Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 22)

[eauyong]

Next week, some trading opportunities.

+ Suez Canal Blockage
+ Vietnam 1st quarter GDP
+ CNPC Standing Committee on HK electoral system
+ Bilibili's Hong Kong debut. Tech going forward.
+ AirAsia results
+ Renesas factory update
+ Chinese airline results
+ Foxconn EV push
+ Huawei shows numbers
+ Evergrande's $110bn question
+ WEF gender gap report
+ Verdict for Jimmy Lai
+ BOJ Tankan
+ Taiwan's first bubble
+ Vietnam picks new president

[winston]

Hi eauyong,

Very nice hearing from you.

Thanks for the kind investment ideas.

Not sure I'm able to trade anything from the Suez Canal issue. Not sure how long it will take move that ship.

I was thinking of the Bilibili IPO but because of the weakness in Tech and the fact that they are already listed in the US, I think it may just end up to be as exciting as Baidu's IPO.

Thanks and take care,
Winston

[winston]

TOL @ Apr 4, 2021

Cockroaches.jpg

Only Two Cockroaches?

There were some Margin Calls at Archegos last week and till date, CS and Nomura have sustained some losses.

Besides Archegos, there were also some losses at another hedge fund, Teng Yue Partners.

The initial damage was estimated to be around US$6b. It has now been revised upwards to US$10b.

Will there be only these two cockroaches this time or will we see a few more cockroaches in the near future?

Anyway, in a world of US$14t of "Helicopter Money", that US$10b losses seemed like "peanuts".

The following are some numbers on Margin Debts:-
1. Before the Pandemic, the highest amount of Margin Debt was around US$670b in May 2018
2. At the height of the Pandemic, Margin Debt dropped to around US$480b in March 2020
3. As of Feb 2021, Margin Debt has increased to US$815b

I think that as long as the tech stocks do not continue to drop sharply and for an extended period, this episode should probably be over quite soon.

I think that there are probably "bigger things" to worry about including:-

1. Inflation (or Stagflation); Over the past quarter, the following are some increases:-
a. Lean hogs up 50%
b. Lumber up 41%
c. Crude oil up 25%
d. Copper up 14%
e. European stocks up 10%
f. Japanese stocks up 8%
g. U.S. stocks (S&P 500) up 7%
etc.

2. Higher US Corporate Taxes; Proposals include the following:-
a. Raising the US corporate tax rate to 28 percent from 21 percent
b. Forcing MNCs to pay significantly more in tax to the US, on profits they earn and book overseas.
c. May require 15 years of higher taxes on corporations, to pay for eight years of infrastructure spending
d. Taxing E-Commerce companies like AMZN; (Biden actually singled out AMZN for not paying taxes)
etc.

3. Rolling Covid19 Lockdowns

etc.

At the same time, US Employment Numbers are getting better, the Global Economy is improving, Economies are slowly opening up etc.

I'm not sure whether the stock-markets are being priced for perfection. Therefore, I have not been trading much lately. And until I see things improve significantly, it's not likely that I would be buying anything unless there's a very convincing story.

As for next week, there could be some money flowing into the markets from the new month. Therefore, we could have a spike in the markets early next week unless the Fund Managers have already spent those money in advance, over the past few days.

Finally, I'm picking up some news on Russian tanks movement towards Ukraine. Will this be the start of a war?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (30% from 29% last week from 29% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (87% from 81% from 82%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: No Progress (26 from 26 from 27)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$61.30 from US$60.73 last week from US$61.46 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: Neutral from Sell last week
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Flat. US$1730 from US$1731 from US$1744;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: Neutral from Neutral last week
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US#25.03 from US$25.11 from US$26.33
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.02 from US$4.08 from US$4.10;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$59536 from US$54570 last week from US$58517 two weeks ago (@ 4.45 PM on April 2, 2021)
a. Record: US$61361
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 58 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 58 from 52 last week from 61 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4020 from 3975 last week from 3913 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: Strong Buy from Neutral last week
c. Sold Coupang (CPNG)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 28939 from 28336 from 28991
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought China Overseas Land

