Warning Signs 01 (Oct 08 - Feb 15)

[winston]

Even Warren Buffett Must Be Getting Concerned At This Market

By Thad Beversdorf

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/01 ... is-market/

[winston]

Heads up… This could be another big sign of a top in stocks by Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Signs of a major market top keep piling on. Pimco provides the latest bell-ringer with launch of 7 new equity strategies.

Please consider Pimco Plans a Push Into Stocks.

Long known as a bond powerhouse, Pacific Investment Management Co. is once again attempting an expansion into stock mutual funds.

The Newport Beach, Calif.-based company, still reeling from the departure of its star manager Bill Gross late last year, said Thursday that it is launching seven new equity strategies in partnership with the asset manager Research Affiliates.

The strategies include investments in large and small companies, as well as international and emerging-market stocks.

The new Pimco strategies will be based on indexes created by Research Affiliates. The firms aim to boost returns and protect from volatility by rating companies based on their size and other economic factors, rather than the price of the security.

“We’re responding to client needs,” Pimco Chief Executive Douglas Hodge said in an interview.

Client Needs?

Pray tell what client needs are those?

Bill Gross, Pimco founder and former CIO (now with Janus), provides a more rational outlook.

Bill Gross says 2015 Is Going to Be Terrible.

Bill Gross, bond king, ousted executive, self-styled poet of the markets, has a bold, depressing prediction for 2015, and he’s not couching it in any of his usual metaphor: “The good times are over,” he wrote in his January investment outlook note.

By the end of 2015, he goes on, “there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes.”


Gross is putting himself way out on a limb: Not one of Wall Street’s professional forecasters predict the S&P 500 will drop in 2015. Their average estimate calls for an 8.1 percent rise.

Gross has been wrong before, most famously in his predictions that bond yields would rise when the Federal Reserve ended quantitative easing. But maybe this time he sees something other market observers don’t. As Gross writes, deploying the commentary’s only off-color metaphor: “There comes a time when common sense must recognize that the king has no clothes, or at least that he is down to his Fruit of the Loom briefs.”

When not a single forecaster predicts a decline in equity prices in 2015, I like the odds something else will happen in a big way.

As for what Gross sees, I cannot say. However, I can say that I see one of the most overbought, overloved, equity and corporate bond markets in history, with valuations nearly as high as 1929 and the dot-com bubble in 2000.

In fact, this bubble is worse than 2000 because valuations in nearly every equity class are stretched as opposed to just technology.


Source: Global Economic Trend Analysis

[behappyalways]

3 red flags causing the market to panic
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/14/news/ec ... ?iid=HP_LN

[behappyalways]

Pay attention to these red flags for global growth
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102334152

[winston]

Did You Get Caught In The Swiss Shocker? Are You Really Sure?

By Michael Snyder

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/01 ... ally-sure/

[winston]

How to Tell Where the Stock Market Is Headed Next By Jeff Clark

One of the market's leading stocks is breaking down.

Semiconductor giant Intel was one of the top-performing stocks in 2014. But it's struggling so far this year. Even after reporting terrific fourth-quarter earnings last week, shares of Intel can't gain much traction. The stock looks vulnerable.

And it could mean trouble ahead for the stock market...

As regular Growth Stock Wire readers know, Intel tends to lead the broad stock market. If Intel goes up, the stock market likely will as well. And declines in the stock market will be short-term and shallow.

That's what we saw happen in April and August.

In April and August, the S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average (DMA). Most technical analysts view the 50-DMA as the "line in the sand" separating intermediate-term uptrends from intermediate-term downtrends. So when an asset is trading above the 50-DMA, it's bullish. When it's trading below the 50-DMA, it's bearish.

But even though the S&P 500 was below its 50-DMA, Intel was holding above its 50-DMA. This gave traders a strong clue that the market weakness would be short lived... And it was. Stocks bounced following the drop in mid-April, and the market rallied off oversold conditions in August.

On the other hand, when Intel shares fall, the stock market tends to fall as well.

That's what we saw in September and October.

In September, Intel broke down below its 50-DMA. I told you the stock was warning there was likely more downside in the market ahead. That's exactly what happened. The S&P 500 fell more than 5% from September 30 to October 16.

So where is Intel telling us the market is headed now?

Let's take a look...

Please Enable Images to See this

Notice how the chart has strung together a recent series of lower highs and lower lows. That's similar to the action we saw back in September - just before Intel broke below its 50-DMA and fell 10% in a couple weeks.

The stock is just barely holding above the support line of its 50-DMA right now.

If Intel can hold above its 50-DMA and bounces from here, the stock market will hold up as well.

But if Intel breaks down below support, watch out. The market will be in trouble.

Here's an updated look at the S&P 500 chart I showed you last week...

Please Enable Images to See this

Prior to last week, the S&P 500 was trading in a bearish rising-wedge pattern (the blue lines). In this pattern, an index makes consistently higher highs and higher lows but the distance between each new high and low is smaller. Eventually, the index has to break out of the pattern one way or another.

And last week, it broke to the downside. The S&P 500 fell below the support line of the pattern. It then bounced back up and is now retesting the line as support.

If Intel can bounce from here, then the S&P 500 should be able to rally back inside the wedge. And the bulls will regain momentum.

But if Intel breaks below support, the S&P 500 will likely fall toward one of its lower support areas at about 1,972 or (gulp) 1,870.

So keep an eye on the action in Intel. It will tell us where the market is likely headed in the short term.

Source: Growth Stock Wire

[winston]

3 Reasons to Sit This Market Out

The market is flashing too many warning signs to investors

By Anthony Mirhaydari

Source: InvestorPlace

http://investorplace.com/2015/01/sit-th ... MLY7dLLcqc

[behappyalways]

A good watch

Felix Zulauf: Deflation Will Sink Stocks
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/felix-zu ... 04323.html

[winston]

What Do The Super Wealthy Know That You and I Don’t?

By Michael Snyder

Source: The American Dream

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/01 ... t-we-dont/

[behappyalways]

The Baltic Dry index, which plunged before the 2008 financial crash, is now at its lowest level since 1986

This is the most important financial market in the world right now
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... t-now.html