Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 22)

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 8, 2021

inflation.jpg

US CPI Data on Aug 11

The markets have not been going anywhere for the past week and all eyes are now on the US CPI Data next week.

If you have been buying daily necessities, you would know that prices have gone up quite a bit. And it's not likely that those prices would be coming down in the near future.

But the Central Banksters are continuosly telling you that inflation is "transitory".

Well, inflation could be "transitory" if there's a Recession, Stock-Market Crash, High Unemployment, High Interest Rates etc.

Does the Central Banksters know that very bad times are coming and that's why they keep on insisting that inflation is transitory?

Taking a step backwards, I'm also perplexed that we are now so focussed on the monthly inflation data. What happened to PEG? What happened to "buying businesses with wide moats at a fair price"? etc.

And in HK and China, the focussed has been on Regulatory Risks. We now even have "experts" looking at what the politicians have said in the past, to see which sector would be hit next.

We already have the Vaping Companies being whacked this week. The Dairy companies were also being whacked because they supposedly discouraged breast-feeding.

E-Commerce and Gaming were whacked again this week, with taxes probably being increased and a "class-action" lawsuit being filed against Tencent.

Who will be next?
1. Macau Casinos (moral and foreign exchange)?
2. Liquor ( you know why)?
3. Coal, Oil, Steel, Cement, Car Companies (environmental issues)?
4. Meat Companies (health & environmental issues)?
5. Property, Stock Brokers, Insurance (speculation)?
etc.

Cramer mentioned that it's the height of irresponsibility if you invest in Chinese stocks now. I'm starting to think that some traders are now agreeing with Cramer.

As for myself, my position has not changed from last week. I think that it's a "Trading Market" and I will force myself to buy any serious drop and then force myself to sell on the rebound. At the same time, I should remind myself to always have a huge cash position so that I can capitalize on any buying opportunity.

Finally, the Central Banksters will be meeting in Jackson Hole on Aug 26. It's not too far away and I think that some traders have already pared down their positions, in anticipation of the volatility coming from that event.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (34% from 38% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 15% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 36% (14 Counters)
c. US: 14% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 31% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$67.69 from US$73.72 last week from US$72.17 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1764 from US$1812 from US$1802;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$24.33 from US$25.55 from US$25.24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.34 from US$4.48 from US$4.46;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$43143 from US$41610 from US$33673 @ 11.20PM on Aug 7, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons but will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
f. AMZN may accept Bitcoin?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - RiskOn (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 36 from 24 from 32

1. US Equities - Higher; 4437 from 4395 from 4412;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Stong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy".
d. No trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 26179 from 25961 from 27322;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Traded Alibaba
d. Traded Meituan
d. Traded Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3458 from 3397 from 3550;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3177 from 3167 from 3157;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27820 from 27284 from 27548;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1490 from 1495 from 1523;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade. I'm amazed with the number of "no-name" stocks that have appeared on the "Top Turnover" daily. It tells me that the syndicates are very active and the fund managers are hibernating.


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 7 @ 11.40 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.23 from 109.68 last week from 110.28 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1146 from 3.1160 from 3.1066;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.7356 from 0.7346 from 0.7356;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. No more Australian Equities and Cash
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1764 from 1.1869 from 1.1774;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7798 from 7.7722 from 7.7707;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.2189 from 4.2204 from 4.2230;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.3545 from 1.3543 from 1.3597;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4832 from 6.4614 from 6.4727;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Lower; 1.3874 from 1.3904 from 1.3754;
a. No more GBP Cash
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.80 from 92.17 from 92.87;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.31% from 1.23% from 1.29%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.21% from 0.19% from 0.21%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.09 from 109.77 from 109.67;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.38 from 87.84 from 87.78;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3371 from 3292 from 3103; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 15, 2021

Bulls Bears.jpg

Bulls versus Bears

The markets did not go anywhere for the week so it may be timely to review the latest Bullish and Bearish views as well the news on Liquidity in the market.

A. Bullish View (from Cramer):-
1. Continuosly Strong Earnings
2. Feds Keeping Rates Low
3. Lots Of Cash On Sidelines
4. Meme Frenzy: Shorts Beware
5. Washington Policy: Child Tax Credits, Infrastructure Programs etc.
6. Bearish Hedge Funds Getting Crushed

B. Bearish View ( from Sevens Report)
1. Mentions of inflation on corporate earnings calls, has continued to accelerate.
2. Weakening profit margin outlooks.
3. Corporate sentiment appears to be peaking

c. Liquidity

The amount of Liquidity in the market can be done by looking at the "Marshallian K" indicator. This is the gap between "the rates of growth in money supply" and "gross domestic product".

The Marshallian " indicator just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising much faster than the M2 account.


