by winston » Fri Oct 11, 2024 1:55 pm
China Consumer – Policy narratives turn more positive
On 24 September 2024, China introduced its first significant and coordinated monetary easing measures in years, which include reductions in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates, cuts to property-related mortgage rates and downpayment ratios, liquidity injections into the stock market (via swap/relending facilities) and efforts to strengthen bank capitalisation.
Attention is now focused on fiscal stimulus alongside monetary policies to drive demand (through consumption and investment), stabilise the property market, and address balance sheet issues.
On the consumer front, social security, healthcare and pro-birth measures are key areas of focus.
The MSCI China Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary indices rose around 40% and 33%, respectively, since 24 September 2024, before pulling back on 8 October 2024, following a National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) press conference that disappointed markets.
Currently, China is experiencing a consumer downturn, marked by demand shocks and deflation, triggered by wealth destruction, historically low consumer confidence, weak business sentiment, sluggish job markets and wages, de-leveraging, and an aging population.
We continue to adopt a selective, bottom-up approach and prefer consumer names with:-
i) strong pricing power to defend margins in a deflationary environment;
ii) market share gains with healthy margins;
iii) value-focused consumer stocks that capitalise on the consumer downgrade trend; iv) overseas exposure given the bumpy domestic recovery in China;
v) earnings visibility with attractive dividend yield and;
vi) beneficiaries of policy tailwinds.
Some of our preferred picks under our coverage include Alibaba Group (BABA US/9988 HK), JD.com (JD US/9618 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK/TCOM US), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK/600690 CH), Midea Group (000333 CH), New Oriental Education (EDU US), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), Uni-President China (220 HK), BYD.co (1211 HK), MINISO (MNSO US), China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery (600600 CH).
Source: OCBC
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