by ishak » Wed Aug 20, 2008 5:49 pm
Buy Morgan Stanley, sell Citigroup: Goldman
Business Times - 20 Aug 2008
NEW YORK - Goldman Sachs & Co slashed its earnings outlooks for five major rivals on Tuesday, citing mounting write-downs on mortgages, a slowdown in overall activity, and legal expenses.
Analysts led by William Tanona reduced third-quarter and full-year forecasts for Citigroup Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, Merrill Lynch & Co and Morgan Stanley.
Lehman could lose US$9.65 per share for the year, versus a prior forecast for a loss of US$2.10 per share, the Goldman analysts said. Lehman may reduce its mortgage exposure in the third quarter by 20 per cent, or US$15 billion, which could lead to a US$2.5 billion to US$3.5 billion write-down, the analysts said. Its share-price target was cut to US$22 from US$40.
'We assume no or negative earnings for the majority of firms in our universe this quarter, and for some of our firms, the third quarter marks the fourth consecutive quarter of reported losses, clearly an unprecedented streak,' Mr Tanona wrote.
'Firms are clearly being more aggressive with asset sales and reducing their balance sheet exposure to troubled assets,' the analyst added. 'However, we believe a major recovery is still a few quarters away.'
Mr Tanona said results will also be affected as Citigroup, JPMorgan, Merrill and Morgan Stanley buy back billions of dollars of illiquid auction-rate securities from clients.
Citigroup, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have also agreed to regulatory fines over the debt, while Merrill has not.
Despite his outlook, Mr Tanona still recommends a trade in which investors buy Morgan Stanley shares and sell Citigroup shares short. He said Morgan Stanley is one of the brokers best positioned for a market turnaround, while Citigroup will remain heavily exposed to mortgages and consumer credit issues.
Mr Tanona lowered his third-quarter earnings-per-share forecasts as follows: Citigroup, to nil from 17 cents; JPMorgan, to 40 cents from 64 cents; Lehman, to a loss of US$2.75 from a profit of 68 cents; Merrill, to a loss of US$4.75 from a loss of US$4.40; and Morgan Stanley, to 85 cents from US$1.10.
He lowered his 2008 earnings-per-share forecasts as follows: Citigroup, to a loss of US$1.30 from a loss of US$1.10; JPMorgan, to US$2.30 from US$2.60; Lehman, to a loss of $9.65 from a loss of US$2.10; Merrill, to a loss of $10.25 from a loss of US$10.10; and Morgan Stanley, to US$4.45 from US$4.80.
Mr Tanona also lowered his 2009 earnings-per-share forecasts for JPMorgan, Lehman, Merrill and Morgan Stanley. He left his forecast for Citigroup unchanged.
In Tuesday trading, Citigroup shares closed down 43 cents, or 2.4 per cent, at US$17.19; JPMorgan fell $1.16, or 3.2 per cent, to US$35.58; Lehman slid US$1.96, or 13 per cent, to US$13.07; Merrill fell 92 cents, or 3.7 per cent, to US$23.82, and Morgan Stanley fell US$1.51, or 3.8 per cent, to US$38.08.
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.
- Albert Einstein