Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 17, 2013:-



Which Path to take ?

It's the same old, same old.

While the US markets are heading up, the Asian markets are directionless.

And things have not really changed from a week ago. My view has not really changed too.

I still think that there would be Window Dressing at year end but I cant tell whether there would be a correction between now and the end of the year. It's still a long 6 weeks to ago.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$93.67 from US$94.35 last week from US$94.60 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1289 from US$1289 last week from US$1316 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$20.77 from US$21.50 last week from US$21.86 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.17 from US$3.26 last week from US$3.30 the previous week.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1797 from 1771 last week from 1761 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23032 from 22744 last week from 23250 the previous week. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2136 from 2106 last week from 2150 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3201 from 3177 last week from 3201 the previous week.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15166 from 14087 last week from 14202 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 100.18 from 99.09 last week from 98.72 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5690 from 2.5502 last week from 2.5513 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9367 from 0.9384 last week from 0.9437 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1677 from 1.1700 last week from 1.1735 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.9998 from 2.9837 last week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3496 from 1.3365 last week from 1.3488 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7540 from 7.7517 last week from 7.7521 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.81 from 81.21 last week from 80.72 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.09% from 4.14% last week from 4.08% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.07% from 4.11% last week from 3.97% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.70% from 2.75% last week from 2.62% the previous week.

4. Indonesia's central bank unexpectedly raised its key rates by 25 basis points


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Need to raise some cash in case there's a dip

5. HK Properties - Barclays Plc joined UBS AG (UBSN) and Bank of America Corp. in forecasting a Hong Kong property slump, predicting home prices will fall at least 30 percent by the end of 2015 as income growth stalls and supply increases.

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 24, 2013:-



When will the party end ?

We are now touching new highs on the US market.

However, it has not been that strong in some of the Asian markets.

So when will the party end ? Or can it go on for a while longer ?

In addition, it's going to be a new month soon and there would be new money flowing into the market again.

And in the US, the inflows into Equities has been the highest for a few years.

My view has not really change. I think that it would be a strong Santa Claus rally and probably the first week of January would be the right time to take some money off the table.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk On

1. Oil - Higher. US$94.72 from US$93.67 last week from US$94.35 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1243 from US$1289 last week from US$1289 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19.81 from US$20.77 last week from US$21.50 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.22 from US$3.17 last week from US$3.26 the previous week.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1805 from 1797 last week from 1771 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23696 from 23032 last week from 22744 the previous week. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2196 from 2136 last week from 2106 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3173 from 3201 last week from 3177 the previous week.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15382 from 15166 last week from 14087 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 101.29 from 100.18 last week from 99.09 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5728 from 2.5690 last week from 2.5502 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9149 from 0.9367 last week from 0.9384 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1435 from 1.1677 last week from 1.1700 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.9420 from 2.9998 last week from 2.9837 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3558 from 1.3496 last week from 1.3365 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7530 from 7.7540 last week from 7.7517 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.65 from 80.81 last week from 81.21 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat. 4.08% from 4.09% last week from 4.14% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.10% from 4.07% last week from 4.11% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.74% from 2.70% last week from 2.75% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Greed, Fear, Arrogance and Ignorance

5. Properties - Some buyers in HK are already walking away from their deposits

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 01, 2013:-



New Month, New Money Flowing In

It's a new month so there's new money flowing in again.

So this market could grind higher for at least the first week.

Thereafter, Window Dressing will kick in again.

Need to remind myself to buy on any dips for the Window Dressing.

