Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ May 14, 2023

Summer.jpg

Summer Doldrums?

The markets were weak and didnt go anywhere for the week. It's as if all the traders have gone on their Summer Holidays.

Having said that, there were some volatility in the US counters whenever they announced their earnings. However, it's not easy to trade those counters unless they are extremely oversold.

For this week, I'm again seeing more bullish articles than bearish ones, including the following:-

1. Barrons:- Everyone Expects the Stock Market to Tumble. What If It Goes Up Instead? Investors Aren't Ready for a Rally. It's Time to Prepare.

2. Goldman Sachs Sees Only Small Chance of Recession. It forecasts economic growth of 1.6% this year, after 1.1% annualized growth in the first quarter.

3. The Street: Debt Ceiling may spook markets but Dollar, Bond markets tell a different story

4. BofA: Bullish breakout in global breadth means the S&P 500 could surge 19% from current levels.
a. Bullish technical backdrop signals support the case for a higher S&P 500 into year-end and early 2024
b. Bullish signals from the golden cross, net tab, Farrell sentiment, the weekly global advance-decline line, NYSE breadth thrust and the cross above the 12-month moving average do not rule out the S&P 500 4,600s to S&P 500 4,900s into February and March 2024

5. Stansberry Research: Over the past 40 years, stocks have a history of soaring after the Fed pauses rate hikes. And it means we could see the markets soar 20% over the next year.

6. Tom Lee: Balanced risk/reward setup for the stock market

7. AAII Survey: Bearish sentiments at historical high

8. Cash on Sidelines: US$5.3t


And the following are some bearish articles this week:-

1. Jamie Dimon: The debt ceiling standoff could cause panic

2. Wells Fargo: The S&P 500 is topping out and a correction is ahead


BTW, if you are really worried that the US debt ceiling talks may fail, there's alway the option of revaluing their 8000 tons of gold at Fort Knox. Currently, those gold are valued at only US$42 per ounce and if you marked them to the market price of say US$2042, you would have an additional US$500b to spend.

This option was discussed before at the last Debt Ceiling Crisis in 2013. Luckily, they did not use this option at that time and hopefully, they dont need to use this option this time, as it's always good to have an emergency fund for a rainy day.

For next week, we have the following:-
1. May 18: Black Sea Grain Deal.
2. Debt Ceiling Discussions


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (42% from 45% last week from 43% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 40% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 23% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 34% (13 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$70 from US$71 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. Russia and Saudi, to cut 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2016 from US$2025 from US$1999;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$24 from US$26 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.72 from US$3.89 from US$3.90;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX; Vested Zijin
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$53 from US$54 last week from US$52 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$26850 from US$29548 last week from US$29346 two weeks ago @ 10.02 AM on May 13, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "58 Greed" from "59 Greed" last week from "60 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4124 from 4136 last week from 4169 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Sold Grab
g. Sold Cloudflare

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19627 from 20049 from 20439;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Bought Sensetime
e. Bought Zijin
f. Sold 1/3 JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3272 from 3335 from 3301;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 29388 from 29158 from 28564;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1423 from 1431 from 1422:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. Added to MYEG


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on May 12 @ 5.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 135 from 134 last week from 135 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.36 from 3.35 from 3.34;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.09 from 1.10 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8421 from 7.8591 from 7.8503;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.48 from 4.44 from 4.46;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.33 from 1.33 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.95 from 6.92 from 6.91;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 101.98 from 101.05 from 101.49;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.46% from 3.44% from 3.43%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.99 from 3.92% from 4.02%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.66 from 91.18 from 92.13;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.69 from 74.36 from 75.04;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1608 from 1545 from 1581; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ May 28, 2023

Worry2.jpg

US: Climbing A Wall Of Worry?

The US and Japanese markets have been grinding higher, while the HK, China and Malaysian markets have been quite weak.

If you are an avid student of CANSLIM, you would not be investing in the latter markets where their "market direction" is not strong.

Coincidentally, most of my trading for the past two weeks were in the US and there were very little trades in HK and Malaysia.

I have not been really thinking about the "market direction" for my trades. Whenever a "trading opportunity" arises, I would either take it or avoid it. Somehow, intuitively, I have been avoiding the "trading opportunies" in HK and Malaysia over the past few weeks.

