Market Timing 07 (Nov 22 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Don’t wait for stock market capitulation – because it isn’t coming

by Ken Fisher

World stocks’ peak-to-trough drop is 26.1 per cent in US dollars – both historically minor bear markets. That holds for eurozone stocks’ 24.8 per cent drop in euros.

Some bear markets did not end in capitulation such as in 1966 and 1982. The current situation looks like another example. Why? The usual safe havens do not seem safe.

US Treasuries have fallen 14.5 per cent this year in US dollar terms. UK gilts are down 13.8 per cent in pounds. German bunds are down 15 per cent in euros.

I doubt long rates rise materially from here – but if that is your expectation, why swop stocks for bonds?

Why pile into cash when it pays little and will be worth far less soon, if today’s inflation rates persist?

Gold is down 13.6 per cent and far exceeded global stocks’ 3.1 per cent drop over the same span.

Bitcoin plunged 76.6 per cent in US dollar terms from November 2021’s high till November 2022’s low.

Real estate offers little safety, given mortgage rates’ rise has hit demand globally in an overall high-price environment.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... snt-coming

[behappyalways]

Stocks Have "Considerably More Downside" & Commodities Have A "Brand New Tailwind" In 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock ... lwind-2023

[winston]

Stocks Could Rise Another 10%-Plus by Early 2023

by Brett Eversole

Today’s bearish sentiment tells us the current rally can continue. And stocks could rise another 10%-plus by early 2023.

Most folks will miss it. They’ll assume the next leg of the bear market is around the corner. But with sentiment this negative, there’s a good chance they’re wrong.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2022/12/12/ ... arly-2023/

[behappyalways]

Chart Alert! When $AAPL breaks this trend line, not only could it fall to $85 but the stock market would easily make new 52 week lows.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GarethSolowa ... 0217174016

Will the S&P 500 see a break in trend? ChartMaster@CarterBWorth says it's inevitable the $SPX will get to 3818, but that's just a stop along the way on the down train.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCFastMone ... 4276279303

[winston]

Stocks: Why the bear market hasn't bottomed yet, according to one top forecaster

by Brian Sozzi

No bear market has ever bottomed before the recession started.

"We don't necessarily need to see the full breadth and depth of the recession — we need to see the start of it."

Emanuel believes the stock market will bottom in the first half of 2023 as economic and earnings forecasts on Wall Street better reflect the downturn. The veteran strategist then sees stocks rallying into the end of 2023, with the S&P 500 ultimately reaching about 4,150.

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-b ... ?.tsrc=372

[behappyalways]

Markets Have "Considerably More Downside" In 2023: Mark Spiegel
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/marke ... rk-speigel

[winston]

There Are Signs the Next 2 Weeks May Be Turbulent

by Jeff Clark

McClellan Oscillators for the NYSE and the Nasdaq (NYMO and NAMO)…

Both indicators closed in extremely overbought territory last Friday.

This is the sixth time in the past year that both the NYMO and the NAMO have been above 60 at the same time.

Folks who are looking to put money to work in the market right now – for fear of missing out on a new bull market – should probably consider holding off for a bit.

We’ll likely have a better buying opportunity in the weeks ahead.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/01/20/ ... turbulent/

[winston]

History Shows Stocks Are Likely to Rise in 2023 (it could be a banner year)

by Brett Eversole

Stocks rarely fall for two years in a row

That's because bear markets can't last forever... even if it feels like they will in the moment.

History shows stocks are likely to rise in 2023... And it could be a banner year.

You'll still want to wait for the trend before going all-in. But that time is approaching quickly. Make sure you're ready to act when it comes.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/01/23/ ... nner-year/

[winston]

U.S. Stock Market Has Plenty of Reasons to Rally After Fed’s Decision

By Francesco Casarella

After a tumultuous 2022, many investors are waiting on the sidelines, holding cash and waiting to enter

With risk-off sentiment dominating and plenty of liquidity on the sidelines, markets could rally in the second half of the week

We can see above that several funds are at record highs not seen for years (curiously, they were also at very high levels in 2009 as the market recovered from the subprime bubble).

The buyback announcements made by various companies in January could help support prices.

Source: Investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/us-s ... s_headline

[winston]

If You’ve Been Waiting to Put Money to Work, The Time is Now

by Brett Eversole

f the Fed is buying bonds, that’s additional easing. That means money is looser than the effective fed-funds rate shows.

And if the Fed is selling down its balance sheet – like it is right now – it means money is tighter than the effective rate shows.

The proxy rate is over 6% right now. That’s darn close to the seasonally adjusted inflation rate of 6.4% for December.

The Fed knows this. So given the high proxy rate and the fact that inflation growth is slowing down… the central bank’s rate hikes could be over.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/02/02/ ... me-is-now/