Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 5, 2023

Ides of March.jpg

Beware of the Ides Of March?

Ino.com had a recent article asking people to beware of the "Ides Of March" due to the upcoming reports:-
1. March 14 - Consumer Price Index (CPI)
2. March 15 - Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales
The above events could provide the necessary catalysts for the next big market move.

At this point in time, the narrative is:-
1. Higher Rates on the way (5%+)
2. Higher Rates till end 2023
3. Six to Twelve months of lagged economic impact
4. Already weak economic readings
5. Fertile soil to create recession and thus extension of the bear market

In addition, we also have the following bearish comments from some "experts" recently:-

1. Leon Cooperman: Stocks could plunge 22% from here. QT, Fed Tightening, High Oil Prices & Strong Dollar, will create a recession and the final bottom of the market will be about 35% below the 4,800 peak.

2. David Einhorn: Still bearish on stocks and bullish on inflation

3. Stan Druckenmiller: Once inflation goes above 5%, it has never come back down without the Fed Funds Rate exceeding the CPI. And the latest CPI report shows year-over-year inflation coming in at 6.4%

From "Extreme Value", we also had a very bearish article:-
1. Don't make the mistake of thinking this bear market is an average one
2. Prepare, Don't predict
3. Protect yourself by doing the following:-
a. Hold the stocks of great businesses
b. Sell unprofitable, cash-burning tech stocks and other trashy speculations
c. Hold plenty of cash
d. Hold gold and silver

Before we sell everything, I did managed to find some "bullish" news too:-

1. AAII: This ratio is at 60. Any reading above 50 means there are more bulls than bears. And this is the first time we've seen that happen since the bear market began in June last year. This reading is also the highest since November 2021. Sentiment is getting bullish and we still got a long way to go before one should worry.

2. China: UBS sees $87 Billion of China Retail Money ( from an army of 200m Retail Investors) supporting stocks

3. China: NPC Meeting this weekend may be catalyst for the China markets to move higher.

WRT to my trading activities, I did managed to unload some HK equities when it spiked about 800 points on Wednesday. "Sell First And Investigate Later" is my motto in this type of a trading market. If HK spikes again next week due to the NPC Meeting, I may probably unload more.

As for Malaysia, I have been trying to bottom-fish some counters that I think were oversold, to sell them on the 25% to 50% pf the retracement. As long as I'm not too greedy, I think that these could be quite profitable trades (hopefully).


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (45% from 45% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 60%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 40% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 29% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$80 from US$77 last week from US$76 two weeks ago;
Support: US$72; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 10%? 10m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 390m barrels left; Will replenish at US$67 to US$72?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Russia to curt 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1863 from US$1818 from US$1851;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$21 from US$21 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.07 from US$3.96 from US$4.13;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$50 from US$52 from US$52;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$22327 from US$23084 last week from US$23820 two weeks ago @ 6.57 AM on March 4, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Weaker: "59 Greed: from "69 Greed" last week from "70 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3970 from 4079 last week from 4090 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3900; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 17; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Bought Grab

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20568 from 20010 from 20720;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Traded Techtronic
d. Traded Geely
e. Traded CG Services
f. Sold 1/2 Sensetime
g. Sold Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3328 from 3267 from 3224;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3232 from 3282 from 3328;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27927 from 27453 from 27513;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1454 from 1457 from 1477:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to DNEX
b. Bought DRB Hicom
c. Bought Hap Seng
d. Bought Hexstar Industry
e. Traded Pharmaniaga
f. Traded Velesto
g. Sold 1/2 Citaglobal
h. Sold Gamuda


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 03 @ 9.05 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 136 from 136 last week from 135 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.32 from 3.28 from 3.31;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.68 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
b. Russia escalating Ukraine War?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Flat; 7.8497 from 7.8496 from 7.8446;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.48 from 4.44 from 4.43;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.91 from 6.96 from 6.88;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.76 from 105.19 from 104.51;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.96% from 3.74% from 3.52%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.86% from 4.81% from 4.52%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 90.67 from 90.98 from 91.08;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 73.96 from 74.17 from 74.27;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1145 from 816 from 530; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 12, 2023

alternative.jpg

TIARA (There Is A Real Alternative)?

The Two Year US Treasuries were yielding 5% recently and for once in a very long time, there is a real alternative for retirees to invest their money in, other than in Equities.

If Powell continues to create volatility in Equities with his tough talk, then the retirees (the people with money) may opt to lock in their money in US Treasuries, if they have not already done so. Why bother with Equities when you can get 5% risk free (almost)?

In addition, the recent failure of the two banks, Silvergate Bank (which caters to the Crypto crowd) and SVB (which cater to the Tech crowd), does not give people a lot of confidence that things are that stable.

Therefore, I'm starting to think that the markets will continue to be a Trading Market instead of becoming a new bull market, unless there's an end to the Ukraine War.