Anyway, for this week, we have the following bearish articles:-

1. Barron's: Hedge funds are bullish on their stocks but bearish on the market

2. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management: Sees a hard economic landing fueled by tighter credit conditions and higher interest rates.

3. Nourel Roubini: Wall Street could be just 2 weeks away from a giant market crash

4. Investing.com: There will be net new debt issuance of more than $700B during the three months following a debt-ceiling deal.

5. AP: Repelled by high car prices, Americans are holding on to their vehicles longer than ever

6. Bloomberg: Recession? It’s already arrived


And the following are some bullish articles:-

1. Carson Group: Two bullish indicators just flashed, suggesting a continued rally in the stock market:-
a. Better-than-expected 1Q Earnings and
b. A rising 200-day moving average

2. Breakout Trader: We’re headed higher over the coming months
a. The bias is for yields to move lower into July/August and for stocks to move meaningfully higher.
b. The jobs reports over the next few months will likely show continued softening and continued easing of wage inflation
c. The inflation reports over the next few months will likely show more rapid disinflation than we’ve seen in the first half of the year
d. The Fed will certainly pause its rate-hike campaign by this summer and will maybe even start to discuss cuts

3. Paul Tudor Jones: The Fed's hikes are done, stocks will rise.


My trading strategy has evolved slightly over the last few weeks:-
a. Whenever there's a "trading opportunity" in the US, it's very likely I will take it as the market is grinding higher
b. However, for both HK and Malaysia, whenever there's a "trading opportunity", it's very likely that I will sit on it longer and demand a higher margin of safety, as the "market direction" is weak
c. I think that US interest rates will start to drop over the next few months but am mindful that interest rates could stay high longer than expected into 4Q 2023
d. I need to raise my Cash Level to about 65% going into 3Q 2023
e. I continue to remind myself to be "cautiously bullish" not "pessimistic"

For the next two weeks, I'm expecting the US markets to continue grinding higher:-
1. US: End of Debt-Ceiling Circus
2. New Money From The New Month


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (39% from 42% two weeks ago from 45% three weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 38% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 34% (13 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk

a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$73 from US$72 two weeks ago from US$70 three weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. Russia and Saudi, to cut 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1946 from US$1976 from US$2016;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.67 from US$3.68 from US$3.72;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX; Vested Zijin
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$54 from US$53 from US$53;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$26719 from US$27270 two weeks from US$26850 three weeks ago @ 7.23 AM on May 27, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "68 Greed" from "58 Greed" two weeks ago from "59 Greed" three weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4305 from 4192 from 4124;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Bought SEA (SE)
g. Bought SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
h. Traded Grab
i. Sold SMH (Semiconductor ETF)
j. Sold Paypal (PYPL)
i. Sold Block (SQ)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18747 from 19450 from 19678;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200;
c. Bought Alibaba
d. Traded JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3213 from 3283 from 3272;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 30916 from 30809 from 29388;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1403 from 1429 from 1423:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. No trade (2 weeks)


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on May 27 @ 8.06 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 141 from 135 two weeks ago from 134 three weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.41 from 3.36 from 3.35;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.07 from 1.09 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8321 from 7.8421 (two weeks ago ) from 7.8591;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.60 from 4.48 from 4.44;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.33 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.06 from 6.95 from 6.92;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.16 from 101.98 (two weeks ago) from 101.05 (three weeks ago);
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.80% from 3.46% two weeks ago from 3.44% three weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.57% from 3.99 two weeks ago from 3.92% three weeks ago

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 90.78 from 91.66 two weeks ago from 91.18;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.02 from 74.69 two weeks ago from 74.36;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1215 from 1608 two weeks ago from 1545 three weeks ago; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ June 3, 2023

Buy Hold.jpg

Hold or Buy?

The markets were quite strong on Friday.
1. The S&P 500 added 1.45%
2. The Hang Seng shot up 4.02%

As mentioned two weeks ago, I think that the US markets will continue it's grind higher.

The potential rate hike of 25 bps on June 14th will probably be a non-event. In addition, 2Q Window Dressing activities will be appearing in about two weeks.

I'm mindful that the US markets have been rising for a while and that there could be some profit-taking. However, I think that any dips in the US market should be bought but it will depends on the event that trigger that dip. It's best to stay flexible on the US market for the time being. I will hold or continue trading until early July, after Window Dressing.