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3484 from 3418 from 3405;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3182 from 3158 from 3135;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers being back soon
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 29854 from 29177 from 29792;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1601 from 1626 from 1600;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 2 @ 6.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.47 from 109.62 last week from 108.80 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0802 from 3.0810 from 3.0678;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7611 from 0.7631 from 0.7762;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1780 from 1.1772 from 1.1927;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7754 from 7.7694 from 7.7667;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1400 from 4.1465 from 4.1160;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3442 from 1.3459 from 1.3417;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Thinking of converting some SGD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.5621 from 6.5416 from 6.5059;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3834 from 1.3791 from 1.3939;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.86 from 92.77 from 91.77;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 1.67% from 1.67% last week from 1.73% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.16% from 0.14% from 0.15%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.64 from 108.51 from 107.56;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.07 from 86.92 from 86.06;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2072 from 2178 from 2215; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL @ Apr 11, 2021

Risk Mgt.jpg

Where's the Risk Management?

Bill Hwang supposedly lost US$20b in two days. How can this happened to one of the star traders of our time?

What happened to his Risk Management? Where was his Trailing Stop-Loss? Where was his Position Sizing? Where was his Asset Allocation?

Maybe when playing at that level, you think that you are infallible. Maybe when playing at that level, you think that there's nothing more to learn. Well, maybe Bill Hwang should have learnt from Nick Leeson, who took down Barings Bank.

And it's timely to remind myself of the following:-
"Whoever that the gods want to destroy, they first make him confident".

I still cannot believed that he lost US$20b in two days!

So are there any more cockroaches out there, besides Archegos and Teng Yue Partners? The only other news that I saw is that JPM was selling a large block of ASO but there is no follow-up news on it.

The other event this week was the FOMC Minutes:-
a. Short Term Rates will be kept at Zero
b. The US$120b minimum monthly bond buying will continue
c. GDP is expected to be 6.5%
d. Inflation is expected to be 2.2%; This is above their own target of 2%.
e. Unemployment is expected to be 4.5% end 2021
And he can tell you with a straight face that inflation will not be an issue even though they are behind the curve.

At the same time, the Chinese are slowly tightening up on things and are behaving more responsibly (this time). Even the Japanese are reviewing their QE.

For next week, I will be keeping an eye on the following:-
1. April 12: White House Chip Summit
2. April 14: Coinbase IPO
3. Start of US Earnings Season


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (30% from 30% last week from 29% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress (87% from 87% from 81%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (24 from 26 from 26)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$59.34 from US$61.30 last week from US$60.73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: Neutral from Sell last week
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1745 from US$1730 from US$1731;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: Neutral from Neutral last week
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$25.31 from US$25.03 from US$25.11;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.05 from US$4.02 from US$4.08;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$60189 from US$59536 last week from US$54570 two weeks ago (@ 12.20 PM on April 10, 2021)
a. Record: US$61361
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 60 from 58 last week from 52 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4129 from 4020 last week from 3975 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: Strong Buy from Neutral last week
c. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28666 from 28939 from 28336
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3451 from 3484 from 3418;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3182 from 3158 from 3135;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers being back soon
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 29768 from 29854 from 29177;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1601 from 1626 from 1600;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Traded Supermax
b. Sold Hartalega
c. Sold Top Glove


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Apr 9 @ 2.15 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 109.43 from 110.47 last week from 109.62 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0834 from 3.0802 from 3.0810;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7608 from 0.7611 from 0.7631;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1891 from 1.1780 from 1.1772;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7794 from 7.7754 from 7.7694;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1377 from 4.1400 from 4.1465;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3418 from 1.3442 from 1.3459;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.5567 from 6.5621 from 6.5416;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3708 from 1.3834 from 1.3791;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 92.24 from 92.86 from 92.77;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.65% from 1.67% last week from 1.67% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 0.16% from 0.16% from 0.14%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.98 from 108.64 from 108.51;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.26 from 87.07 from 86.92;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2088 from 2072 from 2178; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL @ Apr 18, 2021

Earnings.jpg

Q1 Earnings Season

It's earnings season again so it's timely to see what are the espectations for both the US and Chinese firms:-


1. US Companies:-

For the American companies, FactSet data shows analysts anticipate Q1 S&P 500 earnings will surge by 25% when compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the receding impact of the COVID-19 health crisis on several industries.

If confirmed, Q1 2021 would mark the highest year-over-year (Y-o-Y) growth in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2018, when tax cuts under Trump drove a surge in profit growth.

At the sector level, nine are projected to report Y-o-Y earnings growth, led by the Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials sectors.