In view of the above, I think that this is still a "Trading Market". Therefore, I will continue to trade any convincing story ie. take any small profits and not sit on the positions else I may lose those small profits later.

At the same time, I may need to also remind myself that if a stock has dropped a lot and is touching the long term resistance level, then it could be the time to sit on that stock and not trade it. Normally, a "W" or "Triple Bottom" would be forming on the charts.

For next week, I would be watching the political situation in Malaysia. The situation is very fluid and I have not bought any Malaysian shares for a while.

In HK, I would be watching the earnings of Tencent, Geely and Smoore.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (31% from 34% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 17% (3 Counters)
b. HK: 25% (7 Counters)
c. US: 20% (8 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 38% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 22%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$68.03 from US$67.69 last week from US$73.72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Sell" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Sell"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
f. US Summer Driving
g. When will Iranian Oil be available?
h. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1782 from US$1764 from US$1812;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell" from "Neutral"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$23.74 from US$24.33 from US$25.55;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$4.36 from US$4.34 from US$4.48;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$43143 from US$41610 from US$33673 @ 11.20PM on Aug 7, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons but will accept Bitcoin again if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
f. AMZN and AMC may accept Bitcoin
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - RiskOn (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 43 from 36 from 24

1. US Equities - Higher; 4468 from 4437 from 4395;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4370
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Stong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy";
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy".
d. Bought SLV (Silver ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 26392 from 26179 from 25961;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Alibaba
d. Traded Tencent
e. Sold Smoore
f. Sold China Conch Cement
g. Sold A50 ETF (2822)
h. Sold China Overseas Land

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3516 from 3458 from 3397;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. Sold 2822 (A50 ETF) listed in HK

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3165 from 3177 from 3167;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27977 from 27820 from 27284;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1505 from 1490 from 1495;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Aug 14 @ 7.10 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 109.60 from 110.23 last week from 109.68 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1274 from 3.1146 from 3.1160;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7380 from 0.7356 from 0.7346;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. No more Australian Equities and Cash
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1796 from 1.1764 from 1.1869;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7831 from 7.7798 from 7.7722;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2375 from 4.2189 from 4.2204;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3550 from 1.3545 from 1.3543;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 3Q, 2021?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4773 from 6.4832 from 6.4614;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3868 from 1.3874 from 1.3904;
a. No more GBP Cash
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 92.52 from 92.80 from 92.17;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.28% from 1.31% from 1.23%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.21% ftom 0.21% from 0.19%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.16 from 109.09 from 109.77;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.46 from 87.38 from 87.84;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3566 from 3371 from 3292; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 22, 2021

Tailwind.png

Tailwinds For Stocks

The US markets didn't go anywhere this week while the Chinese and HK markets nose-dived.

In this type of situation, it's very easy to be overwhelmed by the doom and gloom.
Therefore, I'm forcing myself to look at the tailwinds for stocks.

The following is from Forbes:-

Tailwind #1 for stocks: Big US Earnings beats. About nine out of ten companies beat estimates, with earnings growth of better than 90% (compared to the same period last year).

Tailwind #2 for stocks: The House will return to Capitol Hill next week to rubber stamp the $4.5 trillion of government spending.

Tailwind #3 for stocks: The Fed will continue to promote ultra-easy financial conditions for at least the better part of the next year.

Tailwind #4 for stocks: Oil prices are 19% lower than a month ago.

In addition, the CNN Fear-Greed Index is now at Extreme Fear (25). That's an extremely Oversold Condition and normally, it will lead to a bounce soon.

I still think that this is a "Trading Market" so I have gone shopping this week. However, if the market continues to dive again next week, especially China and HK, then I may need to review my assumption next week-end.

For next week, we have the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting on Aug 26-28. Most "experts" are expecting them to say that the tapering will be coming soon but not so soon yet. (I think they will try to hold it off as long as possible until the stimulus money hits the markets).

My exposure to Equities is now at 40% of my Liquid Assets. This is at my maximum level for the current situation. Therefore, I need to remind myself to apply some brakes to my buying.

I can get carried away easily when I see "cheap" prices. But cheap can also become cheaper very quickly in this type of market.

In HK, the Hang Seng Index compiler didnt include any China Tech stocks for their next quarter benchmark revamp. Do they know something that you dont, about those continous tech regulations on the Mainland?

Finally, the Biden Adminstration has lost a lot of credibility this week. Seeing Biden justify his actions in Afghanistan, tells me that the world will no longer be looking at the US anymore, especially as a moral compass.

I'm not sure how this will translate to investment matters but I would certainly be switching the TV Channel now whenever Biden is speaking. (It took me a year before I switch the channel whenever Trump is speaking. With Biden, it's half the time).