And more importantly, to get out in early January.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$92.78 from US$94.72 last week from US$93.67 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1252 from US$1243 last week from US$1289 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$19.96 from US$19.81 last week from US$20.77 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.23 from US$3.22 last week from US$3.17 the previous week.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Flat. 1806 from 1805 last week from 1797 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23881 from 23696 last week from 23032 the previous week. Sold AAC and China South City

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2221 from 2196 last week from 2136 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3176 from 3173 last week from 3201 the previous week. Bought Suntec Reit

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15662 from 15382 last week from 15166 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 102.43 from 101.29 last week from 100.18 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5678 from 2.5728 last week from 2.5690 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9109 from 0.9149 last week from 0.9367 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1433 from 1.1435 last week from 1.1677 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.9358 from 2.9420 last week from 2.9998 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3588 from 1.3558 last week from 1.3496 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7527 from 7.7530 last week from 7.7540 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Flat. 80.65 from 80.65 last week from 80.81 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Flat

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat. 4.06% from 4.08% last week from 4.09% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Flat. 4.12% from 4.10% last week from 4.07% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.74% from 2.74% last week from 2.70% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confident

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - How fast can you run when the fire starts ?

5. Properties - Would there be a bigger fool that would be buying from you ?

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction- Flat


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 08, 2013:-

Window Dressing



It's Year End Window Dressing Time again.

So it's time to remind myself to sit tight until Dec 31st

I recall that a few years ago, I got greedy and did not sell on Dec 31st.

Therefter, prices came down and never recovereed.

By the way, if there's any dip over the next two weeks, I would think that it's a buying opportunity.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk On

1. Oil - Higher. US$97.82 from US$92.78 last week from US$94.72 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1230 from US$1252 last week from US$1243 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19.52 from US$19.96 last week from US$19.81 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Flat. S$3.24 from US$3.23 last week from US$3.22 the previous week.


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Flat. 1805 from 1806 last week from 1805 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23743 from 23881 last week from 23696 the previous week. Bought Zhaojin

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2237 from 2221 last week from 2196 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3114 from 3176 last week from 3173 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15300 from 15662 last week from 15382 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 102.90 from 102.43 last week from 101.29 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5876 from 2.5678 last week from 2.5728 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9109 from 0.9149 last week from 0.9367 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1373 from 1.1433 last week from 1.1435 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.9430 from 2.9358 last week from 2.9420 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3703 from 1.3588 last week from 1.3558 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7545 from 7.7527 last week from 7.7530 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Lower. 80.32 from 80.65 last week from 80.65 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.18% from 4.06% last week from 4.08% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.17% from 4.12% last week from 4.10% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.86% from 2.74% last week from 2.74% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Are your Trailing Stop Loss in place ?

5. HK Properties - Citibank projected that property price will gradually decrease by 10% in 2014, since the withdrawal of the Fed will hinder housing acquisitions, plus the recent incentives introduced by various developers had absorbed certain demands.

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 08, 2013:-

Window DressingTime !



There's only 2 more weeks till the end of the year.

If there's going to be any Window Dressing activity, it will be around this time.

So how would it be this year ?

Would it be different than previous years ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk On

1. Oil - Lower. US$96.47 from US$97.82 last week from US$92.78 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1238 from US$1230 last week from US$1252 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$19.66 from US$19.52 last week from US$19.96 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.31 from US$3.24 last week from US$3.23 the previous week.


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1775 from 1805 last week from 1806 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23246 from 23743 last week from 23881 the previous week. Bought Zhaojin

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2196 from 2237 last week from 2221 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3066 from 3114 last week from 3176 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15403 from 15300 last week from 15662 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 103.24 from 102.90 last week from 102.43 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger 2.5778 from 2.5876 last week from 2.5678 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.8962 from 0.9109 last week from 0.9149 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1249 from 1.1373 last week from 1.1433 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.12; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.8997 from 2.9430 last week from 2.9358 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3739 from 1.3703 last week from 1.3588 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strongerr. 7.7537 from 7.7545 last week from 7.7527 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Lower. 80.21 from 80.32 last week from 80.65 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.09% from 4.18% last week from 4.06% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.10% from 4.17% last week from 4.12% last week from 4.10% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.86% from 2.86% last week from 2.74% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - How's your Asset Allocation ?

5. Properties - When will the bubble in HK and Spore burst ?

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction- Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as at Dec 22, 2013



Santa Claus Rally ?

We are touching the last week of Window Dressing.

Again, it's the closing price on Dec 31st that matters.

As I have waited a long time for this moment, I'm reminding myself to make sure that I cross that finishing line.

The time to sell would be at the cloosing on Dec 31st or in the first week of january.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk On

1. Oil - Higher. US$99.16 from US$96.47 last week from US$97.82 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1202 from US$1238 last week from US$1230 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. U$19.37 from US$19.66 last week from US$19.52 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.30 from US$3.31 last week from US$3.24 the previous week.


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 1820 from 1775 last week from 1805 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22812 from 23246 last week from 23743 the previous week. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2084 from 2196 last week from 2237 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3094 from 3066 last week from 3114 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15870 from 15403 last week from 15300 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 104.08 from 103.24 last week from 102.90 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 104.63

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5946 from 2.5778 last week from 2.5876 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.8922 from 0.8962 last week from 0.9109 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1300 from 1.1249 last week from 1.1373 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.12; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.9318 from 2.8997 last week from 2.9430 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3675 from 1.3739 last week from 1.3703 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7545 from .127.7537 last week from 7.7545 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.55 from 80.21 last week from 80.32 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.12% from 4.09% last week from 4.18% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.14% from 4.10% last week from 4.17% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.89% from 2.86% last week from 2.86% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - How's your Asset Allocation ?

5. Properties - Long wait for the bubble to break

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 29, 2013:-

[img]http://photo.elsoar.com/wp-content/images/Happy-New-Year-2014-Wishes-Wallpaper-1.jpg[img]


Happy 2014 !

It's close to the end of the year.

If there's going to be any Window Dressing, they are already doing it now.

So is it time to sell or do you want to hope that this rally can last till Chinese New Year ?

And will the Feds they have the chance to increase interest rates gradually or would the market force a spike ?

Everyone seems to think that this rally can go on for a few more months and that's a bit worrying.

I may sell into any spike else I may hang on tight till Chinese New Year.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk On

1. Oil - Higher. US$100.15 from US$99.16 last week from US$96.47 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1213 from US$1202 last week from US$1238 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$20.06 from U$19.37 last week from US$19.66 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.38 from US$3.30 last week from US$3.31 the previous week.


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 1841 from 1820 last week from 1775 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23243 from 22812 last week from 23246 the previous week. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2101 from 2084 last week from 2196 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3150 from 3094 last week from 3066 the previous week. Bought Hutch Port

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 16179 from 15870 last week from 15403 the previous week.

6. Malaysian Equities - Added to Menanag


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 105.17 from 104.08 last year from 103.24 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5916 from 2.5946 last year from 2.5778 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.8869 from 0.8922 last week from 0.8962 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1251 from 1.1300 last week from 1.1249 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.12; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.9159 from 2.9318 last week from 2.8997 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3749 from 1.3675 last week from 1.3739 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7548 from 7.7545 last week from .7.7537 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.34 from 80.55 last week from 80.21 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.21% from 4.12% last week from 4.09% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.23% from 4.14% last week from 4.10% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 3.00% from 2.89% last week from 2.86% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Optimistic

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Will you be selling into the rally ?

5. Properties - When will the bubble break ?

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 05, 2014:-



What Now ?

Window Dressing is now over. So what now ?

Can the rally continue for a while longer ? Or will there will be some profit-taking ?

If you decide to sell, where would you be putting those moneys ? 10 Years are only at 3%.

And if you decide to hold, can your trailing stops really protect you ? What happens if all the other players also have their trailing stops in place ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$94.17 from US$100.15 last week from US$99.16 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$12.36 from US$1213 last week from US$1202 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$20.13 from US$20.06 last week from U$19.37 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.35 from US$3.38 last week from US$3.30 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend now


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1834 from 1841 last week from 1820 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22817 from 23243 last week from 22812 the previous week. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2083 from 2101 last week from 2084 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3131 from 3150 last week from 3094 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 16291 from 16179 last week from 15870 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 104.89 from 105.17 last week from 104.08 lthe previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5949 from 2.5916 last week from 2.5946 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.8945 from 0.8869 last week from 0.8922 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1329 from 1.1251 last week from 1.1300 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.12; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.9399 from 2.9159 last week from 2.9318 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3588 from 1.3749 last week from 1.3675 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7540 from 7.7548 last week from 7.7545 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.87 from 80.34 last week from 80.55 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 3.92% from 4.21% last week from 4.12% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.87% from 4.23% last week from 4.14% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.99% from 3.00% last week from 2.89% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Mixed

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Can your Trailing Stops protect you ?

5. Properties - Spore properties dropped first time in 7th quarters

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction - Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 12, 2014:-



US Earnings Season

How would US Earnings be this time ?

Revenue is not expected to be strong but it has not been strong for a few quarters.

And will Earnings start to drop because there's no longer any more effect from cost-cutting measures ?

Would this US Earnings season be a strong enough catalyst to propel the US market higher ?

Or is it time for the market the take a breather ?

It's a bit disappointing to see the US billionaires selling down their holdings . do they know something that you dont ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$92.89 from US$94.17 last week from US$100.15 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1249 from US$1236 fast week from US$1213 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$20.16 from US$20.13 last week from US$20.06 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.34 from US$3.35 last week from US$3.38 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1842 from 1834 last week from 1841 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22846 from 22817 last week from 23243 the previous week. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2013 from 2083 last week from 2101 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3144 from 3131 last week from 3150 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15912 from 16291 last week from 16179 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 104.13 from 104.89 last week from 105.17 lthe previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5857 from 2.5949 last week from 2.5916 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.8995 from 0.8945 last week from 0.8869 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1371 from 1.1329 last week from 1.1251 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.12; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.9401 from 2.9399 last week from 2.9159 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3667 from 1.3588 last week from 1.3749 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7544 from 7.7540 last week from 7.7548 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.87 from 80.34 last week from 80.55 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat. 3.92% from 3.92% last week from 4.21% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.81% from 3.87% last week from 4.23% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.86% from 2.99% last week from 3.00% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Mixed

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Time to sell while you have a chance ?

5. Properties - Spore properties dropped first time in 7th quarters

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction - Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 17, 2014:-



What's Next ?

From the chart above, are you able to tell where we are now ?

This is also one of those times where a lot of players cant tell whether they are at Fear or Greed, or somewhere in between ?

And if you are not able to say where the market is headed, it's very likely that we will probably be not going anywhere for the time being.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$92.89 from US$94.17 last week from US$100.15 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1249 from US$1236 fast week from US$1213 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$20.16 from US$20.13 last week from US$20.06 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.34 from US$3.35 last week from US$3.38 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Lower. 1839 from 1842 last week from 1834 last week from 1841 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23133 from 22846 last week from 22817 he previous week. Bought Zijin

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2005 from 2013 last week from 2083 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3147 from 3144 last week from the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15734 from 15912 last week from 16291 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 104.30 from 104.13 last week from 104.89 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5849 from 2.5857 last week from 2.5949 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.8781 from 0.8995 last week from 0.8945 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1201 from 1.1371 last week from 1.1329 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.12; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.8953 from 2.9401 last week from 2.9399 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3541 from 1.3667 last week from 1.3588 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7553 from 7.7544 last week from 7.7540 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Stronger. 81.18 from 80.87 last week from 80.34 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 3.82% from 3.92% last week from 3.92% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.71% from 3.81% last week from 3.87% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.82% from 2.86% last week from 2.99% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Mixed

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - If a crash is just around the corner, what will you have to do now ?

5. Properties - Transactions are down. What's next ?
6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction - Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.