On the other hand, two sectors are predicted to report a decline in earnings from the year-ago period, led by the Industrial and Energy sectors.

Revenue expectations are also encouraging, with sales growth predicted to rise 6.4% from the same period a year earlier. If confirmed, it will mark the highest Y-o-Y revenue growth reported by the index since Q4 2018.

Eight sectors are anticipated to report Y-o-Y revenue growth, led by the Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services sectors.

In contrast, three are predicted to report an annualized drop in sales growth, led once again by the Energy and Industrials sectors.


2. Chinese Companies

As for Chinese firms, earnings are expected to jump more than 50 percent in the first quarter and China's first-quarter GDP is estimated to surge by 19 percent.

The firms are set to report that net income surged by 55% in the first quarter thanks to the ongoing economic recovery, with cyclical firms leading gains, according to Goldman Sachs.

Some firms within the cyclical sectors could report earnings doubling from depressed levels a year earlier, after commodity prices jumped and foreign demand rebounded.

The so-called new China sectors, including technology shares, are estimated to see earnings rise by 48 percent year on year.

Overall, expectations are quite high for both American and Chinese companies, going into earnings season. Does that mean that that the probability is high for any earnings disappointment?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (29% from 30% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (82% from 87% from 87%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (23 from 24 from 26)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$59.34 from US$61.30 last week from US$60.73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: Neutral from Sell last week
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1745 from US$1730 from US$1731;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: Neutral from Neutral last week
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$25.31 from US$25.03 from US$25.11;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.05 from US$4.02 from US$4.08;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$60189 from US$59536 last week from US$54570 two weeks ago (@ 12.20 PM on April 10, 2021)
a. Record: US$61361
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 59 from 60 last week from 58 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4185 from 4129 last week from 4020 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: Strong Buy from Neutral last week
c. Bought Uber

2. HK Equities - Higher. 28970 from 28666 from 28939
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Sold Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3427 from 3451 from 3484;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3202 from 3182 from 3158;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers coming back soon
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 29684 from 29768 from 29854;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1608 from 1601 from 1626;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Apr 16 @ 8.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 108.84 from 109.43 last week from 110.47 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0949 from 3.0834 from 3.0802;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7744 from 0.7608 from 0.7611;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1981 from 1.1891 from 1.1780;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7727 from 7.7794 from 7.7754;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1270 from 4.1377 from 4.1400;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3335 from 1.3418 from 1.3442;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.5197 from 6.5567 from 6.5621;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3801 from 1.3708 from 1.3834;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 91.58 from 92.24 from 92.86;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.59% from 1.65% last week from 1.67% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.17% from 0.16% from 0.16%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.22 from 108.98 from 108.64;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.48 from 87.26 from 87.07;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2323 from 2088 from 2072; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL @ Apr 25, 2021

Sell In May.jpg

Sell In May?

We will be touching May soon and it's traditionally a weak period for the markets.

In the past, the markets were weak because the traders would sell down their holdings before they go away for their summer holidays.

Nowadays, eventhough they are away on holidays, they can still trade on their smartphones. However, it would not be as often as when they are in front of their PCs.

For this year, it's likely that the traders would be going further away as they were probably under the lockdown last year. Therefore, I can see turnover decreasing and the markets being more volatile because of the lower volume.

BTW, Cramer has a very good article on why he thinks that it's better to be a bit careful at this point in time due to the following headwinds:-
1. Earnings Results
2. Inflation
3. Stock Glut
4. Covid-19
5. S&P Oscillator
6. Semiconductor Shortage
7. Foreign Policy

If you are interested in the article, this is the link:-
viewtopic.php?f=42&t=739&hilit=cramer&start=40

In addition, people have to now also worry about the higher "Capital Gains Tax on the Wealthy" although I think that it would be a non-event for a while.

