Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 16, 2022

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

expect.jpg

Expect The Unexpected

On Thursday, the Dow turnaround from -500 to +800, a 1300 points rise in one night.
Last Monday and Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up about 5.65% in two days. In HK, it was up 1000 points last Wednesday.

If one was shorting the market, one would have been slaughtered during those episodes.

So in this type of volatile market, it's better to "expect the unexpected".

Who does not already know that interest rates are being hiked to combat inflation, that there's a possible global recession, European energy crisis or even a nuclear war?

And in the meantime, there's about US$23t sitting on the sidelines waiting and watching. All you need is a strong catalyst and these dry gunpowder will be deployed very quickly.

My strategy lately has been to trade the markets. Maybe it's time now to hold the positions longer, as my purchase price are now at the lower end of the trading range (assuming that the bottom doesn't falls off).

The recent two huge jump in the markets signify that it's no longer a one way bet downwards. The shorts and algos have taken note of it and will probably not be so aggressive in shorting the markets anymore.

All we need now is a strong catalyst before the markets take off eg. China Reopening, Ukraine War ending, Venezuela Oil Sanctions lifting, Interest Rates stabilizing, USD dropping etc.

In addition, the Mid-Term Election is only 3 weeks away and I'm sure that the Biden Administration will be doing whatever it takes, to ensure that the voters are feeling happy, going into the election.

For next week, I would be watching the following:-
1. 3Q US earnings season
2. Policy address after the unveiling of the new China leaders


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Monitor (45% from 37% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 9% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 42% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 30% (9 Counters); To Focus On Large Caps & ETFs / Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Heavy exposure to Asian Tech eg. Alibaba, Tencent, JD, Baidu and Meituan, 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF) and Grab
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Investing.com on Oct 15 @ 8.35 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$86 from US$93 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected?
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Nov, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Up to 10m barrels till Nov 2022;
f. Deficit of 1 to 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023?
g. When will Venezuela Oil Sanctions to be lifted?
h. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
i. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1650 from US$1702 from US$1668;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$18 from US$20 from US$19;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.41 from US$3.38 from US$3.39;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$50 from US$49 from US$49;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$19203 from US$19516 last week from US$19308 two weeks ago @ 8.43 AM on Oct 15, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War; Iranian Sanction;
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Extreme Fear 21" from "Extreme Fear 22" last week from "Extreme Fear 15" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3583 from 3640 last week from 3586 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Current PE 18; Forward PE 15
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 29; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. Bought URA
g. Traded AMZN

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16588 from 17740 from 17223;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought JD.com
d. Bought Baidu
e. Bought Alibaba
f. Bought Sands
g. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
h. Added to Geely
i. Added to China Merchants Bank
j. Traded Meituan

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3072 from 3024 from 3024;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3040 from 3045 from 3146;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27091 from 27116 from 25937;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1383 from 1406 from 1395:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Traded MYEG


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 14 @ 2.35 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 147 from 145 last week from 145 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 146
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.31 from 3.24 from 3.24;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.63 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 0.98 from 0.97 from 0.98;
a. Energy Issues
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8130 from 7.8499 from 7.8499;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.68 from 4.65 from 4.64;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.65
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.41 from 1.43 from 1.44;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.14 from 7.12 from 7.18;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 112.32 from 112.80 from 112.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.02% from 3.89% from 3.83%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.50% from 4.31% from 4.27%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 88.06 from 88.57 from 87.85;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 71.74 from 72.12 from 71.39;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1818 from 1961 from 1760; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 23, 2022

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

Big Picture.jpeg

The Big Picture (Update)

In view of the four strong rallies over the past two weeks, it's timely to review the "Big Picture" again, to see whether fundamentals have really changed.

1. Interest Rates:- The US government cannot afford to raise interest rates by too much as they have a huge debt to service. Every 100 bps rise will add about US$285b in additional interest payments. Therefore, Powell's hands are tied but he will continue to try to frighten the market to manage "inflation expectations".

In addition, things are already slowing down in the US. I dont think the US economy can take another 200 bps rise in interest rates hike.

The next FOMC meeting is on Nov 2nd but the Mid-term elections are on Nov 8th. It would be quite foolish for Powell to hike interest rates by 75 bps on Nov 2nd.

Thereafter, the next FOMC meeting is on Dec 14. I would be quite surprised if Powell would also have a rate hike at that meeting.

I think they are now thinking of halting the interest rates hike. The challenge is how to telegraph it without panicking the market.

Thereafter, interest rates will probably not drop until there's a severe slowdown.
If the US economy does tank in 2Q 2023, then interest rates could drop in 3Q 2023.
In view of the above, I should try not to spend all my bullets before 3Q 2023.

2. Inflation:- Consumer Demand is already dropping. I think that the future CPI and PPI numbers, would show that inflation is dropping as long as the Ukraine War do not get worse from here.

3. USD:- The USD has been quite strong due to the interest rates rise. Once there's a feeling of "Peak Interest Rates", it should weaken from there. I think that it would only occur around 2Q 2023 but we will shall see,

4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in Global Demand. When China reopens, it should also lead to more demand for Commodities. I'm also assuming that the coming global recession is a mild one.

As for Oil, I have a feeling that it may not go up too much from here. The Saudis have upset the US and I think that a plan is already in place to push the Oil Market lower. The US also need to replenish their SPR. In March 2020, Oil did "mysteriously" crash to US$37.

