Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 29, 2023

Trading Ideas.png

Various Trading Ideas:-

It will soon be a new month and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, there should be a spike in the markets early next week. Thereafter, I'm expecting the markets to be quite choppy until the "Year End Window Dressing" season.

My trading strategy remains cautious and I'm keeping a higher level of Cash. Anyway, over the past few weeks, I've been thinking of the following trading ideas:-
1. Shorting Nasdaq
2. Buying Long Term US Bonds
3. Adding China Big Techs
4. Adding HK & China Blue Chips
5. Buying Japanese Yen
6. Shorting Japanese Equities
7. Shorting USD Index

As for #1 above, I've been waiting to short the Nasdaq market. I think that the "Magnificent Seven" is being overbought and they now make up a huge % of the Nasdaq 100 . Their combined PE is around 45. Recently, the Nasdaq seemed to be also forming a "M" on the charts. I will probably use the PSQ to short the Nasdaq market. Once the slide begins, I may switch to using the SQQQ (3x Inverse).

As for #2, I've also been waiting to buy some long-term US Bonds for the eventual drop in interest rates. However, people seemed to believe the "higher for longer rates" story for now. Therefore, I may wait for around November 17th, to see whether there would be any "US Government Shutdown" first. By then, we should also have more clarity on the current Israel -Gaza conflict. I will probably use the TLT (20+ Treasury Bond ETF) for #2.

As for #3, I already have some exposure to the China Big Techs eg. Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan and 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF). I may continue to add to my positions as and when there's a severe dip.

As for #4, I think that China & HK are "oversold" now. I have been slowly adding to my positions there. However, I should be mindful that they will also drop if there's a deep crash in the US.

As for #5, I think that the drop in the JPY is quite overdone. It has moved from around 1.00 to 1.50 in less than three years. When inflation eventually appears in Japan, they will need to increase interest rates and the JPY should strengthen from there. I will probably use the FCY (Long JPY). Once the trend has been established, I will then use YCL (2x Long JPY).

As for #6, the Nikkei has risen from around 16500 in 2020, to about 33,000 recently. I think that it's quite overbought and once the JPY strengthens, the Japanese Exporters could be hit. If I want to short the Japanese Equities, I will use the EWV (2x Inverse).

For #7, once US interest rates starts to drop, the USD would probably also depreciate at that time. I will probably look at UDN at that time but there's not much liquidity in that ETF now.

The above are some of my recent trading ideas. For them to be successful, I will need to time them properly. Not easy. At the same time, I need to also remind myself of exit routes if things do not go as planned, as there are many moving parts in the markets nowadays.

Finally, the following are some bearish and bullish comments this week;-

Bearish comments:-
1. Leon Cooperman: Stay cautious. I think we’re in a rolling correction and that it will take a long time for us to work out the problems.
2. Peter Schiff: This Is the most obvious financial crisis that nobody sees coming
3. Bill Gross: It’s time to stop betting against bonds and get ready for a economic slowdown. Recession in 4th quarter.
4. Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies: 4,180 is a key support level that needs to be preserved, to prevent further selling. (We have already breached it)


Bullish Comments:-
1. Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler: Stocks have room to rally 14% this year on various oversold technical indicators eg. S&P 500 breadth, Bank of America's Bull and Bear Indicator, VIX etc.
2. Jeff Clark: After last week’s ugly action, the conditions are in place for a sustainable rally into the end of the year.
3. Investor Place: Near-term gains and a stronger market in 2024 are lining up:-
a. In the near-term, we are in a strong seasonal time of year. October through December are typically the best months for the market.
b. Interest rates and Treasury yields have likely peaked.
c. Earnings are coming in strong so far and are projected to exceed expectations.
d. Earnings estimates for 2024 support continued market strength.

For next week, we have the FOMC Meeting on Oct 29-31. Yawn Yawn. No one is expecting rates to be increased and so what if they actually do increase rates by another 25 bps? The world will continue to spin...


