Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ July 30, 2023

August.jpeg

New Money From The New Month
It's a new month again so new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should see a spike in the markets next week if the fund managers have not already spent their cash in advance.

Thereafter, I think that that the markets would continue to grind higher due to the US earnings season. However, on Friday, August 04, we will have the US Jobs Report. Unless the numbers are very bad, it's probably a non-event.
For this week, the following are some bearish articles:-
1. John Hussman: The S&P 500 could plummet 64%, bursting a historic bubble
2. Doubleline; Deep Recession to Force Full Percentage-Point Fed Cut
3. Bill Gross: Stocks will drop as US and China slowdowns overshadow AI hype
4. JPM: Euphoric markets are being fueled mostly by hype around AI tech and excitement around slowing inflation.
5. Citi: Too Many Bulls Put US Stock Rally At Risk
6. Chris Kimble: Dumb Money Indicators Hit Extreme Levels: Frothy Signs for Tech?

And the following are some bullish articles :-
1. Tom Lee: A U.S. recession or stock market crash is unlikely over the next two years
2. Mike Wilson, CIO Morgan Stanley: I ‘was wrong’ about a plunge in U.S. stocks as the S&P 500 is close to erasing 2022’s decline

As for the HK market, I can feel that it is getting stronger. I have been taking profits on the China tech. And because I want to continue trading them, I have to buy them back at a higher price. This has happened to me twice already. So maybe it's time to hold than to trade them.

BTW, I noticed that the China Techs were quite strong in the US on Friday again. So if they do gap up on Monday, I have to decide on whether to take profits or not.

I guess it will depends on how big is the gap upwards and whether I feel that the rally has legs.
I have been taught to always take windfall profits. But how do you define windfall profit for the HK market?

Isnt a 7% rise in the stock price on no news, considered a windfall? (There has been so many times that I didnt take a 3% to 4% profits in HK, to see it being lost the same day).


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (29% from 29% last week from 27% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 9% (3 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 32% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$81 from US$77 last week from US$75 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi to cut another 1m bpd
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1959 from US$1964 from US$1959;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$24 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.93 from US$3.82 from US$3.92;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$56 from US$56 from US$55;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 29323 from 29907 last week from 31335 two weeks @ 7.34 AM on Jul 29, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "78 Extreme Greed" from "82 Extreme Greed" last week from "80 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4505 from 4399 last week from 4450 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4512; 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19917 from 19075 from 19413;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18000; 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought AIA
d. Traded Baidu
e. Traded ASM Pacific
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Traded CG Services
h. Sold Geely

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3276 from 3168 from 3237;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32759 from 32304 from 32420
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1450 from 1414 from 1412:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Jul 28 @ 9.13 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 140 from 140 last week from 138 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.42 from 3.43 from 3.42;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.67 from 0.68 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.10 from 1.11 from 1.12;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7979 from 7.8158 from 7.8175;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.55 from 4.55 from 4.52;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.33 from 1.33 from 1.32;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.16 from 7.17 from 7.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 101.49 from 100.48 from 99.52;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.96% from 3.85% from 3.79%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.89% from 4.83% from 4.66%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.92 from 92.26 from 92.79;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.89 from 75.18 from 75.65;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1097 from 977 from 1103; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 06, 2023

waiting-time1.png

Waiting, Waiting and Waiting ..

If you have been reading my investment blogs, you would know that one of my investment objectives, is to survive till the time that they start reducing interest rates in the US, estimated to be in 2H 2023.

Now that we are in August 2024, I think that interest rates could stay elevated for a few more quarters (possibly till 1H 2024) before they start dropping, depending on the catalyst that would eventually cause that drop in interest rates.

Therefore, I may need to extend my cautious stance by another few more months until that catalyst emerge eg. collapse of a major financial institution.

However, That does not mean that I would stop trading the markets. It's just that I would need to keep a higher amount of dry powder and also must force myself to take small profits whenever they appear. "Cautiously Bullish" was the word that I have been using to remind myself of the situation.

Anyway, it's now a waiting game. Waiting for US interest rates to drop. Waiting for the catalyst that could cause US interest rates to drop. Waiting for China to do something concrete to improve business conditions. Waiting for the 6 State Elections in Malaysia. Waiting, waiting and waiting..

