HK & China - Market Direction 01 (May08 - Oct08)

Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby winston » Wed Sep 24, 2008 1:51 pm

White the world is banning short-selling, China is trying to introduce short-selling. Do they know something that we dont ? :P

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China preparing for stock margin trade -sources By Samuel Shen

SHANGHAI, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The securities regulator has asked China's two stock exchanges to submit final plans for the introduction of margin trade and short-selling of shares, people with direct knowledge of the situation said.

The move by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) may mark a decisive step forward for the reforms, which the government has been studying since 2006, said two sources, who declined to be identified because they were not authorised to speak to the media.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have completed work on the plans, but the final decision to proceed will be made by the regulator and no timetable has been set, the sources said this week.

"We are basically ready for the reforms," one of the sources said, adding that he believed the regulator wanted to proceed as soon as possible. "The CSRC will have the final say on when they go ahead."

A CSRC spokeswoman said on Wednesday that she could not comment. A spokesman for the Shanghai Stock Exchange did not answer calls seeking comment.

As part of efforts to deepen the stock market and make it more efficient, the government has long intended to introduce margin trade, under which investors can borrow money from brokerages to buy shares, and short-selling, in which they can borrow shares from brokerages to sell them.

The launch of the scheme has been delayed by massive volatility in the stock market -- first a bull run that boosted the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC sixfold between mid-2005 and last October, and then a bear market which took the index down more than 70 percent.

RESCUE PLAN

But authorities may now believe a government rescue plan for the market is creating conditions under which reforms can proceed.

The index soared 18 percent on Friday and Monday after authorities cut the trading tax and announced that a government fund would buy shares from the market, although the rebound has since stalled because of the turmoil in global equities markets.

"Margin trade could boost trading turnover, while the risks involved in launching short-selling are small after the stock market's bubble burst," said Li Xianming, strategist at Ping An Securities.

"It's actually good timing. The reform should benefit the market," Li said, adding that after the passing of the Beijing Olympics in August, the government would be able to switch its attention to other issues such as capital markets reform.

An introduction of short-selling in China would contrast with regulatory moves in much of the rest of the world. In response to the global financial crisis, U.S. and British regulators this month temporarily banned short-selling of financial stocks, while Australia, Singapore and Taiwan restricted the practice.

But both margin trade and short-selling in China would initially be conducted on a "trial basis" involving a limited number of brokerages and investors, with restrictions on the scale of trading.

This would allow authorities to monitor the impact on the stock market, and suspend trade if they felt short-selling was endangering the market's stability.

Under modified proposals to be submitted by the stock exchanges to the CSRC next month, investors would be allowed to take out loans from brokerages to buy stocks under a process similar to margin trading in Hong Kong, a person with direct knowledge of the plan said.

The use of borrowed funds to buy stocks has been banned in China since the mid-1990s, when the practice fuelled rampant market speculation that triggered a government crackdown.
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Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Sep 24, 2008 5:26 pm

Please be forewarned that you are reading a post by an otiose housewife. ImageImage**Image**Image@@ImageImageImage
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Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby winston » Thu Sep 25, 2008 8:15 am

Beijing seeks proactive approach amid turmoil
KathyWang

Amid global market turmoil and signs of decelerating economic growth, China's series of recent measures suggest the country has reached a turning point in macro policy and is taking a more proactive approach in supporting the domestic asset markets, an expert said.

"With inflationary pressures subsiding, policymakers have the necessary leeway to ease monetary policy," said Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at JPMorgan.

"We believe that policymakers will consider further cuts to required reserve ratio and interest rates in the coming months, with a more pro active fiscal policy in the remainder of the year."

Additional measures to boost the market include the establishment of a stabilization fund for the A-share market, and further reform of the rules to the disposal of the nontradable shares, Ulrich said.

China has allowed Central Huijin, an arm of the sovereign funds, to buy shares in the three biggest lenders, one of the measures aimed at trying to restore confidence battered by global financial turmoil.

Ulrich said the reason the Chinese banks have so far turned out to be immune from the global financial turmoil is because they have very limited exposure to the international financial market.

"The big surprise in store is what could happen in China. The potential for a deep recession in the United States is already on the radar screen, but people will be stunned if China's economy contracts, as I believe it will," Albert Edwards, Societe Generale's global strategist, told The Daily Telegraph.
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Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby winston » Thu Sep 25, 2008 8:17 am

Short-selling suspension ruled out despite panic
Katherine Ng

Hong Kong has no plan to suspend short-selling even though the Bank of East Asia (0023) panic shows the vulnerability of the local financial market to speculators, the government said.

"[Ours is a] different situation from overseas markets and we see no rush to follow suit in the issue," said a spokesman for the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau. "We have tick-up moves and have banned `naked' short sales to control the risks. We would review the policy immediately if there is a need."

The Securities and Futures Commission will continue to monitor developments closely and liaise with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388) if any changes are needed, a commission spokesman told The Standard.

In order to maintain the stability of their financial markets and banking systems, countries including the United States, Britain, Singapore and Japan have announced they will suspend short-selling activities temporarily.
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Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby -dol- » Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:13 am

They should keep the "uptick rule" for short-selling. Remember that they did consider and were on the verge of doing away with it last year - to follow of all people, the US. Thought it was a terrible idea. Regulators become complacent in a bull market.
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Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby winston » Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:53 am

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges said they have revised restrictions on share purchases by major shareholders, in a bid to support stock prices.

Under revised rules, a shareholder holding over 30 pct of a listed firm cannot raise his stake during 10 days before financial results are disclosed. The previous period was 30 days.

