Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - May 19)

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 06, 2015

chinese-curse-sayings_6632-0.png

Interesting Times

Draghi "Whatever It Takes" made his announcement and the market tanked. That tells me that the current market participants are very jumpy and will not hesitate to close their positions.

And if that's the case, why would you want to be trading with them, especially when Revenues, Earnings, Margins, Liquidity and Sentiments, are all deteriorating ?

Anyway, the Bulls are saying that:-
1. this is the strongest period of the year,
2. we would be touching Window Dressing time soon and
3. Yellen would also be making her announcement on December 15th.

As far as I'm concern, any rise in the markets should be treated as a "Selling Opportunity" and I will continue to sell into any rallies.

And If the spike is very sharp, I would also add to my short ETFs too.

I'm still monitoring my Currency Risk ( MYR, SGD and AUD ) and am still waiting for the right time to execute.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$40 from US$42 from US$40
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels
c. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
d. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
e. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
f. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
g. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage; Decision by IAEA on Dec 15. Used to produce 4.2m bpd
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1086 from US$1056 from US$1077. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$880 from US$835 from US$856

4. Silver - Higher. US$14.52 from US$14.02 from US$14.14. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.08 from US$2.05 from US$2.04

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 2092 from 2089 from 2023. No Trade

20% of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for, by a $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no real breadth in this rally.

I still think that the rise in the US markets is a bit too high and too fast. PEG is at the high end. Touching the upper end of Bollinger.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22236 from 22068 from 22755. Sold BBMG and Cheung Kong Properties.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3525 from 3436 from 3631; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2879 from 2859 from 2918. No Trade. Hotung consolidated 10 to 1.

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19505 from 19884 from 19880. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1668 from 1683 from 1662. No Trade. MAA did well this week. Am trying to guess what would be the Cash Per Share, after the sale of MAA Takaful.

7. Warrants - Traded 60744, 69526, 64482, 68569 and 60778 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 123 from 123 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 3.00 from 3.02 from 3.03

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.73 from 0.72 from 0.72

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.02 from 1.02 from 1.02. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.07 from 3.09 from 3.13. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Higher. 1.09 from 1.03 from 1.06. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7500 from 7.7515 from 7.7503. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.19 from 4.27 from 4.28; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.51 from 1.50 from 1.52

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 98.25 from 100.02 from 99.57


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.27% from 2.22% from 2.26%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 35.08 from 35.37 from 35.27


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 13, 2015

yellen.jpg

Interest Rate Hike

The whole world is waiting for Yellen to raise rates by 25 bps next week. And if she does, it would probably be a non-event. However, if she doesn't, the markets could drop sharply.

We are also touching 'Window Dressing" time. Therefore, the markets could be quite strong over the next 2-3 weeks.

I still think that this is a good period to sell, as I'm expecting the markets to be quite weak especially after the mid Jan 2016. And if the markets does not rise during this "Window Dressing" period, then I will probably need to buy more protection quickly.

Anyway, my thoughts on the various issues have not really changed:-
1. Sluggish global economy for at least another 2 years
2. Low US Interest Rates for at least another 1 year
3. Poor Market Sentiments
4. Rich Equities Valuation especially in the US and China
5. Weaker Revenues, Earnings and Margins especially in the US and China
6. Strong USD. Weak EM Currencies
7. To use any rallies over the next 2-3 weeks, to reduce exposure to Equities
8. To buy additional Protection ( Inverse ETFs or Put Warrants ) at the beginning of Jan 2016
9. To reduce exposure to EM Currencies ( MYR, SGD and AUD )
10. To convert some SGD to AUD
11. To avoid Commodities for a while more
12. To avod Macau casinoes for the time being


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$35 from US$40 from US$42
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels
c. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
d. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage; Decision by IAEA on Dec 15. Used to produce 4.2m bpd
e. Demand expected to grow by 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia
f. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1074 from US$1086 from US$1056. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$841 from US$880 from US$835

4. Silver - Lower. US$13.89 from US$14.52 from US$14.02. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.11 from US$2.08 from US$2.05

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2012 from 2092 from 2089. Sold VXX

20% of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for, by a $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no real breadth in this rally.

PEG is at the high end. Touching lower end of Bollinger now. Expecting US markets to rebound due to Window Dressing activities.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21464 from 22236 from 22068. Bought BBMG, CGN Power, CICC, Wasion, AviChina and Cheung Kong Properties.