5. Liquidity:- The Margin Calls are coming in. At the same time, there's also a lot of Cash on the sidelines (US$23t), waiting to buy any deep plunge. If things get very ugly, the Central Banksters could also have a coordinated QE again.

6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War do not get worse from here. According to Elon Musk and other "experts", these slowdown could last till 2024.

7. Ukraine War:- I'm expecting it to end sooner than later. It's now a matter of finding a way for all parties to "save face". I dont think it would lead to a "limited nuclear war". BTW, the Europeans have enough heating gas to last this coming winter so my gut feel is that the war could end after this winter.

8. Market Sentiment:- Extremely weak. The latest AAII survey shows that 61% of the people are bearish. That's the highest bearish reading since the 2009 bottom. It is a good "Contrarian Indicator".

9. US Earnings:- We are now in the 3Q US Earnings Season. As usual, most of the numbers will come in better than expectations. People will probably be focusing on forward guidance to see how bad things will be later. If a stock does gap up on good numbers, it's not a bad strategy to sell it first and then try to buy back when it retraces 50% of the move.

10. US Stock Market:- Starting to get attractive with the plunge. Will buy whenever the opportunity presents itself. However, I need to remind myself to also keep some dry powder till 2H 2023.

11. HK Stock Market:- 13th year Low; Am aggressively replenishing my inventory. It could be a bad strategy if the "Zero Covid" policy lasts longer than expected. (Winter is also coming).

12. Trading Tactic:- I have been buying any steep drop and trying to sell at 50% of the retracement. I'm starting to force myself to hold my positions longer as I'm now buying at the bottom of the trading range (assuming that the bottom does not fall off).

However, it is very hard to switch from a "trading" mindset" to a "buy & forget" mindset" when everything around you is crumbling down.

I need to constantly remind myself that prices could doubled by the time I'm no longer afraid to buy.

In addition, this supposedly "dead cat bounce" in the market seems to have nine lives. We have seen 4 strong bounce in the past two weeks. That does not feel like a "bear market" anymore. It feels more like a "confused market" and the shorts are also getting slaughtered.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Maximum (50% from 45% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 10% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 44% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 28% (9 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 18% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Heavy exposure to Asian Tech eg. Alibaba, Tencent, JD, Baidu, Meituan, 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF), Sensetime, Basecare, SEA and Grab
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Investing.com on Oct 22 @ 11.25 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$84 from US$86 last week from US$93 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Nov, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Up to 10m barrels in Nov 2022;
f. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Vested in RH Petrogas; Trading XLE
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1663 from US$1650 from US$1702;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$19 from US$18 from US$20;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.48 from US$3.41 from US$3.38;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper); Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$53 from US$50 from US$49;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?
d. Trading URA (Uranium ETF)

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$19142 from US$19203 last week from US$19516 two weeks ago @ 11.30 AM on Oct 22, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Better: "Neutral 45" from "Extreme Fear 21" last week from "Extreme Fear 22" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 3753 from 3583 last week from 3640 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Current PE 18; Forward PE 15
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. Bought SEA (SE)
g. Sold URA
h. Traded TSLA

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16211 from 16588 from 17740;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Added to Alibaba
d. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
e. Added to Meituan
f. Traded JD.com
g. Traded Baidu
h. Sold 1/3 China Merchants Bank

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3039 from 3072 from 3024;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3040 from 3045 from 3146;
Resistance 3850
a. Bought SATS

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 26891 from 27091 from 27116;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1383 from 1406 from 1395:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 21 @ 3.10 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 151 from 147 last week from 145 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.32 from 3.31 from 3.24;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weak; 0.63 from 0.63 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weak; 0.98 from 0.98 from 0.97;
a. Energy Issues
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8543 from 7.8130 from 7.8499;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.74 from 4.68 from 4.65;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.74
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.43 from 1.41 from 1.43;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.25 from 7.14 from 7.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 113.14 from 112.32 from 112.80;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.26% from 4.02% from 3.89%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.61% from 4.50% from 4.31%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 88.11 from 88.06 from 88.57;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 71.80 from 71.74 from 72.12;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1837 from 1818 from 1961; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 30, 2022

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

confused.jpg

Confusing Market Actions?

The S&P 500 has risen about 9% over the past two weeks.

And if you have been listening to the bears (there's no shortage of them), you would have missed a very big move in a very short time.

Are you not confused by the market actions? The "experts" have been calling for the end of the world yet you have one of the strongest rally in recent times.

In October alone, there were seven strong rallies (short-covering?).

The CNN Fear & Greed Index has also moved to "Greed 61" from "Extreme Fear 21" in just two weeks! (This is actually quite a reliable Contrarian Indicator. Buy at 30 and Sell at 70).

Personally, my exposure to Equities is now very high at 57%. It has gone up from about 33% not too long ago when I was also afraid of the world ending.

Fundamentally, things have not really changed over the past few months, so I should start thinking about reducing my exposure to Equities, now that the Contrarian Indicators are flashing "Greed".

As mentioned last week, I think that the Feds can only hike interest rates by another 250 bps or so. (A 100 bps rise would cost the US government an additional US$285b to service their huge debts).

Thereafter, they could keep rates at that elevated level until things start to crash. If I read the situation correctly, I think interest rates would only start to come down in the Summer of 2023, about 6 to 9 months from now.

