Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 7, 2024

earnings.png

Next Catalyst: US Earnings Season?

The markets were weak this week with the exception of Bursa.

I was expecting the "new money from the new month" and the "January Effect" to provide a spike in the markets this week. However, it looks like the Fund Managers may have spent their Cash in advance for "Window Dressing" purposes.

Anyway, everyone is now waiting for the US Earnings Season starting next next week, to provide some catalyst for the markets to move higher. Thereafter, it would be the FOMC Meeting on Jan 31st.

In the meantime, there was a good article on Yahoo Finance which discussed the "9 economic trends to watch in 2024".
1. Labor market: How cool will it get?
2. Inflation: Is the worst behind us?
3. Monetary policy: Tight for how long?
4. Sentiment: Finally a vibe-spansion?
5. Economic growth: Slowdown, recession, or something else?
6. Corporate profit margins: Will they hold up?
7. Interest expense: Will it become a problem?
8. Corporate earnings: Better or worse than the growth expected?
9. Stock market: Will it do what it usually does?

I didnt trade at all this week as there was no real set-up.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (46% from 46% last week from 53% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 51% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$74 from US$71 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2053 from US$2072 from US$2065;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.80 from US$3.89 from US$3.90;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$91 from US$91 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 44137 from 42029 last week from 45653 two weeks ago @ 7.31 AM on Jan 06, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "74 Extreme Greed" from "76 Extreme Greed" last week from "77 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4697 from 4770 last week from 4595 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16535 from 17047 from 16340;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2929 from 2975 from 2915;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33377 from 33464 from 33169;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1488 from 1455 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sultan Ibrahim will assume the role of the 17th Yang di-Pertuan Agong on Jan 31, 2024.
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 06 @ 11.00 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 145 from 141 last week from 142 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.50 from 3.48 from 3.52;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.67 from 0.68 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.09 from 1.11 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8131 from 7.8139 from 7.8129;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.66 from 4.59 from 4.66;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.33 from 1.32 from 1.32;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.12 from 7.09 from 7.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 102.15 from 100.87 from 101.36;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.05% from 3.87% from 3.90%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.39% from 4.25% from 4.33%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.88 from 94.84 from 94.66;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.68 from 77.68 from 77.47;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2110 from 2094 from 2094; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 14, 2024

Same old.jpg

Same Old, Same Old?

The US and Malaysian markets have been grinding higher this week, while HK & China, have been weak again.

With the US Earnings season underway, I have a strange feeling that things may not be that smooth sailing for the next few weeks.

US Earnings Expectations are quite high and things seems to be priced for perfection.

If the current Red Sea conflict starts to spin out of control, Oil prices could also spike up. (I dont think that the world has priced in a regional war yet).

On the interest rates front, interest rates could stay elevated for a while and the expected rates cut in 1Q may not materialize unless there's a full blown crisis.

In view of the above, I need to remind myself to be not so adventurous. Even-though I have been concentrating my portfolio on HK & China as they are "oversold", any crash in the US would also bring the HK & China shares down by about 10% to 15%.

For next week, I think that it would be the "same old, same old" situation. Maybe that's not too bad either as the alternative is a full blown crash, triggered by some regional war in the Red Sea.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (45% from 46% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 56% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 34% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 10% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$73 from US$74 last week from US$71 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Flat. US$2054 from US$2053 last week from US$2072;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.74 from US$3.80 from US$3.89;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$93 from US$91 last week from US$91 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 42785 from 44137 last week from 42029 two weeks ago @ 9.40 AM on Jan 13, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "71 Greed" from "74 Extreme Greed" last week from "76 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4784 from 4697 last week from 4770 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16215 from 16535 from 17047;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2929 from 2975 from 2915;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33377 from 33464 from 33169;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1488 from 1455 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sultan Ibrahim will assume the role of the 17th Yang di-Pertuan Agong on Jan 31, 2024.
c. Sold Capital A
d. Sold MAHB


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Jan 12 @ 1.58 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 145 from 145 last week from 141 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.49 from 3.50 from 3.48;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.10 from 1.09 from 1.11;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8182 from 7.8131 from 7.8139;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.64 from 4.66 from 4.59;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.33 from 1.33 from 1.32 from 1.32;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.15 from 7.12 from 7.09;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.98 from 102.15 last week from 100.87 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.94% from 4.05% from 3.87%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.15% from 4.39% from 4.25%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.99 from 93.88 from 94.84;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.61 from 76.68 from 77.68;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1554 from 2110 from 2094; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 21, 2024

Same old.jpg

Same Old, Same Old (Part 2)

The US and Japanese markets were hitting record highs while HK & China were hitting lows again.