As for HK, the 700 points rise on Friday may have signalled a change in the direction of the markets. HK has been dropping for about four months and it may have hit support.

The short-sellers in HK are now probably wondering whether they have to cover now. In addition, I think that some people are now afraid to sell, in case they are not able to buy their counters back later, at a lower price as in December 2022. The under-weighted Fund Managers, are also thinking whether they need to chase now, in case the HK markets take off.

Over the next two weeks, the HK market trading activities will determine whether this is a fake rally or a new bull market. Intuitively, I think it's time to buy any dips as well as to sit on my existing HK positions. Again, I will probably trade or hold until early July.

I will be going for a short trip next week so there will be no weekly investment blog next week.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (40% from 39% last week from 42% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 44% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 27% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$72 from US$73 last week from US$72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. Russia and Saudi, to cut 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
j. June 4: Opec + Meeting

2. Gold - Higher. US$1964 from US$1946 from US$1976;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$23 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.73 from US$3.67 from US$3.68;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX; Vested Zijin
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$55 from US$54 from US$53;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$27257 from US$26719 last week from US$27270 two weeks @ 7.50 AM on June 3, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "65 Greed" from "68 Greed" two weeks ago from "58 Greed" three weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4282 from 4205 from 4192;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4325; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 18;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 18950 from 18747 from 19450;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200;
c. Added to Meituan
d. Bought 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3230 from 3213 from 3283;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 31524 from 30916 from 30809;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1381 from 1403 from 1429:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. Added to Hap Seng Consolidated
c. Sold MYEG
d. Sold Gamuda
e. Traded Destini


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 3 @ 11.08 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 140 from 141 last week from 135 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.39 from 3.41 from 3.36;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.07 from 1.07 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8383 from 7.8321 from 7.8421 ;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.58 from 4.60 from 4.48;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.08 from 7.06 from 6.95;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.99 from 104.16 from 101.98 ;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.70% from 3.80% from 3.46%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.51% from 4.57% from 3.99

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.38 from 90.78 from 91.66;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.58 from 74.02 from 74.69;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 919 from 1215 from 1608; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ June 9, 2023

Window.jpg

Window Dressing?

I was not planning to write this week but since I have some time before my trip, I thought that it would be good to just update my weekly numbers.

Although I'm "cautiously bullish", I did unload some of my positions because the markets were quite strong this week.

However, I need to remind myself that Window Dressing activities would be appearing soon and I must also have some positions to ride it.

For those who like to listen to the bearish gurus (who kinda sound smart), I would like to remind you that the super hurricanes, debt crisis, hyperinflation, depression, nuclear war etc. still has not arrived and instead, we are having a nice rally in the markets.

For next week, we have the following;-
1. US CPI: June 13; Maybe Powell's transitory inflation has finally arrived
2. FOMC Meeting: June 13 & 14; So what if it is zero or 25 bps?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (32% from 40% last week from 39% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 49% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 17% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 35% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$72 from US$72 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. UAE leaving OPEC?
i. Saudi to cut another 1m bpd
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1977 from US$1964 from US$1946;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.80 from US$3.73 from US$3.67;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX; Vested Zijin
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$57 from US$55 from US$54;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 26641 from US$27257 last week from US$26719 two weeks @ 5.45 PM on June 9, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "77 Extreme Greed" from "65 Greed" last week from "68 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4294 (Thursday) from 4282 from 4205;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4325; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 18;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Sold SEA
g. Sold Tesla

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19390 from 18950 from 18747;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18600; 17,300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Sold 1/3 Meituan
d. Sold 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
e. Sold Alibaba
f. Sold Standard Chartered

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3231 from 3230 from 3213;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32265 from 31524 from 30916;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1376 from 1381 from 1403:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on June 9 @ 5.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 140 from 140 from 141
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.43 from 3.39 from 3.41;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.08 from 1.07 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8379 from 7.8383 from 7.8321;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.61 from 4.58 from 4.60;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.34 from 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.12 from 7.08 from 7.06;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.50 from 103.99 from 104.16;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.75% from 3.70% from 3.80%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.57% from 4.51% from 4.57%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.59 from 91.38 from 90.78;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.70 from 74.58 from 74.02;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1020 from 919 from 1215; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ June 17, 2023

Big picture.jpg

The Big Picture (Update)

It has been a while since I looked at the "Big Picture" so it's timely to do one again.


