Lehman Brothers (LEH)

Re: Lehman LEH

Postby millionairemind » Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:05 pm

winston wrote:Deja Vu... Maybe another Bear Stearns deal is already in the making.

Once it get done, another overhang would be removed. And the shorts will be squeezed again ( for one day ) ...

Who's next after that ? AIG ?


ML??? :?

Then Singaporeans will have to pay the price.. :(
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 7776
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: Lehman LEH

Postby kennynah » Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:23 pm

LEH is trading at 4.80 pre-market...it closed at 7.25 last night
Options Strategies & Discussions .(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas

Image..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................Image
User avatar
kennynah
Lord of the Lew Lian
 
Posts: 14201
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 2:00 am
Location: everywhere.. and nowhere..

Re: Lehman LEH

Postby Chiron » Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:55 pm

Since LEH has come clean with its latest announcement and the price has been battered down, personally I will start to channel my worries to ML. LEH maybe can be taken over by GS, but if ML failed who will rescue it? cant expect Temasek rite?
User avatar
Chiron
Coolie
 
Posts: 199
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 10:39 am

Re: Lehman LEH

Postby kennynah » Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:00 pm

$4 now...
Options Strategies & Discussions .(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas

Image..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................Image
User avatar
kennynah
Lord of the Lew Lian
 
Posts: 14201
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 2:00 am
Location: everywhere.. and nowhere..

Re: Lehman LEH

Postby OE2008 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:14 pm

LEH is already creating much uncertainties with overseas banks including those in Singapore and HK.

Hmm, have our banks done adequate stress test under scenarios of failures of major banks in US. What would be the extent of damages to our banking system under systemic market collapse triggered by these failures?
User avatar
OE2008
Loafer
 
Posts: 95
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 10:33 am

Re: Lehman LEH

Postby millionairemind » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:09 am

Lehman races to find buyer or investor
By Peter Thal Larsen, Francesco Guerrera and Chris Hughes in London and Greg Farrell in New York
Published: September 11 2008 19:24 | Last updated: September 12 2008 01:26

Lehman Brothers was on Thursday night in talks with potential buyers – including Bank of America – in a last-ditch attempt to stave off collapse after investors gave a thumbs-down to its survival plans.

Shares in Lehman, which had halved in value this week, plunged a further 41.8 per cent on Thursday as uncertainty rose about the bank’s ability to continue as an independent entity.

Lehman executives, led by chief executive d**k Fuld, began contacting rival banks in the morning after the shares tumbled in pre-market trading. By Thursday night, several banks were in talks with Lehman about buying all or part of it. In addition to Bank of America, those believed to be interested included Barclays .

Lehman, BofA and Barclays all declined to comment. Nomura, of Japan, which has also been considered a potential buyer, could not be reached for comment.

Bankers said the US authorities were urging financial institutions to continue to do business with Lehman, while putting pressure on the company to close a deal at whatever price the market was willing to pay. The Treasury and the Fed declined to comment. The Treasury said it was “talking to market participants”.

As of late Thursday night, the Treasury and the Fed were not directly involved in negotiations over the sale of Lehman, and were not involved in negotiations on any government support for a deal.

However, the situation was evolving rapidly and it remained possible that a potential buyer could seek to secure a government sweetener of the kind that helped facilitate the sale of Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase in March. Some analysts speculated that the Treasury and the Fed could be asked to take equity risk on part of Lehman’s commercial property portfolio in the same way they agreed to take all but the first $1bn of losses on a $30bn portfolio of Bear mortgage-backed securities.

The US authorities are not keen to follow that precedent, but they could yet decide that the systemic dangers associated with the risk of even a slow-motion collapse of a leading investment bank would merit such action.

Pressure to find a buyer or investor mounted after investors concluded that plans outlined on Wednesday to spin off its troubled commercial property arm and shrink remaining operations were not sufficiently robust.

Moody’s, the rating agency, warned it would probably downgrade Lehman’s credit rating unless it quickly found a buyer. The cost of insuring against a default on Lehman debt rose as high as 805 basis points on Thursday, before falling later as it became apparent the bank was trying to find a buyer. Lehman’s 10-year bonds were trading at distressed levels.

Another option for Lehman is to agree rapidly a deal to sell a majority stake in its asset management subsidiary to acquire much-needed capital.

A number of private equity groups are expected to submit final bids for the business this weekend, people close to the bank said, although an agreement is likely to be some way off.

The turmoil weighed heavily on employees. “There are 25,000 people who are sitting there crying,” one banker said on Thursday. “I just hope there’s a solution.”