As expected, I was again adding to my HK holdings in view of the sell-off in HK. As mentioned, this tactical trading strategy is a dangerous one and a "pure trader" would not be doing what I'm currently doing. Anyway, I will probably sell at the 50% retracement as I think that HK is just too "oversold". And if I'm able to control my emotions and wait for a few years, my gut feel is that if I could be quite well rewarded. (I have this bad habit of taking small profits).

As for the US and Japan, I think that their "bull run" cannot continue for too long. In fact, one of the biggest bull on Wall Street, Tom Lee of Fundstrat, has turned a bit bearish recently. He's now bracing for a 7% drop in the stock market after this month. That's due to uncertainty over a potential recession and Fed rate cuts this year. However, over the course of the year, Tom Lee remains bullish on the stock market.

And to frighten you a bit more, Bloomberg had a recent article titled ," A Pessimist’s Guide to Global Economic Risks in 2024":-
1. The Middle East Is On the Brink
2. The Fed Could Get Burned (Again)
3. Europe Is Feeling the Chill
4. China Looks Wobbly
5. Japan Risks Losing (Yield Curve) Control
6. Ukraine at a Tipping Point
7. Game-Changing Elections in Taiwan
8. US Presidential Election

However, there are also some "bullish articles" too and the following is on Energy from "Market 360":-
Four Reasons to be Bullish on the Energy Sector
1. Severe Winter Weather
2. Dropping Oil Inventories
3. Escalating Tensions in the Middle East
4. The Fourth-Quarter Earnings Season

There was also a recent article in the Wall Street Journal titled: "The $8.8 Trillion Cash Pile That Has Stock-Market Bulls Salivating".

And a final bullish article from Investor Place:-
The fact is that 2024 is shaping up to be a perfect storm: strong seasonal factors, fizzling inflation, an improving earnings environment, an accommodative Fed, falling interest rates, an economic growth resurgence and a presidential election cycle.

For next week, I would be watching the following:-
1. US: PCE Inflation (Jan 26)
2. Malaysia: Will Najib be pardoned?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (49% from 45% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 9% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$73 from US$73 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2032 from US$2054 last week from US$2053 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.79 from US$3.74 from US$3.80;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$106 from US$93 last week from US$91 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 41073 from 42785 last week from 44137 two weeks ago @ 11.11 AM on Jan 19, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "72 greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "74 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4840 from 4784 last week from 4697 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 15309 from 16215 from 16535;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
d. Added to Baidu
e. Added to Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2832 from 2929 from 2975;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 35963 from 33377 from 33464;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1488 from 1455 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sultan Ibrahim will be the new Agong on Jan 31, 2024.
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Jan 19 @ 11.13 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 148 from 145 last week from 145 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.51 from 3.49 from 3.50;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.09 from 1.10 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8217 from 7.8182 from 7.8131;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.71 from 4.64 from 4.66;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.34 from 1.33 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.16 from 7.15 from 7.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.13 from 101.98 last week from 102.15 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.13% from 3.94% from 4.05%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.39% from 4.15% from 4.39%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.28 from 94.99 from 93.88;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.03 from 77.61 from 76.68;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1357 from 1554 from 2110; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 21, 2024

Feb.jpeg

New Money From the New Month

It will be a new month again and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets next week.

For the US markets, it would continued to be driven by earnings season.

For HK & China, I think that it's close to the bottom or maybe even have touched bottom already. The question is what would be the catalyst for it to rise from here.