BTW, I'm actually quite disappointed that they are still using the current unemployment rate as one of the indicators that the economy is doing well and can absorb the current hikes in interest rates. Dont they know that 7m people have dropped out from the work-force over the past three years?

And if you are using the same denominator base as three years ago (pre-Covid), to calculate your unemployment rate, that unemployment rate would probably be doubled the existing unemployment rate.

And if that's the case, do you really need to increase interest rates that aggressively now to fight inflation? Wouldn't the current inflation rate slowly decline over the next year or so due to lower oil prices, smoother supply chains, less demand due to more unemployed people etc ? Why do you need to see an immediate drop in the current CPI, PPI etc? What happened to his transitory narrative?

WRT to my trading activities, I'm continuing to buy the dips. If any of the counters that I'm following is down > 7% on any day, it's very likely that I would be buying them for a quick profit on the technical retracement.

If my timing is off and if the counter continue to fall further, I have no problem holding them or even averaging down later, as I have already done my homework on that counter and have a rough feel of it's value.

My only concern is that I have a very bad habit of deploying all of my Cash very quickly. As mentioned before, I need to constantly remind myself that I need to survive until 2H 2023 before Powell would really blink and bring interest rates down. Or more likely, the US Businesses and Politicians, will make him blink. ( The US Presidential Election is not too far away on Nov 5, 2024).

As for the China and HK markets, there was no announcements on new stimulus so the players have decided to sell first. I continue to buy the dips and my trading activities are listed below.

For Malaysia, I've been trading various special situations and my activities are also listed below.

Finally, there was a good reminder for me on "Moneymaking Success" at Investor Place recently:-
No. 1: Allocate Your Assets Wisely
No. 2: Just Say “No” To Bad Risks
No. 3: Wade – Don’t Dive – Into the Market
Wonder whether it would stick in my mind?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (50% from 45% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 60%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 49% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 28% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 23% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$80 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$72; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 10%? 10m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 390m barrels left; Will replenish at US$67 to US$72?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Russia to curt 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1873 from US$1863 from US$1818;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; $21 from US$21 from US$21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.01 from US$4.07 from US$3.96;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$51 from US$50 from US$52;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$20235 from US$22327 last week from US$23084 two weeks ago @ 7.35 AM on March 11, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "24 Extreme Fear" from "59 Greed" last week from "69 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3862 from 3970 last week from 4079 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 18; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19320 from 20568 from 20010;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Bought Baidu
d. Bought China Unicom
e. Bought Yeahka
f. Added to JD.com
g. Added to Sensetime
h. Traded CG Services
i. Traded Geely
j. Sold Techtronic

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3231 from 3328 from 3267;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3177 from 3232 from 3282;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28144 from 27927 from 27453;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1433 from 1454 from 1457:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Astro
b. Bought Gamuda
c. Bought MUI Properties
d. Traded Hextar Industries
e. Traded Computer Forms
f. Sold 1/2 IGB
g. Sold Citaglobal
h. Sold Pharmaniaga


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 11 @ 8.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 135 from 136 last week from 136 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.35 from 3.32 from 3.28;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.68 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
b. Russia escalating Ukraine War?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Flat; 7.8499 from 7.8497 from 7.8496;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.52 from 4.48 from 4.44;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.91 from 6.91 from 6.96;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.63 from 104.76 from 105.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.70% from 3.96% from 3.74%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.59% from 4.86% from 4.81%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 90.03 from 90.67 from 90.98;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 73.44 from 73.96 from 74.17;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1379 from 1145 from 816; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 19, 2023

Fear.jpg

Can You Feel The Fear?

Over the past week, various friends and relatives, have been sending me videos of how the world would supposedly be ending, from the SVB episode.

Some of them were also telling me from their heart that we will be having another "Great Financial Crisis", having experienced a few bear markets themselves, over the past few decades.

As for myself, I think that some of the videos are just "fear-mongering". I hardly know the narrators in the videos and after a short while, I didnt bother to continue watching the videos.
If these guys were so smart, why spent time and energy making such videos? Why not just buy some leveraged or ODTE puts?

Having said that, the CNN Fear Greed Index is at 25 now (Extreme Fear). Therefore, a lot of people are expecting things to be very bad.

In addition, the US economy is not doing that well:-
1. More than 36% in the US have more credit card debt than emergency savings. This is the highest level on record since 2011.
2. More than four in 10 of those in their prime working years (age 27-58) in the US, reported having more credit card debt than short-term savings.
3. Only 43% of U.S. adults, would pay for an unexpected emergency expense from savings.
4. A record-high 25% would have to use credit card debt to pay for a $1,000 emergency expense.
5. Nearly seven in 10 (68%) worry they wouldn’t be able to cover their living expenses for just one month if they lost their primary source of income. That figure jumps to 85% for Gen Z’ers.

Anyway, I think that the SVB case is contained for the time being. And so is the CS episode. However, that does not mean that there would not be another few other bank runs as sentiment is very fragile now.

