prices would continue to dent economic growth unless something is done about the runaway values.

Analysts said increased speculative trading in the oil markets has been driven by tight global supplies and a weaker dollar, which makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency cheaper for buyers armed with stronger currencies.

Surging oil prices have also been underpinned by growing demand in China and other emerging economies, as well as unrest in crude-producing countries, particularly Nigeria, and OPEC's reluctance to hike output, analysts said.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil, has proven reluctant to bend to U.S.-led demands for it to pump more crude to help cool prices.

afp/ms MMMM

[kennynah]

oil slightly down at 130.13 (down 90cts)....615pm 29may +8gmt

29 May 2008 10:11 GMT
French Riot Police Clear Fishermen From Marseille Oil Depots
MARSEILLE, France (AFP)--French riot police Thursday removed groups of striking French fishermen from several oil depots near Marseille, as a core of determined fleets kept up their protests over fuel prices.

While Channel coast and Atlantic fleets have called off their strike pending a European Union meeting to tackle the fishing crisis next month, fleets in northwestern Brittany and the Mediterranean have kept up their protests and blockades.

Groups of strikers were removed at dawn from the Mediterranean oil depots of Fos-sur-Mer and Lavera, as well as a Total SA (TOT) refinery in La Mede, which have been blockaded on-and-off for three weeks, said union leader Frederic Mateo.

Mediterranean fishermen have voted to prolong their strike until at least Monday, despite a boosted government offer of aid for the industry.


((truncated))

[kennynah]

as if the militants threats to disrupt production lines is not bad enough...now shell's worker union also LONG oil...kennynah

***********

29 May 2008 10:22 GMT


Nigeria Oil Union Threatens Strike Over Shell Restructuring
IBADAN, Nigeria -(Dow Jones)- A Nigerian oil workers' union Thursday threatened a nationwide strike over the ongoing restructuring at Shell Petroleum Development Co. of Nigeria, or SPDC, the president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria said.

About 3,000 members of the union are to be laid off in the restructuring exercise, Pengassan president Babatunde Ogun told Dow Jones Newswires.

"We will declare a strike and cripple the industry if there are attempts to force our members out of Shell," Ogun said.

"My union is saying that any Shell staff that is ready to work should not be laid off, those wishing to leave voluntarily can do so," he said.

SPDC said it embarked on the reorganization, restructuring, and cost-cutting measures as the Niger Delta crisis takes a toll on its operations. SPDC is part of Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA).

Shell is the largest crude oil producer in Nigeria, able to produce about 1 million barrels a day, but it is reported to be producing half that because of attacks on its facilities by armed militants in the Niger Delta.

A Shell official Thursday said the company was consulting the oil workers' unions over the changes.

"We have held consultations with the unions, we have explained to them why there has to be a change in the company," Shell spokesman Precious Okolobo told Dow Jones Newswires.

"It is too early to comment on the number of Shell staff that will be affected by the restructuring, but the exercise is in progress," he added.

The Nigerian government in February directed SPDC to suspend its restructuring until its oil and gas industry reform is completed.

A senior SPDC official said Shell was experiencing a lull in its activities in the Delta and Rivers States, where several installations had been vandalized and put out of use by militant groups.

Pengassan's Ogun said the union has told all Shell employees who hadn't qualified for a pension not to accept severance pay and not to leave the company's employment, unless they want to.

"Anybody that is not pensionable will not leave Shell unless he elects to go. Anybody that has worked for Shell and believes he still has something to offer will not go. We will not allow Shell to intimidate or harass our members," Ogun said.

He urged the Nigerian government to intervene again in the matter.

[kennynah]

sorry very long...

29 May 2008 12:50 GMT

EIA: US March Crude Imports -7% Vs Year Ago
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. crude oil imports fell 7%, or 730,000 barrels a day, to 9.618 million barrels a day in March, revised data from the Energy Information Administration show Wednesday.