1. Interest Rates:- The US government cannot afford to raise interest rates by too much as they have a huge debt to service. Every 100 bps rise in interest rates, will add about US$285b in additional interest payments for the US government.

Therefore, Powell's hands are tied but he will continue to try to frighten the markets, to manage "inflation expectations".

There are four more FOMC meetings this year, on July 26, Sep 20, Nov 1 and Dec 13. Powell has mentioned that there could be two more rate hikes by the end of the year but I think he's bluffing.

Things are already slowing down rapidly in the US. I dont think the US economy can take another 1% rise in interest rates. Commercial Properties are tanking and the next shoe to drop could be Residential Properties. SMEs are also struggling and so are those with huge Credit Card debts.

However, interest rates may stay elevated for some time and will probably not drop until there's a severe economic slowdown or a stock-market crash.

If the US economy does not tank in 3Q 2023 then interest rates may drop only in 4Q 2023 or even in 1Q 2024.

In view of the above, I should try to conserve some of my bullets until 4Q 2023.


2. Inflation:- Consumer Demand is already dropping and there's no more Supply Chain issues. I think that for future CPI and PPI numbers, they would show that inflation is dropping as long as the Ukraine War do not get worse from here.


3. USD:- The USD has been quite strong due to the high interest rates in the US. Once there's a feeling of "Peak Interest Rates", it should weaken from there. I think that it would only occur around 4Q 2023.


4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in Global Demand. So far, the "China Reopening" has not lead to more demand for Commodities.


5. Liquidity:- The markets have been fairly liquid and we have not seen any major problem. Once we get over the US$700b of Treasuries to be issued due to the debt ceiling circus, there should be adequate liquidity in the system.


6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War do not get worse from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.


7. Ukraine War:- I'm expecting it to end sooner than later. It's now a matter of finding a "face-saving" way for all parties. China is trying to be seen as a "mediator" but it's an uphill task.


8. Market Sentiment:- Overbought in the US. Mild rally in HK. Once "Window Dressing" season is over, I think that there could be a correction. If it's a steep one, I may deploy some of my Cash at that time but my objective is to keep my powders dry until 4Q 2023.


9. US Earnings:- People are focusing on the forward guidance to see how bad things will be. Everyone is talking of an "Earnings Recession" and how it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets.


10. US Market:- Overbought on AI hype? May need to be a bit careful in the short-term. The S&P is currently being propped up by the "Magnificent 7" and if any one of these 7 counters starts to crash, it could very quickly snowball into a sharp correction.

Since the markets have rallied quite a bit, there would also be some rebalancing, estimated at US$150b over the next few weeks. I have been selling my US stocks into the rally.


11. HK Stock Market:- Mild Rally. The global fund managers are underweighting HK & China so it could take some time for the HK market to recover. I have been selling my HK stocks into the rally.


12. Trading Tactic:- I have been buying on any steep drop and trying to sell at the 50% retracement level. I need to remind myself to watch my "Cash Level" as I need to survive till 4Q 2023.

Going forward, I should be more choosy with my trades ie. better set-ups, less short-term trading, bigger margin of safety, two year horizon, better quality companies etc.

My "Cash Level" as a percentage of my Liquid Assets is about 27% now, down from about 50% not too long ago.

For next week, I think everyone would be watching the "Window Dressing" activities. If the markets continue to rally strongly, I may be selling again.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (27% from 32% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 50% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 10% (3 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 40% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$71 from US$72 last week from US$72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. UAE leaving OPEC?
i. Saudi to cut another 1m bpd
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1970 from US$1977 from US$1964;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.88 from US$3.80 from US$3.73;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$58 from US$57 from US$55;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 25537 from 26641 last week from US$27257 two weeks @ 12.25 PM on June 16, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "82 Extreme Greed" from "77 Extreme Greed" last week from "65 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4426 from 4299 last week from 4282 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 18;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Sold SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20040 from 19390 from 18950;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18600; 17,300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Sold Baidu
d. Sold Tencent
e. Sold Zijin