I think that the The Feds have learnt from the Subprime Crisis and they will have no problem throwing some "helicopter money" around, if things worsen from here.

Therefore, I think that the markets are a bit "oversold". There were also no surprises from the three inflation reports this week;-
1. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
2. Producer Price Index (PPI) and
3. February Retail Sales

And in China, I think that things will get better from here. They have reopened and the new team is in place to start addressing some of the issues. They have just cut the RRR yesterday.

The recent numbers from China are also getting better:-
1. China had a rise in new home prices in January - the first uptick for 12 months.
2. China also reported a rebound in consumer spending, industrial output and fixed asset investments.

For next week, everyone will be watching the FOMC Meeting to see whether we would be getting a 0, 25 or 50 bps, hike in interest rates. The consensus now is for a 25 bps hike but if we gent another few small bank runs over the next few days, then a 0 bps hike is not out of the question.

Finally, I still think that the Ukraine war will end sooner than later. And if that's the case, it would be a very strong catalyst for the market to shoot up. Would this trip by Xi to Moscow next week, be the face-saving way for Russia to end the Ukraine War? (Dont forget that China recently brokered the near impossible Iran-Saudi pact).


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (51% from 45% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets). I should lower my exposure to Equities.
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 60%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 47% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 31% (9 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 22% (14 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD and MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$66 from US$77 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 10%? 10m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 390m barrels left; Will replenish at US$67 to US$72?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Russia to curt 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235


2. Gold - Higher. US$1994 from US$1873 from US$1863;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; When should I sell?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; $23 from $21 from US$21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.90 from US$4.01 from US$4.07;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$50 from US$51 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$27750 from US$20235 last week from US$22327 two weeks ago @ 6.55 AM on March 18, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "25 Extreme Fear" from "24 Extreme Fear" last week from "59 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 3917 from 3862 last week from 3970 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 18; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Bought Prudential UK (PUK)
g. Sold GOOGL

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19519 from 19320 from 20568;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Bought Standard Chartered
d. Bought CK Asset
e. Added CG Services
f. Added Geely Auto
g. Traded AIA
h. Traded Baidu
i. Traded Techtronic
j. Traded ASM Pacific
k. Sold 1/2 Sensetime
l. Sold China Unicom
m. Sold Yeahka

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3251 from 3231 from 3328;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3183 from 3177 from 3232;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27334 from 28144 from 27927;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1412 from 1433 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought MYEG
b. Bought Reneuco
c. Bought Ambank
d. Added DNEX
e. Added Hextar Industries
f. Sold 1/3 Destini
g. Sold Astro


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 17 @ 1.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 133 from 135 last week from two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.34 from 3.35 from 3.32;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Russia escalating Ukraine War?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8496 from 7.8499 from 7.8497;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.48 from 4.52 from 4.48;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.34 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.87 from 6.91 from 6.91;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.75 from 104.63 from 104.76;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.44% from 3.70% from 3.96%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.85% from 4.59% from 4.86%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 89.91 from 90.03 from 90.67;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 73.37 from 73.44 from 73.96;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1560 from 1379 from 1145; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 26, 2023

Banking Crisis.png

Banking Crisis ?

As mentioned last week, most of my friends and relatives, are afraid that the markets are going to collapse (a good contrarian indicator) from a "Banking Crisis".

And as expected, most of the markets went up for the week.

As for myself, I still do not think that the markets will collapse from the current Banking Crisis as I believed that the Central Banksters have learnt from the Subprime Crisis.

If you recalled what happened then, they flooded the markets with close to US$16t. And they would have no problem flooding the markets this time, if the need arises.

The following is from 'Hypergrowth Investing", which gives a good explaination on what the Central Banksters have been doing, in response to the recent string of bank failures:

1. The U.S. government has said it will possibly provide insurance for all deposits over $250,000 at all banks if systemic risks emerge

2. The U.S. central bank created an emergency funding facility for banks

3. The Swiss central bank poured $50 billion into Credit Suisse

4. Central banks across North America and Europe announced expansion of their collective emergency funding facilities

5. The Bank of Canada has paused its rate-hike cycle

6. The ECB has adopted a “wait-and-see” approach to its rate-hike cycle.

7. The Fed hiked interest rates by only 25 bps

8. Governments and central banks across the globe are swiftly riding to the rescue of troubled banks. Operation “Save the Banks” has begun. Operation “Save the Economy” has begun!

As for my trading activities, I did managed to sell some of my positions when the markets spiked up.

My exposure to Equities is on the higher end and I should bring it down a bit or hedge it with some Inverse ETFs.

For next week, I think that it would be the "same old, same old".

If the markets are strong due to the fund managers spending their cash in advance, of the new money from the new month, then I may sell some more Equities.

If the markets are very weak due to the fall-out from the current banking situation, I may go shopping if the dip is steep enough ie. > 7% drop in a single day as I still think that it's a "Trading Market".


