Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 08, 2014:-

Going_Nowhere_Faster.jpg

Going Nowhere

Do you have that feeling that the markets are going nowhere ?

And you cant really see any catalysts to motivate you to either buy or sell.

In addition, the World Cup will be here next week and turnover will certainly decrease further.

However, the low volume could encourage some manipulations by the syndicates.

Or maybe the syndicates are also busily watching football in the wee hours of the morning.


Commodities[/b] - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$103 from US$103 from US$104.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1252 from US$1251 from US$1293. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$19 from US$19 from US$19. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.06 from US$3.14 from US$3.17.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1949 from 1924 from 1901

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22951 from 23082 from 22966. Bought SJM and Anhui Conch.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2030 from 2039 from 2035. Added to A50

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3299 from 3296 from 3278. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14346 from 14632 from 14462 .

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade;


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 103 from 102 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.57 from 2.56 from 2.56. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.93 from 0.93 from 0.92.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.16. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.00 from 2.99 from 2.97 Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.36.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7525 from 7.7529 from 7.7532. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Flat. 80.4 from 80.4 from 80.4.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Is it time to buy some protection eg puts or Inverse ETFs ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.59% from 2.48% from 2.53%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 15, 2014:-

world-cup-trophy1.jpg

World Cup Fever!

The World Cup is here and volumes are starting to drop.

The general thinking is that it would be quiet, as the traders would be watching football instead of their computer screens.

However, it's also a good time to manipulate prices as the volumes are low.

So if I'm a Big Boy, I would certainly be using this opportunity to make the prices move in the direction that I want.

In addition, 1H Window Dressing is here as well.


Commodities[/b] - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$107 from US$103 from US$103.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1276 from US$1252 from US$1251. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$20 from US$19 from US$19. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.03 from US$3.06 from US$3.14.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Lower. 1936 from 1949 from 1924

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23319 from 22951 from 23082. Added to SJM.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2071 from 2030 from 2039. Bought USSE50 Etf .

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3293 from 3299 from 3296. Bought Gallant and S&P Inverse Etf

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15098 from 14346 from 14632 .

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; Menang still strong


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 102 from 103 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.57 from 2.57 from 2.56. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.94 from 0.93 from 0.93.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.18 from 1.17 from 1.16. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.03 from 3.00 from 2.99. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.35 from 1.36 from 1.36.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7516 from 7.7525 from 7.7529. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 80.6 from 80.4 from 80.4.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, Iraq

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Bought S&P Inverse ETF

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.60% from 2.59% from 2.48%



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 22, 2014:-

Window Dressing.jpg

1H Window Dressing

It's Window Dressing time again.

And will they be using the low volume, to window dress their 1H results ?

Or are they also too busily watching football ?

Anyway, the markets have been quite strong over the past week.

So was that Window Dressing or will there be better things to come ?

As for myself, I would probably be using any Window Dressing activities to sell down some of my holdings.


Commodities[/b] - Mixed

1. Oil - Flat. US$107 from US$107 from US$103.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1315 from US$1276 from US$1252. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$21 from US$20 from US$19. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.12 from US$3.03 from US$3.06.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1963 from 1936 from 1949

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23194 from 23319 from 22951. Bought SJM, Dong Fang Electric, Harbin Electric and Wasion. Sold China Silver, Zhaojin and Anhui Conch.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2027 from 2071 from 2030. Sold A50 .

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3259 from 3293 from 3299. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15349 from 15098 from 14346

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; Menang touched new high of 1.14


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 102 from 102 from 103. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.58 from 2.57 from 2.57. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.94 from 0.94 from 0.93.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.17 from 1.18 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 3.03 from 3.03 from 3.00. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.36.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker 7.7518 from 7.7516 from 7.7525. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 80.3 from 80.6 from 80.4.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, Iraq

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - How's your allocation to Cash ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.61% from 2.60% from 2.59%



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jun 28, 2014:-

Month-July1.jpg

New Month

It's going to be a new month again.