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (36% from 33% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$85 from US$88 last week from US$88 two weeks agolast week;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; When will they be replenishing it?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2016 from US$1993 from US$1946
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$24 from US$23
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.64 from US$3.55 from US$3.57
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$73 from US$69 last week from US$70 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 34102 @ 5.02 PM on Oct 2, 2023 from 29813 last week from 26871 two weeks ago
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "24 Extreme Fear" from "26 Fear" last week from "29 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4117 from 4224 last week from 4328 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Sanofi (SNY)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17400 from 17172 last week from 17813 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Standard Chartered

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3018 from 2983 from 3088;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 30992 from 31259 from 32316;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1442 from 1444 from 1416:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold YTL


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 27 @ 4.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 150 from 150 from 150
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.49 from 3.47 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Higher; 0.64 from 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8194 from 7.8222 from 7.8250;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.77 from 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.37 from 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.30 from 7.29 from 7.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 106.42 from 106.10 from 106.45;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-

a. How low can it go?
b. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.85% from 4.62%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 5.02% from 5.06%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 88.76 from 87.96 from 89.18;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 72.45 from 71.78 from 72.75;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1662 from 2071 from 1935; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 5, 2023

Buy,Sell Hold.jpg

Hold, Sell or Buy ?

As expected, there was a rally in the markets. Some "experts" said that it was due to the "oversold" conditions. Others think that it was due to the "new money from the new month".

Now that we have had this rally, is it time to hold, sell or buy? Intuitively, I think that the markets would be a bit choppy until 2024. Therefore, one must need to have a very good reason to buy or hold nowadays.

"November being a seasonal strong month" or "potential window dressing activities" are not strong enough reasons to buy or hold anymore.

My trading strategy remains unchanged. I may buy extremely oversold (around 20%) brand names, for a quick profit (say 4%). Again, there's no hard & fast rule. I will have to look at the situation at that time and then decide whether I want to take that risk or not.

For this week, I hesitated on Li Ning and Yum China and both has rebounded. Instead, I bought Standard Chartered and China Merchants Bank but both did not go anywhere. Only Sanofi netted me some profits.

Anyway, the following are some bearish and bullish comments for your reference:--


Bearish Comments:-

1. Jeffery Gundlach:
a. Rates are going to fall due to a recession 1H 2024
b. Layoffs are coming. Financial and technology firms will not be spared

Stanley Druckenmiller:-
a. Betting on a bull market in short-term bonds due to growing risk of an economic meltdown
b. Betting against long-term bonds thanks to the US government’s endless need for revenues

3. Jamie Dimon:
a. The Feds could still hike rates by an additional 75 basis points
b. There's a chance that inflation is just a little stickier than people think

4. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley:
a. The S&P 500 is likely to end the year lower at 3900
b. Macro outlook is souring despite strong data
c. Some of the biggest stocks slip after disappointing earnings

4. Vanguard:
a. Valuations are too high
b. The risk premium in the stock market is too low.


Bullish Comments:-

1. Trade Smith:
a. Sell In May And Buy In November
b. Now’s one of the best times in a long while, to begin shopping for stocks.

2. Jeff Clark:
a. Buy Stocks Now. Bullish Percent Index for the S&P 500 is only 23
b. Don’t let fear keep your portfolio on the sidelines. The odds point to the makings of a rally beginning soon.

3. Raymond James:
Five five reasons to remained optimistic towards stocks:-
a. The end of the Fed's tightening cycle
b. Lower interest rates
c. Solid mega-cap tech earnings
d. Year-end seasonals
e. Bearish sentiment flashes contrarian signal


Finally, the US Treasury will be auctioning $112 billion in debt. This is to refund $102 billion of notes set to mature on Nov. 15. Thus, they would be raising around $10b in extra funds.
The auction changes are important to investors because they could provide a window into where yields are heading.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (33% from 36% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 18% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$81 from US$85 last week from US$88 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; When will they be replenishing it?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2000 from US$2016 from US$1993;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.67 from US$3.64 from US$3.55;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$74 from US$73 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 34671 from 34102 last week from 29813 two weeks ago @ 11.27 AM on Nov 3, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "42 Fear" from "24 Extreme Fear" last week from "26 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4358 from 4117 last week from 4224 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Sold Sanofi (SNY)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17400 from 17172 last week from 17813 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to Baidu
d. Traded China Merchants Bank
e. Sold Standard Chartered