At this rate of decline for the Biden Administration, I think that the Democrats could lose the Mid-Term Election. That's actually not a bad thing, as check and balances are always needed.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Max (40% from 31% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries;
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 36% (13 Counters)
c. US: 16% (8 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 29% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country. At the same time, I should try to limit the number of stocks to 20 else I wont be on top of the stories on the counter.

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 22%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. UUS$68.03 from US$67.69 last week from US$73.72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Sell" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. When will Iranian Oil be available?
f. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Flat. US$1783 from US$1782 from US$1764;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Sell" from "Strong Sell"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$22.97 from US$23.74 from US$24.33;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.14 from US$4.36 from US$4.34;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$48,937 from US$43143 from US$41610 @ 3.30PM on Aug 21, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla will accept Bitcoin if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
f. AMZN and AMC may accept Bitcoin
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)


CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear: 25 from 43 from 36;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4442 from 4468 from 4437;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4480
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Stong Buy" from "Neutral"
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Neutral"
d. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24850 from 26392 from 26179;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought WH Group
e. Bought Smoore
f. Bought Ping An
g. Bought China Telecom
h. Bought Meituan
i. Added to ASM Pacific
j. Added to Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3427 from 3516 from 3458;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3103 from 3165 from 3177;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. Bought Nanofilm
c. Bought Riverstone

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27013 from 27977 from 27820;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1518 from 1505 from 1490;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Traded Destini


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 21 @ 3.45 PM)


1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 109.79 from 109.60 last week from 110.23 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.1093 from 3.1274 from 3.1146;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7380 from 0.7356 from 0.7346;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1699 from 1.1796 from 1.1764;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7910 from 7.7831 from 7.7798;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2381 from 4.2375 from 4.2189;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3631 from 1.3550 from 1.3545;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.5017 from 6.4773 from 6.4832;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3624 from 1.3868 from 1.3874;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 93.50 from 92.52 from 92.80;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.26% from 1.28% from 1.31%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.23% from 0.21% ftom 0.21%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 108.96 from 109.16 from 109.09;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.29 from 87.46 from 87.38;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 4092 from 3566 from 3371; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 29, 2021

sept.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It will be a new month next week and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in markets next week.

In addition, the Jackson Hole Meeting was a non-event and the markets seemed to like what Powell was saying. (Does that not tells you about the IQ level of the markets or the machines?).

Anyway, MarketWatch also had a bullish article recently:-
1. Strong momentum for stocks
2. Earnings remain impressive
3. Fed tapering fears abating
4. Wall Street remains bullish; Roughly 56% of analyst recommendations on S&P 500 stocks are “buy” or equivalent. That’s the most since 2002.
5. Housing market “wealth effect”. In July, median home prices were up an impressive 18.4% over the prior year.
6. Core inflation is ok vs. food and energy
7. Bigger picture, inflation doesn’t equal a bear market anyway
8. What’s the alternative now? TINA
9. Most investors should ignore short-term trends anyhow

While Citi had a bearish report:-
1. The Federal Reserve’s discussion on tapering may spook the markets
2. Rising Inflation
3. Pressure on Profit Margins and
4. Corporate Tax Hikes

As for myself, nothing has really changed from last week. I still think that it's a "Trading Market".

However, it's good to remind myself that the S&P 500 has already doubled from the March 2020 low. That move is not normal as markets are supposed to rise only 7% a year.

Margins for US stock trading are also decreasing, implying that people are cutting back on their risk-taking and trading.

As for myself, I have also reduced some of my positions. I dont know when the correction would be coming (if it ever comes) but it does not hurt to take some small profits and raise some Cash for deployment during any dips.

I also had too many counters and need to reduce the number of counters.

There's also no catalyst for the markets until Window Dressing season, at the end of September.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (36% from 40% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Max: 20 Counters
a. Singapore: 15% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 35% (9 Counters)
c. US: 17% (8 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 33% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$68.72 from USS$68.03 last week from US$67.69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Sell" from "Sell"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. When will Iranian Oil be available?
f. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1820 from US$1783 from US$1782;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$24.04 from US$22.97 from US$23.74;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.32 from US$4.14 from US$4.36;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$49166 from US$48,937 from US$43143 @ 8.40 AM on Aug 28, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla will accept Bitcoin if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
f. AMZN and AMC may accept Bitcoin
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral Fear: 50 from 25 from 43;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4509 from 4442 from 4468 from 4437;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4480
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Stong Buy"
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
d. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25408 from 24850 from 26392;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold WH Group
d. Sold Smoore
e. Sold China Telecom
f. Sold Meituan
g. Traded Tencent
h. Traded Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3522 from 3427 from 3516;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3081 from 3103 from 3165;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. Sold Nanofilm

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27641 from 27013 from 27977;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1590 from 1518 from 1505;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Traded Destini