For this week, the following are some interesting investing articles:-

1. Tom Lee: DeMark Analytics' "13" sell signal just flashed

2. Yahoo Finace: The Buffett Indicator has surged to 171% as investors bet on AI, rate cuts, and a soft landing. Buffett suggested in a Fortune article in 2001, that stocks would be fairly valued at a 100% reading and buying them at the 70% or 80% level would probably work out nicely. However, he warned it would be "playing with fire" to purchase them around the 200% mark.

3. Doug Kass: I remained short and wrong


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (27% from 29% last week from 29% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 56% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 10% (3 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 35% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$83 from US$81 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extend 1m cut till Sep 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1978 from US$1959 from US$1964;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.85 from US$3.93 from US$3.82;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$56 from US$56 from US$56;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 28934 from 29323 last week from 29907 two weeks @ 6.50 AM on Aug 5, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "69 Greed" from "78 Extreme Greed" last wee from "82 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4478 from 4505 last week from 4399 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4400; 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4512; 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19539 from 19917 from 19075;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18000; 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought CKH
d. Traded Baidu
e. Traded Alibaba
f. Traded Tencent
g. Traded Meituan
h. Traded China Mengniu
i. Traded AIA;
j. Sold 1/3 Vitasoy
k. Sold 1/2 ASM Pacific
l. Sold Country Garden Services

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3288 from 3276 from 3168;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 32193 from 32759 from 32304
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1445 from 1450 from 1414:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 05 @ 7.31 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 142 from 140 last week from 140 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.40 from 3.42 from 3.43;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.10 from 1.10 from 1.11;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8122 from 7.7979 from 7.8158;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.55 from 4.55 from 4.55;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.33 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.17 from 7.16 from 7.17;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 101.83 from 101.49 last week from 100.48 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.04% from 3.96% from 3.85%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.77% from 4.89% from 4.83%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.56 from 91.92 from 92.26;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.65 from 74.89 from 75.18;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1128 from 1097 from 977; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 13, 2023

August Doldrums.jpg

August Doldrums?

The markets have not been going anywhere for another week. It's as if everyone is away on summer vacation.

At least the markets have not crashed as predicted by so many "experts" since last year.

What's the point of watching the market so closely when the market is so slow and you cant find any good set-ups?

You might as well go on vacation too or use the down time to do other boring but necessary stuff eg. servicing the cars or going for that dreaded blood-test.

Personally, I had only two trades this week and on the same counter too, Techtronic in HK, when it crashed close to 20% on poor results.

Anyway, for this week, the following are some of the investment comments:-

1. Tom Lee: Stocks could rise due to cooler inflation from lower auto and shelter costs

2. Bruce Kamlich, TA Expert: We are nearly four months on and the technical signals are weakening and potential storm clouds are rolling in:-
a. Higher Treasury bond yields
b. The consumer discretionary chart suggests a pullback
c. Technology is now testing the rising 50-day moving average line

3. Mark Spitznagel, Universa Investments: Stocks and debt levels are too high and will end in disaster.

4. Yahoo Finance - 3 Reasons why the stock rally may halt:-
a. Rising earnings estimates for the S&P 500 companies is a phenomenon that has largely played out this year.
b. Investors may be too optimistic about the outlook for the US economy in 2024 leading to a strong reacceleration in earnings growth.
c. The looming presidential election in 2024 is a "source of uncertainty" for the stock market.

For next week, some people may be busy analyzing the results of the State Elections in Malaysia.
As for myself, I think that it's probably a non-event. Now that the State Elections are over, maybe some money may be returning to Malaysia.

On the international front, I dont see much happening until August 24-26, the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, Even then, i also think that this is a non-event too.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (26% from 27% last week from 29% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 60% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 10% (3 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 30% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed;

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$83 from US$83 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extend 1m cut till Sep 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1945 from US$1978 from US$1959;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.72 from US$3.85 from US$3.93;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$57 from US$56 last week from US$56 two week ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 29400 from 28934 last week from 29323 two weeks ago @ 2.27 PM on Aug 11, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "66 Greed" from "69 Greed" last week from "78 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4478 from 4505 last week from 4399 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4400; 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4512; 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19092 from 19539 from 19917;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18000; 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Traded Techtronics