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3018 from 2983 from 3088;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 30992 from 31259 from 32316;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1442 from 1444 from 1416:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 03 @ 11.18 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 152 from 150 from 150
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.48 from 3.49 from 3.47;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8247 from 7.8194 from 7.8222;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.74 from 4.78 from 4.77;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.36 from 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.29 from 7.30 from 7.29;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.93 from 106.42 from 106.10;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
b. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.06%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 90.22 from 88.76 from 87.96;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 73.69 from 72.45 from 71.78;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1385 from 1662 from 2071; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 12, 2023

GovernmentShutdown_sq.jpeg

US Government Shutdown (Nov 17)?

It looks like the "extreme" Republicans are digging in and we may well have a shutdown this time. The last shutdown (during Trump's time) lasted 35 days.

I'm not sure that the Senate can again pass another last-minute spending bill, like what they did on Oct 1, 2023, that allowed the US government to stay open for another 45 days (until Nov 17).

Anyway, I'm sure that the best and brightest minds are working on this issue and if they do shutdown for a month or two, it's still not the end of the world. (Just a lot of inconvenience for the citizens and the slowing US economy do not need this type of disruption).

Now how would a US government shutdown affect your investments?
1. If US interest rates rises then Bonds certainly would be hit.
2. The USD would also be stronger thus affecting Commodities too.
3. Equities would probably not be spared even-though they are anticipating a short shutdown

As mentioned two weeks ago, I was looking at the following trading ideas;-
1. Shorting Nasdaq thru PSQ and SQQQ
2. Buying Long Term US Bonds thru TLT
3. Adding China Big Techs thru 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
4. Adding HK & China Blue Chips
5. Buying Japanese Yen thru FCY and YCL
6. Shorting Japanese Equities thru EWV
7. Shorting USD Index thru UDN or hedging with FEZ

In view of this US government shutdown on Nov 17th, I have only pursued #3 and #4 only. In addition, I have also bought XLE (Energy Select ETF) since Oil has weakened.

For this week, the following are the bearish and Bullish comments:-

Bearish Comments:-

1. Mark Spitznagel, Universa Investments:-
a. Stock market is likely to surge then turn drastically, when the Feds starts cutting interest rates

2. Doug Kass:-
a. Risk to technology stocks from an economic reckoning, could mean that the "Magnificent Seven" are about to fall.

3. David Rosenberg:-
a. Current stock market rally has been rather junky
b. 30-year US Treasury bonds should outperform the stock market as the Fed tightening cycle nears its end.

Bullish Comments:-

1. Trade Smith:-
The CME FedWatch tool shows investors expect the first rate cut to come in May. That’s followed by the forecasts of another cut in July, one in September and one more in December:
Falling interest rates is good news for the Financial sector:-
a. More deal flow
b. Yield curve steepening
c. Private equity (PE) resurgence
d. Mortgage underwriting

2. Zweig Breadth Thrust: Buy signal triggered on Nov 3.

3. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley: This is a bear market rally

As mentioned last week, the Treasury will be auctioning $112 billion in debt on Nov15. The auction changes are important to investors because they could provide a window into where yields are heading.

And of course we have the US Government Shutdown on Nov 17 if they cant resolve the issue.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- No Change; (36% from 36% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market

b. HK: 68% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$81 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Relenishing in 1Q 2024?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1953 from US$2000 from US$2016;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$22 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.60 from US$3.67 from US$3.64;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$74 from US$74 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 37350 from 34671 last week from 34102 two weeks ago @ 6.37 AM on Nov 11, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "42 Fear" from "42 Fear" last week from "24 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4415 from 4358 last week from 4117 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17203 from 17400 last week from 17172 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Galaxy
d. Bought Ping An
e. Traded Baidu
f. Traded 3033 (HS Tech ETF)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3039 from 3018 from 2983;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32568 from 30992 from 31259;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1445 from 1442 from 1444:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold Boustead Plantations

Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Nov 11 @ 7.05 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 151 from 152 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting interest rates to rise in Japan
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.45 from 3.48 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Money Laundering Scandal will probably lead to less demand for SGD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Higher; 1.07 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Fatigue; US Support may weakened due to focus on Israel now
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8107 from 7.8247 from 7.8194;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.70 from 4.74 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
d. Money Laundering Scandal will probably lead to less demand for SGD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.26 from 7.29 from 7.30;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.69 from 105.93 from 106.42;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
b. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.65% from 4.62%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.07% from 5.06%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 90.71 from 90.22 from 88.76;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.06 from 73.69 from 72.45;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1598 from 1385 from 1662; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 19, 2023

Big picture.jpg

The Big Picture (Update)

As we are nearing the end of US Earnings Season, it's time to check on the "Big Picture" again.