For this week, as the US markets have been touching new highs, there were not too many bearish articles except for the following:-
1. UBS - Downside scenario for a S&P 500 crash of more than 20%
a. A potential recession
b. Rising inflation and
c. Geopolitical turmoil

While we have a few bullish articles:-

1. Meb Faber, CEO, Cambria Investments:-
a. Is buying stocks at an all-time high a good idea? It is not a good idea but a GREAT idea
b. Remain in stocks if they’re trading at all-time highs at the end of the month.
c. If they’re not at all-time highs, then move into government bonds

2. Daily Wealth: Stocks are set to head higher this year because good years tend to follow good years.
a. Last year, stocks rose 26% and 2023’s strong finish tells us stocks could jump 19% this year.
b. Good years follow good years. A powerful year-end rally all but ensures more gains will follow.

For next week, I would be watching the following:-
1. US: Jan 30 & 31: FOMC Meeting
2. Malaysia: Jan 31 - Sultan Ibrahim will be the new Agung


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (52% from 49% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 57% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 8% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$78 from US$73 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2018 from US$2032 last week from US$2054 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.85 from US$3.79 from US$3.74;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$106 from US$106 last week from US$93 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 41874 from 41073 last week from 42785 two weeks ago @ 6.24 AM on Jan 27, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "77 Extreme Greed: from "72 Greed" last week from "71 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4891 from 4840 last week from 4784 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Bought Archer Daniel Midland (ADM)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 15952 from 15309 from 16215;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Lenovo
d. Sold 1/4 Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2910 from 2832 from 2929;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 35751 from 35963 from 33377;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1506 from 1488 from 1455:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sultan Ibrahim will be the new Agung on Jan 31, 2024.
c. Traded YNH


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Jan 26 @ 5.25PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 148 last week from 145 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.52 from 3.51 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7878 from 7.8217 from 7.8182;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.71 from 4.71 from 4.64;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.13 from 7.16 from 7.15;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.31 from 103.13 last week from 101.98 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.14% from 4.13% from 3.94%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.36% from 4.39% from 4.15%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.13 from 94.28 from 94.99;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.68 from 77.03 from 77.61;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1499 from 1357 from 1554; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 04, 2024

CNY Rally.jpeg

Will There Be A CNY Rally?

The US markets are making new highs again while HK & China are still weak.

I remained over-weighted in HK & China but I'm aware that a correction in the US markets can also trigger a sharp dip in HK & China.

If there's a 10% to 20% additional decline in HK & China, it can also trigger a lot of margin calls there.

My exposure to Equities is about 50%. It's on the higher side and I should try to bring it down to about 40%. However, the HK market has been very weak over the past few weeks and I took the opportunity to add to my positions there.

I'm not sure whether there would be a CNY rally. My gut feel is that there could be one as it's bonus time for the employees and that the China government may have something up their sleeve to lift the markets up before CNY. For Bursa, it has ben steadily increasing for the past few months.

If there's really a CNY rally, I may want to use the opportunity to raise some Cash.

For this week, there were somehow a lot of bearish articles:-

1. Gary Shilling;-
a. Expects S&P 500 returns to slump
b. Warns that a recession could stretch into 2025

2, Nassim Taleb:-
a. The US is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

3. Robert Prechter:-
a. Investors are too complacent as evidenced by the low levels in the VIX
b. A 30% correction to stocks wouldn't be surprising

4. The Motley Fool:-
a. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked the 21st consecutive month of declines. The LEI strongly suggests a recession is likely in 2024.
b. The spread (difference in yield) between the 10-year Treasury bond and three-month Treasury bill is hitting its steepest point in roughly four decades. This New York Fed's tool is forecasting a nearly 63% probability of a recession taking place by or before December 2024.
c. M2 money supply is contracting
d. The forward P/E multiple on the S&P 500 is 21.0x. It is well above the "rule of 20" ballpark fair value at 16x. With a 500-basis point premium, it remains a real cause for concern.


Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (50% from 52% last week from 49% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 56% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$72 from US$78 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2057 from US$2018 from US$2032;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.82 from US$3.85 from US$3.79;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$100 from US$106 from US$106;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 43165 from 41874 last week from 41073 two weeks ago @ 7.10 AM on Feb 3, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "67 Greed" from "77 Extreme Greed" last week from "72 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4959 from 4891 last week from 4840 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Sold Archer Daniel Midland (ADM)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 15533 from 15952 from 15309;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2730 from 2910 from 2832;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 36158 from 35751 from 35963;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1517 from 1506 from 1488:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Traded YNH


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 03 @ 7.22 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 148 from 147 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.51 from 3.52 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Lower; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8234 from 7.7878 from 7.8217;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.72 from 4.71 from 4.71;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.19 from 7.13 from 7.16;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.83 from 103.31 last week from 103.13 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.02% from 4.14% from 4.13%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.37% from 4.36% from 4.39%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.45 from 95.13 from 94.28;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.17 from 77.68 from 77.03;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1388 from 1499 from 1357; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 11, 2024

Complacent.jpg

Complacent Markets?

The US markets are again making new highs while HK gave back most of it's gain from last Tuesday.

The market players are starting to think that this trend will continue and are being a bit "complacent".

As for myself, I'm quite wary that this could be the "calm before the storm". If any of the "Magnificent 7" is hit, it can spread very quickly. And I dont think that HK would be spared either even-though it's quite oversold.

For this week, there were a lot of bearish articles:-

1. Jeff Clark:-
a. Consider cashing out of stocks and taking the rest of the year off

2. Leon Cooperman:-
a. Expects stocks to slide this year
b. Worried about soaring National Debt.
c. Stocks are already pricing in strong earnings and an improving economic outlook

3. Tom Lee:-
a. A correction appears imminent after the S&P 500 rallied 21% over a period of 14 weeks
b. Maintains a bullish view on stocks for 2024 but said history suggests the market is about to reach a short-term peak.

And for those who are interested in gold:-
"Four factors that are likely to support a bullish run for gold in 2024":-
1. Falling interest rates
2. Weakening dollar
3. Rising geopolitical tensions
4. Buying pressure from global central banks


Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (52% from 50% last week from 52% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 57% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$77 from US$72 last week from US$78 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2039 from US$2057 from US$2018;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.69 from US$3.82 from US$3.85;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$106 from US$100 from US$106;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 46633 from 43165 last week from 41874 two weeks ago @ 5.50 PM on Feb 9[, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "78 Extreme Greed" from "67 Greed" from last week from "77 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5027 from 4959 last week from 4891 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 15746 from 15533 from 15952;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2866 from 2730 from 2910;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 36944 from 36158 from 35751;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1512 from 1517 from 1506:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 09 @ 1.18 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 149 from 148 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.54 from 3.51 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8213 from 7.8234 from 7.7878;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.77 from 4.72 from 4.71;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.20 from 7.19 from 7.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.06 from 103.83 last week from 103.31 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.18% from 4.02% from 4.14%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.49% from 4.37% from 4.36%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.45 from 95.13 from 94.28;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.17 from 77.68 from 77.03;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1473 from 1388 from 1499; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 18, 2024

China Rally.jpeg

HK & China Rally?

The HK market were trending upwards over the past three days. Are the market players buying on anticipating of a strong opening of the China markets on Monday? (China has been closed for a week).

Long time readers would know that I have been quite bullish on the China & HK markets over the past few weeks for following reasons:-
1. The foreigners have probably sold whatever they could
2. The locals wont be selling at this price
3. Short-Selling of China shares are very difficult now
4. It's quite oversold and values are emerging
5. The foreigners are starting to buy again eg. Canadian Pension Plan, Michael Burry etc.

The question now is what would be the catalyst that would push the HK & China markets higher. Would it be one of the following?
1. Short-Covering?
2. Buying by National Team? ( US$2t on stand-by?).
3. FOMO by the army of China retail investors?
4. SOEs buybacks?
5. SOEs increasing their dividends?
6. Supportive Programs for Property Sector?
7. Stimulus Programs for the economy?
8. Tax Incentives for certain sectors?
etc.