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3189 from 3288 from 3276;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32474 from 32193 from 32759
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1457 from 1445 from 1450:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold DRB-Hicom


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 11 @ 2.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 145 from 142 last week from 140 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.40 from 3.40 from 3.42;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.10 from 1.10 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8162 from 7.8122 from 7.7979;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.58 from 4.55 from 4.55;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.21 from 7.17 from 7.16;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 102.33 from 101.83 last week from 101.49 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.16% from 4.04% from 3.96%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.89% from 4.77% from 4.89%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.88 from 91.56 from 91.92;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.94 from 74.65 from 74.89;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1137 from 1128 from 1097; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 20, 2023

Water Torture.jpg

Water Torture Again?

It's another weak of declining markets. It's as if you are experiencing a water torture again.

It's dripping drop by drop onto your forehead and after a few hours, that drop of water feels like a rock.

If the decline in the markets was a lot in a short time, say 7% a day, I'm sure that the buyers would return. But because the decline was only 3% per day or so, everybody is waiting and waiting.

Anyway, the following are "5 Factors Affecting the Market" according to Investor Place:-
1. China’s Economic Woes
2. U.S. Inflation Cools
3. Closely Watched Treasury Auctions
4. Energy Prices Meander Higher
5. Better-than-Expected 2Q Results

If the markets can focus on points 2 and point 5, then the markets could stabilize and head higher.

But because the markets were focusing on points 1, 3 & 4, sentiments became quite weak.

As for points 1, I think that we are probably quite close to the bottom for the HK and China markets. They have already said that they would be supporting the markets and it's a matter of time that they will deploy the big bazookas.

The traders somehow think that they dont have any big bazooka left and were even shorting the market. I dont think it's wise to be shorting the HK and China markets now.

As for the US markets, I think that there could be some profit-taking on the Magnificent Seven. Therefore, it may not be time to buy the Magnificent Seven yet. As for the rest of the US market, stock-picking would be essential as you may be going against the "Market Direction".

For this week, the following were some of the investment articles:-
1. Kevin O'Leary: Michael Burry's bet against the S&P 500 is going to be painful, even if he's right eventually
2. Bill Gross; Bearish On Both Bonds And Stocks, Sees Inflation Stabilizing At 3% 3. Doug Kass: I remain negative on stocks and am raising the probability that we have already seen a top in the S&P 500
4. David Rosenberg: The S&P 500 is massively overvalued and likely to plunge like it did last year

For next week, everyone would be watching the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium. Everyone is waiting to hear Powell says that interest rates are peaking as well as QT is ending. As for myself, I think that it's a non-event as both events are within expectations.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (31% from 26% last week from 27% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 53% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 22% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$81 from US$83 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m cut till Sep 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1918 from US$1945 from US$1978;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.72 from US$3.72 from US$3.85;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$57 from US$57 last week from US$56 two week ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 26650 from 29400 last week from 28934 two weeks ago @ 7.48 AM on Aug 18, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "45 Neutral" from "66 Greed" last week from "69 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4478 from 4505 last week from 4399 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4512; 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. Bought SEA (SE)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17948 from 19092 from 19539;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Ping An

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3132 from 3189 from 3288;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 31451 from 32474 from 32193;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1457 from 1445 from 1450:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 18 @ 2.12 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 145 from 145 last week from 142 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.42 from 3.40 from 3.40;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.64 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.09 from 1.10 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8279 from 7.8162 from 7.8122;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.64 from 4.58 from 4.55;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.28 from 7.21 from 7.17;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.22 from 102.33 last week from 101.83 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.25% from 4.16% from 4.04%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.94% from 4.89% from 4.77%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 90.80 from 91.88 from 91.56;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.04 from 74.94 from 74.65;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1247 from 1137 from 1128; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 27, 2023

Sept.jpg

New Money From The New Month

As expected, the markets didnt go anywhere this past week.

Everyone was waiting for Powell to speak even-though everyone was expecting him to be also vague.

Anyway, he didnt say anything unexpected or useful but that is good enough for the markets. Therefore, the markets should behave quite ok next week.

In addition, the "new money from the new month" would be flowing into the markets late next week and probably, early the week thereafter.

