Liquidity 02 incl QE, Twist, LTRO, APP etc (Jun 14 - Dec 25)

[winston]

U.S. Money Supply Is Doing Something So Scarce That It Hasn't Happened Since the Great Depression -- and a Big Move in Stocks May Be Forthcoming

by Sean Williams

In April 2022, M2 peaked at an all-time high of $21.722 trillion. For some context, that's up from $286.6 billion in January 1959 and represents a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7%.

But as of April 2024, M2 came in at $20.867 trillion, representing a decline of nearly $855 billion -- 3.94% on a percentage basis -- in two years.

It's the first time M2 money supply has backed off more than 2% from its all-time high since the Great Depression.

Source: Motley Fool

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-money- ... 00529.html

[winston]

Goldman Sees ‘Wall of Money’ Fueling Stock Market’s Summer Party

The Goldman Sachs trading desk says a flood of cash from passive equity allocations will pour into the stock market in early July, setting up a continuing rally through early summer.

How do they know this? “New quarter (Q3), new half year (2H), this is when a wall of money comes into the equity market quickly,” Goldman’s Scott Rubner wrote in a note to clients.

In addition, the bank predicted that share prices should benefit from strong seasonal trends and rising engagement from retail investors.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... mbergdaily

[winston]

US companies have US$1.76 tril opportunity to free up cash

By Nina Trentmann

With rates expected to stay high for a while, corporate finance chiefs have a strong incentive to skip debt markets and free up more of their companies’ cash instead.

The biggest US-based companies can wring a combined US$1.76 trillion (RM7.80 trillion) from their operations by taking steps to tighten up how they manage key areas such as inventory and payments.

More than 11% of the revenue generated at these firms was trapped in operations.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/723185

[winston]

U.S. Money Supply Recently Did Something for the First Time Since the Great Depression

by Sean Williams

M2 money supply is still 2.52% below its record high set 28 months prior. A notable decline in M2 suggests that consumers will have to forgo some of their discretionary purchases, which has historically been a recipe for economic weakness, if not a recession.

Based on a study from Bank of America Global Research, around two-thirds of the S&P 500’s peak-to-trough drawdowns occur during, not prior to, recessions being declared. Thus, the historic decline we’ve witnessed in M2 may be signaling a massive move lower to come in stocks.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/10/07/ ... epression/

[behappyalways]

Reverse Repo $148.8BN, down from $186.7BN. Lowest since April 2021.
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1861474585327129042

[winston]

Global Money Supply

If we look at growth in world money supply since Covid, it's around $20 trillion.

The growth in market value of the AI Kings has been $12.5 trillion over the same period.

Add another $3 trillion in the growth in the value of cryptocurrencies, and it's fair to say that we know where most of the excess money supply (i.e. above trend growth money supply) has been absorbed from the covid response.

Source: Forbes

[behappyalways]

Reverse repo tumbles by $25BN to $110.8BN from $135.8BN, lowest since April 2021
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1868722742901850604

[behappyalways]

Reverse repo plunges to $98.4BN. First sub-$100BN print since April 2021
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1870172544570900752

[behappyalways]

Goldman's Financial Conditions index has been tightening since December
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1876277920546926914

[behappyalways]

Reverse repo tumbles to $96BN from $118.3BN
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1881768023067173362