Oil & Gas 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[kennynah]

OPEC president sees oil at US$70

i smell a rat !

[blid2def]

Especially when you consider these:

viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8&p=9002&hilit=OPEC+President#p9002

Jun 28:
OPEC Leader Khelil Says Dollar, Conflicts to Drive Oil to $170
By Ahmed Rouaba

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC President Chakib Khelil predicted that the price of oil will climb to $170 a barrel before the end of the year because of a weak dollar and political conflicts.

viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8&p=10254&hilit=OPEC+President#p10254

Jul 6:
OPEC's Khelil rules out oil price decline: APS
Sun Jul 6, 2008 9:44am EDT

(Reuters) - OPEC President Chakib Khelil ruled out on Sunday an eventual oil price fall in view of strong Chinese and Indian demand, adding geopolitics and a weak dollar were behind the current spike, Algeria's APS news agency reported.

Play masak masak ah? Kong kong sua?

[kennynah]

wah....your keep record of his speeches ah.....impressed.... u must like him very much hor ? hahahaha...

thanks for this... wont let this fella take us for a ride to horlan...

[blid2def]

wah....your keep record of his speeches ah.....impressed.... u must like him very much hor ? hahahaha...

thanks for this... wont let this fella take us for a ride to horlan...

Just to prove that the search function in the forum works.

[HengHeng]

Not long ago , he just said that there is enough supply and markets went up the roof .... his words .. need to react abit later .. we just delay our actions better.

Do look see look see lor. .. wait for confirmation lor.

[millionairemind]

Funny when oil prices head south.. the Nigerian pipeline gets attacked again??

Oil rises above $124 on Nigeria pipeline attack
Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:19am EDT
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose more than $1 to above $124 a barrel on Monday, supported by rebel attacks on the oil industry in major oil exporter Nigeria that renewed concern about supplies.

The main militant group in Nigeria's Delta region said it had attacked two Royal Dutch Shell pipelines. Shell said it halted some production due to the incident but declined to say how much.

"It's really just a little short-covering rally," said Christopher Bellew, broker at Bache Commodities. "It looks like the pattern of last week of rallies which are then sold into is going to be repeated."

U.S. crude rose $1.34 to $124.60 a barrel by 8:00 a.m. EDT, down from a high of $125.22. London Brent was up $1.42 to $125.94.

The incident in Nigeria followed the kidnapping of eight foreign oil workers last week and two bomb blasts in Istanbul on Sunday. No one has claimed responsibility for the Turkish attacks.

Oil has fallen over $23 from a record high of $147.27 on July 11, pressured by signs that record-high prices and slowing economies are curbing demand. Dealers said prices could still head lower for now.

"We now seem to be in the situation where every rally is being sold," said Glen Ward, joint head of commodities at ODL Securities in London.

"We feel that the trading community is not just liquidating long positions but also looking to establish shorts."

[kennynah]

last time, we already suspected that their finance department are LONG CL....

all part of their militant offense efforts....this is particularly called "economic offense"

[HengHeng]

i think CL would test 130 again near term before crashing.

[winston]

INTELLIGENCE: (USD) The US Senate is not likely to pass the bill

(USD) The US Senate is not likely to pass the bill aimed at curbing energy speculation prior to Congress' summer recess, Dem. Sen. & Chair of Comm. on Energy & Natural Resources says.

The Democrats and Republicans are seen deadlocked on the legislation as Republicans are pushing lifting the ban on offshore drilling and the Arctic Reserves, while Democrats oppose the move and are pushing for tapping into Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

[winston]

As oil nears 20 percent "bear" market, bulls unfazed
Wed Jul 30, 2008 3:40am EDT

U.S. gasoline falls below $4 first time in 8 weeks
Iran says oil could reach $500 on dollar, politics
U.S. house prices overvalued by up to 20 percent: IMF paper
Bill to rein in oil speculators wins test vote
Gasoline pump price dips as crude tumbles: government

By Jonathan Leff

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - As the rout in oil prices nears the 20 percent mark that for stocks would signal a bear market, many analysts offer a word of caution -- don't mistake a healthy correction for the end of a multi-year bull trend.

The 16 percent slump since its record-high close of $145.18 a barrel on July 14 could yet deepen to $100 a barrel, many analysts say, but equally many remain convinced that another surge to as-yet unconquered peaks may lie just months ahead.

"Maybe in financial markets 20 percent means the trend has changed, but in the case of commodities we are not really looking at it like that, commodities are based more on fundamentals," said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Astmax Co Ltd in Tokyo who regularly analyses charts for price direction.

The U.S. Dow Jones industrial average entered bear market territory -- marked by a 20 percent fall from a closing peak -- in late June, but similar setbacks in commodity markets have proven less prescient.

Those who might have mistaken oil's last deep fall -- a near 21 percent decline over four weeks to mid-January 2007 -- for a sustained pull-back paid dearly. Prices hit a low of $49.90 a barrel before nearly trebling over the next 18 months.

Dealers who trade on the basis of technical indicators are looking at more crucial figures, such as the 100-day moving average. Prices fell below that level on Tuesday for the first time since early February, hinting at more to come.

"The 20 percent retracement being an indicator of a bear market doesn't have quite the impact as pushing through the 100-day moving average at $122. That's what analysts and traders were really looking at," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director at U.S.-based options trader Hudson Capital Energy.

For Emori, a break below $117 to $119 could trigger a slide to around $100, but "even if that happens I don't think it will mean that the long-term bull trend will be finished."

Bullish long-term structural issues such as growing Asian demand and lackluster non-OPEC supply growth remain unresolved, market bulls argue, suggesting the market may have yet to see the highs, regardless of indicators on candlestick charts.

"We've seen a spectacular rise, so 20 percent is not a bear market at all," said Mark Pervan, commodities analyst at ANZ Bank. "This is really steam coming out of the market."

"We can't realistically expect it to remain around these levels with new demand coming into the market."

Crude oil is no stranger to some deep corrections during a six-year price boom that has lifted U.S. crude from around $20 a barrel at the start of 2002.

In early 2003, before the rally even hit its stride, prices collapsed from a pre-Iraq war peak of nearly $40 to below $25 a barrel. They hit the skids again in mid-2006, falling from a high above $78 to a January low of $49.90.

The market didn't make a new record high until August 1, just over 12 months after the previous peak.

While the market will almost certainly need a breather before attempting to scale $150 again, the increasing pace at which prices are rising and falling may suggest that the wait won't be as long as in the past.

"Hedge fund longs have now reversed their positions and are trading the market from the short side," said Kornafel.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see some recent profits booked and as potential hurricanes loom in the U.S. Gulf there could be a mad rush for the exit, pushing the market right back up again."