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (46% from 51% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 45% (15 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 29% (14 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$69 from US$66 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Russia to curt 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1981 from US$1994 from US$1873;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; $23 from $23 from $21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.07 from US$3.90 from US$4.01;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$50 from US$50 from US$51;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$27380 from US$27750 last week from US$20235 two weeks ago @ 7.15 AM on March 25, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "33 Fear" from "25 Extreme Fear" last week from "24 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago. viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 3971 from 3917 last week from 3862 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 18; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Sold Prudential UK (PUK)
g. Traded Block (SQ)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19915 from 19519 from 19320;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Traded China Mobile
d. Sold 1/3 Geely Auto
e. Sold Sensetime
f. Sold AIA
g. Sold CK Asset
h. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3251 from 3231 from 3328;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3183 from 3177 from 3232;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27334 from 28144 from 27927;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1412 from 1433 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to MYEG
b. Sold some DNEX


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 24 @ 5.05 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 130 from 133 last week from 135 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.32 from 3.34 from 3.35;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.08 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Flat; 7.8497 from 7.8496 from 7.8499;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.42 from 4.48 from 4.52;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.33 from 1.34 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.87 from 6.87 from 6.91;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 102.48 from 103.75 from 104.63;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.44% from 3.70% from 3.96%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.85% from 4.59% from 4.86%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 90.47 from 89.91 from 90.03;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 73.71 from 73.37 from 73.44;


Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1484 from 1560 from 1379; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ April 2, 2023

April.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It's a new month again so new funds should be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets early next week unless the Fund Managers have already spent the money in advance this week for 1Q Window Dressing.

Anyway, the markets were grinding higher this week and the following are some of the reasons that I've seen:-
1. 1Q Window Dressing
2. Perceived Banking Sector Stability, after SVB and CS.
3. There has never been a 12-month period, following a midterm election, in which stocks were down (going back to 1950)
4. Contrarian Indicator AAII Bull Ratio fell 32 percentage points in just 5 weeks. That's the largest five-week drop at any point over the past decade.
5. CPI has fallen from 9.1% last June to 6% last month.
6. The PCE increased 0.3% in February, which is less than the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate.

Even Michael Burry admitted that he was wrong for directing traders to “sell” ahead of the Fed meeting. He even congratulated dip buyers for pushing stocks higher than he anticipated. So listen to "experts" at your own risk!

And if you are feeling a bit confident now, let me remind you that there's still US$620 billion of unrealized losses on the books of the US banks. So there could still be some bank runs going forward. Does that mean that it's safe to buy the bigger US banks now?

As for myself, I have taken the opportunity to unload some China Big Techs this week, when they spiked on the JD.com news.

I still see no evidence that this "Trading Market" will morph to a "Buy & Forget" market so I will continue to trade the markets.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (46% from 46% last week from 51% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 44% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 25% (14 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$76 from US$69 last week from US$66 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Russia to curt 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1987 from US$1981 from US$1994;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from $23 from $23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$4.08 from US$4.07 from US$3.90;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$50 from US$50 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$ 28584 from US$27380 last week from US$27750 two weeks ago @ 6.45 AM on April 1, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "49 Neutral" from "33 Fear" last week from "25 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 4109 from 3971 last week from 3917 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 18; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Traded Block (SQ)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20400 from 19915 from 19519;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Bought Fosun
d. Bought Yeahka
e. Traded Sensetime
f. Traded China Life
g. Sold 1/2 Meituan
h. Sold 1/2 JD
i. Sold Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3273 from 3251 from 3231;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3259 from 3183 from 3177;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28041 from 27334 from 28144;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1423 from 1412 from 1433:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 2/3 MYEG
b. Traded Hektar Industries


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Apr 1 @ 7.05 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 132 from 130 last week from 133 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.32 from 3.32 from 3.34;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8526 from 7.8497 from 7.8496;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.41 from 4.42 from 4.48;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.33 from 1.33 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.87 from 6.87 from 6.87;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 102.29 from 102.48 from 103.75;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.47% from 3.44% from 3.70%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.04% from 3.85% from 4.59%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.82 from 90.47 from 89.91;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.55 from 73.71 from 73.37;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1403 from 1484 from 1560; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ April 9, 2023

earnings.png

1Q US Earnings

US 1Q Earnings will be arriving soon and the following are some comments from Investor Place:-
1. For Q1 2023, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -6.6%.
2. If -6.6% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest earnings decline reported by the index since Q2 2020 (-31.8%)
3. Given the continuing concerns in the market about bank liquidity and a possible broader economic recession, did analysts lower EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter?
4. FactSet goes on to point out that analysts lowered EPS estimates for the quarter by 6.3% (to $50.75 from $54.13) from December 31 to March 30.
5. For context, during the past five years, the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during a quarter has been just 2.8%. So, these cuts are significant.
6. The question is “are they significant enough?”
7. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO doesn’t believe so: "Given the events of the past few weeks, we think guidance is looking more and more unrealistic and equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates ahead of any hard data changes". We shall see in due course.

So where do we go from here? I still think that this is a "Trading Market". Almost everyone around me still thinks that the world will be ending. Therefore, I would have no problem continuing to trade the markets as markets tend to crash only on euphoria, not fear.

Having said that, I just noticed that the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" is now at 57 and it has risen from 33 just two weeks ago. Therefore, people are not as bearish as I thought that they were so I should be a bit more careful. As mentioned many times, my objective is to survive until 2H 2023 and to conserve some of my bullets in the meantime.

Anyway, are you being pessimistic about the markets like so many people around me or are you just being cautious? There's a big difference. Being pessimistic means that you are not looking out for opportunities while waiting for the world to end. Being cautious means that you are still hunting for opportunities but will only bite when there's a huge margin of safety. So what are you?

Hypergrowth Investing also had a bullish article recently:-
"5 Reasons Tech Stocks Are Sprinting Into a New Bull Market"
#1: Inflation Is Crashing
#2: The Labor Market Is Cracking
#3: Financial Stress Is Spiking
#4: A Fed Pause Is Inevitable
#5: Earnings Are Impressively Resilient

Finally, about US$350b have flowed into the Money Market in the four weeks ending April 5. This pushed Money Market assets to a record of $5.25t. That's a lot of fire-power and if the markets does crash, I would think that a lot of this cash on the sidelines, will find it's way back into the markets very quickly.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (47% from 46% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 45% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 30% (16 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$80 from US$76 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. Russia and Saudi, to cut 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2024 from US$1987 from US$1981;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$25 from US$24 from $23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.01 from US$4.08 from US$4.07;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$50 from US$50 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$27835 from US$ 28584 last week from US$27380 two weeks ago @ 4.55 PM on April 7, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "57 Greed" from "49 Neutral" last week from "33 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 4105 from 4109 last week from 3971 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 18; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Sold Block (SQ)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20331 from 20400 from 19915;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Added to Meituan
d. Added to JD
e. Sold Sensetime

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3273 from 3251 from 3231;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3328 from 3259 from 3183;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27518 from 28041 from 27334;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1423 from 1412 from 1433:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. Bought Berjaya Foods
c. Bought Press Metal
d. Added to Destini
e. Added to MYEG
f. Added to DNEX
g. Sold 1/2 Hektar Industries


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Apr 7 @ 4.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 132 from 132 last week from 130 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.31 from 3.32 from 3.32;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8498 from 7.8526 from 7.8497;

a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.40 from 4.41 from 4.42;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.33 from 1.33 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.88 from 6.87 from 6.87;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.65 from 102.29 from 102.48;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.31% from 3.47% from 3.44%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.84% from 4.04% from 3.85%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.89 from 92.82 from 90.47;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.84 from 75.55 from 73.71;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1560 from 1403 from 1484; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ April 16, 2023

Buy,Sell Hold.jpg

Buy, Sell or Hold?

It was a quiet week except for the jumping of the US Bank Shares on Friday.


If you are a Pessimist, you would like the following:-

1. Dr. Doom Roubini mentioned that the Banking crisis could cement a hard landing

2. Jeremy Grantham mentioned that "other things will break" and warns of more financial chaos

3. Jeremy Siegel says he's shocked that the Fed has overlooked the drop in bank lending. Banking chaos and tighter credit, could spur a big fall in US economic activity. He expects stocks to struggle in the next 6 months and lifted the odds of a recession this year.

4. CNBC reported the following dire statistics:-
a. Almost six in 10 U.S. adults are living paycheck-to-paycheck.
b. More than half of Americans (53%) say they do not have an emergency fund, while 40% of those who do, have less than $10,000.


If you are an Optimist, you would like the following:-

1. Investor Place had a bullish article on the "Fed Pivot"
a. Every single time the Fed has paused its rate-hike cycle over the past 40 years, stocks rallied over the next few months, with returns often running north of 20%. This time will not prove different.
b. A Fed pivot is coming. So, too, is a big stock market rally.

2. Investor Place also had another bullish article on the “December Low Indicator”
a. When stocks violate their December low within the first quarter of the following year, they usually stumble in that year.
b. Conversely, when stocks don’t violate their December low within the following year’s first quarter, stocks usually soar.
c. This December Low Indicator has a very impressive track record. Going back to 1950, whenever stocks didn’t violate their December lows within the first quarter of the following year, they rallied 94% of the time, with an average annual return of nearly 20%!
d. In December 2022, the S&P 500’s closing low was 3,783. The lowest we got in the first quarter of 2023 was 3,808, on the third trading day of the year. After that, the lowest we got was 3,855 in early March.
e. The S&P 500 never closed below its December 2022 low in the first quarter of 2023.
f. Therefore, history says that stocks have a 94% chance of rallying about 20% this year.