1. Interest Rates:-

Things are rapidly slowing down in the US and I dont think the US economy can take another 100 bps increase in interest rates. In addition, the US government also cannot afford to raise interest rates by too much as they already have a huge debt to service.

BTW, UBS mentioned recently that they expect the Feds to cut interest rates next year by 275 bps. I'm waiting to buy TLT.

2. Inflation:- It should slowly decrease as "Consumer Demand" is already dropping. Hopefully, the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here.

3. USD:- The USD may continue to be strong due to the high interest rates in the US. Once, there's a feeling that they may start to reduce US interest rates, it should slowly weaken from there. It looks like this would only occur around 2Q 2024 now. I may buy some Yen at that time thru FCY and YCL.

4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in Global Demand. Till date, the demand from China has been quite sluggish. I'm now watching Copper and I have already owned some Gold and Oil.

5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China and Japan is continuing to add to the world's Liquidity. High Liquidity is always good for the stock-markets.

6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting only a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.

7. Ukraine War:- With the Israel Conflict and the US Debt Ceiling discussions, they may force Ukraine to accept a truce.

8. Market Sentiment:-
a. US: The "Magnificent Seven" is still very strong and the VIX is quite low. However, the low VIX could be a "warning sign" and it's better to be careful with the "Magnificent Seven".
b. China and HK: Quite "Oversold" and I have been adding to my positions.
c. Japan; Some money may also flow from Japan to HK & China. I may short Japan thru the EWV when the opportunity arises.

9. US Earnings:- Forward guidance has been weak and some "experts" are saying that it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets. When that happens, I may buy some PSQ and SQQQ to short the Nasdaq.

10. Trading Tactic:- I continue to buy on any steep drop and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement. In the meantime, I need to watch my "Cash Level" as I need to survive till 2Q 2024.

Finally, as the markets have been quite strong, I have not seen much bearish comments lately. The "bears" are too embarrassed to show their faces as they have been so wrong for so long. However, this could also be a "contrarian indicator" so it's always good to be nimble and not to be too complacent.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (41% from 36% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 57% (22 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. KWEB, 3033, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$76 from US$77 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1983 from US$1953 from US$2000;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$22 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.73 from US$3.60 from US$3.67;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$74 from US$74 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 36662 from 37350 last week from 34671 two weeks ago @ 8.03 AM on Nov 18, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "58 Greed" from "42 Fear" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4514 from 4415 last week from 4358 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 18; Forward PE 17; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)
h. Bought Alibaba (USD)
i. Traded SEA

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17454 from 17203 from 17400;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to Alibaba
d. Traded Baidu
e. Traded 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
f. Traded JD
g. Sold Galaxy
h. Sold Ping An

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3054 from 3039 from 3018;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33585 from 32568 from 30992;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1461 from 1445 from 1442:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 18 @ 8.21 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 150 from 151 last week from 152 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.48 from 3.45 from 3.48;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Higher; 1.09 from 1.07 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7962 from 7.8107 from 7.8247;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.67 from 4.70 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.21 from 7.26 from 7.29;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.69 from 105.69 from 105.93;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.44% from 4.65% from 4.62%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.89% from 5.07% from 5.06%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.53 from 90.71 from 90.22;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.77 from 74.06 from 73.69;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1758 from 1598 from 1385; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 25, 2023

overbought.png

Overbought Markets?

The CNN "Greed & Fear: Index is now touching 68 (Greed) from 42 (Fear), just two weeks ago.

What has really changed in that 2-3 weeks? Has things really gotten that much better in that 2-3 weeks?

Therefore, I think that the markets are a now bit "overbought" and I will not hesitate to take any small profits, say 3%.