Whatever the reason, I think that the HK & China markets are now a steadily increasing "trading market".

That means that I should continue to take any profits on any counter that rises say +7% per day if there are no new news for that counter. Thereafter, I should try buy the counter back when it retraces about 3% over the next two to three days.

The above trading strategy requires a bit of work though. If not, it's probably time to just "buy & hold". However, with my impatient character, trading in and out of stocks, is probably a more suitable strategy for me.

Although, I'm very bullish on the HK& China markets, I need to also remind myself of some of the risks out there including:-
1. Ongoing "Cold War" between the US & China
2. Ongoing discussions of the delisting of US ADRs in 2024
3. Trump becoming President in Nov 2024 (60% sanctions?)
4. Crash of the "Magnificent Seven" affecting global equities
5. Escalation of the Ukraine and Israel war
etc.

BTW, the following are some of the comments this week by the "experts" (mostly bearish):-

1. Paul Dietrich
a. Plowing cash into this type of stock market could be a "mistake"
b. While inflation has cooled from its highs, not all is well in the "wonderland" economy.
c. A mild recession could send S&P 500 tumbling by more than a third

2. Jeffrey Gundlach:-
a. Stocks are as overvalued as they were at the start of the 2022 bear market
b. The new highs resulted from rate cut expectations, which have been excessive
c. He suggested investors turn to credit and cash, making fund available for when stocks cheapen.

3. UBS: These are the three things for the stock market rally to continue:-
a. More good news on the economy would be needed
b. We are looking for signs that Fed cuts are delayed but not by too much
c. We are watching to see if AI monetization trends pick up

4. Tom Lee
a. It's unlikely that the stock market hit its peak following the hotter-than-expected January CPI report
b. There are too many bullish factors that suggest this is another buy-the-dip type of decline.
c. "As the adage goes, we will peak when we 'sell-off on good news' — we are watching for a top but this sell-off seems too consensus"
d. There is a record $6 trillion sitting in money market funds
f. FINRA margin debt levels are well below their peak and typically surge to a new record as the market peaks.

For next week, I'll be watching whether the Dragon will really be entering the HK & China markets. If it does, I may decide to raise some Cash especially towards the end of the week. Nowadays, the rally in HK can last at most 1.5 days only.


Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (47% from 52% last week from 50% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$79 from US$77 last week from US$72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand especially China
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2026 from US$2039 from US$2057;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Prolonged elevated US interest rates will not be good for Commodities
c. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.82 from US$3.69 from US$3.82;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$103 from US$106 from US$100;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$52102 from US$46633 last week from US$43165 two weeks ago @ 2.10 PM on Feb 16, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian, Venezuela Sanction & Hacking
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "77 Extreme Greed" from "78 Extreme Greed" last week from "67 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 5006 from 5027 last week from 4959 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Sold Grab

2. HK Equities - Higher. 16339 from 15746 from 15533;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 2866 from 2866 from 2730;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38487 from 36944 from 36158;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1536 from 1512 from 1517:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 18 @ 2.03 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 150 from 149 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.55 from 3.54 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8218 from 7.8213 from 7.8234;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.77 from 4.72;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.19 from 7.20 from 7.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.30 from 104.06 last week from 103.83 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.28% from 4.18% from 4.02%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.64% from 4.49% from 4.37%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.83 from 94.45 from 95.13;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.14 from 77.17 from 77.68;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1581 from 1473 from 1388; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 25, 2024

China Rally.jpeg

HK & China Rally (Part 2)

As expected, we have had a rally in the HK & China markets this week. However, it was not as strong as I anticipated. It looks like a "two steps forward, one step backwards" type of situation.

Maybe it's better this way as a strong rally could encourage sudden profit-taking. In addition, a "slow & steady" climb could also encourage some of the traders (like me) to just "buy & hold" instead of trading regularly for small profits.

The surprise this week was the leap of NVDA in the US and the new high in the Japanese market. It shows me that anything is possible so it's always good to remain flexible and open-minded.

