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by winston » Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:51 pm
LenaHuat wrote:They all need tonnes of aluminium, iron ore etc....
by LenaHuat » Wed Nov 05, 2008 9:50 pm
****@@
by winston » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:12 pm
by iam802 » Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:21 am
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open to further falls in official interest rates, after revising down its estimates for economic growth and warning of the need to avoid a sharp slowdown in the months ahead.
The central bank said growth in domestic demand had moderated significantly in recent months and that given the weakness in the global economy it expected the local economy would "remain below trend for some time."
The RBA also said it appeared likely its preferred measure of underlying inflation was nearing its peak in quarterly terms and would "begin to decline" in the next few quarters.
Its main task in coming months would be to find a balance between softer domestic economic conditions and the need for inflation to fall back to within its 2-3% target band.
"In reviewing that stance of policy each month in the period ahead, the board will be seeking to strike the appropriate balance between avoiding an unduly sharp weakening in demand and the need for inflation to fall back to the target over a reasonable period," the RBA said in its quarterly statement on monetary policy."
Housing finance falls
In signs of a slowing economy, Australian home-loan approvals fell in September for an eighth month as tighter lending standards and slowing economic growth prompted house-buyers to scrap spending plans.
The number of loans granted to build or buy homes and apartments declined 2.7% to 47,435 from August, when they slid a revised 2.1%, the statistics bureau said today. The median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.8% drop.
Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals also revealed that both had slashed iron ore production by 10% amid an increasingly weak market for the steelmaking material.
Rio this morning said it expected to ship 170 million to 175 million tonnes of iron ore this year, down from earlier expectations of about 195 million tonnes.
Fortescue Metals has lowered its annual production target by 10%, or 2 million tonnes, as it brings forward a planned maintenance shutdown of its port and mine processing plant.
Revised GDP
The RBA made "modest" downward revisions to its estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth out to December 2010.
It now expects annualised GDP growth of 1.5% to December 2008, 1.5% to June 2009 and 1.75% to December 2009.
The new estimates compare to its previous forecast for 2%, 2.25% and 2.50%, respectively.
But while the RBA also still consumer price inflation (CPI) and underlying inflation falling in 2009, the timetable for the expected decline to its target band has been pushed out to December 2010, from June 2010, when both measures are expected to reach 3%.
Annualised underlying inflation is now seen at 4.5% to December 2008, 4% to June 2009 and 3.5% to December 2009.
That compares to an earlier forecast for 4.5%, 3.75% and 3.25%, respectively.
"These central forecasts reflect a judgment as to the net effect of a number of powerful influences, some contractionary and some stimulatory, on the Australian economy," the RBA said.
More economic woes
The RBA said the deterioration in the global economy could continue if stresses in financial markets were ongoing.
It also said the global economy could bounce back given the stimulatory measures taken by governments around the world to support their economies, including the federal government's initiative to inject $10.4 billion into the Australian economy.
"On the other hand, the global economy could rebound faster than currently anticipated," it said.
"If so, the slowing in the domestic economy, especially in the resources sector, could be smaller than forecast here, and the decline in inflation would be more modest."
Rate cuts
The central bank has already embarked upon an aggressive policy easing, with three rate cuts totalling 200 basis points since September, to leave the cash rate standing at 5.25%.
Debt futures markets are currently pricing in a further 50 basis point cut in December, and more in the first half of 2009 to counter expected weak economic growth and rising unemployment.
The markets believe the cash rate could be lowered to 3.50% by the end of June next year.
The RBA also noted that domestic demand growth had moderated significantly, led by the household sector, which had cut back on borrowing and seen is wealth fall due to declines in house and equity prices.
Business conditions had also softened and investment intentions appeared to be being scaled back.
Labour market conditions had softened and wage pressures were likely to abate.
by kennynah » Mon Nov 10, 2008 12:02 pm
.(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas
..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................
by iam802 » Thu Nov 13, 2008 10:58 am
The Reserve Bank of Australia today confirmed it had intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the Australian dollar.
An RBA spokeswoman confirmed the central bank intervened this morning to provide more liquidity into currency markets.
The local dollar today opened trading in Australia at 64.09 US cents, down from 66.03 at the close yesterday.
At 11.51am, the currency was trading at 64.13 US cents
by iam802 » Thu Nov 13, 2008 11:01 am
The Federal Government has moved to slap a permanent ban on the most controversial form of short-selling amid a historic fall in share prices, part of a crackdown targeting hedge funds and credit-rating agencies.
Corporate Law Minister Nick Sherry, in unveiling proposed changes to financial regulation, also announced tighter regulation and supervision of credit-ratings agencies which have been accused of failing investors in the global credit crisis.
"Australia will be banning 'naked' short-selling,'' Mr Sherry told reporters in a briefing, referring to a practice whereby hedge funds sell shares they neither own nor have borrowed in the hope of quickly buying them back at a lower price.
Naked short-selling is considered murkier and more risky than traditional short-selling, where hedge funds borrow the shares they plan to sell. Traditional short-selling is currently subject to a temporary ban, but is due to be lifted in coming weeks.
Regulators banned covered and naked short-selling in September, in immediate response to a global markets meltdown, but they left the government to make the long-term decisions on these practices.
The government also announced today tougher disclosure rules on traditional short-selling, a proposal that has angered sections of the finance community which say bans on short-selling only starve the stock market of badly needed liquidity.
Mr Sherry said new laws, to be introduced to parliament later today, would force brokers to ask their clients if an order was a covered short sale, while market operators would have to publicly disclose short-selling data they received from brokers.
But he said there was no decision yet on the timing of the public disclosure, amid market concerns that immediate disclosure could force traders to reveal investment strategies.
"I am alive to the concern that the data needs to be disclosed in a way that balances transparency with the protection of the intellectual property and other interests of the funds management sector, and this will be taken into consideration,'' Mr Sherry said.
The securities watchdog, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), has said it will lift its ban on covered short-selling of non-financial stocks after November 18 and on covered short selling of financial stocks after January 27.
Mr Sherry said the government would increase supervision of credit ratings agencies, to require them to become licensed as financial services providers and to report annually to ASIC.
"It is very important for retail and wholesale investors in Australia that we have robust ratings, and robust research of financial products,'' Mr Sherry said, adding that they were important to investor confidence in the financial system.
The stock market has fallen by about 41% this year and is trading at around four-year lows.
by winston » Wed Jan 07, 2009 3:48 pm
by kennynah » Wed Jan 07, 2009 3:56 pm
.(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................by iam802 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:32 pm
January 8, 2009 - 1:28PM
Macquarie Group has warned it faced extremely tough market conditions in the December quarter that would hit its profits, sending its share down over 7%.
The group, headed to its first profit fall in 17 years, said in a statement that conditions had been challenging for almost all of its businesses. It said it would give a further update at a regular briefing in February.
"There's a downward re-evaluation of assets ... there's less deal flow coming through ... and less fees generated from that deal flow ... and the cost of borrowing has been so much higher as well,'' said Peter Vann, head of investment research at Constellation Capital Management."I think they're flagging the obvious. Times are really tough.''
Macquarie shares were down 5.3% at $31.96 in early afternoon trade after earlier falling to as low as $31.19.
The stock has been hammered in recent months, suffering from Macquarie's reputation for being an aggressive, expansive bank with market exposure worldwide. Analysts said a profit warning was likely to follow.
"They are potentially clearing the way for a downgrade to the guidance at the operational briefing in early February. They are setting the tone for that,'' said a banking analyst, who asked to be unnamed due to company policy. "It would appear the cyclical downturn is deeper than what they were expecting back in November. That's a concern.''
Selling assets to raise capital
Investment banks worldwide have suffered in the global credit crisis, leading them to raise capital and sell assets. So far Macquarie has said it would not need to raise equity to shore up its capital, as Australia's commercial banks have done.
Instead Macquarie is trying to sell about $15 billion of its assets under management, with $12 billion sold so far, to focus on more profitable parts of its business.
That included the sale of its $1.5 billion margin lending portfolio to Australia's Bendigo and Adelaide Bank for $52 million worth of convertible preference shares in Bendigo and Adelaide, announced today.
The group, formerly known as the "millionaire's factory'', was earlier this month said to be looking to put one of its top-end properties in China for sale with a price tag of around 300 million yuan ($61.5 million).
Babcock hopes for green light
Meanwhile, Babcock & Brown, struggling after a debt-funded expansion binge, is set to announce a partial response from its lenders to a debt restructuring plan that involved a debt-for-equity swap.
Its shares were placed on a trading halt on Thursday as the group waits to hear whether lenders will help out. Lenders threw a $150 million lifeline last month while Babcock worked on a plan to pay down $3 billion in debt maturing by 2011.
The company confirmed on Wednesday that its end-year assets were worth much less than its debt and equity, prompting Citi to drop its coverage of the group.
Net assets would be negative because it was writing down the value of the assets it had put up for sale, Babcock said.
In a bid to raise capital and restructure the business, Babcock is trying to sell more than half its asset base in a difficult environment, including real estate, leasing and corporate and structured finance businesses, to focus on infrastructure investments.
Reuters
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