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Aug 27 @ 7.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.16 from 109.79 last week from 109.60 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.1021 from 3.1093 from 3.1274;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7250 from 0.7380 from 0.7356;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1759 from 1.1699 from 1.1796;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Flat. 7.7910 from 7.7910 from 7.7831;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1903 from 4.2381 from 4.2375;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3508 from 1.3631 from 1.3550;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4776 from 6.5017 from 6.4773;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3707 from 1.3624 from 1.3868;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 93.04 from 93.50 from 92.52;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227


Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.34% from 1.26% from 1.28%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 0.24% from 0.23% from 0.21%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.50 from 108.96 from 109.16;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.72 from 87.29 from 87.46;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 4195 from 4092 from 3566; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 29, 2021

climbing-a-wall-of-worry.jpg

Climbing A Wall Of Worry

The markets have been grinding higher but I do not think that there is any more catalyst on the horizon, for the markets to go higher.

The next catalyst could be "Window Dressing" in late September.

Anyway, Barron's had an article recently, on why the stock-market isnt ready to blow up yet:-

1. US Transaction Volumes Are Improving.
When more market participants are transacting and they are bidding prices higher, it’s a vote of confidence in the market.

2. The US rally has been broad-based
Many stocks have participated. For example, almost 80% of stocks listed on the NYSE have been gaining,

However, "The Street" also has the following warnings:-

1. The equity's market cap has grown to be more than two times GDP and is now in uncharted territory.

2. Rising property valuations of homes and the interest in NFTs are signs of a bubble.


As for myself, things have not changed much from last week. I still think that it's a "Trading Market" and I will continue to trade any strong conviction story.

Some of my friends and relatives are now afraid of a correction, say 5% but I think that you could also get a 10% rise first before you get that 5% correction.

Anyway, I'm cautiously bullish but have raised some Cash for the following reasons:-
1. It's now September, one of the "weakest" period of the year
2. The 20th Anniversary of 9/11 is just around the corner
3. The Delta strain is not disappearing and Lamda is slowly making it's way North from Peru
4. In Israel, where they have one of the highest vaccination rate (25% of the population already has a third shot), cases are actually increasing. In fact, Sweden has just banned everyone from Israel.
5. Tapering is just around the corner but I think that the Central Banksters wants to wait for the money from the Infrastructure Programs to hit the markets first


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (30% from 36% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Max: 20 Counters
a. Singapore: 16% (3 Counters)
b. HK: 29% (8 Counters)
c. US: 21% (8 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 35% (10 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 23%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)


1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$69.12 from US$68.72 last week from USS$68.03 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Sell"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. When will Iranian Oil be available?
f. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1830 from US$1820 from US$1783;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Neutral"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$24.80 from US$24.04 from US$22.97;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.34 from US$4.32 from US$4.14;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$49532 from US$49166 from US$48,937 @ 3.40 PM on Sep 3, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla will accept Bitcoin if it uses >50% Clean Energy.
f. AMZN, AMC etc. hwill be accepting Bitcoins
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral; 54 from 50 from 25;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4535 from 4509 from 4442;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4480
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
d. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25902 from 25408 from 24850;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold 1/2 ASM Pacific
d. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
e. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3582 from 3592 from 3522;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Flat; 3083 from 3081 from 3103;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 29128 from 27641 from 27013;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1589 from 1590 from 1518;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Traded Destini
b. Sold 1/5 Hume Cement


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Sep 3 @ 1.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 110.02 from 110.16 last week from 109.79 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0929 from 3.1021 from 3.1093;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7250 from 0.7380 from 0.7356;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.188 from 1.1759 from 1.1699;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Higher. 7.7718 from 7.7910 from 7.7910;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.152 from 4.1903 from 4.2381;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3424 from 1.3508 from 1.3631;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4595 from 6.4776 from 6.5017;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3835 from 1.3707 from 1.3624;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 92.19 from 93.04 from 93.50;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.30% from 1.34% from 1.26%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.21% from 0.24% from 0.23%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.88 from 109.50 from 108.96;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 88.00 from 87.72 from 87.29;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 4001 from 4195 from 4092; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Sep 12, 2021

fear1.jpg

Can You Feel The Fear?

The US Markets have been down for a week and sentiments are quite weak.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index is now at 34 (Fear).

The "experts" at Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America Corp, have been coming out with various warnings including;-
1. Valuations are at historical extremes
2. Stocks have rallied non-stop for seven months
3. The economy looks soft and
4. The Federal Reserve is preparing to taper stimulus

While Cramer has his own six warnings:-
1. Negative Pre-Announcements eg. supply chains issue
2. The Fed; Tapering
3. Higher Rates
4. Congress - Inflation; Stimulus Programs
5. Fresh Supply of Stocks eg. SPACs, IPOs etc.
6. Geopolitical Worries

And in China, the Big Techs are getting whacked again, from various regulatory issues.