Support at 20050. Touching lower end of Bollinger Range. RSI heading towards 30.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3435 from 3525 from 3436; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2835 from 2879 from 2859. Sold 1/3 DBXT S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19230 from 19505 from 19884. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1640 from 1668 from 1683. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 63306, 62183, 61131 and 60582 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 121 from 123 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 3.07 from 3.00 from 3.02

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.72 from 0.73 from 0.72

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.02 from 1.02 from 1.02. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.12 from 3.07 from 3.09. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.10 from 1.09 from 1.03. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7506 from 7.7500 from 7.7515. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.34 from 4.19 from 4.27; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.52 from 1.51 from 1.50

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 97.63 from 98.25 from 100.02


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down about 5%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.13% from 2.27% from 2.22%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 33.69 from 35.08 from 35.37


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 18, 2015

window-dressing-3-728.jpg

Window Dressing Season

We are now touching Window Dressing season and the markets would normally be strong around this time.

However, the markets this year has been quite volatile and the fund managers may decide to conserve some bullets, as everyone is expecting 2016 to be quite weak.

As for myself, I have been selling some Equities into this rally and if it does go up some more, I would probably reduce my positions further.

This is not the time to become a Hero else I may end up becoming a Zero.

My thoughts on the various subjects have not changed so I wont go thru them again this week.

Wishing you all a very Merry X'mas and Happy Holidays next week !


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$35 from US$35 from US$40
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 93m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels
c. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
d. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
e. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
f. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
g. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
h. Demand expected to grow by 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
j. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
k. Allowing the US to export oil may be a non-event if Oil continues be low.

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1066 from US$1074 from US$1086. Record US$1920. Vested. There are 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holding on Comex.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$859 from US$841 from US$880

4. Silver - Higher. US$14.08 from US$13.89 from US$14.52. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Flat. US$2.11 from US$2.11 from US$2.08

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2006 from 2012 from 2092. Traded VXX

20% of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for, by a $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no real breadth in this rally.

PEG is at the high end. Touching lower end of Bollinger. Expecting US markets to rebound due to Window Dressing activities.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21756 from 21464 from 22236. Traded Fosun, Fosun Pharma, China Shipping and Cheung Kong Properties. Sold BBMG, CGN Power, CICC, Wasion, Hua Bao and AviChina

Support at 20050. Touching lower end of Bollinger Range. RSI heading towards 30.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3579 from 3435 from 3525; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2853 from 2835 from 2879. No Trade. Sold another 1/3 DBXT S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 18987 from 19230 from 19505. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1644 from 1640 from 1668. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 61002, 62825, 61116 and 61582 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 121 from 121 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 3.03 from 3.07 from 3.00

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.72 from 0.72 from 0.73

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.01 from 1.02 from 1.02. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.08 from 3.12 from 3.07. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.09 from 1.10 from 1.09. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7529 from 7.7506 from 7.7500. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.29 from 4.34 from 4.19; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.49 from 1.52 from 1.51

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 98.70 from 97.63 from 98.25


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.20% from 2.13% from 2.27%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. US increased rates by 25bps
c. Taiwan cut rates by 0.125 percent
d. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 33.59 from 33.69 from 35.08


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 27, 2015

2016.jpg

Happy 2016 !

We are now touching the final week of December and the US markets were strong over the past few days. It's probably due to "Year End Window Dressing" and "Short Covering" activities.

Year End Window Dressing - There's only 3.5 days of trading left for the year and I'm expecting the markets to have an upward bias and possibly, a spike, during the final 1.5 days.

Short Covering - There was a record number of put options expiring on the Dec 18th "Quadruple Witching". Therefore, there was an incentive for the "invisible hands" to push the US markets down on Dec 18th. It then dropped quite a bit and a lot of money were made from those puts. Those "invisible hands" then probably covered their short positions the following Monday to Wednesday (Dec 21st to Dec 23rd).

I have always thought that the US market is too big to be manipulated. Maybe it's because volume is quite low at this time of the year and that the breadth from the recent rally was only from the FANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Netlflix and Google).

Anyway, I had to take profit on my VXX on Dec 18th. I had that strange feeling that the markets would rebound strongly on Monday, Dec 21st and was subsequently proven right. Going forward, I need to remind myself, to avoid buying the VXX until after the spike in early January, from the new money of a new month.