Anyway, the bears are getting quite frustrated and some of them are starting to use words like "stupid", "complacent" and "delusional". Example:-

1. David Roche: Global stock markets have had a strong year-to-date run in spite of economic uncertainties "because people are stupid" and "too complacent"

2. Amanda Agati: Stock investors are "delusional" if they expect a "no landing" scenario


As for myself, I have mentioned that my investment objective is to survive the next few months until interest rates starts to decrease, most probably in 2Q 2024.

Therefore, I would continue to keep a higher level of Cash, in case the markets do tank over the next few months.

However, that does not mean that I wont be buying any oversold counter in the meantime. It just means that I will be a bit more careful when trading and will also not chase after marginal set-ups.

My goal now is not to look for 3% short-term profits anymore. Instead, I will only buy very oversold counters and keep them for the medium term.

Over the next few weeks, there's nothing such on the horizon. The next big events are:-
1. FOMC Meeting: Sep 19th & 20th
2. 3Q Window Dressing: Sep 31st


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (33% from 31% last week from 26% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 53% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 23% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 22% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$80 from US$81 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m cut till Sep 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1943 from US$1918 from US$1945;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.77 from US$3.72 from US$3.72;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$58 from US$57 last week from US$57 two week ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 26094 from 26650 last week from 29400 two weeks ago @ 5.20 PM on Aug 25, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "48 Neutral" from "45 Neutral" last week from "66 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4406 from 4478 last week from 4505 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4512; 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17956 from 17948 from 19092;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought ENN Energy

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3064 from 3132 from 3189;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 31624 from 31451 from 32474;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1444 from 1457 from 1445:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Malayan Cement
c. Bought MYEG
d. Traded Farm Fresh
e. Sold 1/2 Hap Seng


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 25 @ 5.05 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 146 from 145 last week from 145 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.42 from 3.42 from 3.40;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8445 from 7.8279 from 7.8162;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.64 from 4.64 from 4.58;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.29 from 7.28 from 7.21;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.08 from 103.22 last week from 102.33 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.23% from 4.25% from 4.16%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.08% from 4.94% from 4.89%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.13 from 90.80 from 91.88;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.30 from 74.04 from 74.94;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1110 from 1247 from 1137; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 27, 2023

September Effect.jpg

September Effect?

We are now in September and it's supposedly a traditional weak period for the markets.

In fact, they have named it the "September Effect", which refers to the historically weak stock market returns, observed during the month of September.

On average, September has been the worst performing month, going back nearly a century.

The above phenomenon may be due to:-
1. Earnings season being over
2. A lot of traders are away around this time and
3. 3Q Window Dressing has not arrived yet

With the weaker sentiments, the bears are slowly reappearing:-

1. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Tudor Investments:-
a. Stocks could slump within the next few months
b. Risks include AI disappointment, slower growth, and banking problems
c. Inflation, a government shutdown, and a private-market shakeout, could also cause problems

2. Axios:-
a. Wall Street analysts think companies in the S&P 500 will see earnings per share rise just 1% in 2023, compared with 2022
b. The S&P 500, on the other hand, is up 17%
c. In other words, share prices are outpacing puny expectations for profit growth

3. JPM:
a. The consensus 2024 EPS growth rate of 12% appears too optimistic
b. Aging business cycle with very restrictive monetary policy
c. Still rising cost of capital
d. Lapping of very easy fiscal policy almost over
e. Eroding consumer savings and household liquidity
f. Low unemployment rate and
g. Increasing risk of a recession for some of the largest economies abroad (e.g., China, Germany).

As for myself, I'm reminding myself to also be a bit more careful and not to take unnecessary risk. It's probably time to conserve some Cash and to sell any existing positions into strength during the coming "Window Dressing Season".

Again, my goal is to survive until interest rate starts to drop, probably in 1H 2024. That means, I will need a higher level of Cash for the next few months.

It's no longer time to buy the small dips and hope to get that 3% return. Instead, the capital should now be conserved for "extremely oversold" conditions later (hopefully).

For next week, Malaysians would be watching whether BNM will increase interest rates on Sept 7th. Even if they do, it would probably be a small increase only, say 25 bps. Probably a Non-Event.

As for China and HK, they would proaably continue to try to talk up the markets, with some small actions along the way. I dont think they would be bringing out the big bazookas yet until there's a "crash".