I will even sell a losing position if it runs up a lot, say 7%, with the hope of buying it back later at a lower price, say 4% cheaper. ((My timing could be wrong and the counter could continue to rise but it's a risk that I'm willing to take, in this type of choppy market).

As mentioned last week, since the market has been quite strong over the past 2 weeks, all the bears dare not show their face for the time being. So we have been seeing only bullish comments including the following:-

1. RBC: The S&P 500 will rally to a record high next year, helped by positive sentiment and resilient valuations,

2. Bank of America: S&P 500 closing 2023 about 10% higher, as companies have adapted to higher rates and weathered macroeconomic jolts.

3. Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale: Index flirting with a record high.

4. Morgan Stanley: Turned more constructive for the next year.

I think that the next catalyst for the markets would be the "Year End Window Dressing" activities. This will probably happen in about 2-3 weeks time.

Therefore, I think that the markets would be quite directionless with a downside bias, over the next 2-3 weeks, except for the spike from the new money from the new month at the beginning of December.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (36% from 41% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 60% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$75 from US$76 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2004 from US$1983 from US$1953;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.79 from US$3.73 from US$3.60;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$80 from US$74 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 37395 from 36662 last week from 37350 two weeks ago @ 10.15 AM on Nov 24, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "68 Greed" from "58 Greed" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4559 from 4514 last week from 4415 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 18; Forward PE 17; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Sold KWEB (China Internet ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17559 from 17454 from 17203;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
d. Bought Xiaomi
e. Sold 1/2 Baidu
f. Sold 1/2 JD
g. Sold ASM Pacific

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3041 from 3054 from 3039;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33626 from 33585 from 32568;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1454 from 1461 from 1445:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 24 @ 9.50 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 150 from 150 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.49 from 3.48 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7991 from 7.7962 from 7.8107;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.68 from 4.67 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.13 from 7.21 from 7.26;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Flat; 103.68 from 103.69 from 105.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.47% from 4.44% from 4.65%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.96% from 4.89% from 5.07%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.95 from 91.53 from 90.71;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.08 from 74.77 from 74.06;

Baltic Dry Index - Flat; 1755 from 1758 from 1598; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 03, 2023

December.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It's a new month again so there should be a spike in the markets, unless the Fund Managers have already spent the money in advance, over the past few days.

Thereafter, I'm expecting a lull in the markets until "Window Dressing" time.

There's also some "Tax-Loss Selling" for the counters that have not been doing well.

The above applies more to the US markets.

As for HK & China, I still believed that they are quite "oversold" and I will not hesitate to buy whenever there's a sharp dip, for a quick trade. It cant seemed to move from a "Trading Market" to a "Buy & Hold" market.

Anyway, I dont think the markets would be going anywhere till Dec 13 (FOMC Meeting). I'm also not expecting Powell to increase interest rates and in the event that he does, it's still not the end of the world.

For this week, the following are some of the bearish comments:-

1. JPMorgan:-
a. S&P 500 will fall next year amid 'challenging macro backdrop'
b. Equities are now richly valued with volatility near the historical low, while geopolitical and political risks remain elevated

2. Nouriel Roubini:-
a. The market 'bloodbath is likely to continue'
b. Investors set to lose tens of trillions over next decade

3. Gary Shilling:-
a. Expects a 30% crash in stocks, a recession and a commercial real estate collapse.
b. Has been very wrong for years with his dire predictions


And the following are the bullish comment:-

1. Tom Lee: Stocks Have Positive Tailwinds Heading Into Year-End

2. Daily Wealth: As long as unemployment stays low, there's only a low probability of a crash


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (42% from 36% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74 from US$75 last week from US$76 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2073 from US$2004 from US$1983;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$25 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.92 from US$3.79 from US$3.73;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$81 from US$80 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 38502 from 37395 last week from 36662 two weeks ago @ 8.40 PM on Dec 01, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "67 Greed" from "68 Greed" last week from "58 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16830 from 17559 from 17454;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
d. Bought China Overseas Land
e. Added to Baidu
f. Added to Meituan
g. Added to Vitasoy
h. Traded L'Occitane
i. Traded Galaxy

