Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 6)?

storm.jpg

It's now the third week of the war and Oil has spiked > 40% since the war started.

In the meantime, the markets have not crashed yet and are still quite complacent.

The war has now morph into an attack on the public infrastructures of Iran's neighbours eg. Airports, Oil Storage Depots, Desalination Plants etc.

The Administration tried to calm the oil markets by mentioning that the war will be over soon. That caused oil to retreat violently but the WTI is now back to the US$99 level.

Iran probably wants to prolong the war as long as possible, to hurt the US economy and the Republican's Mid-Term election in Nov 2026.

The Administration has now threatened to destroy the Oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. If they do go ahead with it (a big IF), Iran will then lose a major source of income. This is probably what Israel wants to weaken Iran but it will also reduce the Global Oil Supply in the medium term. Thereafter, Iran will surely retaliate, probably on softer targets.

I've decided a few days ago that his war will no longer be over that soon. Therefore, it's not necessary to be adventurous. This war can now easily go on for another few more weeks.

As a trader, I need to remind myself to very agile and flexible. Prices can go both ways and TACO & Company, will be doing their best to whack the traders.

I have been trying to sell whenever I can over the past week. At the same time, I have some hedges in place eg. SQQQ, UVXY, XLE, CNOOC, TMF, Petrochina and Hibiscus, in case things worsen from here.

I have yet to see any Cybersecurity Issues, which I thought will be one of the fronts of this war. Will we be seeing some Cybersecurity Issues going forward? My broking account has been off-line for the past few days but I cant see how it's related to this Iran War.

Anyway, I'm now cleaning up my Watchlist. When the time comes, I will know what I want to buy very quickly. I dont want to be buying now, in case it drops another, say 30%, from here.

During the Asian Financial Crisis, I recalled that Equities dropped about 50%, while the Local Currency dropped about 30%. Suddenly, you have lost 80% in USD terms! And a long bear market can continue for a year before it turns around. (The Japanese market didnt go anywhere for > 20 years after the "Black Monday Crash" in 1989 till about 2012).

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Mar 17 & 18: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event as Inflation is expected to rise
2. Mar 31 - Apr 02: Trump to visit China;
3. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting
4. May 2026: Powell Term Ends
5. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting
6. Jul 01: USMCA Ending
7. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (64% from 65% last week from 64% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (13 Counters); AI, Oil;
b. US: 27% (14 Counters); AI, Oil;
c. Malaysia: 45% (14 Counters); Banks, Oil, Palm Oil
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; Yen? Gold? CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to Oil & Hedges; To sell before the market turns around;
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$99 from US$91 last week from US$67 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Jun 2022); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. Unable to get Captains and Crews to sail through Hormuz
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$5062 from US$5159 from US$5267;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$81 from US$84 from US$94;
Resistance: US$115; Support: US$70
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 62; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.76 from US$5.81 from US$6.09;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$70,668 @ "9.01 AM March 14, 2026" from US$68,010 @ "6.17 PM on Mar 7, 2026" from US$63,892 @ "3.38 AM Feb 28, 2026"
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "20 Extreme Fear" from "27 Fear" last year from "43 Fear" last week two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6632 from 6740 last week from 6879 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25465 from 25768 last week from 26657;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Petrochina
f. Bought CNOOC
g. Sold CATL
h. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4095 from 4124 from 4163;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Flat; 1718 from 1717 from 1753:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Hibiscus
d. Sold 1/2 Telekom Malaysia


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 14, 2026 @ 9.15 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 160 from 158 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.07 from 3.09 from 3.08;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.15 from 1.16 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8280 from 7.8216 from 7.8233;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.94 from 3.95 from 3.89;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.26;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.89 from 6.91 from 6.86;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.49 from 98.86 from 97.65;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.28% from 4.13% from 3.96%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.73% from 3.56% from 3.38%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 95.25 from 95.91 from 97.25;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 7)?

storm.jpg

It's now the fourth week of the war and Oil has spiked > 45% since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the markets are still quite complacent, with the S&P 500 dropping only 6% from the start of the war, although the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" is now at "15 Extreme Fear".

Oil prices are at an elevated level and the Administration is still trying to whack the Oil Bulls. The latest action being the unsanctioning of Iranian Oil that are already in the water (140m barrels vs 20m daily Straits of Hormuz traffic).

Meanwhile, there are reports that Iran is charging a transit fee of about US$2m. (A fully loaded Oil tanker can be worth up to US$300m). Therefore, some oil could be passing through the Straits of Hormuz after all.

Although the US would like to wind down the war ASAP, Iran would probably like to prolong the war as long as possible. It's no longer a unilateral decision to end the war.

As mentioned last week, this war is no longer an "excursion" and it can continue for at least a few more weeks.

Anyway, there are about US$8t in the Money Markets now. There's quite a bit of money on the sidelines now. The minute that there's some indication that the Iran war will be over, those money will be quickly deployed.