And for the followers of Technical Analysis, I'm starting to see a few articles that mentioned that there would be a correction soon. If you are interested in reading more about them, the following is the link:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=10031&p=242841&hilit=Market+Timing#p242841

For next week, there's nothing much happening except for the "Pink Supermoon" on April 27. Therefore, it's very likely that I would not be doing much trading again.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (27% from 29% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (76% from 82% from 87%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 65%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (21 from 23 from 24)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$62.05 from US$59.34 last week from US$61.30 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: Neutral from Sell last week
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1777 from US$1745 from US$1730;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: Neutral from Neutral last week
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$26.04 from US$25.31 from US$25.03;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.33 from US$4.05 from US$4.02;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$49604 from US$60189 last week from US$59536 two weeks ago (@ 9.40 PM on April 24, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 61 from 59 last week from 60 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4180 from 4185 last week from 4129 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: Strong Buy from Strong Buy last week from Neutral two weeks ago
c. Traded Coupang

2. HK Equities - Higher. 29078 from 28970 from 28666
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Sold ASM Pacific

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3474 from 3427 from 3451;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3194 from 3202 from 3182;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers coming back soon
b. Sold 1/2 Riverstone

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 29021 from 29684 from 29768;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1608 from 1601 from 1626;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Apr 23 @ 3.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 107.94 from 108.84 last week from 109.43 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.0940 from 3.0949 from 3.0834;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR again
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.7739 from 0.7744 from 0.7608;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2049 from 1.1981 from 1.1891;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7626 from 7.7727 from 7.7794;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1085 from 4.1270 from 4.1377;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3277 from 1.3335 from 1.3418;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4919 from 6.5197 from 6.5567;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3886 from 1.3801 from 1.3708;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 91.08 from 91.58 from 92.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.57% from 1.59% last week from 1.65% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.15% from 0.17% from 0.16%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 108.84 from 109.22 from 108.98;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.14 from 87.48 from 87.26;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2750 from 2323 from 2088; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL @ May 02, 2021

bearish 1.png

The Only Reason To Be Bearish?

It's a new month and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have at least one spike in the markets next week unless the Fund Managers have already spent their cash in advance this week.

With regards to US 1Q Earnings, we are now at over 30% of the earnings announcement. The average revenue surprise is over 3% for the entire market and the average earnings surprise is over 22%.

Some 86.8% of S&P 500 companies reporting results, beat Wall Street forecasts and are doing so by an average of 23.5%.

These are the largest ever recorded gaps, according to Refinitiv's data, which dates back to 1994.

Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is currently on pace to total 44.7% in the first quarter, which would be the best in over a decade.

With regards to Market Sentiment, there seems to be some euphoria as seen in the following:-

1. In the "Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Managers Survey".
Cash holdings for these fund managers are near the lowest that we’ve seen in the past decade. 62% of them are overweight stocks right now. That’s the second-highest reading since the data begins in 2002.

2. In the "American Association of Individual Investors (“AAII”) surveys".
57% of respondents were bullish on stocks. That’s also one of the highest readings that we’ve seen over the past decade.

In addition, we also have the "helicopter money" from the Feds and the various stimulus money from Biden.

So there's really no reason to be bearish:-
1. Revenue and Earnings are beating expectations
2. Fund Managers are overweight on Equities
3. Individual Investors are bullish
4. There's plenty of "helicopter money" both from the Feds and the Biden Administration.

However, according to BoA, "The only reason to be bearish is… there is no reason to be bearish.”

I agree with the analysis from the BoA . So for next week, I would not be doing much trading again unless there's any special situation.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (30% from 27% last week from 29% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (77% from 76% from 82%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 65%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (25 from 21 from 23)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$63.48 from US$62.05 last week from US$59.34 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Neutral" last week from "Sell" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1769 from US$1777 from US$1745;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Buy" from "Neutral" last week from "Neutral" two weeks ago
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$25.92 from US$26.04 from US$25.31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.46 from US$4.33 from US$4.05;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$58304 from US$49604 last week from US$60189 two weeks ago (@ 12.15 PM on May 1, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 56 from 61 last week from 59 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Flat; 4181 from 4180 last week from 4185two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
c. Bought Coupang

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28725 from 29078 from 28970
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought ICBC

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3447 from 3474 from 3427;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3218 from 3194 from 3202;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers coming back soon
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 28813 from 29021 from 29684;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1602 from 1608 from 1601;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Hume Cement


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on May 1 @ 12.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 109.29 from 107.94 last week from 108.84 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0772 from 3.0940 from 3.0949;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR again
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7721 from 0.7739 from 0.7744;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2022 from 1.2049 from 1.1981;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7673 from 7.7626 from 7.7727;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.0955 from 4.1085 from 4.1270;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3309 from 1.3277 from 1.3335;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4745 from 6.4919 from 6.5197;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3821 from 1.3886 from 1.3801;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 91.28 from 91.08 from 91.58;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.63% from 1.57% last week from 1.59% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.16% from 0.15% from 0.17%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.21 from 108.84 from 109.22;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.44 from 87.14 from 87.48;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3007 from 2750 from 2323; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL @ May 09, 2021

treading water.jpg

Treading Water?