As for myself, I continue to sell my counters that were up this week. My exposure to Equities has dropped to 41% now, from about 47% last week. I continue to think that it's a Trading Market.

I also noticed that the CNN Greed & Fear Index is now at "67 Greed" and it was at "Fear 33" just three weeks ago. Therefore, it's a good time to lighthen my exposure to Equities as they climb "the wall of worry".

It's also timely to remind myself that by the time I'm no longer afraid to buy, prices probably would have doubled.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (41% from 47% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 48% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 27% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$83 from US$80 last week from US$76 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. Russia and Saudi, to cut 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2018 from US$2024 last week from US$1987 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Sold SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.12 from US$4.01 from US$4.08;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$50 from US$50 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$30491 from US$27835 last week from US$ 28584 two weeks ago @ 8.07 AM on April 15, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "67 Greed" from "57 Greed" last week from "49 Neutral" two weeks ago from "33 Fear" three weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4138 from 4105 last week from 4109 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 18; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Sold SLV (Silver ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20439 from 20331 from 20400;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Bought Baidu
d. Sold 1/2 Country Garden Services
e. Sold Fosun

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3338 from 3273 from 3251;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3303 from 3328 from 3259;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28493 from 27518 from 28041;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1435 from 1423 from 1412:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. Added to Hap Seng Consolidated
c. Sold 1/3 Destini
d. Sold Berjaya Foods
e. Sold Press Metal
f. Sold MYEG
g. Sold AMMB


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Apr 15 @ 3.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 134 from 132 last week from 132 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.31 from 3.31 from 3.32;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.11 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weak; 7.8500 from 7.8498 from 7.8526;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.40 from 4.40 from 4.41;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.33 from 1.33 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.87 from 6.88 from 6.87;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.29 from 101.65 from 102.29;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.52% from 3.31% from 3.47%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.10% from 3.84% from 4.04%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.38 from 91.89 from 92.82;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.28 from 74.84 from 75.55;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1435 from 1560 from 1403; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ April 23, 2023

Sell_in_May.png

Sell in May & Go Away?

The US markets were treading water for the week while it was quite weak in HK & China towards the end of the week.


If you think that it's that time of the year to be selling then the following bearish articles will

support your case:-

1. US foreclosure filings jumped 22% in 1Q compared to the same period a year ago. While still below pre-pandemic levels, foreclosure activity has increased on an annual basis for 23 straight months.

2. Jeff Clark: When the VIX is low, it’s time to go. Whenever the VIX dropped below 20, the S&P declined almost immediately thereafter.

3. Citi: Stocks face hit as US$800b stimulus to fade

4. Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist, FS Investments:-
a. There's no reason to wait. Sell US stocks now before the S&P 500 tanks by over 20%
b. The benchmark index is up about 8% so far in 2023 on hopes the Federal Reserve will soon end interest-rate increases.
c. This is a golden opportunity to use this bear market rally to de-risk in advance of potentially very painful losses over the next six, nine, 12 month


However, there were also some bullish articles this week:-

1. Tom Lee: New Bull Market has started:-
a. Bearish investors are now "trapped" because the possibility of a downturn has already come and gone
b. S&P 500 has now spent more than 25 weeks above its 200-week moving average. Since 1950, there are zero instances of the S&P 500 making a new low once it has recovered above the 200-week moving average and spent at least 15 weeks there.

2. Bank of America: Any of these scenarios could mean upside for stocks:-
a. An end to the Russia-Ukraine war
b. An increase of immigration in the US and ChatGPT's deflationary impact on the workforce
c. An arms race in Big Tech spending
d. No recession
e. Investors once again viewing stocks as a better alternative to bonds

3. The rare "Coppock Curve" triggered a buy signal:=
a. It was developed by Edwin Coppock to signal long-term stock market trends and specifically, to identify when bear markets are turning into new bull markets.
b. Momentum Oscillator; Measure medium- and long-term momentum trends in the stock market and tracks changes in those measurements.
c. When medium- and long-term momentum rises on a persistent basis, the Coppock Curve triggers a buy signal.

4. Investor Place: 3 Big Reasons a Huge Rally Is Right Around the Corner:-
a. Inflation Is Crashing
b. Inflation Will Keep Crashing
c. The Labor Market Is Cracking


As for myself, I was selling at the beginning of the week but was buying at the end of the week when prices were quite attractive.

As mentioned, my objective is to last till 2H 2023 (when I think that interest rates will start to decline). So far so good...

If interest rates will to drop only in 4Q, 2023, then my new objective is to last another 4 months. That means that maybe I should lighthen up my exposure to Equities for the time being over the next few weeks.

In the meantime, you can feel that there's not much support in the markets and the path of least resistance, seems to be downwards. However, I'm reluctant to initiate any short position in case it gaps up on the low volume.

It's probably time to "Sell In May And Go Away"...