Lehman Brothers was on Thursday night in talks with potential buyers, including Bank of America, in a last-ditch attempt to stave off collapse after investors gave a thumbs-down to its survival plans.

Shares in Lehman, which had halved in value this week, plunged a further 41.8 per cent on Thursday as uncertainty rose about the bank’s ability to continue as an independent entity.

Lehman executives, led by chairman and chief executive d**k Fuld, began contacting rival banks on Thursday morning after the shares took another tumble in pre-market trading. By Thursday night several banks were in talks with Lehman about buying all or part of it. In addition to Bank of America, those banks believed to be interested include Barclays.

Lehman, BofA and Barclays all declined to comment. Nomura, of Japan, which has also been considered a potential buyer, could not be reached for comment.

Any bank would be unlikely to mount a solo rescue without a form of support from the US Federal Reserve, similar to the facility the central bank provided to JPMorgan Chase when it agreed to rescue Bear Stearns in March.

Bankers said the Fed was keeping a close eye on the situation but it was unclear on Thursday night whether such government support would be on offer and whether it would only be extended to US banks.

Pressure on Lehman to find a buyer or investor mounted after both equity and debt investors concluded that plans outlined on Wednesday to spin off its troubled commercial property arm and shrink remaining operations were not sufficiently robust to retain the confidence of clients and trading counterparties.

Moody’s, the rating agency, warned it would probably downgrade Lehman’s credit rating unless it quickly found a buyer.

The cost of insuring against a default on Lehman debt rose as high as 805 basis points on Thursday, although pricing of default swaps tightened as it became apparent that the bank was trying to find a buyer.

Lehman’s 10-year bonds were trading at distressed levels, indicating investors’ belief that the bank was unlikely to survive on its own.

Another option for Lehman is to agree rapidly a deal to sell a majority stake in its asset management subsidiary to acquire much-needed capital.

A number of private equity groups are expected to submit final bids for the business this weekend, people close to the bank said, although an agreement is likely to be some way off.

The uncertainty swirling round Lehman spread to other US financial institutions on Thursday as investors focused on banks that face a possible shortage of capital or could be vulnerable to a loss of confidence.

Shares in Merrill Lynch, the Wall Street bank that has suffered heavy losses caused by the credit crunch, fell 16.6 per cent. Shares in both Wachovia and Washington Mutual recovered after being down by about 10 per cent in early trade.

The continued drop in Lehman’s share price, which has lost almost 90 per cent of its value in the past year, weighed heavily on employees, who between them own more than 30 per cent of the bank.

“There are 25,000 people who are sitting there crying,” one banker said on Thursday. “I just hope there’s a solution.”
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 7776
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: Lehman LEH

Postby winston » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:13 am

This time could be different.

Even if the deal gets done, it may be just a 30 mins wonder and people will go back to asking "What Next ?".

I dont think people would be too excited this time unlike Bear-Stearns...
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 112616
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Lehman LEH

Postby millionairemind » Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:19 am

New Jersey Pension Fund Lost $50 Million on Lehman (Update2)
By Hui-yong Yu and Adam L. Cataldo

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- New Jersey's state pension fund lost $50 million on the sale of about 3 million shares of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. during the past two months, fund director William Clark said.

New Jersey had bought 4.2 million Lehman common shares for about $118 million in June when the U.S. securities firm raised $6 billion in a stock sale. The state paid $28 a share for the stock that it later sold at an average price of $19.35, Clark said in a telephone interview. New Jersey still holds $60 million of Lehman preferred shares that have a dividend of 8.75 percent.

``Look, I am really not happy about making a mistake in this Lehman investment,'' Clark said. ``You think something comes down in price and that it looks really cheap. It was a mistake a lot of people have made and we have made as well.''

- If this is the way they are running a pension fund and buying stocks just because it looks cheap, it says alot about the quality of their managers. :?
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 7776
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Lehman LEH

Postby ishak » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:57 am

Now to convince investors it can deliver
Plan seen as long on hope, short on details; doubts over execution raised

AP, 12 Sep 2008

Lehman Brothers has presented its rescue plan, now it has to convince Wall Street it can make good on its promises.

On Wednesday, the 158-year-old investment bank outlined a blueprint to sell off its well-respected investment management unit and spin off its commercial real estate assets.

The strategy is part of a last-ditch effort to rescue the investment bank from bad bets on real estate-related holdings that have already laid low other storied Wall Street firms.