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3032 from 3041 from 3054;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33432 from 33626 from 33585;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1456 from 1454 from 1461:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Capital A


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 01 @ 8.25 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 148 from 150 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=1

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.50 from 3.49 from 3.48;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8136 from 7.7991 from 7.7962;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.67 from 4.68 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.11 from 7.13 from 7.21;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.31 from 103.68 from 103.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.21% from 4.47% from 4.44%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.96% from 4.89% from 5.07%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.67 from 91.95 from 91.53;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.70 from 75.08 from 74.77;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2937 from 1755 from 1758; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 10, 2023

santa Rally.jpg

Early Santa Rally?

The US markets have had a very strong November and people are starting to wonder whether that November rally can continue into the traditional "Year End Window Dressing" and "Santa Rally".

As mentioned, I think that there could be a lull in the markets until Dec 13 (FOMC Meeting). Thereafter, I think that the markets can continue to grind higher during "Window Dressing Season", until early Jan 2024.

BTW, I have been slowly increasing my exposure to Equities over the past two weeks, especially in HK, where I think that they are quite oversold.

I'm also waiting for the retracement in the Bond ETFs to initiate some positions. I will not chase Bonds at this level. I have avoided bonds for three decades and I'm starting to think that it's a good bet from here, for a few years.

For this week, the following are some of the bearish comments:-
1. Investor Place: Signs of stress in the markets and the economy
a. U.S. corporate bankruptcy filings hit a 12-year high this year.
b. The number of corporations defaulting on their debt is accelerating.
c. High interest rates and elevated inflation still worry millions of Americans and business leaders.
d. 84% of CEOs thinks that a recession will happen in the next 12 months
e. 50% of Wall Street thinks a recession is inevitable
f. 69% of American consumers are predicting a recession in 2024
g. Israel - Gaza conflict
h. Ukraine - Russian war

2. JPM:-
a. The S&P 500 is likely to tumble 23% to 3,500 points by mid-2024
b. Views a US recession as very likely
c. Cash and Treasury bonds are safer bets than stocks today.

3. Invesco:-
a. Expects US to cut rates from end of 1H24
b. Geopolitical Risks still relatively high

4. Jim Bianco:-
a. Cutting rates now would risk juicing the economy, potentially resulting in a new flare up of inflation, risking a repeat of the 1970s.


And the following are some of the bullish comments this week:-

1. Investor Place: The data are increasingly supportive of a best-case outcome
a. Inflation is falling
b. The U.S. consumer is hanging in there
c. Wage inflation is easing
d. The labor market is normalizing

2. Citi:-
a. We’re projecting no recession, rather a slowing of the economy
b. There would be a reacceleration in the second half of 2024 into 2025

3. HSBC:-
a. Expects the Feds to start cutting rates in 3Q24
b. Improved outlook for Stock & Bond Markets

4. Bill Ackman:-
a. The Fed will pivot to cuts in 2024 and it needs to be done ASAP


Next week, the following are some of the important events:-
1. Dec 13: FOMC Meeting
2. Dec 15: China Central Economic Work Conference


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (48% from 42% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 61% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74 from US$75 last week from US$76 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2021 from US$2073 from US$2004;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$25 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.83 from US$3.92 from US$3.79;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$81 from US$81 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 43446 from 38502 last week from 37395 two weeks ago @ 2.34 PM on Dec 08, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "68 Greed" from "67 Greed" last week from "68 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4600, 4725, 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16830 from 17559 from 17454;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought HKEX
d. Added to AIA
e. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
f. Added to JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3032 from 3041 from 3054;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33432 from 33626 from 33585;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1456 from 1454 from 1461:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Malaysian Airport


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 08 @ 2.15 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 1.44 from 148 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.49 from 3.50 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8104 from 7.8136 from 7.7991;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.67 from 4.67 from 4.68;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.14 from 7.11 from 7.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.63 from 103.31 from 103.68;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.23% from 4.21% from 4.47%%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.72% from 4.96% from 4.89%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.95 from 92.67 from 91.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.99 from 75.70 from 75.08;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2494 from 2937 from 1755; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 17, 2023

Window.jpg

Window Dressing Season?