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (42% from 41% last week from 47% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market

b. HK: 48% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 23% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 28% (13 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$78 from US$83 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. Russia and Saudi, to cut 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1993 from US$2018 last week from US$2024 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Sold SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.98 from US$4.12 from US$4.01;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$51 from US$50 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$27364 from US$30491 last week from US$27835 two weeks ago @ 5.35 AM on April 22, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "65 Greed" from "67 Greed" last week from "57 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4134 from 4138 last week from 4105 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20043 from 20439 from 20331;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Bought Alibaba
d. Bought Tencent
e. Bought Sensetime
f. Added to Vitasoy
g. Sold 1/3 Meituan
h. Sold 1/2 Geely
i. Sold 1/2 Standard Chartered
j. Sold Yeahka

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3301 from 3338 from 3273;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3307 from 3303 from 3328;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28564 from 28493 from 27518;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1422 from 1435 from 1423:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. Bought MYEG


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 21 @ 4.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 134 from 134 last week from 132 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.32 from 3.31 from 3.31;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.10 from 1.11 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8471 from 7.8500 from 7.8498;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.44 from 4.40 from 4.40;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.34 from 1.33 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.89 from 6.87 from 6.88;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 101.63 from 101.29 from 101.65;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.57% from 3.52% from 3.31%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.18% from 4.10% from 3.84%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.83 from 92.38 from 91.89;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.76 from 75.28 from 74.84;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1432 from 1435 from 1560; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ April 30, 2023

bears.jpg

So Where Are The Bears?

THE US markets were very strong and suddenly, all the bears have disappeared. I also didnt even see a single recycled smart-sounding bearish article this week.

Where are all the Dr Dooms, Dr. Glooms, Super-Hurricane Storm Chasers, End Of the World Preppers etc? Just a few weeks ago, they were crawling all over the place, frighthening you, telling you how bad things are, how many more banks will collapse and how much you would be losing if you are still in the stock-markets.

Guess what? If you have listemed to this bunch of @#&$%, you would have missed one of the biggest rally in recent times.

As mentioned, I saw only see bullish articles this week and the following are some for your reference:-

1. Daily Wealth: Commitment Of Traders
a. The COT reading has only been this bearish three other times since 2010.
b. Those cases included the two best buying opportunities over that period, the near-bear market of 2011 and the 2020 pandemic crash.
c. Futures traders are incredibly bearish today despite solid stock performance over the past six months. That means the contrarian bet is that this stock rally will continue.

2. Bank of America: Bullish signals are flashing that suggest the stock market is headed for a 'summer rip'

3. U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 53.5 this month. That was the highest level since last May and followed a final reading of 52.3 in March.

4. Bank of America: 10 reasons why investors should own stocks right now despite fears of an imminent recession
a. Market sentiment is extremely bearish.
b. Recession is "very expected."
c. The Fed can ease up on interest rates.
d. There's trillions of dollars of "dry powder" on the sideline.
e. Cyclical stock sectors are purged.
f. The Japan Factory Automation Index hit a trough.
g. Equity risk premium should fall.
h. The economy will see productivity gains.
i Earnings should be healthy.
j. The market is headed into historically strong-return quarters.

5. Business Insider: 7 signals that suggest a 'bullish cocktail' is about to power a surprise rally in the stock market
a. Strong January, strong year
b. A big January after a down year
c. Staying above December low
d. Back-to-back quaterly gains
e. A strong first five days
f. Quarterly gains of more than 7%
g. Rare Zweig Breadth Thrust

6. Ryan Detrick, Carson Group's Chief Market Strategist: No recession call backed up by the fact that the economy has added nearly six million jobs over the past 15 months

As for myself, I dont really know where the markets are heading. What I do know is that markets normally do not crash when there's so much fear around. (Almost everyone around me is an "expert" that the world will end soon). BTW, even in the ICU markets like HK & China, there were even signs of life this week.

So I will still assume the following until further notice:-
1, It's still a "Trading Market"
2. Being "cautiously bullish" is the right path for the time being and
3. Having a big dose of disdain for the Dr. Dooms, Dr. Glooms, Super-Hurricane Storm Chasers, End of the World Preppers etc. is the right attitude, (If you still want to listen to them, apply a huge discount).

For next week, everyone will be watching the FOMC Meetings on May 2 & 3 and expecting another 25 bps hike in interest rates. I think that it's a sheer waste of time yet the talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg, can still spend hours talking about this subject thereafter.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (43% from 42% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 44% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 29% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 28% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$78 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. Russia and Saudi, to cut 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1999 from US$1993 from US$2018;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.90 from US$3.98 from US$4.12;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$52 from US$51 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$29346 from US$27364 last week from US$30491 two weeks ago @ 5.38 AM on April 29, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "60 Greed" from "65 Greed" last week from "67 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4169 from 4134 last week from 4138 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Bought Cloudflare (NET)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20043 from 20439 from 20331;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Added to ASM Pacific
d. Sold 1/2 Sensetime
e. Sold Tencent
f. Traded China Merchant Bank

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3301 from 3338 from 3273;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 28564 from 28493 from 27518;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1422 from 1435 from 1423:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 28 @ 2.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 135 from 134 last week from 134 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.34 from 3.32 from 3.31;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.10 from 1.10 from 1.11;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8503 from 7.8471 from 7.8500;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.46 from 4.44 from 4.40;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.91 from 6.89 from 6.87;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.49 from 101.50 from 101.63;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.43% from 3.57% from 3.52%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.02% from 4.18% from 4.10%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.13 from 91.83 from 92.38;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.04 from 74.76 from 75.28;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1581 from 1432 from 1435; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ May 7, 2023

banking crisis.jpg

US Banking Crash?