My thoughts on the various issues have not changed over the past week:-
1. I need to reduce my exposure to Equities further
2. I need to better manage my Currency Risk; To convert some SGD to AUD over the next few weeks
3. I'm waiting to buy the VXX again in early January
4. To avoid shorting HK aggresively as it's trading at the bottom of their trading range
5. To avoid Macau and Commodities (except gold) for the time being

Happy 2016 ! May you be always Healthy, Wealthy, Happy and Lucky !


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Flat. US$35 from US$35 from US$40
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 93m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels
c. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
d. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
e. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
f. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
g. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
h. Demand expected to grow by 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
j. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1066 from US$1074 from US$1086. Record US$1920. Vested. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$859 from US$841 from US$880

4. Silver - Higher. US$14.08 from US$13.89 from US$14.52. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Flat. US$2.11 from US$2.11 from US$2.08

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2061 from 2006 from 2012. No trade

20% of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for, by a $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no real breadth in this rally.

PEG is at the high end. Expecting US markets to rebound further due to Window Dressing activities.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22138 from 21756 from 21464. No trade. Support at 20050.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3628 from 3579 from 3435; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3878 from 2853 from 2835. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 18769 from 18987 from 19230. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1664 from 1644 from 1640. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 62672 and 62638 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 120 from 121 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 3.05 from 3.03 from 3.07

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.73 from 0.72 from 0.72

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.02 from 1.01 from 1.02. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.12 from 3.08 from 3.12. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.10. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7513 from 7.7529 from 7.7506. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat. 4.29 from 4.29 from 4.34; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat. 1.49 from 1.49 from 1.52

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 97.96 from 98.70 from 97.63


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.24% from 2.20% from 2.13%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 34.06 from 33.59 from 33.69


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 03, 2016

IMG_4728.JPG

Trading Break

It was a slow week and I'm glad that I took a trading break.

I have actually been taking a trading break every 6 weeks or so, ever since I read somewhere that the super-traders needs to function at 90% mental efficciency, else they would start losing money.

Anyway, the Window Dressing activities were quite muted this year and I'm now waiting for the spike from the new money flowing into the markets, from the new month of January.

Once those new money has been deployed, I would probably be buying some VXX, as well as adding to my S&P Inverse ETF.

US Quarterly Earnings is also coming up and I'm expecting them to be weak this round, adding to my confidence that it's the right time to short the US markets.

My thoughts on the various issues have not changed so I will not repeat them here.

Happy 2016 !


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$37 from US$35 from US$35
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 93m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels
c. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
d. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
e. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
f. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
g. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
h. Demand expected to grow by 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
j. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1061 from US$1066 from US$1074. Record US$1920. Vested. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$893 from US$859 from US$841

4. Silver - Lower. US$13.82 from US$14.08 from US$13.89. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.14 from US$2.11 from US$2.11

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2044 from 2061 from 2006. No trade

20% of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for, by a $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no real breadth in this rally.

PEG is at the high end. Expecting US markets to rebound due to new money from the new month.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21914 from 22138 from 21756. No trade. Support at 20050.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3539 from 3628 from 3579 from 3435; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2883 from 2878 from 2853. No Trade.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19034 from 18769 from 18987. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1693 from 1664 from 1644. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 63817 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 120 from 120 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 3.03 from 3.05 from 3.03

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.73 from 0.73 from 0.72

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.03 from 1.02 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.13 from 3.12 from 3.08. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7501 from 7.7513 from 7.7529. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.30 from 4.29 from 4.29; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.47 from 1.49 from 1.49

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 98.63 from 97.96 from 98.70


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.27% from 2.24% from 2.20%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 33.91 from 34.06 from 33.59


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 10, 2016

crash.jpg

Market Crash ?

2016 started on a very weak note. So is it time to Buy, Hold or Sell ?

Intuitively, I do not think that the big crash is here yet and there's no strong reason for a crash.

The amateurish handling of the Chinese circuit breakers by the inexperienced Chinese regulators, is not strong enough a reason for a crash.

In addition, there's still plenty of Cash on the sidelines, interest rates are still very low, there are QE programs throughout the world etc.

Having said that, if everyone wants to panic and sell, then i do not want to be standing in their way either.

Anyway, the S&P 500 has breached the support at 1990. The next strong support is 1868, about 4% away.

HK has also breached it's strong support at 20,500. The next strong support is at around 19,500, about 5% away.

If the next strong supports of the S&P 500 and HK are also breached, then i may have to seriously think about buying some Inverse Etfs or Put Warrants to protect myself.

At this point in time, my gut feel is that the markets are oversold and there should be a technical rebound quite soon. If the rebound is very strong, then I may also buy some VXX.

