Market Timing 07 (Nov 22 - Dec 25)

[winston]

It's OK to head to the sidelines — for now

by Charley Blaine

The betting right now is a summer slump is here, but history suggests a rally in the fall. Why? Election years are often good for stocks.

The RSI for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100, had been hovering at or near 80 for the first seven days of July.

That second bounce. At some point, a stock, an index or an ETF hits what seems to be a bottom and bounces up. Wait before jumping in. Often, your target falls back after that initial bounce loses strength. The second bounce is the confirmation of a real bounce.

CNN Fear and Greed Index.

CBOE Volatility Index.

50-day moving average.

Put-call ratios. A reading of 0.7 is considered the neutral level. Below 0.7 is an optimism signal.

Source: The Street

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ok-head- ... 21140.html

[winston]

Now is the Time to Buy The Dip

by Sean Michael Cummings

Don’t take the recent surge in volatility as a reason to walk away from the table.

The market may be showing signs of fear, but you don’t have to.

The data shows this bull market is still in full force. That’s why we want to be invested today.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/07/23/ ... y-the-dip/

[winston]

Be Careful What You Wish For…

by Larry Benedict

Maybe this time the Fed will be on the ball and cut rates before it’s too late to avoid a recession. Or maybe this time is simply different.

But don’t think that rate cuts automatically translate to higher stock prices.

As history shows us, some of the worst bear markets in history have happened as the Fed reduces rates…

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://tradesoftheday.com/2024/07/24/b ... e_vignette

[winston]

Macro hedge funds to dump $45 billion in equities, says Morgan Stanley

By Carolina Mandl

Computer-driven macro hedge fund strategies on Wednesday sold $20 billion in equities and are set to shed at least more $25 billion over the next week after the stock rout, in one of the largest risk-unwinding events in a decade.

If volatility persists in the coming days, the sell-off would rapidly increase.

An additional 1% day-drop in global equities could spark sales of $35 billion and macro hedge funds could dump up to $110 billion in a 3% day fall.

Portfolio managers mostly sold shares in the information technology, consumer staples and material sectors.

Source: Reuters

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/macro-he ... 51142.html

[winston]

Experts Are Warning About a Stock Market Crash. Here’s What History Has to Say About It.

by Katie Brockman

No matter what’s in store for the market over the short term, its long-term potential is outstanding.

To minimize risk and maximize your earnings, it’s wise to stay in the market for as long as possible — even throughout the tough times.

Nobody knows what the stock market’s short-term future holds but if history shows us anything, it’s that its long-term potential is incredibly promising.

By investing in the right places and keeping a long-term outlook, what happens in the coming days, weeks, or months won’t matter as much.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/07/29/ ... -about-it/

[winston]

4 Key Market Indicators to Spot Signs of Exhaustion in the Comeback Rally

By Michael Kramer

1. Volatility Index
2. USD/JPY's Recent Price Action
3. USD/CAD's Uptrend
4. USD/MXN

Source: Investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/4-ke ... s_headline

[winston]

Investors timing the market see biggest hit on sector funds

An average investor loses out on as much as 2.6 per cent in annual gains by straying from a buy-and-hold strategy.

Investors who sell during periods of volatility often end up sitting in cash and missing out on market rebounds.

“If you get out when the market is down 10 per cent, it’s likely you won’t benefit from the bounce and the recovery”.

“Often you find that once you get back into the market it’s too late".

The lowest gap observed was in allocation funds, such as target-date funds that automatically rebalance, removing yet another opportunity to mistime a market move.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth ... ctor-funds

[winston]

The Bull Market is Still Intact… History Shows We Should Expect More Outperformance From Here

by Sean Michael Cummings

If you missed the chance to buy the dip, don’t lose heart.

The bull market is still intact. If you’re not long stocks already, I urge you to get on board… because history shows we should expect more outperformance from here.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/08/27/ ... e_vignette

[winston]

Are Stocks Poised for a Rally to End 2024?

by Matt Benjamin

First, the economy looks very healthy at the moment.

Industry analysts predict the S&P 500 will report year-over-year earnings growth of 11.3% this year and a whopping 14.4% in 2025.

Cuts Are Coming…

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, fourth quarter market gains have been the largest and most consistent over the years. Gains for the S&P 500 have averaged 4.2% during the fourth quarter since 1949 – much better than the first quarter (2.1%), the second quarter (1.8%), and the third quarter (0.8%).

There are always risks, and smart investors account for them. But if I have to decide whether to be in the market or out of it right now, consider me all in.

Source: Wealthy Retirement

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/09/04/ ... -end-2024/

[winston]

5 Critical Charts Indicating the Stock Market Correction Could Have Room to Run

By Michael Kramer

1. Nasdaq 100 Falls Below Uptrend Line
2. S&P 500 in a Rising Wedge
3. Nvidia Stock Forms Bearish Engulfing Pattern
4. Semiconductors in a Head and Shoulders Pattern
5. Apple Correction Weighs on Indexes

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/5-cr ... s_headline