Liquidity 02 incl QE, Twist, LTRO, APP etc (Jun 14 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

TGA increase $61BN to $328BN on same day Reverse repo rose by $48BN. That's a big gap ($109BN) that has to be plugged by reserves
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/16 ... 3679337472


TSY cash up $300BN in past 3 weeks
Reverse repo down $105BN in past 3 weeks
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/16 ... 2435898368

[behappyalways]

Money-Supply Growth Falls By Depression-Era Levels For Second Month In April
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/money ... onth-april


Don't forget the ECB's draining of liquidity before month-end.
https://twitter.com/nglinsman/status/16 ... 7902738435


There is a growing divergence between the size of the big five central bank balance sheets and the performance of global equity markets
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 5034878976

[winston]

by behappyalways:-

This may not bode well for $SPX, according to this study by Morgan Stanley on the correlation between the S&P 500 and bank reserves.

Bank reserves are set to decline by a total of approximately $500B with the level of Treasury issuance we are seeing post-debt ceiling resolution

The Treasury may issue up to $700B in T-bills just weeks after any debt ceiling resolution, pulling liquidity out of the market.

While the lack of issuance was helpful to offset the impacts of QT, such a sizable issuance is like an amplifier for tightening financial conditions.

https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 3808893952

[behappyalways]

Reserves drop another $80BN to $3.172TN. Stocks lagging
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/16 ... 8519053323

by behappyalways:-
This may not bode well for $SPX, according to this study by Morgan Stanley on the correlation between the S&P 500 and bank reserves.

Bank reserves are set to decline by a total of approximately $500B with the level of Treasury issuance we are seeing post-debt ceiling resolution

The Treasury may issue up to $700B in T-bills just weeks after any debt ceiling resolution, pulling liquidity out of the market.

While the lack of issuance was helpful to offset the impacts of QT, such a sizable issuance is like an amplifier for tightening financial conditions.

https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 3808893952

[winston]

Forget quantitative tightening - the Fed will double its balance sheet to over $16 trillion, boosting stocks

by Filip De Mott

Ballooning debt will force the Federal Reserve to bring back quantitative easing, Michael Howell wrote.

He said in the Financial Times that the Fed's balance sheet will have to double.

"Investors should therefore expect a continuing tail wind from global liquidity instead of last year's severe headwinds."

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-q ... 00019.html

[behappyalways]

Following the repayment of ECB TLTROs last week, major central bank assets are the smallest since October 2020. Down $2t in past 3 months.

https://twitter.com/PPGMacro/status/1676608717863673857

[behappyalways]

Since June 1:
Treasury cash has increased $494BN
Reverse Repo has dropped $434BN

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/16 ... 0106333184

[behappyalways]

The Fed's open market account (SOMA) is shrinking, reverse repos (RRP) are dropping, and the Treasury is still filling its coffers at the Fed—all of which gives us a flat liquidity profile.

The stock market has been ignoring it, betting on better earnings to justify its P/E-driven advance. We’ll know soon enough if this is justified.

https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/stat ... 2061698049

[behappyalways]

Where is all the liquidity coming from?
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/16 ... 8307373056

[behappyalways]

The disconnect between Fed net liquidity (grey) and the S&P 500 (purple) is growing by the day
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 1877514240


The latest US money supply data has revealed that on an annual basis, the M1 money supply has plunged deeper into negative territory, falling to -10.2% in June.

The M2 money supply also continues to see a relatively large YoY decline, which was -3.6% in June.
https://twitter.com/steveanastasiou/sta ... 7103005697