My portfolio has been treading water for the past few weeks and I'm starting to think that the buyers have disappeared.

Currently, I do have about 26 counters spread among various industries and countries.

Perhaps my weak portfolio could be due to my stock selection but when I looked at the indices, they are also not that hot either except for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq has been very week for a while now.

I was looking at some tailwinds including:-
1. Fund Managers have the lowest level of Cash in the past decade
2. Individual Investors are the most bullish in the past decade
3. Another US$6t of "helicopter money" is on the way
4. Record Margin Debt
5. Both Yellen and Powell cannot see Inflation while Buffett has started increasing prices at his businesses

If things are that great, why are we trading sideways?

The following are some of the reasons that I have seen for the weak markets:-
1. US: Inflation and Capital Gains Tax
2. China & HK: Policy Tightening and Big Tech Regulation
3. Malaysia: Lower ASP for Gloves, Covid19 and Political Uncertainty
4. Singapore: Covid19

I'm starting to think that "Sell in May" may be the correct strategy and that the markets would not be going anywhere for a few months. Thereafter, if we continue to tread water, I think that there could be a sharp correction after the summer. (October is traditionally a very bad month for the markets).

If that is the case, then I should really try to pare down my exposure to Equities over the next few weeks. So whenever I have some small profits or breakeven position, I should sell it to raise some Cash.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (32% from 30% last week from 27% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries:-
a. Singapore: 18%
b. HK: 27%
c. US: 24%
d. Malaysia: 34%
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (26 from 25 from 21)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$64.84 from US$63.48 last week from US$62.05 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Neutral" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1832 from US$1769 from US$1777;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Buy" last week from "Neutral" two weeks ago
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$27.56 from US$25.92 from US$26.04;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.75 from US$4.46 from US$4.33;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$57,700 from US$58304 last week from US$49604 two weeks ago (@ 10.30 AM on May 8, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral: 55 from 56 last week from 61 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4233 from 4181 last week from 4180 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
c. Bought Twitter

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28611 from 28725 from 29078;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3419 from 3447 from 3474;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3200 from 3218 from 3194;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers coming back soon
b. Bought Ascendas Reit
c. Added to Wilmar

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 29358 from 28813 from 29021;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1587 from 1602 from 1608;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to Hume Cement
b. Sold Sarawak Oil Palms


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on May 8 @ 10.40 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 108.61 from 109.29 last week from 107.94 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1050 from 3.0772 from 3.0940;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR again
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7844 from 0.7721 from 0.7739;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2164 from 1.2022 from 1.2049;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7655 from 7.7673 from 7.7626;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1128 from 4.0955 from 4.1085;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some MYR to USD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3246 from 1.3309 from 1.3277;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4326 from 6.4745 from 6.4919;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3975 from 1.3821 from 1.3886;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 90.23 from 91.28 from 91.08;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.58% from 1.63% last week from 1.57% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.15% from 0.16% from 0.15%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.02 from 109.21 from 109.22;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.33 from 87.44 from 87.14;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3212 from 3007 from 2750; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL @ May 16, 2021

fear1.jpg

Can You Feel The Fear?

The CNN Greed & Fear Index is at 40 (Fear). It was at 55 (Greed) last week.

The Daily Technicals on the S&P 500 also turned to "Sell" from "Strong Buy" this week.

What changed from last week? Is Inflation that big a deal now? Or was it the Capital Gains Tax on the wealthy that may be coming in a few months? Or is it just plain old profit-taking after a year of spectacular gains?

Anyway, the Nasdaq has been weak for the past month and this malaise can go on for a while longer, until there's a bigger opposite force eg. another round of helicopter money, sustainable reopening etc.

So in this type of market, I need to constantly remind myself to save some bullets for the rainy day. Cheap can become much cheaper when the buyers suddenly disappear.

Having said that, I should also not be too pessismistic. I should constantly monitor my buy list and if something is a real bargain on a 5 year horizon, I should at least take that initial 1/3 position now. (I had to forced myself to buy Alibaba this week).