Therefore, I should try to raise some Cash so that I would have some dry powder for another 6 to 9 months, to capitalize on any "irrational fear" episode, like the one in HK this week.

I have now used up most of my Cash and I would need to withdraw my FDs if I want to continue trading (which I dont want to do).

In the US, traders were also excited with the following:-
1. Margin Debts has dropped by 1/3, to only $664 billion
2. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped from its recent high of 4.33% to 3.98%
3. The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped after peaking at 114. (A weaker USD would be good for the US international companies).

Meanwhile in HK, we are touching a 14 years low. Everything is so "cheap" there. However, I must remind myself to also stagger my buying there, as well as to raise some HKD Cash as well. Although some "experts" are now calling China "un-investable", I'm not that bearish. In addition to the "cheap prices", it's still the world's second largest economy. All I need is for them to reopen their economy and things could recover from there.

For next week, we have the following:-
1. Nov 1 & 2: FOMC Meeting. The market is expecting a 75 bps hike. I think that it's a bit foolish to raise rates by 75 bps when the leading indicators are already pointing downwards. In addition, the Mid-Term elections are only a week away and the Democrats could lose if they did actually go ahead with another 75 bps hike.
2, Nov 8: US Mid-Term Elections. If the Republicans wins, then they can delay or block some of the Stimulus Programs which can be quite inflationary.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Danger (57% from 50% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 10% (5 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 41% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (11 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Heavy exposure to Asian Tech eg. Alibaba, Tencent, JD, Baidu, Meituan, 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF), Sensetime, Basecare, SEA and Grab
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Investing.com on Oct 29 @ 5.35 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$88 from US$84 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Nov, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Up to 10m barrels in Nov 2022;
f. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Vested in RH Petrogas; Trading XLE
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1648 from US$1663 from US$1650;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$19 from US$19 from US$18;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.43 from US$3.48 from US$3.41;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper); Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$53 from US$53 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?
d. Trading URA (Uranium ETF)

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$20620 from US$19142 last week from US$19203 two weeks ago @ 5.40 AM on Oct 29, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Better: "Greed 61" from "Neutral 45" last week from "Extreme Fear 21" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 3901 from 3753 last week from 3583 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: Current PE 18; Forward PE 15
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. Bought Microsoft
g. Bought Alphabet
h. Bought Meta
i. Traded KWEB (China Internet ETF)
j, Traded Tesla
k. Sold SEA (SE)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 14863 from 16211 from 16588;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Tencent
d. Bought China Overseas Land
e. Bought China Mengniu
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Traded 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
h. Traded Meituan
i. Traded JD.com
j. Sold Vitasoy

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2916 from 3039 from 3072;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3059 from 3040 from 3045;
Resistance 3850
a. Bought Riverstone

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27105 from 26891 from 27091;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1447 from 1383 from 1406:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold Gamuda


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 28 @ 5.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 148 from 151 last week from 147 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.34 from 3.32 from 3.31;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.64 from 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.00 from 0.98 from 0.98;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8492 from 7.8543 from 7.8130;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.72 from 4.74 from 4.68;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.74
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.41 from 1.43 from 1.41;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weak; 7.25 from 7.25 from 7.14;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 110.96 from 113.14 from 112.32;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.01% from 4.26% from 4.02%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.41% from 4.61% from 4.50%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 90.75 from 88.11 from 88.06;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 73.98 from 71.80 from 71.74;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1512 from 1837 from 1818; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 6, 2022

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

Random Thoughts.jpg

Random Thoughts

1. HK: Did you noticed the 1500 points rise in HK this week? Didnt the "experts" say that China is now un-investable and that the "Zero Covid Strategy" will continue for a long time more?

As mentioned last week, I was heavily invested in HK techs and this rally provided me with the opportunity to raise some Cash.

At the same time, I will continue to buy on any steep drop in HK as I think that it's quite oversold. I may also average down on my 3188 (CSI 300 ETF).

2. US Feds: As expected, Powell raised rates by 75 bps. It does not matter that the US housing market is already crumbling and SMEs are struggling. Dr. Powell is trying his best to have a "successful operation" and it does not matter if his patient dies on the operating table. .

3. Peak Interest Rates: As mentioned last week, I'm expecting interest rates to only drop in 3Q 2023. And since markets always move 3 to 6 months before the event, I need to remind myself that I must have enough Cash to buy over the next 6 months.

4. Peak USD: Once US interest rates starts to drop, the USD should also drop and Commodities should also rise from there (assuming that there's no Black Swan events).

5. Inverse ETFs: Not sure whether there's enough meat left for Inverse ETFs anymore. If the market does go crazy and rally a lot, I may buy some Inverse ETFs to hedge some of my positions. However, I do prefer to be in Cash during uncertainties then to hedge with Inverse ETFs.

6. Market Timing: Some "experts" are already talking about about "Year-End Tax Loss Harvesting", "Year-End Window Dressing", "Santa Rally", "January Effect" etc.