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3273 from 3231 from 3230;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33706 from 32265 from 31524;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1385 from 1376 from 1381:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. Sold MUI Properties
c. Sold Reneuco


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on June 16 @ 12.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 140 from 140 from 140
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.45 from 3.43 from 3.39;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.69 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8214 from 7.8379 from 7.8383;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.62 from 4.61 from 4.58;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.13 from 7.12 from 7.08;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.80 from 103.50 from 103.99;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.74% from 3.75% from 3.70%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.68% from 4.57% from 4.51%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.16 from 91.59 from 91.38;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.12 from 74.70 from 74.58;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1094 from 1020 from 919; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ June 25, 2023

Sounding Smart.jpg

"Sounding Smart" versus "Making Money"

Over the past few months, you may have noticed that I have been making fun of the so called "big-name experts", who were calling for Super-Hurricanes, Debt Crisis, Depression, Stock-Market Crash etc.

They did sound very smart and provided many "logical reasons" why the world would end.

If you have followed their "insights" and shorted the markets, you would have certainly lost some money

Even if you have not shorted the markets but were afraid to be in the markets, you would have missed a huge rally in the US markets.

IMHO, it's good to listen to such "experts" but it's not necessary to treat them as "gods". They could also have been right in the past but it does not mean that they would be right this time.

One must always keep in mind that the authorities eg. Feds, Politicians, Central Banksters etc. have a vested interest to not see a stock-market crash nor depression and they will be doing everything in their power to prevent one. This does not mean that the authorities will always be able to prevent one but the probability is high and is on their side.

If a stock-market does crash or a depression does occur, you can bet your very last dollar that they would be looking for all sorts of solutions, to bring us out of it, at that time eg. Helicopter Money.

Therefore, the way to probably navigate the situation is as follows:-
1. Try to think independently
2. Try to be "cautiously bullish" and not end up as a "pessimistic" like some of these "experts"
3. Double-checked the "Risk Management" thru:-
a. Asset Allocation especially Cash Level
b. Position Sizing
c. Waiting for real "Set-Ups"
d. Trailing Stop-Loss
e. Time Expiry on trades eg. 3 months
etc.

The above does not mean that one would definitely be making money on one's trades but it should serve one well under the current conditions.

One can of course not trade and put one's money into a FD at about 4% pa. Some people would be quite happy getting 4% on their money but I prefer to look for trading opportunities of 4% in less than 2 weeks.

However, as interest rates starts to creep up, one's "Opportunity Cost" also starts to go up too. Therefore, one will have to adjust one's "Asset Allocation" accordingly.

Our investment style may be different from one another so "to each their own".

For this week, I will continue to rub the "pessimist" with the following bullish articles:-

1. Billionaire CEO Barry Sternlicht: Admits that he was ‘a little early’ with his recession calls. "I did not understand the strength of the consumer"

2. Business Insider: Three reasons the markets could hit record high by year-end
a. Record highs aren't that far away.
b. Market breadth is improving.
c. S&P 500 Advance-Decline line just closed at a new all-time high

3. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian: "I think that we're at a place where visibility and transparency is better than it was over the past 10 years."

4. Investor Place: The Trend is Up. Stocks Are Performing Well.
a. Eventhough the bear market is over, the pain of last year is not forgotten.
b. Everyone is still shell-shocked, making it easier to fall prey to all kinds of scary stories about the market.
c. Don’t make that mistake. The trend is up. Stocks are performing well.

5. Daily Wealth: The Economy Is Ok
a. Credit-card delinquencies are near record lows
b. The current "Personal Savings Rate" is in line with it's historical average

The following article quite sums up my feeling about the markets right now and how to trade them:-

Investor Place: On Market Timing
a. Short-term: Market weakness due to "Overbought" market conditions
b. Medium-term: Use weakness to look for entry-points for strong, surging stocks
c. Long-term: Keep aware of the red flags that haven’t gone anywhere and be ready to jump ship if/when the day of reckoning comes.