I'm still worried about my Currency Risk and have started to convert some SGD to AUD this week. I'm now very concerned that a falling Renmimbi will bring the other Asian Currencies down with it as well.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$33 from US$37 from US$35

a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (32 days supply )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
e. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
f. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
g. Demand expected to grow by 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
i. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1104 from US$1061 from US$1066. Record US$1920. Vested. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$880 from US$893 from US$859

4. Silver - Higher. US$13.92 from US$13.82 from US$14.08. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.02 from US$2.14 from US$2.11

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1922 from 2044 from 2061. Sold DBXT S&P Short ETF listed in Singapore.

20% of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for, by a $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no real breadth in this rally.

PEG is at the high end. Expecting US markets to have a technical rebound.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20454 from 21914 from 221386. Support at 20500 broken, New Support 20,350. Bought China Mobile and CICC,

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3186 from 3539 from 3628; Bought A50 2823 traded in HK

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2749 from 2883 from 2878. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17698 from 19034 from 18769. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1660 from 1693 from 1664. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 63726, 64109, 60909 and 62928 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 120 from 120 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 3.03 from 3.03 from 3.05

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.73 from 0.73 from 0.73

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.03 from 1.03 from 1.02. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Converted some SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 3.13 from 3.13 from 3.12. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7504 from 7.7501 from 7.7513. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.29 from 4.30 from 4.29; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat. 1.47 from 1.47 from 1.49

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 98.38 from 98.63 from 97.96


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.12% from 2.27% from 2.24%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 33.51 from 33.91 from 34.06


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 10, 2016

Capital.jpg

Capital Preservation

It has not been a good week for Equities.

For the US markets, it was probably due to Options Expiry as well as the 3-Days Weekend.

For the Asian markets, what's happening in China did not give people, a lot of confidence.

If the selling does not stop next week, then the markets could be heading much lower.

Intuitively, I still think that the markets are oversold and there would be some sort of technical rebound. However, I could be very wrong and the markets could continue it's free-fall.

In times like this, "Capital Preservation" is of utmost importance and the "trend is your friend".

It's also very important to avoid trying to catch any falling knives. This round, I've being quite fortunate as I have managed to avoid the Macau Casinos, the Oil rigs and the Commodity sector.

As I was not able to sell any Equities this week, I have tried to hedge myself by buying the "Proshares Ultra Short Emerging Markets (EEV)", which is listed in the US.

For next week, I would probably be buying some Bear Puts on the HSI, unless there's a sharp drop where I may then buy some Bull Calls, to play the technical rebound.

I'm still very worried about my Currency Risk. I still have not found a way to mitigate my exposure to the SGD, MYR and AUD. In addition, I now have another problem ie. my HKD could also be repegged at a lower rate later.

Finally, although the title of this week's blog is "Capital Preservation", I need to remind myself to change my mind-set to "Thriving in Difficult Times". This is because there are now a lot of instruments where one can make a lot of money by shorting the markets eg. Inverse ETFS and Put Warrants, with some of them at very high leverage of 50 times.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$28 from US$33 from US$37

a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (32 days supply )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
e. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
f. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
g. Demand expected to grow by 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
i. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1089 from US$1104 from US$1061. Record US$1920. Vested.

a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year
c. Last year, India replaced China as the biggest overall buyer of gold, with a total import level likely to reach a whopping 1,000 metric tons, up from 900 metric tons the previous year.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$831 from US$880 from US$893. 30% of platinum is used by the petrochemical refinering industry.

4. Silver - Lower. US$13.91 from US$13.92 from US$13.82. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$1.95 from US$2.02 from US$2.14

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1880 from 1922 from 2044. Bought EEV Proshares Ultra Short Emerging Markets

PEG is at the high end. Expecting US markets to have a technical rebound.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19521 from 20454 from 21914. Next Support 19400 then 19075. Bought HS ETF 2828

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2901 from 3186 from 3539; Next Support at 2850;

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2631 from 2749 from 2883. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17147from 17698 from 19034. No Trade

, Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1629 from 1660 from 1693. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 64033, 66691, 66132, 60886 and 67156 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 117 from 120 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 3.07 from 3.03 from 3.03

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.69 from 0.73 from 0.73

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 0.988 from 1.03 from 1.03. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To converted some more SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.04 from 3.13 from 3.13. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7944 from 7.7504 from 7.7501. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.43 from 4.29 from 4.30; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.43 from 1.47 from 1.47

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 98.96 from 98.38 from 98.63


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused to Denial

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.03% from 2.12% from 2.27%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 32.73 from 33.51 from 33.91


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 24, 2016

Dead Cat.gif

Dead Cat Bounce ?