7. US Mid-Term Elections: If the Republicans does win, they can delay some of Biden's stimulus programs which is quite inflationary.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (48% from 57% last week from 50% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 6% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 41% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 38% (10 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Heavy exposure to Asian Tech eg. Alibaba, Tencent, JD, Baidu, Meituan, 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF), Sensetime, Basecare and Grab
d. Heavy exposure to US Techs eg. TSLA, GOOGL, MSFT, META
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Investing.com on Nov 5 @ 5.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$93 from US$88 last week from US$84 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Nov, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Up to 10m barrels in Nov 2022;
f. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Vested in RH Petrogas; Trading XLE
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1685 from US$1648 from US$1663;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$21 from US$19 from US$19;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.70 from US$3.43 from US$3.48;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper); Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$51 from US$53 from US$53;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?
d. Trading URA (Uranium ETF)

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$21092 from US$20620 last week from US$19142 two weeks ago @ 5.10 AM on Nov 5, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Greed 58" from "Greed 61" last week from "Neutral 45" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3771 from 3901 last week from 3753 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: Current PE 18; Forward PE 15
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. Sold Uber

2. HK Equities - Higher. 16161 from 14863 from 16211;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought China Mobile
d. Sold 2/3 Tencent; Nasper's selling is a headwind.
e. Sold China Mengniu; Trade
f. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
g. Sold 1/3 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
h. Sold 1/2 Meituan
i. Sold 1/2 JD.com
j. Sold Fosun Pharma

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3071 from 2916 from 3039;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid Policy vs Reopening 1Q 2023
d. Targeted Stimulus Programs
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3130 from 3059 from 3040;
Resistance 3850
a. Sold Riverstone
b. Sold SATS
c. Sold 1/2 Wilmar

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27200 from 27105 from 26891;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1438 from 1447 from 1383:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Nov 5 @ 5.45 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 148 last week from 151 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.39 from 3.34 from 3.32;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.00 from 1.00 from 0.98;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8478 from 7.8492 from 7.8543;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.75 from 4.72 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.74
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.40 from 1.41 from 1.43;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.18 from 7.25 from 7.25;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 110.88 from 110.96 from 113.14
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.16% from 4.01% from 4.26%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.66% from 4.41% from 4.61%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 89.33 from 90.75 from 88.11;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 72.90 from 73.98 from 71.80;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1290 from 1512 from 1837; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)


Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110


Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 13, 2022

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

do-you-know.jpg

Do You Know Why You Are Buying Or Selling?

The markets have been extremely volatile this week, so I need to remind myself to be very clear in my thinking on why I'm buying or selling.

The Dow was up 1200 points on Thursday just because the CPI numbers was at 7.7% instead of 8%. Supposedly, that better CPI number will now encouraged Powell to raise rates by 50 bps instead of 75 bps in December. And that supposedly also means that we are closer to peak inflation, peak interest rates, peak dollar, improving corporate revenues, earnings, margins etc. Really?

Do you really think that interest rates would be peaking so soon when you have inflation at 7.7% although it's below expectations and probably will decrease going forward?

Do you really think that the current elevated interest rates would start to decrease in the near future and not 6-9 months from now?

Do you really think that the global economy would suddenly now be improving and that corporate revenue, earnings and margins, would be improving going forward especially when you have a "Zero-Covid" policy in China, a War in Ukraine, an Energy Crisis in Europe and all emerging economies are being hit by a strong USD?

In HK, it's the same "strange" issue. The Hang Seng was up 1200 on the US Inflation story as well as on the story that China is now supposedly "opening up" just because they have decrease the stay at the quarantine centre by two days to five days.

If I read the situation correctly, the euphoria could have been caused by a combination of short-covering as well as algorithm trading. The move is not logical and fundamentals have not really changed.

And if that is the case, the "right" strategy would be to fade that move and then to buy back those positions later. ( I think that I can afford to wait till 1Q 2023 to buy back those positions).

As mentioned last week, I'm expecting rates to only decrease in the Summer of 2023, about 9 months from now. And if markets do move 3 months before the event, I would need to have a good cash level, to last me till at least May 2023 ie. 6 months.

The rise in the markets over the past two weeks, have allowed me to reduce my exposure to equities to about 32% now, from about 57% just two weeks ago.

I'm hopefully now in a better position to trade and can wait more patiently for that set-up ie. about 700 points drop (with no news) on the Dow or the Hang Seng, with the individual stock dropping about 7% ( with no news) at an RSI of about 30.

I'm now watching the US Mid-Term Election results. A Republican win would probably be good for the markets. Having said that, markets are normally strong during the second half of the Presidential term as the President would always be boosting the economy to try to be re-elected.

Finally, we saw the implosion of FTX this week. The margin calls are coming in and some "experts" are saying that it could bring the system down. I dont think so.

The market cap of all cryptos is only US$850b and Bitcoin is worth only about US$325b. However, a lot of young people may have lost the down-payment for their first house but I dont think the system will be brought down by the collapse of cryptos. By comparison, Chinese stocks have lost about US$7 trillion in market value and the world continues to spin.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (32% from 48% last week from 57% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 10% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 34% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 21% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Heavy exposure to Asian Tech eg. Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF), Sensetime, Basecare and Grab
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Investing.com on Nov 12 @ 8.10 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$89 from US$93 last week from US$88 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Nov, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Up to 10m barrels in Nov 2022;
f. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Vested in RH Petrogas; Trading XLE
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1774 from US$1685 from US$1648;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$22 from US$21 from US$19;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.94 from US$3.70 from US$3.43;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper); Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$50 from US$51 from US$53;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?
d. Trading URA (Uranium ETF)

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$16920 from US$21092 last week from US$20620 two weeks ago @ 8.15 AM on Nov 12, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$13,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)


CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: 'greed 66" from "Greed 58" last week from "Greed 61" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 3972 from 3771 last week from 3901 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. Sold Alphabet (GOOGL)
g. Sold Microsoft (MSFT)
h. Sold Meta Platforms (META)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17326 from 16161 from 14863;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold China Overseas Land
d. Sold AIA
e. Sold Meituan
f. Sold JD.com
g. Sold Sands China
h. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
i. Sold 1/2 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
j. Sold 1/2 Zijin
k. Sold 1/2 Geely Auto
l. Sold 1/2 China Merchants Bank
m. Sold 1/3 Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3087 from 3071 from 2916;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid Policy vs Reopening 1Q 2023
d. Targeted Stimulus Programs
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3228 from 3130 from 3059;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28264 from 27200 from 27105;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1468 from 1438 from 1447:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to Destini
b. Sold DNEX
c. Sold 2/3 MUI Properties


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Nov 12 @ 7.50 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 139 from 147 last week from 148 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.37 from 3.39 from 3.34;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.04 from 1.00 from 1.00;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8397 from 7.8478 from 7.8492;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.63 from 4.75 from 4.72;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.74
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.37 from 1.40 from 1.41;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.11 from 7.18 from 7.25;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 106.29 from 110.88 from 110.96;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.81% from 4.16% from 4.01%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.33% from 4.66% from 4.41%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.16 from 89.33 from 90.75;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.45 from 72.90 from 73.98;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1390 from 1290 from 1512; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

TOL @ Nov 20, 2022

buy_sell_hold (1).jpg

Do You Know Why You Are Buying Or Selling? (Part 2)

The markets continued with it's rise this week, although at a slower pace.

Is it now touching "Resistance" or just taking a "Breather", before the next leg up?

Intuitively, I think that it's touching "Resistance". Fundamentals still have not really changed:-
1. China still has not reopened
2. The Ukraine War is still ongoing
3. The US economy is still slowing down eg. Housing, Delinquent Car Loans etc.
4. Inflation is still high
5. Interest Rate is still high
6. Europe will still be facing a "Winter Energy Crisis"
etc.

In HK, the market has gone up about 3200 points in about a month. That feels a bit euphoric. Didn't Sir John Templeton says that "bull markets dies on euphoria"?

Anyway, I have again taken the opportunity to lighten up on my exposure to equities. It's now down to 26%, from about 60% not too long ago.

I'm now playing a longer game. As mentioned last week, I need to survive until next Summer 2023. So I will need a higher level of Cash to buy into any crash before Summer 2023.

Going forward, I need to remind myself to be also more discipline. The stocks that I will be buying going forward, must fulfill various requirements including:-
1. If money losing, there must be a clear path to profitability within 2 years with adequate Cash to survive 4 years else they will be asking for Rights or Placements.
2. Attractive Revenue
3. Reasonable PEG
4. Trading at the lower end of Trading Range
5. Attractive RSI numbers
6. Visible Catalyst within 6 months

Some other questions / comments for this week:-
1. Is Oil dropping because the US is now providing immunity to MBS?
2. Will the Feds revise their inflation target to 4% (as 2% now seems very unrealistic)?
3. What has this Jim Bullard been smoking? Fed Funds rate at 7%? Trying to talk down the market?
4. I still dont see a "Crypto Contagion" even with this new Genesis event

For next week, it would be very interesting to see the maneuvering from the Malaysian General Election.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (26% from 32% last week from 48% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 12% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 27% (9 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 28% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Sold most of Tech counters in HK and the US
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Investing.com on Nov 19 @ 7.40 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$80 from US$89 last week from US$93 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Nov, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Up to 10m barrels in Nov 2022;
f. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Vested in RH Petrogas; Trading XLE
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1752 from US$1774 from US$1685;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$21 from US$22 from US$21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.64 from US$3.94 from US$3.70;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper); Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$50 from US$50 from US$51;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?
d. Trading URA (Uranium ETF)

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$16680 from US$16920 last week from US$21092 two weeks ago @ 7.40 AM on Nov 19, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$13,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Greed 62" from "Greed 66" last week from "Greed 58" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3965 from 3972 last week from 3771 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. Sold GRAB

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17993 from 17326 from 16161;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17800; 31200; 33500
c. Sold 1/2 Baidu
d. Sold Alibaba
e. Sold 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
f. Sold Tencent
g. Sold China Merchants Bank

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3097 from 3087 from 3071;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid Policy vs Reopening 1Q 2023
d. Targeted Stimulus Programs
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3272 from 3228 from 3130;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27899 from 28264 from 27200;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1449 from 1468 from 1438:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought MYEG


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 18 @ 6.05 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 140 from 139 last week from 147 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.32 from 3.37 from 3.39;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.04 from 1.04 from 1.00;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8425 from 7.8397 from 7.8478;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.57 from 4.63 from 4.75;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.74
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.38 from 1.37 from 1.40;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.14 from 7.11 from 7.18;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 106.51 from 106.29 from 110.88;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.80% from 3.81% from 4.16%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.48% from 4.33% from 4.66%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - :Lower: 90.78 from 91.16 from 89.33;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.07 from 74.45 from 72.90;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1228 from 1390 from 1290; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)


Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).