The Delta variant is also spreading and that could affect the global economy while winter (flu season) is not too far away.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered is predicting that Bitcoin will reach US$100,000 this year. (Is that not a warning sign that you can get such prediction from a top bank?).

In view of the above, I have reminded myself to be not so adventurous with my purchases. And if I do still want to buy, I should deliberately put in a low-ball offer first, instead of chasing it.

Anyway, I think that the markets could be weak over the next month or two, except for the Window Dressing season, which could be a good time to trim some of my holdings.

For next week, we have the following:-
1. Sep 13: Malaysian Parliament Sitting
2. Sep 14: US CPI Numbers; Probably Non-Event


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (30% from 30% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Max: 20 Counters
a. Singapore: 18% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 36% (10 Counters)
c. US: 16% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 30% (13 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 24%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$69.69 from US$69.12 from US$68.72 last week from USS$68.03 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Buy" from "Neutral"
b. Demand is down about 10%?
c. Supply is up by about 10%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. When will Iranian Oil be available?
f. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80
g. SPR released by China is probably a non-event
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1789 from US$1830 from US$1820;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Neutral" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$23.76 from US$24.80 from US$24.04;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.43 from US$4.34 from US$4.32;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$45029 from US$49532 from US$49166 @ 11.40 AM on Sep 11, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. So what if Tesla, AMZN, AMC, El Salvador accept Bitcoin?
f. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear; 34 from 54 from 50;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4459 from 4535 from 4509;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4546
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Sell" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
d. Sold Becton Dickson (BDX)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 26206 from 25902 from 25408;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Smoore
d. Added to Tencent
e. Traded ASM Pacific
f. Traded JD.com

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3703 from 3582 from 3592;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3099 from 3083 from 3081;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. Bought Riverstone

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 30382 from 29128 from 27641;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1576 from 1589 from 1590;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Boustead Plantations
b. Bought TH Plantations
c. Bought Hap Seng Plantations
d. Added to K Power
e. Traded Destini


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Sep 11 @ 2.40 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 109.92 from 110.02 last week from 110.16 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0831 from 3.0929 from 3.1021;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7355 from 0.7250 from 0.7380;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1812 from 1.1880 from 1.1759;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7778 from 7.7718 from 7.7910;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1366 from 4.152 from 4.1903;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3417 from 1.3424 from 1.3508;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4443 from 6.4595 from 6.4776;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat; 1.3830 from 1.3835 from 1.3707;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.58 from 92.19 from 93.04;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.34% from 1.30% from 1.34%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.22% from 0.21% from 0.24%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.71 from 109.88 from 109.50;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.83 from 88.00 from 87.72;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 3864 from 4001 from 4195; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Sep 19, 2021

buy-sell-or-hold.jpg

Buy, Sell or Hold?

The markets have been very weak.

The S&P 500 has been down 8 out of 10 sessions.

The CNN Greed & Fear Index is still at 34 (Fear).

In HK, the Hang Seng Index has been down for the past 7 months, dropping >7000 points from the top in Febuary 2021.

Meanwhile, Cramer mentioned that there are few reasons to buy stocks and he is staying cautious on the market. His hesitancy also stems partly from the fact he’s not sure whether the three major overhangs - rising inflation, the coronavirus delta variant and a change to Federal Reserve policy - have really been resolved in the near term.

In addition, James “Rev Shark” Deporre mentioned that:-
1. Breadth is moving close to three-to-one negative
2. New 12-month highs have shrunk to 125
3. There are less than 10 stocks up more than 10% and
4. The selling is without much regard to fundamentals

The "Shark" also added that he is looking but with extreme caution, in a period that’s shaping up to be geared toward more sellers than buyers.

As for myself, I think that it's very easy to be swept by the negativity and fear. However, one must force oneself, to think independently and to maybe use the down-draft, to pick up some good quality counters (if any) for the medium term.

What's the use of sitting on a lot of Cash if I'm not going to deploy those Cash when prices have dropped a lot?

And after I have bought something, I need to also remind myself to sit on it a bit longer. I have a bad habit of taking small quick profits. If I'm buying close to the bottom (hopefully), I could easily miss the big upside later if I sell too early.

Anyway, the following are two sectors, that I have been forcing myself to buy. It's likely that I could be early but I need to force myself to buy else I may miss the big upside later. If I'm too early, then I will average down later. Hopefully, it would not be a problem as I'm buying "quality".

1. China Big Tech. If one is already assuming that regulatory issues will hit earnings by say 25%, isn't it time to buy, especially when prices are down >50%? Do you really think that the new regulations will hit earnings by >25%?

Do you really think that China (the 2nd Largest Economy) is uninvestable after prices have crashed? Why is it "investable" when prices are 50% more and "uninvestable" when prices are 50% lower?

