Oil 13 (Oct 23 - Dec 27)

[winston]

The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by over 90% since the Iran war began, prompting U.S. calls for an international naval coalition to protect commercial vessels. But allies remain hesitant, and no clear mission has materialized.

What it Means:
Even if a U.S.-led escort mission moves forward, it will take weeks to organize and face serious operational challenges－from Iran's drones and missiles to thousands of potential naval mines. Without broader de-escalation, any convoy system would only enable a limited and high-risk return of shipping, keeping global supply disruptions in place.

What Comes Next:
Pressure on allies to participate will intensify, but reluctance will persist as long as the conflict remains active. Even in a best-case scenario, shipping volumes will stay well below normal, sustaining elevated energy prices and global economic risk－especially if Iran continues targeting vessels or escalates further.

Source: RANE Worldview

[winston]

Iran considers levying transit fees on ships in Hormuz Strait, lawmaker says

"A new regime for ​the Strait ​of Hormuz" ⁠will follow the war's eventual end, allowing Tehran to apply maritime ​restrictions on states that have sanctioned ​it.

"By ⁠using the strategic position of the Strait of Hormuz, we can sanction (the West) and prevent ⁠their ​ships from passing through ​this waterway,"

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/327211/

[behappyalways]

Iran Oil Exports Soar As Bessent Floats Unsanctioning Iranian Oil Already-At-Sea
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/iran-o ... lready-sea

[behappyalways]

IEA Chief Warns Gulf Flows May Take Six Months To Restore After Biggest-Ever Energy Shock
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/iea-ch ... hs-restore

[behappyalways]

Saudis Bypass Hormuz As Oil Exports From Yanbu Surge Toward 5 Million Target
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/saudi ... ion-target

[winston]

When supply shocks outlast conflict
Markets brace for prolonged economic shock sparked by energy disruptions

Asia’s heavy reliance on imported energy, much of which transits through vulnerable routes, makes it acutely sensitive to supply disruptions.

by Andrea Correa

Markets are already pricing in scenarios in which energy flows remain constrained for months due to prolonged closures, physical damage to infrastructure or escalation involving additional regional producers.

The absence of a clear resolution path only adds to the difficulty of assessing its ultimate impact.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... t-conflict