Preliminary figures had shown a drop of 9.3% from a year ago and March imports as the lowest in any month since February 2007. But the revised data show a modest 12,000-barrels-a-day rise from February 2008 compared to a preliminary figure that showed a drop of 221,000 barrels a day from a month earlier.

Still, crude imports in March were the lowest for the month since 2003. First-quarter imports of 9.741 million barrels a day were 1.2%, or 122,000 barrels a day, below a year ago and the weakest since the 2003 first quarter.

EIA said separately imported crude oil prices in the quarter averaged $89.32 a barrel, up 68% from a year ago, while March imports cost an average of $95.73 a barrel.

The weak March 2008 figure compares with the highest-ever March import level of 10.348 million barrels a day a year ago.

Canada was the top supplier for the 25th straight month, but imports were the lowest since December 2007, the data show. Crude imports from Canada averaged 1.795 million barrels a day, accounting for an 18.7% share of total crude imports, down from 20% a month earlier.

Canada was also the top supplier of total crude oil and petroleum products imports to the U.S. in March. Canada supplied 2.542 million barrels a day of total oil imports, up 10.3% from a year ago, and the most since January.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, was the No. 2 crude supplier to the U.S., topping Mexico for the eighth straight month. Imports from Saudi Arabia were 4.9% below February but 26.2% above a year ago.

First-quarter crude imports from Saudi Arabia were the most since the 2005 first quarter, up 16.3% from a year ago.

Crude imports from Mexico were little changed from a month earlier, at 1.232 million barrels a day, the weakest since September 2002 and down 24% from a year ago. Mexico is struggling to counteract a decline in its key Cantarell oil field.

First-quarter crude imports from Mexico were down 17% from a year ago, at 1.220 million barrels a day, the lowest level for the quarter since 1996.

Crude imports from Nigeria, the fourth-place supplier, jumped 17.5% in the month to 1.154 million barrels a day, the most since December 2007. Nigeria's light, sweet crude oil is particularly prized for its high gasoline yields as refiners ramp up operations ahead of the peak summer driving season. The jump in imports precedes recent civil unrest that disrupted output in the oil-producing region and may lead to lower imports in future reports.

First-quarter crude imports from Nigeria lag the year-ago period by 4.7%.

Venezuela's imports fell 17.2%, or 178,000 barrels a day, from the year-ago period to 858,000 barrels a day, the lowest level since February 2003, when the oil industry was struggling to rebound from a crippling strike. First-quarter imports were -5.1% on the year.

Declining U.S. imports from Venezuela come as Caracas has refused to sell crude oil to Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) in a dispute over nationalized assets.

Exxon and state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA jointly operate the 185,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Chalmette, La. Data show the joint venture imported just 3,161 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in March, down from more than 17,000 barrels a day in February and nearly 37,500 barrels a day in January.

Exxon didn't import any Venezuelan crude in March - the first full month since the dispute - compared with nearly 33,000 barrels a day in February and 97,000 barrels a day in January.

Imports from Iraq dipped 0.9% from a month earlier to 773,000 barrels a day. First-quarter imports of Iraqi crude were 50.2% above the year-ago period, at 697,000 barrels a day.

Crude imports from OPEC member countries in March were down 3.4%, or 191,000 barrels a day, at 5.474 million barrels a day. OPEC's share of total crude imports was 57%, up from 54.7% a year ago.


EIA - Top 10 U.S. Crude Oil Import Sources In March

Mar Feb Mar 1Q 1Q
08 08 07 08 07
Canada 1.795 1.920 1.780 1.863 1.825
Saudi Arabia 1.535 1.614 1.216 1.541 1.325
Mexico 1.232 1.231 1.621 1.220 1.475
Nigeria 1.154 0.982 1.290 1.097 1.156
Venezuela 0.858 0.945 1.036 0.980 1.033
Iraq 0.773 0.780 0.523 0.697 0.464
Angola 0.384 0.341 0.696 0.430 0.570
Algeria 0.232 0.191 0.501 0.264 0.484
Ecuador 0.231 0.169 0.191 0.217 0.214
Kuwait 0.199 0.261 0.288 0.232 0.208