Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 23, 2012:-



Last Week for 3Q Window Dressing

It has been a good few weeks.

And if you were long, then you must be quite happy.

Anyway, there should be at least one more week of sunshine.

Not too sure what will happen after that but in this type of market, who really thinks more than a week ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$93 from US$99 last week from US$96 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ? Summer Driving is over.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1775 from US$1774 last week from US$1738 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Higher. US$3.77 from US$3.83 last week from US$3.64 the previous week.
.


Equities - Risk Off ?

1. US Equities - Lower. 1460 from 1466 last week from 1438 the previous week. Support at 1399 ? Resistance at .

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20735 from 20630 last week from 19802 the previous week. Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. Sold Dynam Japan..

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2027 from 2124 last week from 2128 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3070 from 3012 last week from 3025 the previous week. Sold Guoco Leisure..

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 9110 from 9159 last week from 8872 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk Off

1. JPY - Stronger. 78.17 from 78.40 last week from 78.23 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4902 from 2.4951 last week from 2.5159 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Weaker. 1.0461 from 1.0577 last week from 1.0385 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Weaker. 1.2815 from 1.2876 last week from 1.2844 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Weaker. 1.2974 from 1.3128 last week from 1.2818 the previous week.

6. HKD - Weaker. 7.7531 from 7.7520 last week from 7.7560 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 79.39 from 78.85 last week from 80.16 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 5.05% from 5.02% last week from 5.06% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Flat. 5.76% from 5.79% last week from 5.63% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.75% from 1.87% last week from 1.67% the previous week.


Risk-Off ?

1. Emerging Markets- Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Flat. HK$56b from HK$56b last week from HK$52b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Bullish.

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - If you want to play with fire, you first need to know how fast you can run


Others

1. Properties - Will there be a "greater fool", to buy that investment property off you ?

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Very tempting but it's 3Q Window Dressing and US Presidential Election time

3. Window Dressing - One more week

4. US Market Direction - Flat

The US Market has not been doing much for the past week.

The shorts would called it "Distribution".

However, the bulls would call it "Building a Base".

We shall see who's right.

Intuitively, I think that the market can still go higher.

However, I do not think that the risk vs reward now, is worth the bet.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own
risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

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[kennynah]

Why is it "risk off" forcurrencies leh?

[winston]

Why is it "risk off" for currencies leh?

USD and JPY, both "Risk-Off" currencies, are stronger.

EUR, AUD and HKD, all "Risk-On" currencies, are weaker

Very clear signals that it was "Risk-Off" for currencies this past week.

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 30, 2012:-

New Beginning



It's going to be a new month and a new quarter.

3Q Window Dressing is over but there's still new money flowing in, from a new month.

Therefore, it may be still be a bit too early to short the market.

However, Earnings season is not here yet and neither is the US Presidential Election. So there could be some weakness in the interim, not to mention, that the clowns are back in Europe.

Intuitively, I think that it will only be a small dip and not a crash, so the risk vs reward may not be worth the effort.

Personally, I'm looking forward to this new month. Not only is my birthday coming up but this age is also supposedly a very important one for me. So I'm looking to great things to happen soon


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$92 from US$93 last week from US$99 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ? Summer Driving is over.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1774 from US$1775 last week from US$1774 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Flat. US$3.75 from US$3.77 last week from US$3.83 the previous week.
.


Equities - Risk Off ?

1. US Equities - Lower. 1441 from 1460 last week from 1466 the previous week. Support at 1399 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20840 from 20735 last week from 20630 the previous week. Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2086 from 2027 last week from 2124 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3060 from 3070 last week from 3012 the previous week. Added to Saizen Reit

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 8870 from 9110 last week from 9159 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk Off

1. JPY - Stronger. 77.99 from 78.17 last week from 78.40 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Flat. 2.4900 from 2.4902 last week from 2.4951 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Weaker. 1.0378 from 1.0461 last week from 1.0577 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Weaker. 1.2738 from 1.2815 last week from 1.2876 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Weaker. 1.2856 from 1.2974 last week from 1.3128 the previous week.

6. HKD - Weaker. 7.7544 from 7.7531 last week from 7.7520 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 79.89 from 79.39 last week from 78.85 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 5.09% from 5.05% last week from 5.02% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.94% from 5.76% last week from 5.79% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.63% from 1.75% last week from 1.87% the previous week.


Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets- Weaker. Outflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Weaker. HK$44b from HK$56b last week from HK$56b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Cautious

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - What will you be doing when there's a correction ? Buy on the Dip or try to Sell on the Rebound ?


Others

1. Properties - HK: More land set aside for Public Housing in NT

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Time to initiate some positions since 3Q Window Dressing is over ?

3. US Market Direction - Lower

I would probably be a bit more careful over this coming month, especially around the second to third week of October.

I'm expecting some weakness but not a crash.

I also do not have much on my watchlist so I will be taking a Trading Break.

Time to recharge and to look forward to new beginning later


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own
risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the
forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous
Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index
Page.

[helios]

Happy Birthday, Winston !

Important milestone ahead ?

[iam802]

Here's my 'observation from the ground':

1. Office space consolidation
Companies are giving up excess space that they have taken during the peak of Financial peak.

2. Restructuring
A number of companies worldwide that I have a chance to work with are going to restructure in the weeks/months ahead. Cause? Failure to hit revenue targets and changing business landscape including clients budget cut.

3. Cash on the sideline
Still lots of cash on the sideline. Look at some of the corporate bonds being purchased (or sold out). Less than 2% yield and investors, hedge fund are going ga-ga over it.

What do you think? Short first..go long for election and short again after that...before going long for year end?

[winston]

Short first....go long for election and short again after that...before going long for year end?

Dont know. I dont like to have a Trading Plan based on Timing.

I prefer to have my Trading Plan based on a Catalyst or Event.

I need to see the Catalyst or Event happen first, so that I can make a judgement on how strong the reaction will be, to that Catalyst or Event.

[winston]

TOL as of Oct 07, 2012:-



US Earnings Season

Earnings season is starting again next week.

And would this be the catalyst to move things higher, until the US Election ?

Or have they squeezed out everything already from the earnings, thru financial re-engineering ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$90 from US$92 last week from US$93 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Higher US$1783 from US$1774 last week from US$1775 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Flat. US$3.77 from US$3.75 last week from US$3.77 the previous week.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1461 from 1441 last week from 1460 the previous week. Support at 1399 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21012 from 20840 last week from 20735 the previous week. Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Holiday. 2086 from 2086 last week from 2027 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3108 from 3060 last week from 3070 the previous week. No Trade.

5. Japan Equities - Flat. 8863 from 8870 last week from 9110 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. JPY - Weaker. 78.67 from 77.99 last week from 78.17 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4854 from 2.4900 last week from 2.4902 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Weaker. 1.0186 from 1.0378 last week from 1.0461 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Weaker. 1.2519 from 1.2738 last week from 1.2815 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Weaker. 1.3031 from 1.2856 last week from 1.2974 the previous week.

6. HKD - Weaker. 7.7522 from 7.7544 last week from 7.7531 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.33 from 79.89 last week from 79.39 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Mixed

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 5.05% from 5.09% last week from 5.05% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.69% from 5.94% last week from 5.76% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.74% from 1.63% last week from 1.75% the previous week.


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets- Stronger. Inflows from Outflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$47b from HK$44b last week from HK$56b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Cautious

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - Are you swimming with the sharks or carps ?


Others

1. Properties - Singapore: Mortgages can only span 35 years and those wanting loans longer than 30 years can borrow only up to 60 per cent of the property price.

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Be patient. Wait for the sharp downside move first. Then only short on the rebound.

3. US Market Direction - Higher

Normally, things are quite safe, at the beginning of the earnings season.

And the "expert" analysts have already reduced expectations to a very low level again.

So will things come in much better than expectation again ?

Or would they actually be quite bad as predicted by the "expert" analysts ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own
risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-


Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.


Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Oct 14, 2012:-



Market Direction

It has been a tough few weeks.

You cant really tell whether it's going to continue grinding higher or suddenly drop.

You cant really tell whether the sharks are going to swallow you or leave you alone.