TOL @ Nov 27, 2022

buy-sell-or-hold.jpg

Market Timing

Most of the world's market have not gone anywhere for the past week (except for the KLSE). Therefore, it's time to see what's on the horizon:-
1. Nov 30: Powell will be speaking. Hopefully, he wont trip the market up
2. Dec 1: New Money From The New Month. Some fund managers may buy first while waiting for the new funds to arrive
3. December: US Tax Loss Harvesting
4. December: Window Dressing
5. Dec 14 & 15: FOMC meeting. Everyone expecting a 50 bps increase
6. Dec 19: Malaysia Confidence Vote
7. Dec 27 to Jan 3: Santa Claus Rally
8. January 2023: New Money From The New Month
9. January 2023: January Effect; Small Caps and stocks sold for tax-loss harvesting

My strategy has not changed. I'm trying to keep a higher level of Cash because I'm expecting US interest rates to only drop next Summer 2023.

If there's a steep crash in the markets over the next few months, I may buy but probably in a staggered manner. I dont want to finish all my bullets and find myself with no bullets at the bottom of the market.

Fundamentals have not really changed so there's no need to chase the markets:-
1. US: Things are deteriorating eg. Housing Sector, Delinquent Car Loans, Weak Black Friday Sales, Layoffs in Tech Sector etc.
2. Europe: Winter Energy Crisis; Ongoing Ukraine War, Rising Interest Rates etc.
3. China: Zero Covid Policy, Weak Property Sector, Weak Manufacturing Sector. Weak Tech Sector, Common Prosperity Policy etc.
4. High Interest Rates, High Commodity Prices, High Inflation, High USD etc.
5. Malaysia: Cautious trading before Dec 19;

BTW, Over the past few weeks, I have not seen any "experts" talk about Super-Hurricanes, Super-Recession, Super-Crash etc as the markets rallied strongly. Very likely, these "experts" will be returning when the market next dips.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (26% from 26% last week from 32% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 11% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 32% (10 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 25% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Investing.com on Nov 19 @ 7.40 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$80 last week from US$89 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Will replenish at US$67 to US$72.
f. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Vested in RH Petrogas; Trading XLE
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1755 from US$1752 from US$1774;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$21 from US$21 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.62 from US$3.64 from US$3.94;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper); Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$50 from US$50 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?
d. Trading URA (Uranium ETF)

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$16515 from US$16680 last week from US$16920 two weeks ago @ 6.40 AM on Nov 26, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$13,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Greed 64" from "Greed 62" last week from "Greed 66" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 4026 from 3965 last week from 3972 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17574 from 17993 from 17326;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17800; 31200; 33500
c. Bought Vitasoy (0345)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3102 from 3097 from 3087;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid Policy vs Reopening 1Q 2023
d. Targeted Stimulus Programs
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3245 from 3272 from 3228;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28283 from 27899 from 28264;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1487 from 1449 from 1468:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Magnum
b. Added to Sports Toto
c. Sold MYEG
d. Sold MUI Properties
e. Traded DNEX


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Nov 26 @ 7.00 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 139 from 140 last week from 139 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.26 from 3.32 from 3.37;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.04 from 1.04 from 1.04;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8174 from 7.8425 from 7.8397;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.48 from 4.57 from 4.63;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.38 from 1.38 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.17 from 7.14 from 7.11;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 106.06 from 106.51 from 106.29;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.69% from 3.80% from 3.81%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.47% from 4.48% from 4.33%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.94 from 90.78 from 91.16;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.01 from 74.07 from 74.45;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1242 from 1228 from 1390; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).


TOL @ Dec 4, 2022

Skeptic.jpg

Staying Skeptical?

The markets have had a good weak but I think that it was for "debatable" reasons.

In the US, just because Powell mentioned that the rates of interest hikes may be smaller going forward, the Nasdaq decided to jump 4.5%.

Anyone who has some basic knowledge of macro-economics, would know that the high rates of US interest hikes are not sustainable. This is because the US now has a huge amount of debt. A recent study concluded that for every 100 bps rise in interest rates, it would cost the US government an additional US$285b in interest rates payment.

However, the US stock market is behaving as if what Powell said is something so new and enlightening. As for myself, I remain skeptical and still thinks that the US interest rates may peak around Spring, stay at that elevated level for a few months and then decrease in the Summer of 2023. If there's a stock market crash then US rates could decrease before Summer 2023.

And in China, just because there were some statements that perhaps the "Zero-Covid" policy may be loosened, the HK market has decided to rocket about 8% in 3 days. Anyone with a bit of common sense would know that an extended lock-down is not feasible in the first place. Sooner or later, they will have to loosen things even if there's an increase in the number of Covid19 cases.

In addition, the rest of the world has already reopened and that the unvaccinated in the poorer countries, are not dying like flies. Yet the stock markets decided to rally on those "vague" statements.

BTW, I did not read anywhere that the National Team was supporting the market.
Anyway, I remain skeptical here too and have sold a lot of my Chinese shares. I think the HK market is now overbought and I will take my time to buy back those positions over the next few months.

I can understand that the rallies can be due to short-covering and the FOMO mentality amongst the fund managers. However, doesn't one has to question the quality of these fund managers for short-selling the markets or being underweight the markets, after it has fallen so much over the past year?

Anyway, I have sold again into the rally. I now only have a 20% exposure to Equities (down from about 60% not too long ago). I also have only about 20 counters in my portfolio now (down from around 60 a few weeks ago).