Therefore, one has to be very nimble and alert in this type of market, not only to get out of any positions in Oil & Gas, Hedges, Inverse ETFs etc but also to quickly deploy any "Risk-On" capital.

However, if this war drags on for a few more months (a big "if"), then there's a need to spread the risks and be not too adventurous. There are always unintended consequences from such situations and tail-end risks can suddenly appear.

In the meantime, I have been monitoring the "extremes" in the markets so see whether there are any opportunities out there:-
1. Silver: 40% dropped from the peak in Jan 2026
2. Bitcoin: 44% dropped from the peak in Sep 2025
3. JPY: 22% dropped from the range high in Jan 2023;
4. MYR: 18% rise from the low in Feb 2024

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
2. May 2026: Powell Term Ends
3. May: Postponed Trump's China Visit
4. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
5. Jul 01: USMCA Ending
6. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (58% from 64% last week from 65% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%?;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 36% (13 Counters); AI, Oil;
b. US: 29% (15 Counters); AI, Oil;
c. Malaysia: 35% (12 Counters); Banks, Oil, Palm Oil
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$94 from US$99 last week from US$91 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Jun 2022); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. Unable to get Captains and Crews to sail through Hormuz
e. Unsanctioning Iranian Oil in Water: 140m barrels; 1-2 weeks Hormuz;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4575 from US$5062 from US$5159;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$70 from US$81 from US$84;
Resistance: US$93; US$115; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.37 from US$5.76 from US$5.81;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$70, 522 @ "7.22 AM March 21" from US$70,668 @ "9.01 AM March 14, 2026" from US$68,010 @ "6.17 PM;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "15 Extreme Fear" from "20 Extreme Fear" last week from "27 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6506 from 6632 last week from 6740 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought META (FB)
j. Sold EWY (Korea ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25277 from 25465 from 25768;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
d. Bought Alibaba
e. Bought Tencent Music
f. Bought Smoore
g. Bought Tencent
h. Sold Petrochina
i. Sold New Oriental Education
j. Traded CNOOC

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3957 from 4095 from 4124;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1721 from 1718 from 1717:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought IGB Reit
d. Bought SunReit
c. Sold Telekom Malaysia
d. Sold Maybank
e. Sold CIMB
f. Sold Public Bank


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 20, 2026 @ 10.18 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 159 from 160 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.07 from 3.07 from 3.09;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.15 from 1.15 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8344 from 7.8280 from 7.8216;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 3.94 from 3.94 from 3.95;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.89 from 6.89 from 6.91;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.74 from 100.49 from 98.86;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.38% from 4.28% from 4.13%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.91% from 3.73% from 3.56%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 94.95 from 95.25 from 95.91;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 8)?

storm.jpg

It's now the fifth week of the war and Oil has spiked about 55% since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the markets are still quite complacent, with the S&P 500 dropping only 9% from the start of the war, although the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" is now at "10 Extreme Fear".

As mentioned, whenever oil prices are at an elevated level, the Administration will try to whack the Oil Bulls.

However, when the boy cries wolf too many times, nobody will believe him anymore.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
2. May 2026: Powell Term Ends
3. May 14 & 15: Trump's China Visit
4. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
5. Jul 01: USMCA Ending
6. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (55% from 58% last week from 64% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%?;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 40% (13 Counters); AI, Oil;
b. US: 28% (14 Counters); AI, Oil;
c. Malaysia: 32% (11 Counters); Banks, Oil, Palm Oil
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$100 from US$94 last week from US$99 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Jun 2022); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. Unable to get Captains and Crews to sail through Hormuz
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4524 from US$4575 from US$5062;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Flat; US$70 from US$70 from US$81;
Resistance: US$93; US$115; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.49 from US$5.37 from US$5.76;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$65,991 @ "6.26 AM March 28" from US$70, 522 @ "7.22 AM March 21" from US$70,668 @ "9.01 AM March 14, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "10 Extreme Fear" from "15 Extreme Fear" last week from "20 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6369 from 6506 last week from 6632 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold XLE (Energy ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 24952 from 25277 from 25465;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Added to Popmart
f. Bought China Life
g. Sold Smoore

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3914 from 3957 from 4095;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1713 from 1721 from 1718:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold 1/2 Hibiscus
d. Sold IGB Reit
e. Traded SunReit


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 27, 2026 @ 9.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 160 from 159 last week from 160 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.12 from 3.07 from 3.07;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.69 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.15 from 1.15 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8338 from 7.8344 from 7.8280;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.01 from 3.94 from 3.94;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.29 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.91 from 6.89 from 6.89;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.99 from 99.74 from 100.49;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.43% from 4.38% from 4.28%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 3.91% from 3.91% from 3.73%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 94.66 from 94.95 from 95.25;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.