Moving on, the following are some of the bearish articles this week;-

1. Roukaya Ibrahim, BCA Strategist:- .
a. A downturn would come sometime before early 2025.
b. Once the economy slips into a contraction, stocks could plunge 26%

2. Cole Smead, Smead Capital CEO:-
a. 50-50 chance stocks could lose as much as 30% in the next two years

3. JPM:-
a. The US is heading towards stagflation, which would be terrible news for stocks

And the following are some bullish articles:-

1. Ed Yardeni:-
a. Stocks could soar 30% in the next 2 years if 'mob psychology' doesn't spark a meltdown
b. Stocks risk a "meltup" as AI investor exuberance gets out of control

2. Daily Wealth:-
a. The Advance / Decline on the S&P 500 is back on the rise
b. For now, stocks are hitting highs in a healthy way

For next week, I'm expecting the HK & China markets to resume their slow climb. If there's a sharp spike upwards ( say 7%), I may use the opportunity to raise some Cash. However, my expectations is for a boring slow-rising market.

I dont think that the HK & China markets will dip sharply as the National Team is on standby to support the market. If it does dip sharply, I will probably add to my existing positions depending on the cause of the dip at that time.


Risk Management Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat; (47% from 47% last week from 52% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$79 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2046 from US$2026 from US$2039;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.87 from US$3.82 from US$3.69;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$102 from US$103 from US$106;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$51200 from US$52102 last week from US$46633 two weeks ago @ 2.31 PM on Feb 23, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Illegal Activities, Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian and Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "78 Extreme Greed" from "77 Extreme Greed" last week from "78 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5089 from 5006 last week from 5027 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 16726 from 16339 from 15746;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3005 from 2866 from 2866;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 39099 from 38487 from 36944;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1549 from 1536 from 1512:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought a small speculative IT company


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 23 @ 2.18 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 151 from 150 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.56 from 3.55 from 3.54;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8337 from 7.8218 from 7.8213;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.79 from 4.78 from 4.77;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.20 from 7.19 from 7.20;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.85 from 104.30 last week from 104.06 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.25% from 4.35% from 4.28%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.69% from 4.71% from 4.64%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.65 from 94.83 from 94.45;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.30 from 77.14 from 77.17;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1752 from 1581 from 1473; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ March 3, 2024

image.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It's a new month again so new money would be flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, we should see a spike in the markets next week if the Fund Managers have not already spent the money in advance on Thursday & Friday.

Anyway, the US markets were again grinding higher while HK & China was a bit choppy.

I remained cautiously bullish on the HK & China markets. In addition, you also have the "Two Sessions" (NPC and CPPCC) on March 4 & 5.

I'm expecting some stimulus programs to be announced at these "Two Sessions" and if there's a rally at that time, then it's a good time to sell into that rally as I think that it's still a "trading market".

Nowadays, I'm forcing myself to take profits on any spike of > 7% (on no news) and then try to buy it back on the fade, at say 4%.

For this week, there was a strong warning from Morgan Stanley:-
a. A hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy
b. It could take 18 months after the last rate hike, to feel the full weight of higher rates

For next week, I'll be keeping an eye on the "Two Sessions", to see whether there's any trading opportunities.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (36% from 47% last week from 47% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$84 from US$77 last week from US$79 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2092 from US$2046 from US$2026;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Flat. US$3.86 from US$3.87 from US$3.82
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$95 from US$102 from US$103;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$62478 from US$51200 last week from US$52102 two weeks ago @ 6.45 AM on March 2, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "77 Extreme Greed" from "78 Extreme Greed" last week from "77 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5137 from 5089 last week from 5006 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Added Baidu
i. Sold XLE (Senior Oil Producers ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16589 from 16726 from 16339;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added Baidu
d. Sold 1/3 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
e. Sold 2/3 Meituan
f. Sold Lenovo

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3027 from 3005 from 2866;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 39911 from 39099 from 38487;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1538 from 1549 from 1536:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold PUC


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 01 @ 9.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 150 from 151 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.52 from 3.56 from 3.55;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8162 from 7.8337 from 7.8218;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.74 from 4.79 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.19 from 7.20 from 7.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.10 from 103.85 last week from 104.30 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.19% from 4.25% from 4.35%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.53% from 4.69% from 4.71%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.42 from 94.65 from 94.83;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.18 from 77.30 from 77.14;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2203 from 1752 from 1581; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ March 10, 2024

Negativity.jpeg

What could go wrong?