That means that new monthly money, would be flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, it's likely that the markets would be safe until at least the first week of July.

In addition, there's also two more days left for 1H Window Dressing.

Anyway, I'm reminding myself that I should be using the opportunity now to Sell instead of to Buy.

And I should also be adding to my Puts and Inverse ETF after the first week of July.


Commodities[/b] - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$106 from US$107 from US$107.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1316 from US$1315 from US$1276. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$21 from US$21 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.15 from US$3.12 from US$3.03.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Flat. 1961 from 1963 from 1936

2. HK Equities - Flat. 23222 from 23194 from 23319. Traded China Silver, Zhaojin and Wasion. Sold some SJM

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2037 from 2027 from 2071. Still keeping USSE50 listed on SGX.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3271 from 3259 from 3293. Bought JMH and Yoma

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15095 from 15349 from 15098

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; Menang touched new high of 1.23


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 101 from 102 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.57 from 2.58 from 2.57. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.94 from 0.94 from 0.94.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.18 from 1.17 from 1.18. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 3.03 from 3.03 from 3.03. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.35.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker 7.7515 from 7.7518 from 7.7516. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 80.0 from 80.3 from 80.6


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, Iraq

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources

4. Risk Management - What's your exit plan ? Cash ? Inverse ETFs ? Puts ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.53% from 2.61% from 2.60%



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

Dow 17,000

Dow 17000.png

Now that the Dow has pierced 17,000, what's next ?

And when will the S&P 500 also pierce through 2000 ?

Anyway, the US 2Q Earnings season is here again.

And the 2Q Earnings are expected to grind higher as well.

So the market may not dip for a while until at least the middle of the US 2Q Earnings season.

As for myself, I'm slowly divesting some positions as it's better to sell when there are some buyers.


Commodities[/b] - Risk-On

1. Oil - Lower. US$104 from US$106 from US$107.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1321 from US$1316 from US$1315. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$21 from US$21 from US$21. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.27 from US$3.15 from US$3.12.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1985 from 1961 from 1963.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23546 from 23222 from 23194. Sold SJM, Dongfang Electric, Wasion, Harbin Electric, Zhaojin, and Kunlun Energy.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2059 from 2037 from 2027. Sold USSE50 listed on SGX.

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3272 from 3271 from 3259. Sold some Hotung and Global Investments

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15437 from 15095 from 15349

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; Menang touched a new high of 1.33 and have gone Ex-Warrants. The warrants would be credited on July 8


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 102 from 101 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.56 from 2.57 from 2.58. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.94 from 0.94 from 0.94.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.17 from 1.18 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.98 from 3.03 from 3.03. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.36.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7502 from 7.7515 from 7.7518. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 80.3 from 80.0 from 80.3


Others

1. Sentiment - Uneasy

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, Iraq

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources

4. Risk Management - Time to remind myself of Fear, Greed, Arrogance and Ignorance

5. Properties - Dropping slowly

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.64% from 2.53% from 2.61%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 13, 2014:-

Waiting for the "M"

Double Top.jpg

Portugal gave the markets a shock this week.

And for a while, I was tempted to buy some Puts and to add to my S&P Inverse ETF.

However, I did remind myself that I should wait for the "M" to form first on the charts.

And there's really nothing on the horizon, to put some fear into the mind of the "experts".

As for next week, there would be some earnings announcement by the US Tech companies.

In addition, Chairman Yellen would also be speaking on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Will she trip up this time and cause the "M" to form on the charts ?.


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$100 from US$104 from US$106

2. Gold - Higher. US$1340 from US$1321 from US$1316. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$22 from US$21 from US$21. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.27 from US$3.27 from US$3.15

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1968 from 1985 from 1961

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23233 from 23546 from 23222. Bought TCC, Nagacorp, SJM, Zhaojin and Shangdong Xinhua Pharma. Sold China Silver and TCC

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2047 from 2059 from 2037.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3294 from 3272 from 3271. Bought Ezion and JSH. Sold JMH and Ezion.

