Pop Mart 9992

[winston]

not vested

Enhancing earnings visibility after annual gala

Pop Mart held its annual gala on 6 Feb 2026, highlighting solid sales growth in 2025 and key strategic priorities for 2026F.

We estimate revenue jumped 203% yoy to Rmb39bn in FY25F, supported by overseas store expansion and IP platform model.

We expect Pop Mart to post a net profit increase of 310% yoy to Rmb13.9bn in FY25F, supported by supply chain optimisation and improving product mix.

We retain our Add call with a TP of HK$391, based on 1.0x FY25 PEG and 31% FY25-27F EPS CAGR.

Source: CGS

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file=f8da780e-2634-4584-aab9-cc5fb3936cb7&rpt=86C2B574-4C8F-C233-0E64-6685D1E26B87

[behappyalways]

Pop Mart's year-end party is here! The boss shows off his Wing Chun skills, sending thousands into a frenzy.

泡泡瑪特尾牙登場! 老闆大秀詠春拳 萬人嗨翻｜TVBS新聞

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2JP-6FAjE0

[winston]

Labubu mania is over. Pop Mart bets it can survive with new toys

The company has also funneled more resources into characters seen as having breakout potential, particularly Twinkle Twinkle

Characters such as Twinkle Twinkle, Skullpanda and Crybaby, are drawing crowds of their own.

Launched in the second half of 2024, Twinkle Twinkle generated 390 million yuan (S$73 million) globally in the first six months of 2025, becoming one of the company’s fastest-growing characters. Morgan Stanley estimates it could reach about half of Labubu’s sales scale in China by 2026.

In the US, year-on-year sales growth slowed to 40 per cent in February from 130 per cent the month before, down sharply from roughly 1,270 per cent growth in America in the third quarter.

The Monsters series still generated about a quarter of Pop Mart’s global sales volume last year, roughly 100 million dolls.

Labubu accounted for over half of sales overseas and exceeding 70 per cent in some Western markets.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... e-new-toys

[winston]

vested

Shares of Labubu maker Pop Mart dive over 20pc after posting strong earnings

Annual revenue and earnings growth missed the consensus estimate from analysts, with a material slowdown in the fourth quarter, amplifying investor concerns about the durability of top intellectual properties.

Also, a pullback in dividend payout ratio to 25 percent in 2025 from 35 percent in 2024 is another negative to us”.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/327661/

[winston]

vested

<Research> BofAS Downgrades POP MART (09992.HK) to 'Neutral'; Revenue Growth Guidance for This Year Below Market Expectations

BofAS published a research report indicating that POP MART (09992.HK) did not meet investors' higher expectations for its fiscal year 2025 results, primarily due to revenue falling short of expectations.

Revenue for the period increased by 185% year-on-year to RMB370 billion, below the market expectation of approximately RMB400 billion, while the adjusted net profit margin was broadly in line with expectations.

Management guided a revenue growth of no less than 20% for 2026, which is below the market expectation of 30%, and hinted that due to a high base in the third quarter, revenue in the second half may record a year-on-year decline.

The firm believes that 2026 will be a transition year for POP MART, facing challenges such as the cooling of the Labubu craze in the European and American markets and increasing pressure on profit margins.

Therefore, it downgraded POP MART's rating from 'Buy' to 'Neutral', and the target price was lowered from RMB300 to RMB170.

BofAS lowered the group's adjusted EPS forecasts for this year and next by 19% and 26%, respectively, to reflect a more conservative growth outlook.

The firm currently forecasts that revenue and adjusted net profit after tax for 2026 will grow by 21% and 15%, respectively, incorporating a prudent assumption of a 1.5 percentage point contraction in the adjusted net profit margin.

Related News: POP MART Annual NP RMB12.776B, Up 308.8%, In Line; Final DPS Hikes to RMB2.3817

However, the firm remains confident in POP MART's long-term value as a diversified global IP platform, believing that the current adjustments will help digest the growing pains from the rapid expansion over the past two years and prepare for the next stage of development.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

<Research>UBS Trims Adj. NP Forecast for POP MART; TP Cut to HKD278

POP MART (09992.HK) was foreseen to achieve revenue and net profit of RMB37.1 billion and RMB13 billion respectively for FY25, representing a YoY leap of 185% and 299%, UBS said in a research report.

This implies that revenue and net profit for 2H25 would be RMB23 billion and RMB8 billion, which were 8% and 6% below the broker's expectations.

The broker noted that management had a cautious tone for 2026, expecting revenue growth of no less than 20% to address the high base in 2025.

Owing to uncertainties in raw material and logistics costs, the company planned to provide more details on margins in May.

Related News: BofAS Downgrades POP MART (09992.HK) to 'Neutral'; Revenue Growth Guidance for This Year Below Market Expectations

UBS trimmed its adjusted net profit forecast for the group for 2026-28 by 7-13%, reflecting a decelerated overseas growth, partially offset by higher domestic forecast.

The target price was reduced from HKD326 to HKD278, with a Buy rating.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

Pop Mart FY26F: From rapid to normalised growth

Pop Mart’s FY25 revenue reached Rmb37.1bn, up 185% yoy (2H25: +174% yoy), lower than our estimate, mainly dragged by overseas markets.

FY25 adjusted net profit rose to Rmb13.1bn, up 285% yoy (2H25: +251% yoy), at the lower end of market consensus’ estimates (Rmb13bn-14bn).

Management guides for no less than 20% revenue growth in FY26F, lower than market expectations. We expect revenue and NP to increase 23% and 18% in FY26F.

We reiterate Add with a lower TP of HK$257.2, based on 22x P/E. We remove it from our High Conviction list, due to its transition from rapid growth to high-quality growth.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 91105B31FB

[behappyalways]

What Comes After Labubu? Pop Mart COO Addresses Investor Pressure
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=G-Z3CpGir ... Jlbg%3D%3D

[winston]

vested

Pop Mart’s US$33 billion rout casts doubt on life after Labubu

The company’s Labubu-led Monsters series accounted for about 40 per cent of total revenue last year, up from 23 per cent in 2024

Weakening sales overseas and in China, high inventory and a continuous downward revision on earnings are main pressure points this year.

Pop Mart’s inventory turnover days has also increased 21 per cent from a year ago to 123 days as of end 2025. The company attributed the rise to longer transportation lead time, higher sales to markets abroad and a wider network of stores.

“Signs of slower growth, margin normalisation, or IP fatigue could drive meaningful multiple compression and consensus forecasts are likely to be revised downward.”

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ter-labubu

google-preferred-sourceAd