US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Fed’s $8.6 Trillion Balance Sheet a Focus as Banks Seek Cash

by Alexandra Harris, Jonnelle Marte and Liz Capo McCormick

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-8-6- ... 26666.html

[behappyalways]

Fed Balance Sheet Surges By Another $100BN Amid Bank Runs As Foreign Repos Soar By Record And Cash Floods Into Reverse Repo, Money Markets
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-b ... d-and-cash

[behappyalways]

Chicago Fed's Goolsbee Emerges As First Rate Hike Dissenter, Urges "Caution" Amid Bank Failures
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chica ... k-failures

[behappyalways]

Fed staff projected a mild recession starting later in 2023.


FOMC Minutes Show Staff Expect 'Mild Recession', All Members Backed Continued QT, 25bps Hike
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-4

[behappyalways]

Fed Balance Sheet Shrinks For 3rd Straight Week, Bank Bailout Facility Usage Eases
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-b ... sage-eases

[winston]

Fed officials on track to hike rates and signal potential pause

by Jonnelle Marte & Steve Matthews

What officials do beyond the May 2-3 meeting will hinge on what happens with the economy, which so far has weathered higher borrowing costs.

The Federal Open Market Committee may leave the door open to either holding borrowing costs steady or hiking again at their subsequent gathering in mid-June as they assess the banking landscape.

Investors expect the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points next month from a current target range of 4.75% to 5%, according to futures pricing.

St Louis President James Bullard expects the banking issues to be resolved without a sharp downturn and favours raising rates into a 5.5% to 5.75% range.

“We are much closer to the end of the tightening journey than the beginning”.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/664360

[winston]

Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators Index

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators Index dropped 1.2% month-over-month in March, worse than the 0.7% drop expected by economists.

The year-over-year drop worsened from 6.7% in February, to 7.8% in March.

Historically, every time the LEI dropped more than 5% year-over-year, the Fed was either already in the process of cutting rates or on the verge of cutting rates.

We’re down about 8% year-over-year right now on the LEI and the Fed is still hiking.

Source: Early Stage Investor

[behappyalways]

Fed Hikes 25bps As Expected, Signals 'Hawkish Pause'; Warns Of 'Tighter Credit Standards'
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-7

[behappyalways]

FOMC Minutes Show "Some" Fed Officials Push For More Hikes, Sees "Mild Recession In 2023"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc- ... ssion-2023

[behappyalways]

Fed Emergency Bank Bailout Facility Usage Tops $100 Billion For First Time As Money-Market Inflows Soared Again
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-e ... et-inflows