Finally, I need to remind myself to not "sound too smart" but instead be "cautiously bullish" and to continue looking for some good trading opportunities out there.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (26% from 27% last week from 32% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 51% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 10% (3 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 38% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$70 from US$71 last week from US$72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. UAE leaving OPEC?
i. Saudi to cut another 1m bpd
j. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1930 from US$1970 from US$1977;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$22 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.81 from US$3.88 from US$3.80;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$56 from US$58 from US$57;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 30650 from 25537 last week from two weeks @ 7.13 AM on June 24, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "74 Extreme Greed" from "82 Extreme Greed" last week from "77 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4348 from 4426 last week from 4299 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18890 from 20040 from 19390;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18600; 17,300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to Vitasoy

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3198 from 3273 from 3231;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 32782 from 33706 from 32265;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1391 from 1385 from 1376:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. Sold SCIB


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on June 23 @ 6.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 143 from 140 from 140
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.46 from 3.45 from 3.43;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.67 from 0.69 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8297 from 7.8214 from 7.8379;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.68 from 4.62 from 4.61;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.18 from 7.13 from 7.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 102.63 from 101.80 from 103.50;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 3.75% from 3.74% from 3.75%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.77% from 4.68% from 4.57%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.18 from 92.16 from 91.59;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.32 from 75.12 from 74.70;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1216 from 1094 from 1020; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ July 2, 2023

July.jpeg

New Money From The New Month

It's a new month so new funds will be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets next week unless the fund managers have already spent their Cash over the past few days on "Window Dressing" activities.

Thereafter, things could be quiet until the start of "US Earnings Season", during the second week of July, led by banking giants JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C).

In the meantime, let's see how the various markets have done year-to-date:-
1. S&P 500: +16%
2. Nasdaq: +39%
3. Hang Seng: -4%
4. Shanghai SSE: +4%
5. KLSE: -8%

The above is no where near what the "rock-star experts" have been telling you eg. Debt Crisis, Super-Hurricane, Stagflation, Hyperinflation, Recession, Depression, Crash, yada yada etc.

Anywhere past under-performance may not equate to future under-performance, so it's always good to be a bit careful but do not be too pessimistic.

Going forward, I will be continuing with my current conservative trading strategy:-
1. Waiting longer for trading set-ups
2. Waiting longer for fundamentals to appear before buying
3. Cut Losses quicker eg, within 2 days
4. Whenever there's any doubt, avoid
5. To trade lesser counters at any one time
6. To watch position size
7. To ease more into any buying or selling
8. To trade the better known companies and index stocks only
etc.

The next big event could be the FOMC Meeeting on July 25 & 26. So what if they increase rates by another 25 bps then? Markets are somehow too fixated on such things as if there's no more common sense.

Or maybe it's the robots trading nowadays so it make sense that they are behaving stupidly, illogically and irrationally.

Would another two rise in interest rates be that big a deal, after you have raised interest rates 5% in just a year and SMEs, Mortgage holders and Credit Card borrowers are already drowning? If Inflation was so important in the first place, why did you have QE to throw helicopter money around?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (29 % from 26% last week from 27% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (14 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 10% (3 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 38% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$70 from US$70 last week from US$71 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. Iranian Oil - 4m bpd
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Venezuela Sanctions
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. UAE leaving OPEC?
i. Saudi to cut another 1m bpd
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1928 from US$1930 from US$1970;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$23 from US$22 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.76 from US$3.81 from US$3.88;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$56 from US$56 from US$58;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);

a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 31068 from 30650 last week from 25537 two weeks @ 8.52 PM on Jun 30, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "80 Extreme Greed" from "74 Extreme Greed" last week from "82 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4450 from 4348 last week from 4426 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 18916 from 18890 from 20040;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18600; 17,300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Tencent
d. Added to Vitasoy
e. Traded Luk Fook
f. Traded L'Occitane

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3202 from 3198 from 3273;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33189 from 32782 from 33706;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1377 from 1391 from 1385:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. Bought MYEG


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jun 30 @ 9.01 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 144 from 143 from 140
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.45 from 3.46 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8351 from 7.8297 from 7.8214;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.67 from 4.68 from 4.62;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.26 from 7.18 from 7.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 102.66 from 102.63 from 101.80;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.83% from 3.75% from 3.74%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.86% from 4.77% from 4.68%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.63 from 91.18 from 92.16 from 91.59;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.71 from 74.32 from 75.12;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1112 from 1216 from 1094; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ July 9, 2023

earnings.png

US 2Q Earnings Season

Wall Street's 2Q earnings season will unofficially start on on Friday, July 14, when names like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and UnitedHealth, all report their latest financial results.