2. Macau Casinos. Everyone knows that the 6 licenses would be expiring in June 2022. Yet when they announced the public consultation on the new law, it triggered a free-fall. If you assume that their earning would be hit by say 25% with the new law, wouldn't a > 50% fall in price, be too excessive?

Do you really think that the US Casinos will lose their licenses? (Does China want another round of sanctions on their goods?). Actually, I'm more worried about Covid19 affecting the Macau Casinos than this new law.

For next week, we have the following:-
Sep 20: Malaysia - IGB Commercial Reit IPO
Sep 22: US - FOMC Meeting: Tapering Schedule? Yawn Yawn;
Sep 27: Malaysia - 12th Malaysian Plan; Who will be getting the contracts?
< Sept 30: Window Dressing Season; Depending on the situation, I may sell some counters during Window Dressing, with the intention of buying them back in mid to late October.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (36% from 30% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 15% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 47% (13 Counters)
c. US: 14% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 24% (13 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 24%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$71.97 from US$69.69 last week from US$69.12 from two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy"
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. When will Iranian Oil be available?
f. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80
g. SPR released by China is probably a non-event
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1754 from US$1789 from US$1830;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Neutral" from "Neutral" from "Strong Buy"
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
e. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
f. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$22.36 from US$23.76 from US$24.80;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.24 from US$4.43 from US$4.34;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Higher. US$48,000 from US$45029 from US$49532 @ 12.00 PM on Sep 18, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. So what if Tesla, AMZN, AMC, El Salvador accept Bitcoin?
f. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
g. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear; 34 from 54 from 50;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4459 from 4535 from 4509;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4546
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Sell" from "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy"
c. Daily Dow Technical: "Strong Sell" from "Sell" from "Strong Buy"
d. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24921 from 26206 from 25902;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Meituan
d. Bought Galaxy
e. Bought Sands China
f. Added to Smoore
g. Traded ASM Pacific
h. Traded JD.com
i. Traded Ping An

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3614 from 3703 from 3582;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3071 from 3099 from 3083;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. Bought Riverstone

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 30500 from 30382 from 29128;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1549 from 1576 from 1589;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 18 @ 12.10 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 109.93 from 109.92 last week from 110.02 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0945 from 3.0831 from 3.0929;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7280 from 0.7355 from 0.7250;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1736 from 1.1812 from 1.1880;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7822 from 7.7778 from 7.7718;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1719 from 4.1366 from 4.152;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3482 from 1.3417 from 1.3424;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4662 from 6.4443 from 6.4595;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3741 from 1.3830 from 1.3835;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 93.20 from 92.58 from 92.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.36% from 1.34% from 1.30%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.23% from 0.22% from 0.21%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.95 from 109.71 from 109.88;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 88.00 from 87.83 from 88.00;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 4275 from 3864 from 4001; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Sep 26, 2021

Window Dressing.jpg

Window Dressing

The markets have been stabilizing and I think that it's due to Window Dressing activities. Anyway, it's the closing price on Thursday, Sept 30 that matters. Therefore, we may still have another 4 more days of upside.

Thereafter, we will also have the new money from the new month of October. Theoretically speaking, we could have another week of upside then.

However, I'm starting to see a lot of bearish articles on the markets lately including the following:-

1. Forbes
a. This correction (now 5% peak to trough) probably has some more downside.
b. Evergrande has conjured up some financial crisis speculation
c. The vaccine mandates have introduced a catalyst for an uptick in unemployment
d. Economic activity has softened some in the third quarter
e. The Atlanta Fed models have nearly cut the GDP estimate for the quarter in half
f. Upwards movement is probably just the filling of the gap on the downtrend

2. Deutche Bank
a. Economic growth is peaking and
b. Stock valuations remain elevated.

However, we did get a bullish report from Canaccord Genuity;-
a. The markets could very well climb into year-end
b. Cyclical stocks look attractive

As for myself, I will continue to trade this market ie. buy on severe dips and then sell on bullish rebounds.

For next week, I will be watching the following:-
1. Sep 27: Tabling of 12th Malaysian Plan
2. Sep 30: 3Q Window Dressing
3. Oct 1-7: China Golden Week Holidays


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (37% from 36% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 14% (4 Counters)
b. HK: 50% (14 Counters)
c. US: 13% (7 Counters)
d. Malaysia: 23% (14 Counters)
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. UUS$71.97 from US$69.69 last week from US$69.12 from two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 15%?
b. Supply is up by about 15%?
c. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
d. When will Iranian Oil be available?
e. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80
f. SPR released by China is probably a non-event
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1750 from US$1754 from US$1789;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$22.42 from US$22.36 from US$23.76;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.28 from US$4.24 from US$4.43;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; 32.15
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Higher. US$41,150 from US$48,000 from US$45029 @ 9.15 PM on Sep 24, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. So what if Tesla, AMZN, AMC, El Salvador accept Bitcoin?
f. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
g. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
h. How will the China Ban be affecting cryptos?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear; 34 from 54 from 50;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4455 from 4459 from 4535;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4546
b. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24192 from 24921 from 26206;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Geely Auto
d. Bought New World Development
e. Traded China Merchants Bank
f. Sold Meituan

