China - Economic Data & News 20 (Nov 22 - Aug 23)

[winston]

Daiwa Adds CN 2023E GDP Growth to 4%, Forecasts RMB to Reach 7 Mark against USD by Yr-end

China's radical shift in its pandemic-prevention policy has induced a fundamental change in the macro backdrop for 2023, Daiwa commented in a research report.

Given that China is the first economy to experience a cyclical slowdown since 2021, the broker lifted the 2023E GDP growth for the country from 2.5% to 4%.

Also, in light of the persisting pandemic outbreaks in mainland China, Daiwa forecast China's private consumption to remain relatively stagnant in the first half of 2023, before potentially seeing a material rebound in the second half of the year.

Related News: Apple Reportedly Gradually Resumes iPhone Production in CN

RMB was anticipated to appreciate against USD in 1H23 and may recede to the 7 mark in 2H23 once there is more clarity on the Federal Reserve's path on interest rate hikes, the report added.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... t-news/HK6

[behappyalways]

戰狼掌門人出爐! 駐美"秦剛"接中國外長 美重申保持雙方溝通管道暢通 秦剛:美中關係不是零和遊戲 美中軍機南海上空"鬥機"雙方互播30秒影片│記者 葉俐緯│【國際大現場】20230102│三立新聞台
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h-9F-N-1oOk

[behappyalways]

China’s economy has ‘potential for recovery’ in second quarter, expert says
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/video/chin ... 11915.html

[behappyalways]

Medics work while hooked up to IV drips during Covid-19 surge in China
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sImNMx5e6eM


一肚子火忍很久！中國突解封沒訂單 重慶藥廠欠薪裁員 員工暴動怒砸機具.痛毆負責人 演變成萬人警民衝突│記者 林羿含│【國際大現場】20230109│三立新聞台
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2CVUplOdpYQ

[winston]

China local debt may hit 3.8tn yuan

China is considering a record high 3.8 trillion yuan (HK$4.4 trillion) local debt quota this year and 18 local governments are expected to issue over 1 trillion yuan bonds in the first quarter of this year, with nearly 90 percent for special projects.

Officials are also mulling a deficit target of around 3 percent of the gross domestic product for 2023, the people said. That would be higher than last year's goal of 2.8 percent, yet smaller than 3.6 percent in 2020.

Local governments have already built a massive special bond stockpile on infrastructure investments, with a US$2 trillion (HK$15.6 trillion) maturity wall looming in coming years.

Chinese banks extended 1.4 trillion yuan in new yuan loans last month, up from November and beating analysts' expectations, according to data released by the People's Bank of China. The whole year reached 21.31 trillion yuan.

UBS expects China's growth will be 4.9 percent this year while DBS believes it will be 4 percent as growth will likely remain subdued in the first half.

Source: AP

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... 3.8tn-yuan

[winston]

China PBOC says it will avoid flooding economy with stimulus

China will avoid unleashing massive monetary stimulus into the economy this year as it seeks to strike a balance between boosting growth, creating jobs and maintaining price stability.

To aid the recovery, economists see the PBOC keeping monetary policy loose for at least the next few months.

Authorities are studying additional structural tools to help stabilize the real estate market. That would include arrangements to support the delivery of housing projects, along with loans for rental housing and bond financing for private firms.

China’s structural loan programs amounted to around 6.4 trillion yuan as of the end of last year, and are currently focused on lending to small firms and sectors in low-carbon development and technology innovation. That compares with 214 trillion yuan in total yuan loans outstanding.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/651727

[behappyalways]

大陸去年CPI年增2%.低於目標 內需疲軟｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞 20230113@tvbsfocus
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xOV4IgSYIdw

[behappyalways]

China's population starts shrinking, first drop since 1960
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/c ... drop-1960s

China reports first population decline in 6 decades, with birth rate at record low in 2022
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6Z0romT2pQ8

Even for Beiiing, tonight's numbers were a real doozy. Official 2022 GDP growth = 3%. Q4 = 2.9%.
Reality?
Our proxy indicators suggest GDP growth was <2% for 2022. Q4 was a clear contraction.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBo ... 4545307648

[winston]

Confident tones in bruised Beijing

Foreign investors should be guided into the advanced manufacturing and services sectors, as well as pursuing developments in new technologies, energy conservation and environmental protection.

It approved 1.48 trillion yuan (HK$1.71 trillion) worth of fixed asset investment projects last year, nearly double the value from the previous year.

A total of 109 projects were approved last year and they were predominantly in transportation, energy, water conservation, and information technology industries.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ed-Beijing

[behappyalways]

Chinese reluctant to have children as China reports first population fall in 61 years
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IFzs36J_EoE


China Now Grows More Corn Than Rice
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/c ... -corn-rice