As expected, the markets bounced back towards the end of the week. However, the drop from last week was a bit steep and I feel that this drop probably has the momentum to go very much lower.

Therefore, I think that this is a "dead cat bounce" and is really a selling opportunity.

It could also be a shorting opportunity, if this technical rebound is fast and furious.

However, if I'm going to be shorting the markets, I need to be a bit careful as the Banksters were just at Davos and may have already planned some sort of a coordinated action.

Actually, Draghi (Whatever It Takes) has already started the ball rolling. Thereafter, the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) probably followed up with some heavy buying.

Next, I think the Chinese are planning to do something, during the Chinese New Year holidays.

In addition, new money from the new month of February, would also be flowing into the markets in about two weeks.

In view of the above, I need to remind myself of the following:-
1. Do not buy any more new Equities unless the story is very convincing
2. Sell into any sharp rallies
3. Take small losses now, before they become a huge loss later
4. Be patient and wait for the set-up on the EEV and VXX
5. Do not be complacent
6. Wait for the euphoria before shorting
7. Manage your Currency Risk now, while you still have the chance
8. This cannot be the bottom as everything is still going downhil
9. To turn things around, you need a stronger opposing force, which is not visible on the horizon yet
10. Buy your insurance before the disaster, as no insurance would be available during the disaster


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$32 from US$28 from US$33

a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (32 days supply )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
e. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
f. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
g. Demand expected to grow by 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
i. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1098 from US$1089 from US$1104. Record US$1920. Vested.

a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year
c. Last year, India replaced China as the biggest overall buyer of gold, with a total import level likely to reach a whopping 1,000 metric tons, up from 900 metric tons the previous year.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$832 from US$831 from US$880

4. Silver - Higher. US$14.02 from US$13.91 from US$13.92. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.00 from US$1.95 from US$2.02

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 1907 from 1880 from 1922. Sold EEV Proshares Ultra Short Emerging Markets

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19081 from 19521 from 20454. Next Support 18050. Traded Wasion. Sold China Mobile and HS ETF 2828

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2917 from 2901 from 3186; Next Support at 2850; Sold A50 2823 traded in HK

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2577 from 2631 from 2749. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 16959 from 17147 from 17698. No Trade

, Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1625 from 1629 from 1660. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 67156, 62298, 64029, 60735 and 68944 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 119 from 117 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.99 from 3.07 from 3.03

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.70 from 0.69 from 0.73

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.00 from 0.99 from 1.03. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To converted some more SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.99 from 3.04 from 3.13. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.09. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7967 from 7.7944 from 7.7504. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.27 from 4.43 from 4.29; 52 Week Range is 3.27 t 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat. 1.43 from 1.43 from 1.47

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 99.57 from 98.96 from 98.38


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.05% from 2.03% from 2.12%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 32.96 from 32.73 from 33.51


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 31, 2016

february.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It will be a new month soon, so new money would be flowing into the markets again. That means that the markets would probably be strong during the first week in February.

I think that the positive momentum could last till at least the second week of February, as the Banksters have just met in Davos and they are now coming out with their coordinated actions.

So far, we have seen the actions by Draghi, Yellen and Kuroda. Very soon, it would be the Chinese's turn and I expect them to act before Chinese New Year.

Therefore, I'm reminding myself not to short the markets over the next two weeks. In the meantine, I'm waiting for the set-up in the VXX and EEV.

I have still not managed to sell much Equities. And it's very likely that I will not be able to do so in the near future. Therefore, the only way that I can try to protect myself would be buy some Inverse ETFs or Puts.

I'm still struggling with my Currency Risk. However, the MYR has rebounded so it may be a good chance to convert some MYR to another currency. But which one ? In the meantime, the AUD is still weak and I'll be converting more SGD into the AUD.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$34 from US$32 from US$28

a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (32 days supply )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
e. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
f. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
g. Demand expected to grow by 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
i. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1118 from US$1098 from US$1089. Record US$1920. Vested.

a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year
c. Last year, India replaced China as the biggest overall buyer of gold, with a total import level likely to reach a whopping 1,000 metric tons, up from 900 metric tons the previous year.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$872 from US$832 from US$831

4. Silver - Higher. US$14.26 from US$14.02 from US$13.91. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.06 from US$2.00 from US$1.95