Analysts now expect a -6.8% yearly profit decline and a decrease of -0.4% in revenue growth for 2Q.

If confirmed, that would mark the third consecutive year-over-year decrease in earnings and the first drop in sales since Q2 2020.

Anyway, stocks tend to get "Overbought" or "Oversold" during "Earnings Season", so I find it to be a good time to trade the markets.


For the bears, we have the following articles this week:-

1. Goldman Sachs: Investors should take advantage of the recent rally and prepare for losses by buying insurance

2. Troy Gayeski, FS Investments: Stocks could crater 25% from their current level, if the Fed carries on raising rates. Could also lead to a 4Q recession.

3. Jeremy Grantham: The stock market has a 70% chance of crashing in a few years

4. Morgan Stanley: The equity risk premium or the extra return an investor can expect for investing in the stock market instead of risk-free 10-year Treasuries, is at its lowest level in about 20 years.


And for the bulls, we have the following:-

1. Barron's: Going back to 1950, there has never been a 12-month period, following a midterm election, in which stocks were down.

2. Barron's: Just $600 billion of the $4+ trillion approved under the Biden administration has been deployed. A tsunami of money will be hitting this economy.


Finally, to help you time the markets, Business Insider says these are the 8 warning signs to keep an eye on:-
a. Evidence of speculation and complacency
b. Defensive strength
c. Negative momentum and breadth divergence
d. Seasonality concerns
e. DeMark exhaustion
f. Trend deterioration in key market sectors
g. Overbought market conditions on weekly, monthly basis
h. Intra-market divergence


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (28% from 29 % last week from 26% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 9% (3 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 39% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$74 from US$70 last week from US$70 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi to cut another 1m bpd
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1931 from US$1928 from US$1930;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.78 from US$3.76 from US$3.81;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$56 from US$56 from US$56;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 30340 from 31068 last week from 30650 two weeks @ 7.22 AM on Jul 8, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "78 Extreme Greed" from "80 Extreme Greed" last week from "74 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4399 from 4450 last week from 4348 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18366 from 18916 from 18890;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17,300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Alibaba
d. Bought Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3197 from 3202 from 3198;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 32388 from 33189 from 32782;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1378 from 1391 from 1385:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Traded Farm Fresh Bhd


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 7 @ 3.43 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 143 from 144 from 143
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.45 from 3.45 from 3.46;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8251 from 7.8351 from 7.8297;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.67 from 4.67 from 4.68;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.24 from 7.26 from 7.18;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 102.79 from 102.66 from 102.63;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.05% from 3.83% from 3.75%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.97% from 4.86% from 4.77%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 90.52 from 91.63 from 91.18;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 73.78 from 74.71 from 74.32;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 993 from 1112 from 1216; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ July 16, 2023

Higher.png

Higher and Higher?

The following was from an article in Investor Place, on the recent actions by the S&P 500:-
1. The S&P 500 is approaching its all-time high and the bullishness is also broadening
2. Within the S&P 500, the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (MA) is 84%
3. When we look at stocks trading above their longer-term 200-day MA, that percentage comes in at 73%
4. The New Highs/New Lows Indicator is also on the cusp of edging out the high from February

We also have some comments from the following two reputable source:-
1. Barron's: More Stocks Are Rallying. It May Be Time to Worry.
2. Billionaire Ken Fisher: Don’t be duped by doomsayers. This mega-cap-led surge has legs

As for myself, I have not been able to find any "attractive" trade in the US markets for a while. Therefore, I have not been really trading the US markets for some time.

Instead, I've just been sitting on my existing positions:-
1. GDX (Senior Gold Miners ETF)
2. ICLN (Green Energy ETF)
3. ARKG ( Cathie Wood's Genomic ETF)

My US positions have not been going anywhere for a while and it's no surprise as it's only the "Magnificent 7" that has been rising higher and higher.

Hopefully, with the earnings season, there could be some oversold US counters that I could trade.

As for the HK market, it has been rallying this week and I took the opportunity to sell some Tech counters eg. Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu.

BTW, Goldman Sachs mentioned a few days ago that the HK rally is due to short-covering and not new buying. If that's true, then there should be a dip over the next few weeks and I intend to buy back the Tech counters that I have sold this week.

