Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[winston]

TOL as of February 26, 2012:-




Resistance - Part 2

We are now approaching the 9th week of the rally.

And we are getting close to the top end of the resistance on the S&P 500.

Would there be a break-out or would there be a reversal once it reach 1375 ?



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$110 from US$104 last week from US$99 the previous week.

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1773 from US$1723 last week from US$1717 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Stronger. US$35.35 from US$33.25 last week from US$33.51 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Commodities - Longest rally in 10 months

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2440 from 2357 last week from 2352 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2530 ?

6. HK Equities - Stronger. 21492 from 20784 last week from 20757 the previous week. Resistance at 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? Sold another 1/3 Rexlot. Left with 1/3.

7. Spore Equities - Flat. 2978 from 3001 last week from 2960 the previous week. No Trade

8. US Equities - Stronger. 1366 from 1361 last week from 1343 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1375 ? Will there be a break-out ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 9647 from 9384 last week from 8947 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9965 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 80.58 from 79.09 last week from 77.59 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 80.63

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.3994 from 2.4221 last week from 2.4026 the previous week. Buying MYR on dips. Am concern out the upcoming GE.

13. AUD - Flat. 1.0700 from 1.0721 last week from 1.0673 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Stronger. 1.3447 from 1.3147 last week from 1.3187 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.483% from 5.576% last week from 6.61% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Weaker. 78.36 from 79.38 last week from 79.11 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - Have you been getting calls and sms from your friendly real estate agent ?

18. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD 7.755 from 7.7539 last weekk from 7.7564 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX at HK$66b from HK$66b last week from HK$75b the previous week.

What will happen after Feb 29, after the second LTRO ?

19. Sentiment - Bulls are still charging

20. Risk Management - Where's the Risk now ? Europe is passe. Iran ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Nothing much will really change if you do not check things for the next few months

22. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

23. Deleveraging - Good time for the IBs to deleverage

24. Interest Rates - Everyone seems to be lowering interest rates, despite the high prices of Commodities

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - Stronger

The show has still not started.

So we still do not know whether it's a "horror show" or an "action movie".

Normally, I do not pay attention to the announcement on the screen, on where the emergency exit is.

However, this time I have counted the number of rows, between me and the emergency exit.

Let the show begin ....



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[Aspellian]

TOL as of February 26, 2012:-


The show has still not started.

So we still do not know whether it's a "horror show" or an "action movie".

Normally, I do not pay attention to the announcement on the screen, on where the emergency exit is.

However, this time I have counted the number of rows, between me and the emergency exit.

Let the show begin ....

Hi Winston, you are in the cinema waiting for the show to start already? I left the recent-mini action show recently. Now am waiting for the next horrow show to screen... wonder whether there will be any or is it the bull run movie sequel that will be shown...

[winston]

TOL as of March 04, 2012:-


Breakout or Breakdown at 1375 ?





We are now approaching the 10th week of the rally.

And after three weeks, we still have not been able to reach 1375 on the S&P 500.

The Bull is looking tired but maybe it's taking a rest before the final push towards the tape.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$107 from US$110 last week from US$104 the previous week.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1711 from US$1773 last week from US$1723 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$34.74 from US$35.35 last week from US$33.25 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Commodities - Will Wall Street be able to retain their commodity warehouses, storage tanks and other hard assets ? And what will happen if they are forced to sell them away ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2461 from 2440 last week from 2357 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2530 ?

6. HK Equities - Flat. 21562 from 21492 last week from 20784 the previous week. Resistance at 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? No Trade

7. Spore Equities - Stronger. 2993 from 2978 last week from 3001 the previous week. No Trade

8. US Equities - Flat. 1369 from 1366 last week from 1361 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1375 ? Will there be a break-out ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 9777 from 9647 last week from 9384 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9965 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 81.80 from 80.58 last week from 79.09 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 81.88

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Flat. 2.3994 from 2.3994 last week from 2.4221 the previous week. Buying MYR on dips. Am concern out the upcoming GE.

13. AUD - Flat. 1.0733 from 1.0700 last week from 1.0721 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Weaker. 1.3197 from 1.3447 last week from 1.3147 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.907% from 5.483% last week from 5.576% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Stronger. 79.40 from 78.36 last week from 79.38 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - A cruise ship needs some time to change direction and so does the property market.

18. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD 7.7589 from 7.7550 last week from 7.7539 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX at HK$66b from HK$66b last week from HK$66b the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Are the bulls beginning to feel tired ?

20. Risk Management - What will you be doing on the next sharp correction ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - It's interesting to see GS and BAC downgrading the U.S. GDP to 1.8% from 2.2% while ECRI is seeing a recession ahead, while the stock market is grinding higher on supposedly better economic numbers.

22. Hedge Funds - How will the investigations by the FBI, affect the industry ?

23. Deleveraging - Have the IBs been deleveraging into this rally ?

24. Interest Rates - Low interest rates for the rest of this year ?

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Window Dressing - First Quarter closing coming up

28. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - May take a short position after the 1Q Window Dressing season

29. Market Direction - Flat

It's really boring watching a trendless market.

When you are expecting it to collapse, it keeps on treading water.

And when you are expecting it to charge forward, it takes a rest.

In the meantime, I have been trying to clean up the Watch-List.

However, I did not find anything that I like, so it's back to the waiting ...

Intuitively, I think there would be one more charge forward, due to money from a New Month and later, some Window Dressing


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy
or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of
maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of March 11, 2012:-

Are we getting the "M" now ?



The drop on Tuesday caught many market participants by surprise.

Although the market subsequently recovered the losses, Sentiment has being affected.

Some market participants are already thinking about selling while they still have the chance.

However, the die-hard bulls think that it's a buying opportunity ..


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Flat. US$107 from US$107 last week from US$110 the previous week. Vested thru a Put Warrant on CNOOC.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1706 from US$1711 last week from US$1773 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Flat. US$34.24 from US$34.74 last week from US$35.35 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Grains - Global inventories of wheat and soybeans are falling more than forecast, while U.S. corn reserves head to a 16-year low, as farmers fail to keep pace with rising demand for food, livestock feed and biofuel

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2440 from 2461 last week from 2440 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2530 ?

6. HK Equities - Weaker. 21086 from 21562 last week from 21492 the previous week. Resistance at 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? Bought Put warrants on the HSI, CNOOC and Ping An

7. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2963 from 2993 last week from 2978 the previous week. Subscribed to the rights of Global Investments

8. US Equities - Flat. 1371 from 1369 last week from 1366 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1375 ? Will there be a break-out ? Bought S&P Inverse ETF

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 9930 from 9777 last week from 9647 last week from 9384 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9965 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 81.80 from 80.58 last week from 79.09 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 81.88

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4041 from 2.3994 last week from 2.3994 the previous week. Am buying MYR on dips but I'm also concern about their upcoming GE.

13. AUD - Weaker. 1.0575 from 1.0733 last week from 1.0700 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Weaker. 1.3122 from 1.3197 last week from 1.3447 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.84% from 4.91% last week from 5.48% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Stronger. 80.00 from 79.40 last week from 78.36 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - Why would you be buying at this point in time ?

18. Liquidity - Stronger.

a. Flows: HKD 7.7573 from HKD 7.7589 last week from 7.7550 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

b. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX at HK$79b from HK$66b last week from HK$66b the previous week. However, this week's turnover includes the placement by AIA.

19. Sentiment - Weaker. The drop on Tuesday caught many people by surprise.

20. Risk Management - Time to take some risk off the table

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Does it feel like a recovery to you ?

22. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

23. Deleveraging - Why deleverage when you can borrow at 1% ?

24. Interest Rates / Reserve Ratios - The Reserve Bank of India reduced the cash reserve ratio to 4.75 percent from 5.5 percent.

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Window Dressing - First Quarter closing starting soon

28. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Bought some Put Warrants as well as some S&P Inverse ETF

29. US Market Direction - Flat

The S&P 500 has been trying to pierce thru 1375 for the 2nd week now.

And the Chinese projection of 7.5% growth did not help things on Tuesday.

Neither did the Australian Trade Deficit.

Most of the indicators above are either Flat or Weaker.

Are you ready for the "M" ?



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[cif5000]

Subscribed to the rights of Global Investments

Can go to the ATM already meh?

[winston]

Ha Ha ... I dont know. I just leave the Rights order with my remisier. I should really see whether the price continues to be above the Rights price...

[winston]

TOL as of March 18, 2012:-




Respecting Mr. Market

The S&P 500 has pierced thru 1375 convincingly.

So it looks like there wont be a "M" this time

And that means that I should not be be shorting the market until there's a parabolic move or a sharp spike downwards.

But wasn't that a parabolic move last Tuesday ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Flat. US$107 from US$107 last week from US$107 the previous week. Vested thru a Put Warrant on CNOOC. And if Israel decide to attack Iran, I can kiss this Put Warrant goodbye

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1655 from US$1706 last week from US$1711 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Weaker. US$32.51 from US$34.24 last week from US$34.74 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Grains - Corn and soybeans extended rallies to the highest prices since September, on speculation that China may boost purchases

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2405 from 2440 last week from 2461 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2530 ?

6. HK Equities - Stronger. 21318 from 21086 last week from 21562 the previous week. Resistance at 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? Sold Ping An Put Warrant.

7. Spore Equities - Stronger. 3011 from 2963 last week from 2993 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities - Stronger. 1404 from 1371 last week from 1369 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1375 piered thru convincingly.

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 10130 from 9930 last week from 9777 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 9965 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 83.45 from 81.80 last week from 80.58 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 83.83. Repatriation season coming up.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4304 from 2.4041 last week from 2.3994 the previous week. Am buying MYR on dips but I'm also concern about their upcoming GE.

13. AUD - Stronger. 1.0594 from 1.0575 last week from 1.0733 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Stronger. 1.3176 from 1.3122 last week from 1.3197 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 4.86% from 4.84% last week from 4.91% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Weaker. 79.77 from 80.00 last week from 79.40 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - Premier Wen's comments on Chinese Properties will probably dampen things for another 6 months.

18. Liquidity - Weaker.

a. HKD - Weaker. 7.7631 from 7.7589 last week from 7.7550 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

b. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX weaker at HK$64b from HK$79b last week from HK$66b the previous week. However, last week's turnover includes the placement by AIA.

19. Sentiment - Confused Chase, Sell, Hold or Short ?

20. Risk Management - How much cash do you have to buy on the next correction ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Leaving the ICU, does not mean leaving the hospital

22. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

23. Deleveraging - How would a three-notch downgrade, affect the Investment Banks ?

24. Interest Rates / Reserve Ratios - Vietnam cut their refinancing rate -- which it charges on its loans to commercial banks -- to 14 percent from 15 percent.

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Window Dressing - Cant you see the activities ?

28. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No new positions. Need to respect Mr. Market

29. US Market Direction - Stronger

Mr. Market wants to go up.

So it's better for me to not go against HIM.

And I should really respect him until the 1Q Window Dressing is over and then wait for the start of the US Earnings season.

As for my existing Puts, I will probably keep them. They are there to help me feel the market action. Their position size is much smaller than my normal positions.

Need to also remind myself that I should not back up the truck too early. Or maybe this time, I should not be backing up the truck at all, in case Helicopter Ben & his friends, decide to do another Twist...


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy
or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of
maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[Aspellian]

Hi Winston,

for US equities - u use S&P as a guage - but not Dow and Nasdaq. cos this rally seems to be very Nasdaq driven. your tots on this?

[winston]

Hi Aspellian,

I dont really follow the US market that closely now.

I have been monitoring the S&P 500 for a while, as it's a broad enough index unlike the Dow.

As I'm not really a techie, I also dont really know most of the stocks on Nasdaq.

I read somewhere that actually it's just enough to follow AAPL. If AAPL drops, the index would be affected due to it's heavy weighting.

Take care,
Winston

[Aspellian]

noted. tks for your reply