Lehman chief executive d**k Fuld, 62, the longest serving CEO on Wall Street, also said the firm would examine all other options - including a sale of the company he joined right out of college.

For investors, the strategy seemed long on hope, short on details and raised questions about timing and execution, analysts said. Investors had hoped to see a solid plan in place to offset almost US$6.5 billion of losses during the past two quarters.

Wall Street's uncertainty also showed up on Wednesday in the cost for insuring Lehman's debt against default. The insurance, known as credit default swaps, rose to 6.10 percentage points from 4.75 percentage points after Lehman rolled out its strategy.

Those insurance costs are now greater than those of former rival Bear Stearns shortly before it was rescued by a Federal Reserve-backed plan in March.

The nation's fourth-largest investment bank plans to sell a 55 per cent stake in its investment management division, which includes its prized Neuberger Berman asset management unit. Lehman said it is in advanced talks with several bidders, but refused to give a timeline about when a deal would take place.

Investors were discouraged that no buyer had been named. Lehman began pitching a deal to private-equity firms two months ago. Analysts believe the sale could fetch about US$3 billion.

'This is agonising for shareholders,' said Mark Williams, a professor of finance at Boston University School of Management. 'Fuld was supposed to have a war room started in March, when Bear Stearns nearly collapsed, to solve these problems, and at this point he has failed miserably.'

Arrayed against the plan: The current financial crisis shows no sign of ending soon, credit conditions remain tight and big acquisitions are rare. Big institutional investors - like state-owned sovereign wealth funds and private-equity firms - aren't as willing to make major investments.

If all else fails, Mr Fuld left open the option of selling the company. 'We remain committed to examining all strategic alternatives to maximise shareholder value,' Mr Fuld said.

Further, the firm is also taking a big bet that a spin off of its commercial real estate assets will get a strong market reception in early 2009. The new entity will be called Real Estate Investments Global, and will be run by independent management.

Prof Williams said he believes Mr Fuld now has a limited amount of time, perhaps until Monday, to unveil a bona fide deal or run the risk of shares tumbling even further. And, he said, that could lead to a worst- case scenario where rumours about the company cause anxious trading partners to pull business - a scenario that felled Bear Stearns six months ago.

Wall Street remains skittish about financial stocks since a run on Bear Stearns caused the US government to orchestrate its sale to JPMorgan Chase in March. Lehman, the biggest US underwriter of mortgage-backed securities, was automatically scrutinised.

Unlike Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers has access to funds from the Federal Reserve through the central bank's discount window. The government has allowed investment banks to borrow money to cover short-term needs, an ability that only commercial banks had in the past. The borrowing could buy Lehman some time while it works out its restructuring.

Mr Fuld also is one of the most respected and popular bankers on Wall Street. He led his firm back from major capital shortages during the financial crisis in 1998. Analysts said he inspires confidence that he can reinvent the bank despite one of the worst economic climates since the Depression.
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.
- Albert Einstein
User avatar
ishak
Boss' Left Hand Person
 
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:37 pm
Location: Portfolio updated 20080929

Re: Lehman LEH

Postby kennynah » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:05 pm

millionairemind wrote:New Jersey Pension Fund Lost $50 Million on Lehman (Update2)
By Hui-yong Yu and Adam L. Cataldo

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- New Jersey's state pension fund lost $50 million on the sale of about 3 million shares of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. during the past two months, fund director William Clark said.

New Jersey had bought 4.2 million Lehman common shares for about $118 million in June when the U.S. securities firm raised $6 billion in a stock sale. The state paid $28 a share for the stock that it later sold at an average price of $19.35, Clark said in a telephone interview. New Jersey still holds $60 million of Lehman preferred shares that have a dividend of 8.75 percent.

``Look, I am really not happy about making a mistake in this Lehman investment,'' Clark said. ``You think something comes down in price and that it looks really cheap. It was a mistake a lot of people have made and we have made as well.''

- If this is the way they are running a pension fund and buying stocks just because it looks cheap, it says alot about the quality of their managers. :?



pension funds means money for pensioners...like our cpf money..

it is perhaps clearer now to all of us that why when an investment bank fails, commoners suffer as well...

this is also the reason why the treasury dept will step in to assist troubled institutions whenever they can...
Options Strategies & Discussions .(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas

Image..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................Image
User avatar
kennynah
Lord of the Lew Lian
 
Posts: 14201
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 2:00 am
Location: everywhere.. and nowhere..

PreviousNext

Return to L to R

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests