Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of July 21, 2013:-



Liquidity

The market is still awash with liquidity.

So how can there be a sustainable drop when there's so much money floating around ?

Isn't this a good time to buy then ?

The Emerging Markets has corrected while there's still strong growth.

So why are you not buying on the dip then ? What are you waiting for ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$108.47 from US$106.25 last week from US$103.63 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1296 from US$1283 last week from US$1222 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19.48 from US$19.86 last week from US$18.86 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.15 from US$3.07 last week from US$3.05 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1692 from 1680 last week from 1629 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21362 from 21277 last week from 20855 the previous week. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 1993 from 2039 last week from 2007 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3213 from 3236 last week from 3170 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14590 from 14506 last week from 14310 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 100.50 from 99.29 last week from 101.22 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5223 from 2.5175 last week from 2.4881 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9182 from 0.9045 last week from 0.9064 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1621 from 1.1414 last week from 1.1615 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.16; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3142 from 1.3067 last week from 1.2830 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7577 from 7.7587 last week from 7.7546 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 82.62 from 82.94 last week from 84.45 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.41% from 4.48% last week from 4.42% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.68% from 4.78% last week from 4.66% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.48% from 2.58% last week from 2.74% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$47b from HK$56b last week from HK$59b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - What would you do if the market drops another 10% ?

6. Properties - Rental on Singaporean Commercial Properties are going up ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- New High


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

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[winston]

TOL as of July 27, 2013:-



Market Direction

So what's the market direction going to be ?

Will we be in an uptrend, sideways or downtrend ?

When things are so uncertin, it's likely to be a volatile market.

In view of the above, I will only trade when the values are compelling


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Lower. US$104.69 from US$108.47 last week from US$106.25 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1331 from US$1296 last week from US$1283 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$19.96 from US$19.48 last week from US$19.86 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 22.82

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.11 from US$3.15 last week from US$3.07 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Flat. 1692 from 1692 last week from 1680 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21969 from 21362 last week from 21277 the previous week. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2011 from 1993 last week from 2039 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3236 from 3213 last week from 3236 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14130 from 14590 last week from 14506 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 98.26 from 100.50 last week from 99.29 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5378 from 2.5223 last week from 2.5175 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9264 from 0.9182 last week from the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1711 from 1.1621 last week from 1.1414 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.16; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3277 from 1.3142 last week from 1.3067 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7570 from 7.7577 last week from 7.7587 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 81.66 from 82.62 last week from 82.94 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.40% from 4.41% last week from 4.48% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.62% from 4.68% last week from 4.78% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.56% from 2.48% last week from 2.58% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$49b from HK$47b last week from HK$56b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management -

6. Properties - HK home prices could plunge as much as 40 percent by 2018 as both supply and interest rates rise, real-estate consultant Colliers International warned. In the next 12 months, luxury home prices will fall by 10 percent while small-to-medium sized units will decline by 10-15 percent, Colliers said. Rating and Valuation Department figures show home prices havejumped 33 percent since early 2012.

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- Flat


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 04, 2013:-




The Next Catalyst

US Earnings season is winding down and there's also no major data next week.

So what would be the catalyst that would make the market go higher from here ?

It's also the peak of summer and everyone is away on vacation.

The Smart Money are also supposedly selling anything that they cant nailed down properly.

Under this type of situation, do you see the market going up, down or sideways ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed


1. Oil - Higher. US$106.88 from US$104.69 last week from US$108.47 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1313 from US$1331 last week from US$1296 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19.84 from US$19.96 last week from US$19.48 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.17 from US$3.11 last week from US$3.15 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1710 from 1692 last week from 1692 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22191 from 21969 last week from 21362 the previous week. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2029 from 2011 last week from 1993 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3254 from 3236 last week from 3213 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14466 from 14130 last week from 14590 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 98.94 from 98.26 last week from 100.50 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5613 from 2.5378 last week from 2.5223 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.8907 from 0.9264 last week from 0.9182 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1329 from 1.1711 last week from 1.1621 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3281 from 1.3277 last week from 1.3142 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7564 from 7.7570 last week from 7.7577 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Flat. 81.93 from 81.93 last week from 81.66 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Flat

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.25% from 4.40% last week from 4.41% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.57% from 4.62% last week from 4.68% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.6% from 2.56% last week from 2.48% last week the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$46b from HK$49b last week from HK$47b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Complacent

6. Properties - So how's the yield right now ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- New High


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 11, 2013:-





Buy, Sell or Hold ?

I have been struggling with the above issue for a while.

It's very likely that I will only buy if the story is very compelling and the valuation very reasonable.

It's very likely that I will be selling if I cannot nail the story down thoroughly.

It's very likely that I will be holding if the yield and story is intact for the next 2 years


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Lower. US$106.03 from US$106.88 last week from US$104.69 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1314 from US$1313 last week from US$1331 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$20.51 from US$19.84 last week from US$19.96 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.31 from US$3.17 last week from US$3.11 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1691 from 1710 last week from 1692 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21808 from 22191 last week from 21969 the previous week. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2052 from 2029 last week from 2011 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3230 from 3254 last week from 3236 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 13615 from 14466 last week from 14130 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 96.24 from 98.94 last week from 98.26 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5886 from 2.5613 last week from 2.5378 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9198 from 0.8907 last week from 0.9264 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1564 from 1.1329 last week from 1.1711 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3337 from 1.3281 last week from 1.3277 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7556 from 7.7564 last week from 7.7570 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Lower. 81.13 from 81.93 last week from 81.93 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 4.19% from 4.25% last week from 4.40% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.50% from 4.57% last week from 4.62% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.58% from 2.60% from 2.56% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Flat. HK$46b from HK$46b last week from HK$49b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Wait & See

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - If the Smart Money are selling, why are you hanging around ?

6. Properties - Emperor International executive director Donald Cheung Ping-keung, says Hong Kong property prices may drop a further 15 per cent, after declining 10 per cent since the end of April.


7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[iam802]

Q3 ending soon. Or should we get ready to buy for a bounce?

[winston]

Q3 ending soon. Or should we get ready to buy for a bounce?

Too many moving parts..

QE ending also means economy is doing well which would leads to higher earnings.

A lot of money on the sidelines which means that there will probably be not a sustainable drop.

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 18, 2013:-




Up, Down or Sideways ?

Just when you thought that it's safe to go back into the markets, the Dow dropped a few hundred points.

And can the Asian markets really decoupled from what's what's happening in the US markets ?

But before you run to sell off everything, interest rates are still ow and there are a lot of money on the sidelines.

So it looks like it's still a Trading Market until it's not.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On


1. Oil - Higher. US$107.68 from US$106.03 last week from US$106.88 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1375 from US$1314 last week from US$1313 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$23.18 from US$20.51 last week from US$19.84 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.36 from US$3.31 last week from US$3.17 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Lower. 1656 from 1691 last week from 1710 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22518 from 21808 last week from 22191 the previous week. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2068 from 2052 last week from 2029 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3193 from 3230 last week from 3254 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 13650 from 13615 last week from 14466 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 97.55 from 96.24 last week from 98.94 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5797 from 2.5886 last week from 2.5378 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9175 from 0.9198 last week from 0.8907 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1655 from 1.1564 last week from 1.1329 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.3330 from 1.3337 last week from 1.3281 last week from 1.3277 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7541 from 7.7556 last week from 7.7564 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 81.26 from 81.13 last week from 81.93 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat. 4.19% from 4.19% last week from 4.25% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.36% from 4.50% last week from 4.57% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.83% from 2.58% eek from 2.60% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher HK$71b from HK$46b last week from HK$46b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Confused

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How fast can you react if things suddenly change ?

6. Properties - Transactions are dropping

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 25, 2013:-



Confused ?

So are you confused with what's happeining in the markets lately ?

Do you really think that you are able to predict the direction of the US market ?

And even if you are able to consistently predict the US market direction, are you able to really translate that to the market that you are trading, say Spore ?

Have you been consistently making money from the markets lately ?

If not, isn't it time to take a trading break or an extended break ?



The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On


1. Oil - Lower. US$106.32 from US$107.68 last week from US$106.03 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1396 from US$1375 last week from US$1314 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$24.04 from US$23.18 last week from US$20.51 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.35 from US$3.36 last week from US$3.31 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1664 from 1656 last week from 1691 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21864 from 22518 last week from 21808 the previous week. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2057 from 2068 last week from 2052 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3089 from 3193 last week from 3230 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 13661 from 13650 last week from 13615 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 98.70 from 97.55 last week from 96.24 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5812 from 2.5797 last week from 2.5886 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9029 from 0.9175 last week from 0.9198 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1545 from 1.1655 last week from 1.1564 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Higher. 1.3383 from 1.3330 last week from 1.3337 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7556 from 7.7541 last week from 7.7556 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 81.36 from 81.26 last week from 81.13 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.33% from 4.19% last week from 4.19% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.46% from 4.36% last week from 4.50% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.81% from 2.83% last week from 2.58% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower HK$55b from HK$71b last week from HK$46b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Complacency

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Do you really think that you know where the risks are ?

6. Properties - If the prices in HK are coming down, what about those in Singapore or Malaysia ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 01, 2013:-




Storm Coming ?

It has not been a good month for the markets.

Will new money from a new month, provide some relief ?

However, there's also Syria in the background, not to mention that September and October are traditionally weak for the markets.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off


1. Oil - Higher. US$107.76 from US$106.32 lst week from US$107.68 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1396 from US$1396 last week from US$1375 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$23.44 from US$24.04 last week from US$23.18 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.23 from US$3.35 last week from US$3.36 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1633 from 1664 last week from 1656 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21731 from 21864 last week from 22518 the previous week.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2098 from 2057 last week from 2068 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3029 from 3089 last week from 3193 the previous week. Bought Keppel Reit & Suntec Reit

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 13389 from 13661 last week from 13650 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 98.17 from 98.70 last week from 97.55 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5773 from 2.5812 last week from 2.5797 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.8902 from 0.9029 last week from 0.9175 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1345 from 1.1545 last week from 1.1655 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3215 from 1.3383 last week from 1.3330 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Flat 7.7555 from 7.7556 last week from 7.7541 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.09 from 81.36 last week from 81.26 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.40% from 4.33% last week from 4.19% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 4.54% from 4.46% last week from 4.36% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.78% from 2.81% last week from 2.83% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower HK$52b from HK$55b last week from HK$71b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Weak

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Cyprus; North Korea, Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How fast can you run ?

6. Properties - K Wah Int Chairman Lui Che-woo, said HK home prices are likely to fall by 10 to 20 percent.

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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[winston]

TOL as of Sep 08, 2013:-



Market Volatility

It looks like the stars are lined up for some volatility.

Would it be Syria or the Tapering that would bring the markets down ?

Or maybe higher Interest rates or funds outflow from EMs ?

And what about Europe, China and higher energy prices ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$110.23 from US$107.76 last week from US$106.32 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1389 from US$1396 last week from US$1396 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$23.86 from US$23.44 last week from US$24.04 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.26 from US$3.23 last week from US$3.35 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1655 from 1633 last week from 1664 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22621 from 21731 last week from 21864 the previous week.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2140 from 2098 last week from 2057 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3048 from 3029 last week from 3089 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 13861 from 13389 last week from 13661 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 99.11 from 98.17 last week from 98.70 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 103.31

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.6132 from 2.5773 last week from 2.5812 the previous week. Vested

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9187 from 0.8902 last week from 0.9029 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1702 from 1.1345 last week from 1.1545 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.13; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.318 from 1.3215 last week from 1.3383 the previous week

6. USD to HKD - HKD Flat 7.7557 from 7.7555 last week from 7.7556 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.15 from 82.09 last week from 81.36 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.50% from 4.40% last week from 4.33% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Flat. 2.53% from 4.54% last week from 4.46% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.93% from 2.78% last week from 2.81% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher; HK$61b from HK$52b last week from HK$55b lthe previous week.

2. Sentiment - Complacent

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Complacent

6. Properties - Hong Kong's home market turned dismal in August as transactions plunged to a nine-month lo,w with only 3,407 new and old units changing hands.

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting

8. US Market Direction- Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.