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15164 from 15437 from 15095

6. Malaysian Equities - No Trade; I think the warrants would start trading on July 17


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 101 from 102 from 101. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.57 from 2.56 from 2.57. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.94 from 0.94 from 0.94.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.18. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.99 from 2.98 from 3.03. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.36.

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger 7.7500 from 7.7502 from 7.7515. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 80.2 from 80.3 from 80.0


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, Iraq, European Contagion

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources

4. Risk Management - How's your Trailing Stop Loss and Position Sizing ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly in Spore and Malaysia. HK may be rebounding.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.52% from 2.64% from 2.53%

7. Interest rates - Increased by 25bps in Malaysia.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 18, 2014:-

The Big Picture

The-Big-Picture-.jpg

We have had a correction on Wall Street this week. And it was supposedly caused by Gaza and Ukraine.

For Gaza, do you really think that it will lead to higher oil prices ? And for fkraine, do you really see it leading to tougher sanctions on Russia ?

It seems that the strategy on Thursday, was to sell first and then investigate. And on Friday, they suddenly realize that these two were non-eventsand they started buying again.

This episode reminded me to continue focusing on the big picture ie low interest rates, stable economic conditions and plenty of cash on the sidelines.

And it also reminded me that the markets are very jittery and a small episode can easily trigger a correction.

Therefore, I still think that it's still a trading market so I have to continue trading this market.


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$103 from US$100 from US$104

2. Gold - Lower. US$1311 from US$1340 from US$1321. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$21 from US$22 from US$21. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.19 from US$3.27 from US$3.27

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1978 from 1968 from 1985

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23455 from 23233 from 23546. Bought China Silver, Zijin, Dalian Port, CMOC, Zhejiang Shibao, Nanjing Panda and Shangdong Xinhua Pharma. Sold CMOC, SJM, Nagacorp, Shangdong Xinhua and Zhejiang Shibao

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2059 from 2047 from 2059.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3311 from 3294 from 3272. Bought JMH

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15216 from 15164 from 15437

6. Malaysian Equities - Added to Menang.


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 101 from 101 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.57 from 2.57 from 2.56. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.94 from 0.94 from 0.94.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.99 from 2.99 from 2.98. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.35 from 1.36 from 1.36

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker 7.7513 from 7.7500 from 7.7502. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 80.5 from 80.2 from 80.3


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, Iraq, European Contagion, Ukraine

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources

4. Risk Management - How fast were you able to run on Thursday and Friday ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly in Spore and Malaysia. HK may be rebounding.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.48% from 2.52% from 2.64%



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jul 25, 2014:-

stock-market-timing.jpg

Market Timing

The US markets are weak again and the culprit this time, is earnings.

However, I still think that it's still too early to sell. It's going to be a new month soon and there would be new money coming into the market again.

In addition, there's still no fear in the eyes of the market participants. Tapering, Slow Economic Conditions, Weaker Earnings, Gaza and Russia, have all being flagged out already.

Maybe if Oil starts gapping up to US$125, then I would be more worried.

At the same time, it does not hurt to look at my Cash Positions, my trailing Stop Losses and my Asset Allocation while things are good.


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$102 from US$103 from US$100

2. Gold - Lower. US$1309 from US$1311 from US$1340. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$21 from US$21 from US$22. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.25 from US$3.19 from US$3.27

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Flat. 1978 from 1978 from 1968

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24216 from 23455 from 23233. Bought Shangdong Xinhua Pharma and Zhejiang Shibao. Sold Zijin, Dalian Port, Zhejiang Shibao, Nanjing Panda and Shangdong Xinhua Pharma.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2127 from 2059 from 2047.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3350 from 3311 from 3294. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15458 from 15216 from 15164

6. Malaysian Equities - No trade


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 102 from 101 from 101. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.56 from 2.57 from 2.57. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.94 from 0.94 from 0.94.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.98 from 2.99 from 2.99. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.34 from 1.35 from 1.36

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7500 from 7.7513 from 7.7500. 52 week range is 7.7500 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 81.0 from 80.5 from 80.2


Others

1. Sentiment - Confident

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, European Contagion, Ukraine

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources

4. Risk Management - Markets normally crash when it's euphoric ? Is it euphoric now?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly in Spore and Malaysia. HK may be rebounding.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.47% from 2.48% from 2.52%

7. Interest Rates : The Reserve Bank of NZ hiked its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points, from 3.25 percent to 3.50 percent.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 03, 2014:-

the_big_one.jpg

Is this the big one ?