As for the US, I think that they will be continuing to climb their "Wall Of Worry". I think that they are now closer to a quick sudden drop than before. I would probably not buy the "Magnificent Seven" anymore until I see a meaningful correction.

Finally, I have three short trips coming up over the next five weeks. So it also make sense that I slowly wind down my trading activities and take a "trading break" while "Market Sentiments" are a bit weak.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (30% from 33% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 59% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$86 from US$80 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m cut till Sep 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1966 from US$1943 from US$1918;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$25 from US$24 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.85 from US$3.77 from US$3.72;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$59 from US$58 last week from US$57 two week ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 26007 from 26094 last week from 26650 two weeks ago @ 5.58 PM on Sep 01, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "56 Greed" from "48 Neutral" last week from "45 Neutral" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4516 from 4406 last week from 4478 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 18382 from 17956 from 17948;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3133 from 3064 from 3132;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32711 from 31624 from 31451;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1463 from 1444 from 1457:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold Malayan Cement
c. Sold MYEG
d. Sold 1/2 Destini
d. Sold 1/2 Hap Seng


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Sep 1 @ 9.45 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 145 from 146 last week from 145 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.43 from 3.42 from 3.42;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8416 from 7.8445 from 7.8279;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.63 from 4.64 from 4.64;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.35 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.25 from 7.29 from 7.28;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.56 from 104.08 last week from 103.22 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.23% from 4.25% from 4.16%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.08% from 4.94% from 4.89%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.44 from 91.13 from 90.80;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.31 from 74.30 from 74.04;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1086 from 1110 from 1247; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Sep 10, 2023

Negativity.jpeg

Can You Feel The Negativity?

The markets were quite weak this week and it looks like the "September Effect" is living true to it's name.

The question now is whether "Window Dressing" will appear this quarter. However, "Window Dressing" is also a "double-edged" sword.

This is because "poor performing stocks" would be sold before Sept 30 while the "good performing stocks" will be bought before Sept 30.

So are the stocks in your portfolio performing well or poorly this quarter?

Anyway, with the weak markets, the bears are getting more brave to come out, to frighten you:-

1. Stephanie Pomboy, Macro Mavens:-
a. Investors are forgetting how brutal the period before Fed rate cuts can be
b. Rate hikes caused delayed damage and rate cuts don't work instantly
c. Expects the delayed impacts of higher interest rates to hammer households and businesses.

2. Jeremy Grantham
a. The US Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening in four decades could tip the economy into a downturn and take the stock market with it.

However, one of the biggest stock-market pessimists capitulated this week:-
1. Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas
a, Capitulated and raised his target for the S&P 500 from 3400 to 4,150

For next week, people would be waiting for the US August Inflation data on Wednesday, Sept 13th. Thereafter, that inflation data would supposedly be used by the Feds, to justify whether there would be another rate hike on Sept 20th.

As for myself, I dont think that both events are worth spending too much time on.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (29% from 30% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 57% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 28% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$87 from US$86 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1943 from US$1966 from US$1943;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$25 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.72 from US$3.85 from US$3.77;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$61 from US$59 last week from US$58two week ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. 25900 from 26007 last week from 26094 two weeks ago @ 7.21 AM on Sep 09, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "51 Neutral" from "56 Greed" last week from "48 Neutral" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4457 from 4516 last week from 4406 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18202 from 18382 from 17956;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Traded L'Occitane

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3117 from 3133 from 3064;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 32607 from 32711 from 31624;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1455 from 1463 from 1444:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold Destini


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 8 @ 5.12 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 147 from 145 last week from 146 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.43 from 3.43 from 3.42;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.64 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.07 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8385 from 7.8416 from 7.8445;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.68 from 4.63 from 4.64;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.34 from 7.25 from 7.29;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.98 from 103.56 last week from 104.08 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.26% from 4.23% from 4.25%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.99% from 5.08% from 4.94%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.59 from 92.44 from 91.13;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.65 from 75.31 from 74.30;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1141 from 1086 from 1110; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Sep 10, 2023

Window.jpg

Window Dressing Season?

We are now touching the middle of Sept and Window Dressing should be starting if it has not already started.

If there's any meaningful rally from the Window Dressing activities, I would probably sell into it.

As mentioned, my objective is to last till 2H 2024 which means that I will need to keep my Cash level elevated for a few more months, in case of any accident in the markets.