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3613 from 3614 from 3703;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3061 from 3071 from 3099;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 30249 from 30500 from 30382;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1532 from 1549 from 1576;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought SCIB
b. Traded Destini


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 24 @ 9.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.66 from 109.93 last week from 109.92 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0933 from 3.0945 from 3.0831;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7252 from 0.7280 from 0.7355;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1715 from 1.1736 from 1.1812;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7850 from 7.7822 from 7.7778;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1885 from 4.1719 from 4.1366;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3541 from 1.3482 from 1.3417;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4676 from 6.4662 from 6.4443;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3685 from 1.3741 from 1.3830;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 93.35 from 93.20 from 92.58;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.45% from 1.36% from 1.34%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.27% from 0.23% from 0.22%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.87 from 109.95 from 109.71;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 88.04 from 88.00 from 87.83;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 4651 from 4275 from 3864; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 3, 2021

Storm.jpg

Calm Before The Storm?

The "New Money From The New Month" that is currently hitting the markets, would be over soon. Thereafter, the next catalyst will be the US Earnings Season. Therefore, we should have a period of calm of about two weeks before the US Earnings season.

Anyway, I'm still seeing a lot of bearish articles including from Forbes:-
1) Fed change in direction
2) Concern about the Chinese Financial System and
3) Potential U.S. government shutdown

This is despite the $5 trillion growth in money supply and despite the nearly $10 trillion in fiscal stimulus (either disbursed, in the process of being disbursed or on the table for Congressional approval).

And within these policies, wages were artificially reset higher by government subsidized unemployment.

Robert Kiyosaki also recently predicted that there would be an October Crash due to the high debt levels. Not sure why he is so sure that it would be in October as the high debt level has been there for years. Let's see whether this "expert" is really that accurate, to the exact month.

In addition, Bloomberg also had a negative article on the global headwinds:-
1. China Crunched - Energy, Evergrande, Housing, Common Prosperity, Regulatory Issues etc.
2. Costlier Food and Energy
3. Supply Squeezed - Semiconductors, Chemicals, Glass, Ports, Labour etc
4. Policy Problems - Delay in Bills approval, High Debt, Democrats Division etc.
5. Monetary Policy - Tapering, Inflation, Interest Rates, Powell's Reappointment

As for myself, I still think that it's still a "Trading Market". Any deep correction should still be bought and any strong technical rebound must then be sold into.

I still do not think that there would be any Black-Swan event appearing but the reason why they are called "Black-Swan" event is because they are unpredictable and unforeseen.

Anyway, I do have my eyes on the Emergency Exit but I would probably not be able to run that fast as I currently have too many counters in my portfolio ie. 39 counters. I have been trying to trim the number of counters to about 20 but it's not an easy task.

My cash level is still healthy though, at 60% of Liquid Assets. However, in a crash, that 40% exposure to Equities can be still very painful.

Therefore, I should remind myself to continuosly work at reducing my exposure to Equities, during the coming period of calm before the storm.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (40% from 37% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 13% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 43% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 16% (9 Counters); Unable to trade due to time difference; To buy & hold ETFs instead.
d. Malaysia: 24% (14 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$75.72 from US$71.97 last week from US$69.69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 15%?
b. Supply is up by about 15%?
c. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
d. When will Iranian Oil be available?
e. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80
f. SPR released by China is probably a non-event
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1761 from US$1750 from US$1754;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$22.56 from US$22.42 from US$22.36;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.21 from US$4.28 from US$4.24;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; 43.55 from 32.15
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.


Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Higher. US$47,583 from US$41,150 from US$48,000 @ 6.30 PM on Oct 02, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. So what if Tesla, AMZN, AMC, El Salvador accept Bitcoin?
f. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
g. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
h. How will the China Ban be affecting cryptos?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear; 27 from 34 from 54;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4357 from 4455 from 4459;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4546
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 22
c. Bought ARKF (FinTech)
d. Bought ARKG (Genomics)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24576 from 24192 from 24921;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Added to ASM Pacific
d. Traded Evergrande NEV 0708
e. Sold 1/2 Sands China
f. Sold New World Development

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3568 from 3613 from 3614;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3051 from 3061 from 3071;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 28771 from 30249 from 30500;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1525 from 1532 from 1549;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought SCIB
b. Bought KPower
c. Traded Destini


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 2 @ 6.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 111.08 from 110.66 last week from 109.93 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0802 from 3.0933 from 3.0945;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.7259 from 0.7252 from 0.7280;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1596 from 1.1715 from 1.1736;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Flat. 7.7850 from 7.7850 from 7.7822;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat. 4.1829 from 4.1885 from 4.1719;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3580 from 1.3541 from 1.3482;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4463 from 6.4676 from 6.4662;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3546 from 1.3685 from 1.3741;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 94.04 from 93.35 from 93.20;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.47% from 1.45% from 1.36%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 0.27% from 0.27% from 0.23%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.20 from 109.87 from 109.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.41 from 88.04 from 88.00;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 5202 from 4651 from 4275; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 10, 2021

Sentiments.jpg

Weak Sentiments?