Looking forward, the next big event would be the FOMC meeting on July 26 & 26. There are rumblings that there could be a 25 bps rise in the interest rates. So what? US interest rates are already elevated and I dont think that it could rise by much from here.

The question is when would interest rates be falling and what would be the catalyst for that fall. Would it be dropping in 4Q 2023 or only in 2024?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (27% from 28% last week from 29% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 51% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 10% (3 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 39% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$75 from US$74 last week from US$70 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi to cut another 1m bpd
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1959 from US$1931 from US$1928;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$25 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.92 from US$3.78 from US$3.76;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$55 from US$56 from US$56;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 31335 from 30340 last week from 31068 two weeks @ 2.50 PM on Jul 14, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "80 Extreme Greed" from "78 Extreme Greed" last week from "80 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4505 from 4399 last week from 4450 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4512; 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19413 from 18366 from 18916;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18000; 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Traded Alibaba
d. Sold Baidu
e. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3237 from 3197 from 3202;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32420 from 32391from 32388
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1412 from 1378 from 1391:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Traded MYEG


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Jul 14 @ 2.35 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 138 from 143 last week from 144 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.42 from 3.45 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.69 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.12 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8175 from 7.8251 from 7.8351;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.52 from 4.67 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.32 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.13 from 7.24 from 7.26;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.52 from 102.79 from 102.66;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.79% from 4.05% from 3.83%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.66% from 4.97% from 4.86%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.79 from 90.52 from 91.63;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.65 from 73.78 from 74.71;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1103 from 993 from 1112; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ July 22, 2023

Buy,Sell Hold.jpg

Buy, Sell or Hold?

The S&P 500 is now above all the year-end targets that the Wall Street forecasters had, coming into the year.

In addition, I'm starting to see more bullish articles nowadays. It looks like the bears have gone into hibernation because they have been so wrong on direction of the markets for the past year.


Anyway, the following are some bullish articles for this week:-

1. Ed Yardeni: The S&P 500 could go on an extended bull run and hit a record high of 5,400 within the next 18 months.

2. CNBC: The long-awaited recession might not arrive.

3. UBS: Government spending, strong savings, and a resilient jobs market are among reasons the economy held up


And to have a balanced view of the markets, the following are some bearish articles to keep you alert:-

1. Bloomberg: AI-related stocks drove all of the S&P 500 returns in 2023

2. Pension Partners: Active managers had < 20% exposure to equities last October when the S&P 500 was at 3,500. Today, their equity exposure has jumped > 90% with the S&P 500 at 4,500. This is the highest exposure since November 2021.

3. Robert Kiyosaki:- The stock market will crash and the US economy will suffer a historic downturn. However, he has been saying this for the past for two years and have been so wrong.

4. Investor Place: The slow boil is beginning. Don’t be the frog in the pot.


For next week, you have the FOMC meeting on July 25 & 26. The whole world is expecting a last hike in rates of 25 bps. Yawn Yawn ..


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (29% from 27% last week from 28% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 54% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 9% (3 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 37% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$77 from US$75 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi to cut another 1m bpd
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1964 from US$1959 from US$1931;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.82 from US$3.92 from US$3.78;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$56 from US$55 from US$56;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 29907 from 31335 last week from 30340 two weeks @ 10.24 AM on Jul 21, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "82 Extreme Greed" from "80 Extreme Greed" last week from "78 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4505 from 4399 last week from 4450 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4512; 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19075 from 19413 from 18366;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18000; 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Baidu
d. Bought Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3168 from 3237 from 3197;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 32304 from 32420 from 32391
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1414 from 1412 from 1378:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold MYEG
c. Sold 1/2 Sports Toto


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 21 @ 10.05 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 140 from 138 last week from 143 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.43 from 3.42 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.68 from 0.69 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.11 from 1.12 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8158 from 7.8175 from 7.8251;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.55 from 4.52 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.33 from 1.32 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.17 from 7.13 from 7.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.48 from 99.52 from 102.79;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.85% from 3.79% from 4.05%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.83% from 4.66% from 4.97%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 92.26 from 92.79 from 90.52;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 75.18 from 75.65 from 73.78;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 977 from 1103 from 993; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.