Again, that does not mean that I will not buy any "oversold" stocks in the meantime. For this week, I did pick up two "oversold" stocks:-
a. Sun Hung Kai Properties
b. Grab

As the markets have been weak, the bears are out again this week:-

1. Mohamed El-Erian:-
a. Warning that a swath of corporations will be hurt by higher interest rates when they have to refinance next year

2. John Hussman:-
a. Investors may want to "buckle up" ahead of a fourth-quarter recession
b. If recession was to begin in Q4, the time to buckle up would be right now
c. Has long been pessimistic about the US economy and stocks, warning of a deep plunge in equities for years; So very wrong till date.

3. Bill Gross:-
a. Investors are overlooking the risk to stocks from a sharp rise in real bond yields
b. Skeptical the Fed will achieve 2% inflation and cut interest rates anytime soon.
c. Warned the US economy relies on asset prices rising, putting it at risk if they don't.

4. Ray Dalio:-
a. Doesn't want to hold bonds, cash ‘is good’

5. Kyle Bass:-
a. Sees Banks Losing Quarter Trillion Dollars In Coming Office Market Collapse; Morgan Stanley: Sees 40% Wipeout

6. Mike Wilson:-
a. The S&P 500 is priced for perfection and could plunge 25% if problems crop up
b. Outlook for company earnings and the economy is pretty grim
c. Investors have piled into Big Tech to ride out the storm but they may still feel pain

7. Jeffrey Gundlach:-
a. Thinks the Fed will cut “in the first half of the next year,” and at a speed much faster than it had raised rates.
b. The Fed raises rates by taking the stairs and they cut rates by taking the elevator

8. Milton Berg:-
a. Stocks could crash nearly 50% as a severe recession sets in
b. Flagged investor complacency and more banking woes as risk factors.
c. Expects the S&P 500 to plunge below its level in October and approach its pandemic lows

For next week, everyone is watching the Feds, to see whether they would be raising interest rates on Sept 20th. As mentioned last week, I think that it's a non-event. interest rates are already elevated and they cant go much higher from here.

Finally, I have to make a few short trips over the next few weeks. Therefore, I wont be able to post much over the next few weeks including my Weekly Investment Blogs.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (32% from 29% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$91 from US$87 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Flat. US$1945 from US$1943 from US$1966;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.80 from US$3.72 from US$3.85;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$62 from US$61 last week from US$59 two week ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 26607 from 25900 last week from 26007 two weeks ago @ 8.03 AM on Sep 16, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "52 Neutral: from "51 Neutral" last week from "56 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4450 from 4457 last week from 4516 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. Bought GRAB

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18183 from 18202 from 18382 from 17956;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Sun Hung Kai Properties

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3118 from 3117 from 3133;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33533 from 32607 from 32711;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1459 from 1455 from 1463:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 15 @ 10.37 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 147 from 147 last week from 145 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.44 from 3.43 from 3.43;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8273 from 8385 from 7.8416;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.68 from 4.68 from 4.63;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.26 from 7.34 from 7.25;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.01 from 104.98 last week from 103.56 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.34% from 4.26% from 4.23%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.04% from 4.99% from 5.08%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.88 from 91.59 from 92.44;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.92 from 74.65 from 75.31;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1340 from 1141 from 1086; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 15, 2023

Big picture.jpg

The Big Picture (Update)

I was away for the past three weekends so it's timely to check on the "Big Picture" before the US Earnings Season.

1. Interest Rates:- The US government cannot afford to raise interest rates by too much as they have a huge debt to service. Every 100 bps rise in interest rates, will add about US$285b in additional interest payments for the US government.

Therefore, Powell's hands are quite tied but he will continue to try to frighten the markets, to manage "inflation expectations".

So what if he raise interests by another 50 bps over the next few months?

Things are already slowing down rapidly in the US. I dont think the US economy can take another 1% rise in interest rates.

Commercial Properties are already tanking. If interest rate remains elevated into the next 18 months, the next shoe to drop could be Residential Properties.

SMEs are already struggling and so are those with huge Credit Card debts.

The question is how long more, could interest rates stay "elevated". My guess is that US interest rates will probably not drop until the next crisis appear, as the Feds has a history of overshooting things.