We are now in the middle of December and we are probably in the "Year End Window Dressing" season.

During this time, the Fund Managers would normally be buying additional shares in the companies that are doing well in their portfolio. This is to boost their portfolio return before the Dec 31st numbers are published.

For counters that are not doing well in their portfolio, the Fund Managers would normally sell some of them. The Fund Managers may buy back some of those counters in early January, depending on the situation at that time.

There's also "Tax Loss Selling" at this time. To pay lower 'capital gains tax", some investors may realize some capital losses, to offset it against those stocks with realized gains. Therefore, stocks that are doing well for the year would probably continue to rise and vice-versa.

In view of the above, I may not be taking profits on some of my stocks and may ride them till the last week of December. It depends on their daily appreciation as well as their valuation.

For this week, I have sold some of my HK shares for small profits, in view of the strong rally. I had to replenish some of my HK$ Cash as I have virtually used up all my HK$ Cash in the previous week (when HK was plunging at that time).

Finally, the following are some comments on the market for this week:-

1. Jeremy Grantham: Stocks are in a bubble and could plunge by over 50%

2. Ed Yardeni: The S&P 500 will surge to 6,000 in 2025 in a ‘Roaring 2020s’ scenario

3. Bill Ackman: The Fed will pivot to cuts in 2024 and it needs to be done ASAP

For next week, if the markets continue to rally strongly, I may continue to take some more small profits and to raise some Cash level.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (45% from 48% last week from 42% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 59% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$72 from US$74 last week from US$75 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2034 from US$2021 from US$2073;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$23 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.88 from US$3.83 from US$3.92;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$82 from US$81 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Monitoring URA, SRUUF and URNM

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 41988 from 43446 last week from 38502 two weeks ago @ 6.30 AM on Dec 16, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Was the price increase due to the higher cybersecurity incidences?
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "67 Greed" from "68 Greed" last week from "67 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16792 from 16830 from 17559;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Sold Xiaomi
d. Sold 1/2 AIA
e. Sold 1/2 JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2943 from 3032 from 3041;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 32971 from 33432 from 33626;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1462 from 1456 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Traded Eco World Warrants


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 16 @ 10.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 1.42 from 1.44 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.50 from 3.49 from 3.50;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8057 from 7.8104 from 7.8136;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.67 from 4.67 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.33 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.12 from 7.14 from 7.11;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 102.22 from 103.63 from 103.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.92% from 4.23% from 4.21%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.45% from 4.72% from 4.96%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.66 from 92.95 from 92.67;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.95 from 75.99 from 75.70 ;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2348 from 2494 from 2937; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 25, 2023

XMAS.jpeg

Merry X'mas & Happy Holidays!

It's Xmas so it's timely to review what the "Santa Rally" is:-
The Santa Rally is defined as the rally that goes on for the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year.

Some of the reasons given for the Santa Rally include:-
1. Slow down in tax-loss harvesting
2. General feeling of optimism and seasonal happiness
3. Retail investors investing their holiday bonuses
4. Window Dressing activities
5. Buying in anticipation of the "January Effect"
etc.

Anyway, the US markets have been fairly strong for the past week while HK has been quite weak again.

Therefore, I have again increased my exposure to HK as well as the "US Listed China Counters".

I still feel very strongly that the HK is quite oversold so I'm forcing myself to increase my exposure there, even-though the self-inflicted issues are continuing.

I think that if I take a 2-3 years time frame, it should be ok to buy the "oversold" HK market.

In the meantime, some of the "cheap" counters are getting "cheaper" and I'm averaging down again.

A "pure" trader would never average down. Instead, he would quickly cut his losses after 2 or 3 days and never have a losing position over the weekend.

However, I'm not really a "pure trader" so I'm averaging down when I see a "fundamentally sound" counter being quite oversold.

At the same time, I need to be mindful of my "Cash Level'. I'm starting to use up some of my Cash.

However, I did intentionally kept a higher level of Cash in the first place, for the opportunity to buy when things are "oversold", like in HK right now.

Finally, for next few days, I think that the markets can be a bit strong as there could be some last minute "window dressing" activity, as well as the mentioned "Santa Rally".