Going forward, it's not likely that I would be trading much unless the price of the counter is so irresistible or that the market has dived sharply.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (20% from 26% last week from 26% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 60%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 5% (1 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 20% (6 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 42% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 33% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Investing.com on Dec 3 @ 9.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$80 from US$77 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Will replenish at US$67 to US$72.
f. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
h. Vested in RH Petrogas; Trading XLE
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1811 from US$1755 from US$1752;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$23 from US$21 from US$21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.86 from US$3.62 from US$3.64;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper); Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$50 from US$50 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?
d. Trading URA (Uranium ETF)

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$17049 from US$16515 last week from US$16680 two weeks ago @ 9.00 AM on Dec 3, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$13,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Elevated: : "Greedy 63" from "Greed 64" last week from "Greed 62" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 4072 from 4026 last week from 3965 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 18675 from 17574 from 17993;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17800; 31200; 33500
c. Sold Vitasoy (0345)
d. Sold 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
e. Sold Baidu
f. Sold Alibaba
g. Sold China Mobille
h. Sold China Merchant Bank
i. Sold JD.com
j. Sold Geely Auto

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3156 from 3102 from 3097;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid Policy vs Reopening 1Q 2023
d. Targeted Stimulus Programs
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3259 from 3245 from 3272;
Resistance 3850
a. Sold Wilmar
b. Sold RH Petrogas
c. Sold Isetan

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27778 from 28283 from 27899;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1482 from 1487 from 1449:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold Magnum


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 2 @ 2.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 135 from 139 last week from 140 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.25 from 3.26 from 3.32;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.68 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.05 from 1.04 from 1.04;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7826 from 7.8174 from 7.8425;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.40 from 4.48 from 4.57;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.35 from 1.38 from 1.38;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.05 from 7.17 from 7.14;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.66 from 106.06 from 106.51;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.49% from 3.69% from 3.80%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.47% from 4.48% from 4.33%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.55 from 91.94 from 90.78;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.62 from 75.01 from 74.07;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1338 from 1242 from 1228; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT (US$95b/month) versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

expect.jpg

TOL @ Dec 11, 2022

Staying Skeptical (Part 2)

The US markets have not gone anywhere for the past week and it would be interesting to see whether there would be any "Window Dressing" activities over the next few weeks, until Dec 31st.

As for HK, it was euphoric this week. It supposedly move on some news about loosening the "Zero Covid Policy" as well as policy support for the Property sector, as if they were something new and unexpected.

HK has now rocketed about 5000 points (35%) in 6 weeks. By comparison, the CSI 300 only went up 11% during that 6 weeks. Shouldn't the loosening of the "Zero Covid Policy" and the support for the "Chinese Property Sector", be also moving the Shanghai Stock Market as well? So why is the HK market flying but not Shanghai?

Anyway, most of the recent movement in the HK market were in the Casinos, Technology & Property counters and the following are my comments:-

1. Casinos:- The "experts" are now talking about the Chinese flocking to Macau for CNY and that the occupancy rate could rise to 90%. Really? Do you really think that the Chinese gamblers would be returning to Macau so soon. Didnt some "experts" also said that the Chinese Group Tours would be swarming Macau in Nov 2022 and the share prices then flew on that news? It's now the middle of December, so where are those Chinese Group Tours? Over the past 6 weeks, the Casinos counters have leapt about 60% in the past 6 weeks. I think the gamblers would only be returning to Macau later than earlier.

2. Technology:- The "experts" are now saying that with the reopening of China, the Tech counters would be able to generate more revenue and earnings. Really? How much more revenue do you think that Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com and Baidu, can generate over the next two years? In the meantime, the China tech counters have also leapt about 60% in 6 weeks. By comparison, the US Tech counters have risen only 12% in the same 6 weeks period. Given a choice, would you rather be buying a Big US Tech company or a Big Chinese Tech company now?

3. Properties:- This sector has also been euphoric over the past 6 weeks. It's as if there's no more issues with the China property Sector and that people are now lining up to buy Properties again. Really? IMHO, I think that it will take years to sort out the problems in the sector. In the meantime, do you know why are you now buying the China property counters?

BYW, China's exports in November contracted 8.7% from a year earlier, while imports tumbled 10.6%, both missing expectations by large margins. Do you really think that numbers from China over the next few quarters would be so great, to be able to justify the rise of the Technology, Casinos and Property counters, over the past 6 weeks? "Pump and Dump" operation in place?

Anyway, I should remind myself that "sounding smart" is not the goal here. It's all about making money. So, did I make money in HK over the past 6 weeks? And if I want to trade in a "dangerous market", I better know where's the emergency exit.

As for the US counters, MS mentioned that the U.S. investors have been waiting for the rate hikes to end. Recent signs of cooling inflation encouraged investors, pushing the S&P 500 Index up 14% since October. However, by focusing only on Fed policy and expectations for lower rates, investors are missing the troubling implication of the policy tightening: an economic slowdown. At this point, we think investors should shift their focus from the Fed’s rate hikes to "consumer activity".

As for myself, I totally agree that one should now focus on "Earnings" instead of "Liquidity". Almost everyone is expecting Interest rates to peak at around 5.5%, stay elevated until around Summer 2023 before it starts declining (plus or minus a few months).

However, a lot of people seemed to have forgotten that Revenue and Earnings expectations are too high for next year. And this could be a major unpleasant surprise for next year when they start to revise the earnings downward.