Therefore, I may need to now keep some dry powder until at least 1Q 2024.

2. Inflation:- Consumer Demand is already dropping and there's no more Supply Chain issues.

I think that for future CPI and PPI numbers, they would show that inflation is dropping as long as the Ukraine War, Israel Conflict and Oil Prices, do not get worse from here

3. USD:- The USD has been quite strong due to the high interest rates in the US. Once there's a feeling of "Peak Interest Rates", it should weaken from there. It looks like it would only occur around 2H 2024 now.

4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in Global Demand. So far, the "China Reopening" has not lead to more demand for Commodities yet.

5. Liquidity:- The markets have been fairly liquid and we have not seen any major problem. In the meantime, China and Japan is continuously adding to the world's Liquidity.

6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not get worse from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.

7. Ukraine War:- I was expecting it to end sooner than later. China was trying to be seen as a "mediator" but it looks like an uphill battle now. With the Israel Conflict now and the US Debt Ceiling Circus, it looks like this Ukraine War may drag on for a little while longer.

8. Market Sentiment:- "Magnificent Seven" is still strong in the US. China and HK may be a bit "oversold" and could be a "good bet" for the medium term.

9. US Earnings:- People are focusing on the forward guidance to see how bad things will be. Some "experts' are talking of an "US Earnings Recession" and how it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets.

10. Trading Tactic:- I have been buying on any steep drop and trying to sell at the 50% retracement. In the meantime, I need to watch my "Cash Level" as I now need to survive till 1H 2024.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (33% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 60% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$88;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1946
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$23
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.57
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$70 from US$73 last week;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 26871 @ 8.00 AM on Oct 14, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - "29 Fear"
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4328 from 4309 last week from 4288 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. Sold SEA (SE)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17813 from 17486 last week from 17810 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought JD
d. Sold Sun Hung Kai Properties
e. Sold Ping An
f. Sold NIO

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3088 from 3110 from 3119;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32316 from 31076 from 31858;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1444 from 1416 from 1424:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Boustead Plantations
c. Traded Hume Cement


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 14 @ 8.20 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 150
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8250;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 106.45;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.06%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 89.18;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 72.75;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1935 from 1340 from 1141; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 22, 2023

Bearish.jpg

Bearish Market Direction?

It has been said that about 70% of the counters, goes in the direction of the market.

Therefore, one would not want to be betting against the market unless there's a very good company specific or sector news.

And if you are a fan of "CANSLIM", you will probably not be investing in this type of market.

"CANSLIM" gives a lot of weighting to "Market Direction" and if there's a series of "distributing days" as in the past week, one would be really going against the market.

Intuitively, I have also not been trading much this week. I had only one purchase despite watching the markets attentively.

Anyway, HK will be closed on Monday and it's not a good bet to have any new HK position over the long weekend with the ongoing Israel conflict, although I think that some counters in HK are quite "oversold".

As for the US, I'm watching for any opportunities during earnings announcements. TSLA has corrected quite a bit but I have not initiated a position yet.

Since the markets have been quite weak, the "bears" have been coming out again:-
1. Jamie Dimon: This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.
2. John Hussman: The S&P 500 is in a historic bubble and could crash by 63%
3. Mike Wilson: The U.S. stocks could enjoy a year-end rally but still believes that shares will end the year lower than they are right now

Finally, we will be hitting a new month soon so there could be some fund managers
who could be deploying some of their existing Cash late next week, as they would be receiving new money from the new month.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat (33% from 33% last week, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 61% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$88 from US$88 last week;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; When will they be replenishing it?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1993 from US$1946
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$23
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.55 from US$3.57
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$69 from US$70 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 29813 @ 5.38 PM on Oct 20, 2023 from 26871 last week
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "26 Fear" from "29 Fear" last week
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4224 from 4328 last week from 4309 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17172 from 17813 last week from 17486 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2983 from 3088 from 3110;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 31259 from 32316 from 31076;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1441 from 1444 from 1416:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought YTL


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 20 @ 5.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 150 from 150
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.47 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.06 from 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8222 from 7.8250;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.77 from 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.29 from 7.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 106.10 from 106.45;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.06%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 87.96 from 89.18;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 71.78 from 72.75;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2071 from 1935 from 1340; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

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