Over the past few days, you may have read some of those doomsday articles about the coming collapse of the US Financial Industry.

In some of those articles, the "experts" were talking about 200 more US banks that are at risk of failure, even if only half of their uninsured depositors decide to withdraw their funds.

Consequently, the share price of some of the Regional banks collapsed on Thursday, especially Pacwest Bancorp.

However, on the next day, the share price of Pacwest Bancorp was up 80%! And the Regional Bank ETF, KRE, was the best performing ETF on Friday, up 6.4%.

This is a good reminder for myself that although it's good to listen to the "experts", there's no need to be too carried away with their pessimism.

Some of them may also have ulterior motives when writing those doomsday articles ie. they already shorted the markets.

If one does not know how to think independently and have to rely entirely on what the "experts" are saying, then it's better that one not invest in the stock-markets.

The place is full of sharks and by the time you know that you are the patsie, they would have already swallowed you alive.

The above is not to boast of my current "expertise" but is from tuition fees, losses, being cheated & scammed in the stock-markets over the past few decades.

And if I'm telling you that I'm now an "expert" after a few decades of investing, then I'm lying to you as I'm still learning about new scams and ways of cheating in the stock-markets.

However, what I do have now, is a bit more independent thinking, some skeptism and more business knowledge.

Coming back to the so-called coming "US Banking Crisis", IMHO, I think that there would be a few more banks collapse. However, I dont think that it will be a systemic issue nor will it lead to a full-blown collapse of the financial industry.

I think that the Central Banksters have learnt from the "Subprime Crisis" and will not hesitate to take any pre-emptive strike, including throwing "helicopter money" again thru QE if the banking situation worsens.

I think taht they now have some buffer ie. 400 bps of interest rates that can be lowered as well as another US$12t that can be printed globally.

I'm not saying that a "Black Swan" will not appear. I'm just saying that as long as one is cautious, diversified, monitoring one's risks etc, one should be able to come out of this episode relatively unscathed. As mentioned, the right attituder is "cautiously bullish" rather than "doomsday pessimism".

Anyway, for those who loved to read some doomsday articles, I have the following for you:-
1. Stanley Druckenmiller: On America's Debt Crisis - "It's Like Watching A Horror Movie Unfold"
2. Nouriel Roubini: Sell bonds and equities as the US Federal Reserve is forced to keep interest rates high to fight sticky inflation.

For next week, there's the Biden-Mc Carthy meeting on May 9th. I'm not expecting much from that meeting. As in the past, the US has no choice but to raise their debt ceiling. I will take this meeting as a non-event unless Mc Carthy wants to be a hero.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- High (45% from 43% last week from 42% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 40% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 28% (13 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off (Every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$71 from US$77 last week from US$78 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. China Reopening? +5m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Will replenish over a few years?
f. Will Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
h. Russia and Saudi, to cut 500,000 bpd
i. UAE leaving OPEC?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2025 from US$1999 from US$1993;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$26 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.89 from US$3.90 from US$3.98;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$54 from US$52 last week from US$51 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$29548 from US$29346 last week from US$27364 two weeks ago @ 6.12 AM on May 6, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower: "59 Greed" from "60 Greed" last week from "65 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4136 from 4169 last week from 4134 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 23;
f. Bought Block (SQ)
f. Traded Chegg
g. Traded Estee Lauder

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20049 from 20439 from 20331;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 18500; 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22470; 31200; 33
c. Bought Tencent
d. Sold Sensetime
e. Sold L'Occitane

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3335 from 3301 from 3338;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 29158 from 28564 from 28493;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1431 from 1422 from 1435:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1390; 1375;
b. Added to DNEX
c. Traded Destini


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on May 5 @ 10.45 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 134 from 135 last week from 134 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.35 from 3.34 from 3.32;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.10 from 1.10 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8591 from 7.8503 from 7.8471;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.44 from 4.46 from 4.44;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.33 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.92 from 6.91 from 6.89;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.05 from 101.49 from 101.50;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. When will it rebound?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 3.44% from 3.43% from 3.57%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.92% from 4.02% from 4.18%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.18 from 92.13 from 91.83;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.36 from 75.04 from 74.76;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1545 from 1581 from 1432; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics