Value Investing 01 (May 08 - Dec 08)

[kennynah]

so difficult.... i just look at the charts.... all encapsulated within.... but only of cos for the liquid counters....those evry illiquid ones...cannot trust the charts...bo pah kay...

[helios]

In these times, I only look at Cash/Share.

winston dear ... you old bird ...

Net Cash/ Share ... & Net Securities/ Share, anyone can compute?

[fclim]

In these times, I only look at Cash/Share.

hey w,

good point! maybe i wait for all the 3 local banks 3Q report and see how much cash/per share they have now...

but hor dbs declare olready they going to incur 80mil to pay the poor folks who are (straightforward cases) being misled... wonder if they going to include some provisions for this item...

so now its time to wait wait wait... and be patient.... very patient....
*smack itchy fingers*

have fun,
fc

[kennynah]

In these times, I only look at Cash/Share.

Thereafter, I look at whether they can breakeven on their business going forward ie. not burn existing cash.

If Cash/Share is substantially higher than the Share price and if they are not going to burn a lot of existing cash, then you may wanna back up the truck slowly as there could also be some undisclosed forex losses, parent company going bankrupt etc..

exactly...cash in hand, does not mean an iota of safety....for example...company can be in huge debt...unpaid...chow kar...alot of cash in the bank current account though....

the long and short of all this...

assets and liabilities.... just these 2 items to over simplify.... one knows these 2 to the tee....then no problem...but we all know...NO one can know for 100% accuracy what these assets and liabilities are....so, then why even speculate what these numbers are?

people are slammed time and again for "betting" in stock markets.... let me state that folks who based their investments using some form of valuation are the real betters....betters who make believe their valuation is correct...when it is a factually next to impossible to value any of the assets and to know clearly all the liabilities of a company...

no problem...fclim...hurl more bok chui kans here... i am prepared...hahahaha....

[winston]

hurl more bok chui kans here...

Recall watching a Chinese Movie a long long time ago.. 25 years ?

There's a very nice song there. Chui Kan Tang Hui Boh ?.... Chui Kan Tang Hui Boh ?...

I dont understand Hokkien but I think it means do you have empty bottle for sale ? ... I think

[kanglc]

people are slammed time and again for "betting" in stock markets.... let me state that folks who based their investments using some form of valuation are the real betters....betters who make believe their valuation is correct...when it is a factually next to impossible to value any of the assets and to know clearly all the liabilities of a company...

It has to be based on something right? Even if you based on chart and price action, that is the collective actions of all investors, which is also based on.... I mean it cannot be chart based on chart right?

[kennynah]

i suppose you are right...has to be based on an educated decision....whether charts or FA... my take is that if we all are well aware of the murkiness of FA especially during this period, then why stick to using it as a holy grail, knowing quite well that it lacks accuracy ?

[caseyc]

In these times, I only look at Cash/Share.

Hi W, would that be net of all liabilities? Similar to Graham's "net-net"?

[la papillion]

I dun use cash/share too. I use (cash - total liabilities)/share. Makes no sense to look at the amt of cash i have now when i own others a huge amt. But then another question arises...why own so much cash when u can pay?

haha, investing not easy at all.

[kanglc]

i suppose you are right...has to be based on an educated decision....whether charts or FA... my take is that if we all are well aware of the murkiness of FA especially during this period, then why stick to using it as a holy grail, knowing quite well that it lacks accuracy ?

Ken,

During this period, emotions rule. Don't say FA or TA, all are NA - Not Applicable.