For next week, there's nothing much happening, so it would probably be another boring week with not much trading.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 32% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries:-
a. Singapore: 21%
b. HK: 28%
c. US: 23%
d. Malaysia: 32%
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: No Progress (26 from 26 from 25)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$65.51 from US$64.84 last week from US$63.48 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1844 from US$1832 from US$1769;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Buy" two weeks ago
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$27.51 from US$27.56 from US$25.92;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.67 from US$4.75 from US$4.46;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$48,881 from US$57,700 last week from US$58304 two weeks ago (@ 3.30 PM on May 15, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 40 from 55 last week from 56 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4174 from 4233 last week from 4181 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Sell" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
c. Bought Twitter

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28028 from 28611 from 28725;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Alibaba
d. Sold Cosco Shipping Energy

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3490 from 3419 from 3447;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3055 from 3200 from 3218;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers coming back soon
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 28084 from 29358 from 28813;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1583 from 1587 from 1602;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on May 15 @ 4 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 109.37 from 108.61 last week from 109.29 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0977 from 3.1050 from 3.0772;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR again
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7776 from 0.7844 from 0.7721;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2144 from 1.2164 from 1.2022;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7675 from 7.7655 from 7.7673;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1264 from 4.1128 from 4.0955;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3321 from 1.3246 from 1.3309;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4371 from 6.4326 from 6.4745;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.4096 from 1.3975 from 1.3821;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 90.32 from 90.23 from 91.28;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.64% from 1.58% last week from 1.63% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 0.15% from 0.15% from 0.16%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 108.82 from 109.02 from 109.21;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.21 from 87.33 from 87.44;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2939 from 3212 from 3007; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL @ May 23, 2021

The Grief Process

Grief.jpg

The markets have not gone anywhere for a few weeks and some of my friends and relatives, are starting to get very angry.

I guess that is certainly Step 2 of the Grief Process:-
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

Or maybe we are already at Step 3 as I seemed to be hearing a bit of :-
a. "What if" I have waited for another few more weeks to buy?
b. "If only" I have waited a few more weeks before buying? (Some of them are now at closed to 100% exposure to Equities).

Whatever steps that we are on the Grief Process, the markets are certainly treading water now:-
a. Markets have not gone anywhere over the past few weeks
b. Commodities are not doing that well
c. Bitcoin has been dropping

So it looks like another "same old, same old" week, for next week.

Hopefully, there would be a spike when the new money from the new month, starts coming in towards the end of May and early June.

I need to also constantly remind myself that I need to have some spare bullets in case things do go sideways. And in this type of markets, it can happen very quickly. Just looked at Bitcoin.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (34% from 33% last week from 32% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries:-
a. Singapore: 20%
b. HK: 27%
c. US: 23%
d. Malaysia: 33%
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: No Progress (26 from 26 from 26)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$63.87 from US$65.51 last week from US$64.84 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1882 from US$1844 from US$1832;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: "Strong Buy" from "Strong Buy" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$27.65 from US$27.51 from US$27.56
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.51 from US$4.67 from US$4.75;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US%38547 from US$48,881 last week from US$57,700 two weeks ago (@ 9.55 PM on May 22, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins for environmental reasons
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear: 34 from 40 last week from 55 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4156 from 4174 last week from 4233 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: "Buy" from "Sell" last week from "Strong Buy" two weeks ago
c. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 28458 from 28028 from 28611;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3487 from 3490 from 3419;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3118 from 3055 from 3200;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers coming back soon
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 28318 from 28084 from 29358;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1562 from 1583 from 1587;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to Hume Cement


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on May 23 @ 7.15AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 108.94 from 109.37 last week from 108.61 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1100 from 3.0977 from 3.1050;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR this week
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.7731 from 0.7776 from 0.7844;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.2180 from 1.2144 from 1.2164;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7641 from 7.7675 from 7.7655;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1413 from 4.1264 from 4.1128;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.3316 from 1.3321 from 1.3246;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4343 from 6.4371 from 6.4326;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.4151 from 1.4096 from 1.3975;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 90.02 from 90.32 from 90.23;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 1.62% from 1.64% last week from 1.58% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 0.16% from 0.15% from 0.15%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 108.75 from 108.82 from 109.02;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.11 from 87.21 from 87.33;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2869 from 2939 from 3212; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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