The Dow dropped 317 points on Thursday and another 70 points on Friday.

For a while, a lot of people were wondering whether this is the big one.

As for myself, I dont really think that this is the big one yet.

There's still no fear in the eyes of the people yet. In addition, there's plenty of cash on the sidelines that can buy on the dip.

If the Dow drops another 300 points, would the fear starts to appear in the eyes of the people then?

And what about another 300 points the next day ? And another 300 points after that ?

So after how many 300 points drop, would you start to see the fear in the eyes of the people ?

Maybe it's time to remind myself of the famous quote from Peter Lynch: "If you want to panic, do it early ".


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$98 from US$102 from US$103

2. Gold - Lower. US$1293 from US$1309 from US$1311. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$20 from US$21 from US$21. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.22 from US$3.25 from US$3.19

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1925 from 1978 from 1978

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24532 from 24216 from 23455. Bought Yue Yuan Transportation. Sold Yue Yuan Transportation, Zhaojin, Nanjing Panda and Shangdong Xinhua Pharma.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2185 from 2127 from 2059.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3344 from 3350 from 3311. Sold Saizen and Yoma

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15523 from 15458 from 15216

6. Malaysian Equities - 1863. No trade


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 103 from 102 from 101. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.58 from 2.56 from 2.57. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.93 from 0.94 from 0.94.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.99 from 2.98 from 2.99. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.35

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7500 from 7.7500 from 7.7513. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 81.3 from 81.0 from 80.5. Vested


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, European Contagion, Ukraine, Falling Stock Prices

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources

4. Risk Management - When the market crashes, what would you be doing ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly in Spore and Malaysia. HK may be rebounding.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.49% from 2.47% from 2.48%

7. Interest Rates : The Central Bank of the Philippines raised the benchmark interest rate from 3.5% to 3.75%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 10, 2014:-

rebound.jpg

Selling on the rebound ?

The US markets rebounded strongly on Friday.

So is it time to sell into the technical rebound ?

All the "experts" on TV are saying that it will go down first before rebounding in September.

As for myself, I'm trimming my positions as I think that it would be quite weak for a few more weeks.


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$98 from US$98 from US$102

2. Gold - Higher . US$1312 from US$1293 from US$1309. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. $20 from US$20 from US$21. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.18 from US$3.22 from US$3.25

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1932 from 1925 from 1978

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24331 from 24532 from 24216. Bought Austnutria, SJM, Galaxy, Sand China, Lijun Pharma, WH Group and Zijin. Sold Austnutria, Lijun Pharma and WH Group.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2194 from 2185 from 2127

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3289 from 3344 from 3350. Sold S&P Inverse ETF, Lippo Malls

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14778 from 15523 from 15458

6. Malaysian Equities - No trade

7. Warrants - Traded Bear Puts 62459 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 102 from 103 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.56 from 2.58 from 2.56. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.93 from 0.93 from 0.94 .

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.98 from 2.99 from 2.98. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7516 from 7.7500 from 7.7500 . 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 81.4 from 81.3 from 81.0


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown, European Contagion, Ukraine, Higher Oil Prices ( Nigeria ), Iraq, Gaza

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources

4. Risk Management - How did you react when the Dow dropped about 400 points in two days ? What do you need to improve ?

5. Properties - Prime properties in Spore dropped about 8% yoy. Dropping slowly in Malaysia. HK may be rebounding.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.42% from 2.49% from 2.47%



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.