For the past week, most of the investing articles were quite bearish:-

1. Forbes
For the upcoming 3Q US Earnings, twenty S&P 500 companies were talking about inflation from:-
a. Labor costs
b. Supply Chain Disruptions
c. Freight Costs
d. Commodity costs
e. Covid costs

2. Stifel:-
The Sword of Damocles hanging over the market includes:-
a. Rising interest rates
b. Federal Reserve tapering due to begin soon
c. Big increases in energy costs
d. Ongoing supply chain issues
e. Stagflation worries
f. Wall Street analysts that are not nearly as positive on the upcoming earnings
g. Debt ceiling and
h. China worries

3. Goldman Sachs
Four risks to investors from upcoming corporate earnings reports:
a. Supply chain bottlenecks
b. Climbing oil prices
c. Inflationary labor costs and
d. Slowing China economic growth.

4. Market Watch
Central banks need to prepare because:-
a. Global stock markets are overvalued
b. Real estate are overvalued
c. Leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.

5. Morgan Stanley
A 20% plunge in U.S. stocks is a real possibility from:-
a. Growing supply-side crisis around the world.
b. Earnings season will do little to temper commodity-fueled inflation fears
c. Pent-up consumer demand fizzles out.
d. Treasury selloff extended for a third day
e. Retail investors have become increasingly absent as buyers of the dip

6. Stifel:-
Take some precautions right now:-
1. Take Profits
2. Stick With Safety
3. Sell the Meme Stocks
4. Add a Hedge
5. Go to Cash

7. Barclays;-
Recommends value stocks -- cheap, typically cyclical names like banks and energy
producers, that tend to gain along with bond yields.

As for myself, I think that maybe it's time to be a bit more careful. I'm no longer buying on any dip but am waiting longer before buying any steep corrections.

Also, if I dont take quick small profits, those profits would no longer be there the next day. So I need to force myself to sell whenever there are small profits. It's no longer a "Buy & Hold" market anymore.

For next week, we have the following:-
1. Oct 11-17: IMF Annual meeting; Probably Non-Event
2. Oct 13: US CPI: Probably Non-Event; Who does not know that inflation is rising?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (38% from 40% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 14% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 45% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 16% (9 Counters); Unable to trade due to time difference; To buy & hold ETFs instead.
d. Malaysia: 23% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$79.58 from US$75.72 last week from US$71.97 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. Demand is down about 15%?
b. Supply is up by about 15%?
c. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
d. When will Iranian Oil be available?
e. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80
f. SPR released by China is probably a non-event
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1757 from US$1761 from US$1750;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$22.68 from US$22.56 from US$22.42;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.28 from US$4.21 from US$4.28;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$32.15 from US$32.15 from US$32.15
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$54,205 from US$47,583 from US$41,150 @ 9.08 AM on Oct 09, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. So what if Tesla, AMZN, AMC, El Salvador accept Bitcoin?
f. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
g. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
h. How will the China Ban be affecting cryptos?
i. Soros is now trading Bitcoins too?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear; 34 from 27 from 34;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4392 from 4357 from 4455;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4546
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 22
c. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24838 from 24576 from 24192;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Traded Fosun Pharma

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3592 from 3568 from 3613;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3113 from 3051 from 3061;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 28049 from 28771 from 30249;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1564 from 1525 from 1532;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 1/2 KPower
b. Sold Boustead Plantations
c. Sold TH Plantations
d. Traded Destini


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Oct 9 @ 9.20 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 112.25 from 111.08 last week from 110.66 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0841 from 3.0802 from 3.0933;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7309 from 0.7259 from 0.7252;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1576 from 1.1596 from 1.1715;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Flat. 7.7846 from 7.7850 from 7.7850;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.1782 from 4.1829 from 4.1885;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3550 from 1.3580 from 1.3541;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4440 from 6.4463 from 6.4676;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3616 from 1.3546 from 1.3685;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Flat; 94.07 from 94.04 from 93.35;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.61% from 1.47% from 1.45%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.32% from 0.27% from 0.27%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 108.45 from 109.20 from 109.87;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.76 from 87.41 from 88.04;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 5526 from 5202 from 4651; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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