You cant even tell whether it's risk-on or risk-off.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$92 from US$90 last week from US$92 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Lower US$1755 from US$1783 last week from US$1774 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Lower. US$3.70 from US$3.77 last week from US$3.75 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Lower. 1429 from 1461 last week from 1441 the previous week. Support at 1399 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21136 from 21012 last week from 20840 the previous week. Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2105 from 2086 2 weeks ago from 2027 3 weeks ago. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3042 from 3108 last week from 3060 the previous week. No Trade.

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 8534 from 8863 last week from 8870 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. JPY - Stronger. 78.43 from 78.67 last week from 77.99 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.5033 from 2.4854 last week from 2.4900 the previous week. Added to MYR holdings. Upcoming GE a concern. And the MYR normally strengthens during Year End and CNY, when the Malaysian workers, changed their SGD into MYR after getting their bonuses. One can also have a feel of things, just by looking at the action at the money changers in JB.

3. AUD to USD - Stronger. 1.0238 from 1.0186 last week from 1.0378 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Flat. 1.2513 from 1.2519 last week from 1.2738 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Weaker. 1.2957 from 1.3031 last week from 1.2856 the previous week.

6. HKD - Stronger. 7.7517 from 7.7522 last week from 7.7544 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7510 - 7.7972. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 79.68 from 79.33 last week from 79.89 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.98% from 5.05% last week from 5.09% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.63% from 5.69% last week from 5.94% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.66% from 1.74% last week from 1.63% the previous week.

4. Bank of Korea cut interest rates by 25 bps to 2.75%


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets- Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$50b from HK$47b last week from HK$44b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Cautious


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

3. Risk Management - So where's the risk now ?

4. Properties - Is the risk vs reward, in your favor ?

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

6. US Market Direction - Lower

As parroted on CNBC, this is the most hated stock market rally.

Everyone is expecting a correction but there's only a slight dip.

If it's not going to crash then maybe it's going to continue to grind higher.

However, do you dare to buy at this time ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own
risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Oct 21, 2012:-





Market Direction

So where are we, on this chart ?

Relief ? Optimism ? Enthusiasm ? Exhilaration ?

Euphoria ? Unease ? Denial ?

If you are not able to get something basic like that correct, what chance do you have of knowing what's the Market Direction ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$90 from US$92 last week from US$90 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Lower US$1722 from US$1755 last week from US$1783 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Lower. US$3.63 from US$3.70 last week from US$3.77 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Flat. 1433 from 1429 last week from 1461 the previous week. Support at 1399 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21552 from 21136 last week from 21012 the previous week. 21,300 taken out. Next Resistance at 21,700. Support at 18,900. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2128 from 2105 last week from 2086 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3049 from 3042 last week from 3108 the previous week. Bought Biosensors.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9003 from 8534 last week from 8863 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. JPY - Weaker. 79.37 from 78.43 last week from 78.67 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4980 from 2.5033 last week from 2.4854 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Stronger. 1.0355 from 1.0238 last week from 1.0186 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Stronger. 1.2621 from 1.2513 last week from 1.2519 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Stronger. 1.3022 from 1.2957 last week from 1.3031 the previous week.

6. HKD - Stronger. 7.7504 from 7.7517 last week from 7.7522 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7505 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.62 from 79.68 last week from 79.33 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.77% from 4.98% last week from 5.05% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.37% from 5.63% last week from 5.69% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.76% from 1.66% last week from 1.74% the previous week.

4. Thailand cut interest rates by 25 bps to 2.75%


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets- Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$55b from HK$50b last week from HK$47b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Complacent or Unease ?


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

3. Risk Management - Can you accept a 10% to 15% drop in your portfolio ?

4. Properties - HK: Levy on Mortgages for Non-Residents ?

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Set-up coming up ?

6. US Market Direction: Friday - Lower

The 205 point drop caught a lot of participants by surprise.

But why would you be surprised, when the market has gone up so much and that earnings are not that great ?

The optimists would say that it's a buying opportunity.

The pessimists are saying that this is the beginning of the set-up, to short the market.

As I would like to think that I'm neither an optimist or pessimist, I will try to stay flexible and continue to look for any special situation to trade.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.