The revised rules take effect today, the stock exchanges said.

Last week, China's state assets regulator encouraged controlling shareholders of state-owned firms to buy shares from the market.

PetroChina, ICBC, China Construction Bank, Bank of China and China Unicom have announced that their parents have undertaken buybacks.
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Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby winston » Thu Sep 25, 2008 3:50 pm

China Stocks Jump on Speculation Government to Step Up Buying By Zhang Shidong

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks surged after the country's two exchanges eased restrictions on equity buying by controlling shareholders and on speculation government-run investors increased purchases.

China Oilfield Services Ltd., the drilling unit of the nation's third-largest oil producer, and Offshore Oil Engineering Co., a unit of China National Offshore Oil Corp., both surged more than 8 percent on speculation the companies' parents will increase their stakes. Citic Securities Co. rose to the highest since August on expectation the regulator will allow investors to borrow from brokerages to buy shares.

``More central-government owned enterprises will buy shares in their listed units to reflect the regulators' directive to bolster the market,'' said Lu Yizhen, who oversees the equivalent of $732 million as chief investment officer at Tianhong Asset Management Co. in Beijing. ``The rebound is very likely to carry on.'' Lu said he has bought shares, declining to give details.

The CSI 300 Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, surged 103.17, or 4.8 percent, to 2,242.02 as of 1:29 p.m. local time, extending a gain of 0.7 percent yesterday. Only one stock fell on the 300-member gauge.

The CSI 300 has rebounded 18 percent since Sept. 18, when the government announced it would buy shares in the three- biggest listed banks and cut a stock trading tax to bolster equities. The gauge has slumped 58 percent this year on concern the domestic economic growth will slow down, becoming the world's second-worst performer.

`Role Model'

China Oilfield jumped 8.8 percent to 15.43 yuan. Offshore Oil climbed the 10 percent daily limit to 15.38 yuan. Li Shiqiang, media relations manager at China Oilfield's parent China National Offshore Oil Corp., said he isn't aware of a stake purchase plan. Wu Yanyan, the Beijing-based spokesman of China Oilfield, didn't pick up calls to her office telephone.

Under new rules taking effect today, the period in which controlling shareholders are barred from raising their stakes in publicly traded companies has been cut to 10 days before earnings are released, from 30, according to statements from the exchanges.

China's state-owned companies should be ``a role model'' in promoting ``stable'' development of the nation's capital markets by buying back shares in publicly traded units, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said Sept. 18.

``It's very likely the controlling shareholders will buy shares in China Oilfield, as encouraged by the central government,'' said Grace Liu, an oil analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Hong Kong Co., in Shenzhen.

Unicom

China United Telecommunications Corp., owner of the nation's second-largest mobile-phone operator, rose 4.9 percent to 5.56 yuan. The company today said its parent bought about 50 million shares on the Shanghai stock exchange yesterday, when the stock jumped 7.7 percent.

Citic Securities, the brokerage unit of China's biggest investment company, climbed 9.6 percent to 23 yuan, set for the highest close since Aug. 1. Haitong Securities Co., the country's largest listed brokerage by market value, gained 9.1 percent to 19.50 yuan.

``There is speculation the securities regulator is working on rules on margin financing and short selling,'' said Lu at Tianhong Asset Management.

Margin buying allows investors to pay a percentage of the cost of a stock, with the brokerage financing the rest through a loan. China clamped down on unauthorized margin trading in 1997 and 2001, when banks were found to have illegally channeled money into the stock market.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, advanced 4.5 percent to 2,315.51. The Shenzhen Composite Index added 3.6 percent to 610.54.
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Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby winston » Fri Sep 26, 2008 9:13 am

China premier vows policy-tuning to boost markets

SHANGHAI, Sept 26 (Reuters) - China's premier Wen Jiabao has pledged to adjust his government's policies in a timely manner to help stabilise capital markets, state media said on Friday, as Beijing takes steps to boost the country's sagging stock market.

"The Chinese government will strengthen the flexibility and appropriateness of macroeconomic adjustments to maintain the stability of the economy as well as financial and capital markets," Wen was quoted as telling U.S. financial personnel in New York during his current visit the the United States.

Wen also said China was willing to cooperate with the United States in helping to stabilise global financial markets that are in turmoil due to the U.S. credit crisis, the official Shanghai Securities News said.

Last week, the Chinese government unveiled an unprecedented package of steps to bolster the stock market, including scrapping taxes on stock purchases and encouraging state-owned corporations to buy back shares of their listed units.

Major shareholders of more than 40 listed firms, including the parent of top Asian oil producer PetroChina (601857.SS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and major telecommunications service firm China Unicom (600050.SS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), have bought back or have announced plans to buy back shares over the past several weeks.
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Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby winston » Fri Sep 26, 2008 12:02 pm

The China markets will be shut all through next week for the National Day holiday.

The settlement of September Hang Seng index futures contracts next Monday will also keep trade cautious.
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Re: HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy

Postby winston » Fri Sep 26, 2008 12:52 pm

China approves short selling, margin lending

China's cabinet agreed to let investors buy shares on credit and sell borrowed stock to help develop Asia's second-largest market after prices and trading volumes slumped, an official familiar with the plan said.

The State Council signed off on a China Securities Regulatory Commission plan submitted this month to allow margin lending and short selling, said the official.

China's action contrasts with regulators in the US, Europe and Australia that have banned short selling in the past week to shore up financial shares battered by the global credit squeeze.

It will take several days for the paperwork to go through, and the plan will be announced either before the week-long National Day holiday next week or right after it, said the official.

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