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (53% from 45% last week from 48% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. KWEB, 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$73 from US$72 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2065 from US$2034 from US$2021;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.90 from US$3.88 from US$3.83;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$86 from US$82 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 45653 from 41988 last week from 43446 two weeks ago @ 8.13 PM on Dec 23, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "77 Extreme Greed" from "67 Greed" last week from "68 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Nike
h. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16340 from 16792 from 16830;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added To Tencent
d. Added to Sensetime
e. Bought Netease

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2915 from 2943 from 3032;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33169 from 32971 from 33432;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1454 from 1462 from 1456:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Hume Cement Indutries


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 23 @ 4.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 142 from 142 last week from 144 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.52 from 3.50 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Higher; 0.68 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.10 from 1.09 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8129 from 7.8057 from 7.8104;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.66 from 4.67 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.32 from 1.33 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.13 from 7.12 from 7.14;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.36 from 102.22 from 103.63;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.90% from 3.92% from 4.23%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.33% from 4.45% from 4.72%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.84 from 94.66 from 92.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.47 from 76.95 from 75.99;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2094 from 2348 from 2494; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 1, 2024

2024.jpg

New Money & January Effect

Happy 2024!

It's a new month and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets early in the week unless the fund managers have already spent their Cash in advance last week, especially in HK & China where the markets rallied strongly.

We supposedly also have the continuation of the "Santa Rally" for the first two trading days of 2024.

In addition, the "January Effect" will supposedly be coming into play too, until about mid-January. This is where smaller cap stocks are expected to rise because they have already been harvested for tax-losses, general feeling of optimism, investments of bonuses etc.

The above applies more to the US markets but the direction of the US markets does affect the rest of the world.

From mid-January to end-January, the US markets could be in a tight range until we have the FOMC Meeting on Jan 31st.

At this point in time, everyone is expecting the Feds to be dovish and US Interest Rates to start dropping in the next few months.

In addition, this is an election year and the Biden Administration would surely like to see more Liquidity in the markets.

I still think that HK & China is oversold and any sharp dip should be bought eg. last week's collapse due to the draft computer games regulation where Netease dropped about 25%, Tencent dropped 12% etc.

In addition, some of the CNY bonuses would also be finding it's way into the Asian stock-markets.

My trading strategy remains the same:-
1. Do not chase the "Magnificent Seven" in the US
2. Buy the sharp dips especially in HK & China and sell on the rebound
3. Wait for the pullback in bonds to initiate positions
4. Watch the Commodities especially Copper
5. Increase equities exposure to EAFE
6. Wait for the pullback in the US Small & Mid Caps

Finally, I should also remind myself that there's currently two major wars, the US Economy is slowing rapidly, China and Europe is still in the doldrums, Interest Rates and Inflation are still elevated etc.

Therefore, there's no need to chase things and I must wait for the set-up to emerge first before betting heavily. In the meantime, interest rates are fairly high and there's no real need to take unnecessary risks.

May you have a fantastic trading year ahead!


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (46% from 53% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$71 from US$73 last week from US$72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2072 from US$2065 from US$2034;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.89 from US$3.90 from US$3.88;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$91 from US$86 last week from US$82 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 42029 from 45653 last week from 41988 two weeks ago @ 7.51 AM on Dec 30, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "76 Extreme Greed" from "77 Extreme Greed" last week from "67 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4770 from 4595 last week from 4559 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Sold KWEB (China Internet ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17047 from 16340 from 16792;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Sold 2/3 Tencent
d. Sold Netease
e. Sold HKEX

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2975 from 2915 from 2943;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33464 from 33169 from 32971;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1455 from 1454 from 1462:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade

Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 29 @ 3.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 141 from 142 last week from 142 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.48 from 3.52 from 3.50;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.68 from 0.68 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.11 from 1.10 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8139 from 7.8129 from 7.8057;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.59 from 4.66 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.32 from 1.32 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.09 from 7.13 from 7.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 100.87 from 101.36 from 102.22;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.87% from 3.90% from 3.92%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.25% from 4.33% from 4.45%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.84 from 94.66 from 92.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.68 from 77.47 from 76.95;

Baltic Dry Index - Flat; 2094 from 2094 from 2348; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.