Doug Kass has a recent article on the "risks out there" and they are as follows:-

1. Stacked or cumulative inflation, will weigh on the U.S. consumer especially the lower income segment.

2. In part reflecting sticky inflation, interest rates will be higher for longer squeezing overleveraged borrowers (especially commercial real estate).

3. Quantitative tightening is about to kick in as RRP (Reverse Repurchase Agreement operations) drains to near zero.

4. Political and geopolitical headwinds, are fierce and show no signs of abating.

5. Our growing annual deficit and nation's debt load has not and will not likely be addressed by an unprecedented political partisanship.

6. The unstable tribal mentality of the extremes on the political left and right dominate our society: the loss of moderation spells more societal troubles.

7. Valuations, based on historical measures, are almost all above the 90%-tile. Rarely do bull markets start from current price-earnings levels.

8. Equity prices have decoupled from interest rates -- the equity risk premium is at a multi-decade low and the spread between the S&P 500 dividend yield and the yield on Treasuries has rarely been wider.

9. Investor sentiment is giddy and the Bull Market in Complacency is worrisome.

10. Like prior periods in history, a changing market structure, including ODTE options trading, of leveraged quantitative strategies & products and a general dependence on price momentum represent bona fide threats on possible market instability.


In addition, we also have a few other bearish comments this week:-

1. Milton Berg said that stocks may be close to a final peak as speculation runs hot. He warned a recession appears likely, based on several economic indicators that are flashing red. Berg suggested stocks might drop 8% to 15%.

2. John Hussman flagged the risk of a 63% plunge in the S&P 500

3. Jeremy Grantham raised the prospect of a 50% decline

4. Tom Lee: The upcoming Feb CPI inflation report on March 12th could spark the stock market's next big sell-off

And before you sell everything tomorrow, you may want to first listen to Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini who has turned 180 degrees and is now bullish on the economy:-
b. Less worried than in the past
c. There is a serious possibility of "no landing"
d. Growth remains above potential
e. Inflation remains sticky because of technology and other factors
f. The Fed doesn't cut three times, only two, one maybe zero

In view of the above, I need to remind myself to be not too "over-confident" with my China Big Tech positions. A severe dip in the US Tech Stocks will also affect the China Big techs especially when the margin calls hit the fan.

However, if there's really a severe dip, it would probably be "V-Shaped" as there's US$9t of Cash sitting on the sidelines now. But going through a 15% dip is also not fun either.

For next week, I will be watching the following:-
1. US CPI Report: Tuesday, Mar 12th
2. AIA Earnings: Thursday, Mar 14th
3. CKH Earnings: Thursday, Mar 14th


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (38% from 36% last week from 47% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$78 from US$77 last week from US$79 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2186 from US$2092 from US$2046;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$25 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.89 from US$3.86 from US$3.87;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$94 from US$95 from US$102;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$67845 from US$62478 last week from US$51200 two weeks ago @ 6.45 AM on March 2, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "71 Greed" from "77 Extreme Greed" last week from "78 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 5124 from 5137 last week from 5089 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16353 from 16589 from 16726;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Sands China
d. Added to 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
e. Traded JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3046 from 3027 from 3005;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 39689 from 39911 from 39099;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1540 from 1538 from 1549:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 08 @ 9.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 150 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.53 from 3.52 from 3.56;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.10 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8202 from 7.8162 from 7.8337;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.69 from 4.74 from 4.79;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.33 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.19 from 7.19 from 7.20;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 102.52 from 104.10 last week from 103.85 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.08% from 4.19% from 4.25%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.48% from 4.53% from 4.69%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.66 from 94.42 from 94.65;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.38 from 77.18 from 77.30;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2251 from 2203 from 1752; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

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