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1940 from 1907 from 1880. No Trade. Monitoring VVX and EEV

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19683 from 19081 from 19521. Next Support 18050. Bought Henderson Land

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2738 from 2917 from 2901; Next Support at 2450; Traded A50 2823 in HK

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2629 from 2577 from 2631. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17518 from 16959 from 17147. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1668 from 1625 from 1629. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 69239, 69237, 69347, 69237, 60037, 69531, 60725, 60544, 60199 and 68642 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 121 from 119 from 117. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.91 from 2.99 from 3.07

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.71 from 0.70 from 0.69

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.01 from 1.00 from 0.99. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some more SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.94 from 2.99 from 3.04. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.09. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7821 from 7.7967 from 7.7944. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.14 from 4.27 from 4.43; 52 Week Range is 3.27 t 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.42 from 1.43 from 1.43

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 99.61 from 99.57 from 98.96


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.92% from 2.05% from 2.03%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 33.21 from 32.96 from 32.73


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

Thriving in "Difficult" Times

IMG_5379.JPG

It has been a tough start to 2016 and a lot of people have lost money already.

And some of these people are now probably wondering whether they should be cutting their remaining positions and hunkering down over the next few years. In addition, the crash of 2007 and 1997 are still very fresh in their minds.

The global economic outlook is also not that great and sentiments are extremely poor.

A decade ago, the way to manage risk in such a situation, was to raise cash and to sell any "risky" assets. However, we now have many instruments where we can also make money in any plunge in price, for any asset class.

Specifically, we now have:-
1. Inverse or Bear ETFs that are listed in the US
2. Put Warrants listed HKEX, SGX and KLSE
3. CFDs
4. Put Options
5. Short-Selling of Equities on the US market
6. DBXT Short S&P listed in SGX ( not liquid )
7. Some new Inverse ETFS that would be launched in HKSE very soon

In view of the above, we do not really need to hunker down now and stay in cash for a few years. In addition, we could also be losing money, if the cash that we are in, is in the wrong currency.

Speaking of currency risk, I would probably be mitigating mine, by buying more US Inverse Bear ETFs. They are traded in USD and I get to also participate in any downside of the market as well.

Intuitively, I think that this is still a "Chinese Water Torture" market. That means that it will probably drip lower and lower but I dont see any major plunge yet.

And if I'm wrong, there would probably be a "V" recovery, due to short-covering or profit taking on the above Inverse Bear instruments.

For next week, I'm expecting the Chinese to do their part in the current banksters' coordinated action. Therefore, I'm reminding myself to be a bit careful if I'm going to be shorting the markets next week.

Finally, it's very easy to sound smart and talk about new strategies, contrarian ideas, new instruments etc. However, at the end of the day, it's all about whether we are making money or not and that's where our focus should be.

Happy Lunar New Year !


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Lower. US$31 from US$34 from US$32

a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (32 days supply )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
e. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
f. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
g. Demand expected to grow by 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
i. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
j. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1174 from US$1118 from US$1098. Record US$1920. Vested.

a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year
c. Last year, India replaced China as the biggest overall buyer of gold, with a total import level likely to reach a whopping 1,000 metric tons, up from 900 metric tons the previous year.


3. Platinum - Higher. US$913 from US$872 from US$832

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.03 from US$14.26 from US$14.02. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.09 from US$2.06 from US$2.00

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1880 from 1940 from 1907. Bought HDGE ( Short US ); Traded ERY ( Short Energy 3x ) and SPXS ( Short S&P 500 3x).

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19288 from 19683 from 19081. Next Support 18050. Traded Wasion, Nagacorp & AIA. Sold Henderson Land

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2763 from 2738 from 2917; Next Support at 2450; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2623 from 2629 from 2577. Sold Fraser Centrepoint

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 16820 from 17518 from 16959. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1662 from 1668 from 1625. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 60199, 68463, 68051, 60035, 68816, 60042 and 69238 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 117 from 121 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.95 from 2.91 from 2.99

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.71 from 0.71 from 0.70

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.00 from 1.01 from 1.00. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some more SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.94 from 2.94 from 2.99. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.12 from 1.08 from 1.08. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7918 from 7.7821 from 7.7967. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.16 from 4.14 from 4.27; 52 Week Range is 3.27 t 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.45 from 1.42 from 1.43

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 97.03 from 99.61 from 99.57


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.84% from 1.92% from 2.05%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 32.30 from 33.21 from 32.96


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.