For next week, I would be watching:-
1. Dec 14 - FOMC meeting; Everyone is expecting a 50 bps hike in rates
2, Dec 15 - 17: China's Central Economic Work Conference; Everyone is expecting them to announce some targeted stimulus especially for the property sector

Finally, I have managed to reduce the number of counters that I have, to about 19 (from about 60 a few weeks ago). I have also reduce my exposure to Equities to 18% (from about 60% a few weeks ago). I need to remind myself to stay disciplined. If I want to trade in a dangerous market like HK now, I must ensure that my "Trailing Stop Loss of 7%" be in place.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (18% from 20% last week from 26% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 60%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 20% (5 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 46% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 35% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 35%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Investing.com on Dec 3 @ 9.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$72 from US$80 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Will replenish at US$67 to US$72.
f. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p2312

2. Gold - Flat. US$1809 from US$1811 from US$1755;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$23 from US$21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.86 from US$3.86 from US$3.62;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper); Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$48 from US$50 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$17152 from US$17049 last week from US$16515 two weeks ago @ 7.43 AM on Dec 10, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$13,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Elevated: : "Neutral 54" from "Greed 63" last week from "Greed 64" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3934 from 4072 last week from 4026 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19901 from 18675 from 17574;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Traded Sensetime

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3207 from 3156 from 3102;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid Policy vs Reopening 1Q 2023
d. Targeted Stimulus Programs
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3246 from 3259 from 3245;
Resistance 3850
a. Sold Isetan
b. Sold Disa

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27901 from 27778 from 28283;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1477 from 1482 from 1487:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold some Destini


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 9 @ 12.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 136 from 135 last week from 139 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.26 from 3.25 from 3.26;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.68 from 0.68 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.06 from 1.05 from 1.04;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7890 from 7.7826 from 7.8174;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.40 from 4.40 from 4.48;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.38;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.96 from 7.05 from 7.17;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.52 from 104.66 from 106.06;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.59% from 3.49% from 3.69%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.34% from 4.47% from 4.48%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.82 from 92.55 from 91.94;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 75.04 from 75.62 from 75.01;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1385 from 1338 from 1242; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT (US$95b / month) versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Long Game.png

TOL @ Dec 18, 2022

Staying Skeptical (Part 3)

The markets have not gone anywhere for another week and it's starting to be the trend.

Is it buying time before the next leg up or is it touching resistance now?

Intuitively, I think that it's touching resistance and it will probably not go anywhere unless we can see some improvement in either "Market Liquidity" or "Earnings", the two factors affecting the markets.

My "Cash Level" remains very high and it's not likely that I would be deploying them anytime soon unless there's a very sharp dip. Even then I would probably wait for things to settle first before buying.

If I'm going to trade, it would probably be for a quick ride. I dont think this is a "Buy & Forget" market.

I have a feeling that "Window Dressing" is over and Santa may have left already. If that's the case, I may have to wait till January 2nd before trading again.

Anyway, according to Investor Place, the Analysts have been reducing their 2023 earnings estimates at a fairly rapid pace. At the beginning of October, next year’s earnings were expected to rise by 7.8%. Today, they are at 4.8%.

Strategists, on the other hand, who look at the stock market from a top-down, “macro” perspective (they estimate prices based on economic data, not company reports), have a much dimmer perspective. At the start of December, the average 2023 estimate for S&P 500 earnings from 19 top Wall Street strategists called for them to decline by an average of 6.5%.

That’s a spread of more than 11 percentage points between the Strategists and Analysts. Even assuming that analysts are historically an optimistic lot (they are), that is a very wide spread. We shall see who's correct.

For next week, I will be watching the following:-
1. Malaysia: Dec 19 - Confidence Vote on Anwar.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (21% from 21% last week from 18% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 60%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 26% (7 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 39% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 35% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Investing.com on Dec 17 @ 2.07 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$75 from US$72 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$72; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 10%? 10m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 390m barrels left; Will replenish at US$67 to US$72?
f. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
g. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1803 from US$1809 from US$1811;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$24 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.77 from US$3.86 from US$3.86;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper); Monitoring COPX
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$48 from US$48 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
c. If Oil and Natural Gas drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$16690 from US$17152 last week from US$17049 two weeks ago @ 2.11 PM on Dec 17, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$13,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian Sanction, Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Elevated: : "43 Fear" from "Neutral 54" last week from "Greed 63" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3852 from 3934 last week from 4072 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750;
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19451 from 19901 from 18675;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17,000; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Sensetime
d. Bought Vitasoy

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3168 from 3207 from 3156;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid Policy vs Reopening 1Q 2023
d. Targeted Stimulus Programs
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3241 from 3246 from 3259;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27527 from 27901 from 27778;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1479 from 1477 from 1482:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought DNEX
b. Traded Gamuda
c. Traded Hexstar Industries


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Dec 16 @ 8.35 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 137 from 136 last week from 135 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Monitoring FXY
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.26 from 3.26 from 3.25;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.67 from 0.68 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.05;
a. Winter Energy Crisis?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7819 from 7.7890 from 7.7826;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.42 from 4.40 from 4.40;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.97 from 6.96 from 7.05;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Flat; 104.53 from 104.52 from 104.66;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS: To drop by 25% by end 2023
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.49 % from 3.59% from 3.49%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.18% from 4.34% from 4.47%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.30 from 91.82 from 92.55;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 75.00 from 75.04 from 75.62;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1528 from 1385 from 1338; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics